Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting

MARCH 15-17, 2017 THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY MARVIN CENTER, WASHINGTON, D.C. SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS Indiana University

#1 ranked MPA program (tied) out of 272

#1 Public Finance & Budgeting #1 Environmental Policy & Management #1 Nonprot Mangement #29,000 square feet of new space in SPEA’s new Paul H. O’Neill Graduate Center

#32,000+ alumni #90 full-time members of a large and interdisciplinary faculty, including:

John D. Graham, Dean David Good

Kerry Krutilla Denvil Duncan

spea.indiana.edu

2 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis TABLE OF CONTENTS

Sponsors...... 4 Welcome Letter...... 5 2017 Organizational Affiliates...... 6 2017 Premium Members...... 7 Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis Overview...... 8 SBCA Membership...... 9 Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis Overview...... 10 Conference and Workshop Schedule – Overview...... 13 Conference Schedule – Detailed...... 14 Marvin Center Floor Plan...... 30 Conference Logistics...... 31

Thank you to our founding institution:

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 3 CONFERENCE SPONSORS

Conference support is provided by:

4 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis WELCOME

Dear friends and colleagues, Welcome to the 2017 Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis Annual Conference and Meeting! We have 46 excellent sessions planned -- our largest number ever -- and look forward to exploring many important and interesting issues. The Society continues to grow and flourish thanks to your support. In addition to the panels, we hope you enjoy networking at our evening receptions on Wednesday through Friday. At lunch on Thursday we will welcome keynote speaker, Katharine G. Abraham, Professor of Economics and Survey Methodology, University of Maryland and Chair, Commission on Evidence-Based Policymaking. She will speak on the topic of “Improving the Evidence Base for Government Decisions.” On Friday, we will convene a meeting of our membership during lunch, which will include discussion of our plans for continued growth. Please feel free to contact any of us with your suggestions and ideas. We are enormously indebted to the members of the 2017 Program Committee, whose hard work contributed to the varied and interesting program:

• Daniel Acland (University of California, Berkeley) • Anne Smith (NERA Economic Consulting) • Luc Baumstark (University of Lyon) • Fran Sussman (Independent Consultant) • Margaret Kuklinski (University of Washington) • Judy Temple (University of Minnesota) • David Luskin (U.S. Department of Transportation) • Craig Thornton (Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.) • John Mendeloff (University of Pittsburgh) • Gary VanLandingham (Florida State University) • George Parsons (University of Delaware) • W. Kip Viscusi (Vanderbilt University) • Emile Quinet (École des Ponts ParisTech) • Jack Wells (U.S. Department of Transportation - former) • Lisa A. Robinson (Harvard University) • Darcy White (The Pew Charitable Trusts) • Aylin Sertkaya (Eastern Research Group, Inc.)

We would also like to thank the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, American Chemistry Council, ExxonMobil and the GW Regulatory Studies Center for helping to sponsor this conference. We also thank our Organizational Affiliates, Premium Members and individual donors, who are listed on the following pages. And finally, we would like to thank you, SBCA’s members and participants, for your many contributions to the Society, to this conference, and to the field more generally. We hope that we will see you at future conferences and other Society functions. Sincerely,

Lynn A. Karoly Donald Kenkel Susan E. Dudley President, Conference Chair Vice President Past President

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 5 2017 ORGANIZATIONAL AFFILIATES PATRON

The Brattle Group

Econometrica, Inc.*

The George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center*

Industrial Economics, Incorporated*

Mathematica Policy Research*

NERA Economic Consulting*

Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Adminstration, The George Washington University

* Charter affiliates

SUPPORTER

Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington

ExxonMobil*

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, University of Virginia

Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley

Indiana University School of Public and Environmental Affairs

Institute on Health Economics, Health Behaviors and Disparities, Cornell University

Labour Program, Employment and Social Development Canada

LaFollette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison

University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy

University of Kentucky Gatton College Department of Economics

Vanderbilt University’s Ph.D. Program in Law & Economics

6 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis PREMIUM MEMBERS

Luc Baumstark Kerry Krutilla

Richard Belzer R. Jeffrey Lewis

Ronald Bird David Luskin

Glenn C. Blomquist Randall Lutter

Sharon Brown-Hruska Paul Mwebaze

Mark Cohen Lisa A. Robinson

David Corderi Novoa Christoph Siedler

Tony Cox Stephanie Souche Le Corvec

Kenneth Goettel Craig Thornton

James K. Hammitt W. Kip Viscusi

Arnold Harberger David L. Weimer

Antonio Huerta-Goldman Jack Wells

Lynn Karoly John Yinger

Donald S. Kenkel

SAVE THE DATE Annual Conference and Meeting March 14-16, 2018 | Washington, DC

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 7 SOCIETY FOR BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS

Founded in 2007, the Society is an international organization dedicated to the advancement, exchange of ideas, and research related to benefit-cost analysis (BCA), cost-effectiveness analysis, risk-benefit analysis, applied welfare economic analysis, and damage assessment.

The Society’s primary goals are:

• Bring together individuals from diverse disciplines and from different countries and provide them opportunities to foster collaboration and exchange information, ideas, and methodologies; Lynn A. Karoly • Encourage applications of benefit-cost analysis and applied welfare President economics, and promote dialogue between practitioners;

• Facilitate the development and dissemination of knowledge about benefit-cost and applied welfare analysis;

• Develop and update standards of practice; and

• Foster methods to improve communication and consideration of benefit-cost methods and results.

2017 BOARD OF DIRECTORS: • Lynn Karoly, President (RAND Corporation)

• Donald Kenkel, Vice President (Cornell University)

• Susan E. Dudley, Past President (GW Regulatory Studies Center)

• Craig Thornton, Treasurer (Mathematica Policy Research)

• Ali Gungor, Assistant Treasurer (U.S. Coast Guard)

• Randall Lutter, Past Treasurer (University of Virginia and Resources for the Future)

• Elisabeth Gilmore, Secretary (Clark University)

• Mark Cohen (Vanderbilt University and Resources for the Future)

• Massimo Florio (University of Milan)

• David Luskin (Federal Highway Administration)

• Emile Quinet (Ecole des Ponts-ParisTech)

• Fran Sussman (Independent Consultant)

• Gary VanLandingham (Florida State University)

8 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis MEMBERSHIP

The Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis has a continuously growing membership working in numerous policy areas, including scholars and practitioners from academia, nonprofits, businesses, and government agencies around the world.

The table below summarizes the benefits associated with each level of annual organizational and individual participation:

To join the SBCA, please visit http://benefitcostanalysis.org/membership.

Membership information and forms will also be available at the conference registration table.

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 9 JOURNAL OF BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS

The JBCA is Attracting Attention • 2016 World Bank monograph by Urvashi Narain and Chris Sall titled Methodology for Valuing the Health Impacts of Air Pollution cited the 2011 article “The Income Elasticity of the Value per Statistical Life: Transferring Estimates Between High and Low Income Populations” by James K. Hammitt and Lisa A. Robinson. • Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of Management and Budget 2015 Report to Congress on the Benefits and Costs of Federal Regulations and Agency Compliance with the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act cited two 2015 articles: “Retrospective and Prospective Benefit-Cost Analyses of U.S. Anti-Smoking Policies” by David Cutler et al. and “Valuing Regulations Affecting Addictive or Habitual Goods” by Lawrence Jin et al. • Wall Street Journal (February 13, 2017) interviewed Alison De Rossi and Joni Hersch about their 2016 article “The Private and Social Benefits of Double Majors.” • Nearly 12,000 articles were downloaded from the Cambridge/JBCA website last year. • JBCA has been selected for Thomson Reuters’ Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI) while our application for the SSCI is being considered. Coverage began with JBCA 7,1 (Spring 2016). Selection for the ESCI does not confer an impact factor, but it is an encouraging, positive signal about eventual selection for the SSCI.

Best Articles for 2016 The Editors are pleased to recognize noteworthy work published in 2016. Impressed with the diligence with which Best Article Award Committee members Glenn Jenkins, Clark Nardinelli, and Fran Sussman worked, we decided take their recommendation and recognize three outstanding articles. Congratulations to the authors! • B. Douglas Bernheim “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: A Unified Approach to Behavioral Welfare Economics” 7,1 (Spring) A critical paper for practitioners to read in order to understand the underpinnings of the normative implications of BCA and the limitations of the valuation techniques. • W. Kip Viscusi and Ted Gayer “Rational Benefit Assessment for an Irrational World: Toward a Behavioral Transfer Test” 7,1 (Spring) The proposal is a bridge for analysts to use to cover the gap between behavioral failures and the consumer sovereignty underlying benefits assessment in benefit-cost analysis. • Deven Carlson, Joseph Ripberger, Hank Jenkins-Smith, Carol Silva, Kuhika Gupta, Robert Berrens, and Benjamin Jones “Contingent Valuation and the Policymaking Process: An Application to Used Nuclear Fuel in the United States” 7,3 (Fall) For public policy decisions where those who prefer a current policy, and cannot ignore or opt out of the policy change, would be hurt if an alternative is imposed on them. The information derived by using the methodology developed by the authors will be highly relevant for measuring relative willingness to pay of stakeholders.

Editors Glenn C. Blomquist and William H. Hoyt and Managing Editor Mary Kokoski continue with abundant support. Thanks in particular go to Editorial Board members, authors, reviewers, the MacArthur Foundation, and all who contribute to growing the JBCA.

10 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis VOLUME X ISSUE X

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THURSDAY, MARCH 16 FRIDAY, MARCH 17

12 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOPS

Wednesday, March 15

8:00 – 9:00 Registration for morning workshops (Marvin 3rd Floor Lobby) 9:00 – 12:30 Professional Development Workshops, AM Session Retrospective Benefit-Cost Analysis (Marvin 310) 12:30 – 1:30 Lunch (for those registered for AM and PM sessions) (Marvin 302) 1:00 – 1:30 Afternoon Workshop Registration (Marvin 3rd Floor Lobby) 1:30 – 5:00 Professional Development Workshops, PM Session Using Experts to Estimate Parameter Values in BCA (Marvin 308) Causal Analytics for Benefit-Cost Analysts: What Effects do Policies Cause? (Marvin 310) 5:00 – 6:30 Opening Reception (registered workshop & conference participants, sponsored by ExxonMobil) (Marvin 302)

CONFERENCE SCHEDULE OVERVIEW

Conference registration includes meals (breakfast, break refreshments, lunch and evening receptions) plus other activities listed below on March 16 and 17, as well as the opening reception on March 15.

Conference Day 1 - Thursday, March 16 8:00 – 9:00 Registration (Marvin 3rd Floor Lobby) & Breakfast (Grand Ballroom) 9:00 – 10:30 Session 1 10:30 – 10:45 Break (Grand Ballroom) 10:45 – 12:15 Session 2 12:15 – 2:00 Luncheon and Keynote Address (sponsored by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation) (Grand Ballroom & Continental Ballroom) 2:00 – 3:30 Session 3 3:30 – 3:45 Break (Continental Ballroom) 3:45 – 5:15 Session 4 5:30 – 7:30 Networking Reception (Grand Ballroom)

Conference Day 2 - Friday, March 17 8:00 – 9:00 Registration (Marvin 3rd Floor Lobby) & Breakfast (Grand Ballroom) 9:00 – 10:30 Session 5 10:30 – 10:45 Break (Grand Ballroom) 10:45 – 12:15 Session 6 12:15 – 2:00 Luncheon and Annual Meeting of the SBCA Membership (sponsored by the American Chemistry Council) (Grand Ballroom & Continental Ballroom) 2:00 – 3:30 Session 7 3:30 – 3:45 Break (Continental Ballroom) 3:45 – 5:15 Session 8 5:15 – 6:30 Closing Reception (sponsored by the GW Regulatory Studies Center) (Grand Ballroom)

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 13 THURSDAY, MARCH 16 SESSION 1 9:00 - 10:30 AM

Room A Room B Room C Room D Room E Room F A.1: Valuing Mortality B.1: Estimating C.1: Non-Market Valuation D.1: Strengthening Benefit-Cost E.1: Estimating Benefits F.1: Incorporating Risk Reductions in Economic Values: of Environmental Goods Analysis of Early Childhood and Costs of Risk Economic Evaluation Low- and Middle- Methods and Using Revealed and Stated Interventions Through High- Interventions in Face of into the Portfolio of Income Countries: Applications Preference Methods Quality, High-Utility Cost Uncertainty Private Foundations Addressing Data Gaps Analysis (Roundtable) and Inconsistencies Chair: Frits Bos, CPB Chair: Steve Newbold, U.S. Chair: Elisabeth Gilmore, (Roundtable) Netherlands Bureau for Environmental Protection Agency Chair: Jonathan Belford, Child Clark University Chair: Lynn A. Karoly, Economic Policy Analysis Trends RAND Corporation Chair: Lisa A. Robinson, Presentations: Discussant: Laura Stanley, Harvard University Presentations: Discussant: Phaedra Corso, U.S. Environmental Panelists: External Scope and Adding-Up University of Georgia Protection Agency Panelists: Sensitivity to Scope in Tests for Stated Preference Thomas Forissier, Bill Contingent Valuation Choice-Experiment Surveys; Presentations: Presentations: and Melinda Gates Nils Axel Braathen, OECD and Discrete Choice Chris Moore*, U.S. Environmental Foundation Experiments: Results Protection Agency Issues in Estimating Costs of Uncertainty Evaluation Maureen Cropper, Based on Valuing Health Early Childhood Interventions: in DOT and EPA RIAs of Cindy Esposito Lamy, University of Maryland Risk Reductions; Henrik Measuring the Effects of An Example from the REDI Lifesaving Regulations; Robin Hood Foundation Andersson*, Toulouse Offshore Wind Projects on Intervention; Damon Jones*, David Good* and Kerry James K. Hammitt, Harvard School of Economics Beach Use and Tourism on the Pennsylvania State University Krutilla, Indiana University Woody McCutchen, University East Coast of the United States; Edna McConnell Clark Hedonic Vices: Fixing George Parsons*, University of Dynamic Cost Analysis of Risks and Benefits of Foundation Alan Krupnick, Resources Inferences about Delaware Evidence-Based Family Services Reducing Ozone Exposure for the Future Willingness-to-Pay in in a Randomized Controlled after Re-Evaluating Most Jon Baron, Laura and Recent House-Value The Use of Social Media Data Trial; D. Max Crowley*, RecentChamber Study John Arnold Foundation Urvashi Narain, World Studies; John Yinger*, for Nonmarket Valuation; Pennsylvania State University Data; R. Jeffrey Lewis*, Bank Syracuse University Yongjie Ji*, Iowa State University ExxonMobil Biomedical Efficient and Effective Early Sciences, Inc.; and Richard W. Kip Viscusi, Vanderbilt Including the The Value of Bird Biodiversity Childhood Home Visiting Belzer, Regulatory Checkbook University Perspective of the to eBirders: Exploring Programs for High Risk Incarcerated Person in Citizen Science Data using a Families: A Cost Analysis of Adaptive Benefit-Cost Jail CBAs; Chris Mai*, Vera Recreational Site Choice Model; Promoting First Relationships; Analysis for Changing a Institute of Justice Sonja Kolstoe*, Salisbury University Margaret Kuklinski*, University of Few of Many Causes; Tony Washington Cox*, Cox Associates THURSDAY, MARCH 16 SESSION 1 9:00 - 10:30 AM

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 15 THURSDAY, MARCH 16 SESSION 2 10:45 AM - 12:15 PM

Room A Room B Room C Room D Room E Room F Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 302 Marvin 301 Marvin 308 Marvin 310 A.2: Assessing Approaches B.2: Evidence-based Policy C.2: Issues in Benefit- D.2: Role of Cost Benefit E.2: Applications of F.2: Risk, Competition, and to Updating the (Roundtable) Cost Analysis Applications Analysis in Decision Benefit-Cost Analysis in Procurement Design Social Cost of Carbon in Energy and the Making in OECD Countries Developing Countries (Roundtable) Chair: Craig Thornton, Environment Chair: Aylin Sertkaya, Mathematica Policy Chair: Fran Sussman, Chair: Michael Toman, Eastern Research Group, Inc. Chairs: Casey Wichman and Research Chair: Timothy Brennan, Independent Consultant World Bank Richard Newell, Resources Resources for the Future Presentations: for the Future Panelists: Discussants: Chris Dockins, Discussant: Elisabeth Discussant: Charles U.S. Environmental Gilmore, Clark University The Inefficiency of Risk Panelists: Tony Cox, Cox Associates Griffiths, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and Pricing in PPPs; Dejan Protection Agency Emile Quinet, Ecole des Presentations: Makovsek*, International Max Auffhammer, University Sandy Davis, Bipartisan Policy Ponts-ParisTech Transport Forum; Marian of California, Berkeley Center Presentations: Economic Consequences Moszoro, George Mason Presentations: of an Infectious Disease University Maureen Cropper, University Nicholas Hart, Commission Climate Change Event for a Small, Island of Maryland on Evidence-Based Adaptation: Benefit- A General Survey of CBA Economy; Jamison Pike*, A Decision-Making Model Policymaking Cost Analysis of Coastal in Decision Making in U.S. Centers for Disease for Procurement Design; Richard Newell, Resources for Flooding Hazard OECD Countries; Nils Axel Control and Prevention Adrian Bridge*, Queensland the Future Sofie Miller, The George Mitigation; Federico Garcia* Braathen*, OECD University of Technology Washington University and David Ryder*, ICF Performance Based William Pizer, Duke University International Looking Back at Social Financing and Improving How does PPP Contract Kathy Stack, Laura and John Discount Rates: The Girls’ Education: Lessons Design Respond Richard Schmalensee, Arnold Foundation Triple-Bottom-Line Influence of Papers, Learned in Zimbabwe; to Introduction of Massachusetts Institute of Benefits for Urban Presentations, Political Jordan Nanowski*, Uncertainty; Philippe Technology Resiliency Projects; Preconditions and Limestone Analytics; and Gagnepain* on behalf of David James Cottone* and Aaron Personalities on Policy; Bahman Kashi, Queen’s Martimort, Paris School of Henderson, Arcadis Ben Groom*, London School University Economics of Economics Benefits and Costs of On-Grid Solar PV Versus Authorizing the Use of Diesel Electricity Substances of Very High Generation In Sub- Concern under REACH; Saharan Africa: Matti Vainio*, European Economics And GHG Chemicals Agency Emissions; Glenn Jenkins*, Queen’s University and Eastern Mediterranean University; Saule Baurzhan, Eastern Mediterranean University

16 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis THURSDAY, MARCH 16 SESSION 2 10:45 AM - 12:15 PM

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 17 THURSDAY, MARCH 16 SESSION 3 2:00 - 3:30 PM

Room A Room B Room C Room D Room E Room F Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 302 Marvin 301 Marvin 308 Marvin 310 A.3: International B.3: Value of a Statistical C.3: Issues in Benefit-Cost D.3: Regulatory Review E.3: Benefit-Cost F.3: Issues in Benefit-Cost Approaches to Analyzing Life: Recent Advances Analysis of Energy and the and Benefit-Cost Analysis Analysis Applications Analysis of Research, Benefits and Costs of Environment in the States (Roundtable) in Transportation and Development, and Chemical Risk Policies Chair: Thomas Kniesner, Infrastructure Innovation (Roundtable) Claremont Graduate Chair: Ann Wolverton, U.S. Chair: Stuart Shapiro, University Environmental Protection Rutgers University Chair: Deborah Aiken, Chair: R. Jeffrey Lewis, Chair: Susan Dudley, Agency U.S. Department of ExxonMobil Biomedical The George Washington Discussant: Al McGartland, Panelists: Transportation Sciences, Inc. University U.S. Environmental Discussant: Fran Sussman, Protection Agency Independent Consultant Larry Getzler, Virginia Discussant: David Luskin, Discussant: Kathleen Panelists: Department of Planning and U.S. Department of Miller, U.S. Food and Drug Presentations: Presentations: Budget Transportation Administration Nils Axel Braathen, OECD Is Survival a Luxury Good? Consumer Willingness to Anca Grozav, North Carolina Presentations: Presentations: Jessica Coria, University of Income Elasticity and the Pay for Vehicle Attributes: Office of State Budget and Gothenburg Value per Statistical Life; What Do We Know?; Gloria Management Information Saves Lives: Human Capital Benefits of James K. Hammitt*, Harvard Helfand*, U.S. Environmental An Impact Evaluation of Big Science: Evidence from Joe Devlin, Environment & University Protection Agency David Sumner, Pennsylvania Automobile Crash Tests; Early Career Researchers Climate Change Canada Independent Regulatory Damien Sheehan-Connor*, at CERN; Massimo Florio*, Best Estimate Selection Re-Searching for Review Commission Wesleyan University University of Milan Matti Vainio, European Bias of Estimates of the Hidden Costs: Producer Chemicals Agency Value of a Statistical Life; Heterogeneity and Ben Witherell, New Estimation of Logistics Benefit Cost Analysis of W. Kip Viscusi*, Vanderbilt Adoption of Fuel-Saving Jersey Department of Cost Savings for a Multi- Research, Development University Vehicle Technologies; Environmental Protection Jurisdictional Freight and Innovation (RDI) Hsing-Hsiang Huang*, Oak Rail Project using a BCA Infrastructures - Strategy Estimating the Value of Ridge Institute for Science and Framework; Saravanya for Europe 2020; Kristina a Statistical Life in (the Education Sankarakumaraswamy*, Gogic*, Office of the Croatian Likely Many) Cases of University of Washington Ombudsman Reference Dependence; Benefit-Cost Analysis: Jack Knetsch*, Simon Fraser Problems with Product Addressing Uncertainty The Inclusion of Economic University Failures; Arthur Fraas*, in the Estimation of the Variables in Case Studies Resources for the Future; Benefits and Costs of of Biomedical Research and Sofie Miller*, The George Complex Transportation Impact; Sue Hamann*, Washington University Infrastructure Projects; National Institutes of Health Kenneth Kuhn*, RAND Corporation

18 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis THURSDAY, MARCH 16 SESSION 3 2:00 - 3:30 PM

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 19 THURSDAY, MARCH 16 SESSION 4 3:45 - 5:15 PM

Room A Room B Room C Room D Room E Room F Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 302 Marvin 301 Marvin 308 Marvin 310 A.4: Advice to B.4: Methodological Issues C.4: Economic Valuation D.4: Application of E.4: Issues in the Use of F.4: Considerations in Policymakers For in the Application of for Environment and Benefit-Cost Analysis Economic Evaluation in Developing High-Quality Interpreting Benefit-Cost Benefit-Cost Analysis Natural Resource Policy in Europe: Experiences, Public Sector Decision- Benefit-Cost Analysis Analysis (Roundtable) Challenges, and the making Estimates Chair: Lynn Karoly, RAND Chair: Robin Jenkins, U.S. Future Chair: Kerry Krutilla, Corporation Environmental Protection Chair: Margaret Kuklinski, Chair: Judy Temple, Indiana University Agency Chair: Daniel Perez, University of Washington University of Minnesota Discussant: Joseph Cordes, The George Washington Panelists: The George Washington Presentations: University Discussant: Gary Discussant: Lindsay University VanLandingham, Florida Abate, U.S. Small Business Susan Dudley, The George Practice What You Preach: Discussant: Bahman Kashi, State University Administration Washington University Presentations: The Effectiveness of Queen’s University Recreational Use Value Presentations: Presentations: Heidi King Distributionally Weighted Estimates in Policy Presentations: Cost-Benefit-Analysis: Analysis; Martha Rogers* Can Analysis Facilitate Understanding and Randall Lutter, University of A Three-Step Method, and Mark Berkman, The Trends in Non-Market Public Participation; Stuart Avoiding Pitfalls of Virginia and Resources for Merits and Limitations; Brattle Group Valuation in the UK; Ben Shapiro*, Rutgers University Benefit/Cost Analysis; the Future Thomas van der Pol*, CPB Groom*, London School of Ernest Forman*, The George Netherlands Bureau for Value of Reusing Economics Implementing Results Washington University Brian Mannix, The George Economic Policy Analysis Remediated Land as First: Adventures in Washington University Greenspace: A Benefit Evolution of BCA-based Capacity-building to Forecasting Affected Hurdle Rates, Declining Transfer Application to Decisionmaking – the Produce Benefit-Cost Populations for Benefit- Al McGartland, U.S. Discount Rates, and EPA’s Superfund Sites; Example of the Swedish Analysis for Policymaking; Cost Analyses; Douglas Environmental Protection Uncertain Opportunity Karen Sullivan, Achyut Kafle* Transport Sector; Gunnar Steven Lize*, The Pew Scheffler*, U.S. Coast Guard Agency Cost; Daniel Wilmoth*, U.S. and Jacqueline Waite, U.S. Lindberg*, Norwegian Charitable Trusts Small Business Administration Environmental Protection Institute of Transport Should CBAs Include a Agency Economics Unbundling Political and Correction for the Marginal Macroeconomic Effects Economic Rationality: A Excess Burden?; Frits Bos*, of Sterilized Intervention; Bad Air Days: On the BCA on Health Risks in Non-Parametric Approach CPB Netherlands Bureau for Yuxuan Huang*, The George Valuation of Air Quality France; Henrik Andersson*, Tested on Spain; Salvador Economic Policy Analysis Washington University Using Different Measures Toulouse School of Bertoméu-Sánchez*, ECARES - of Subjective Wellbeing; Economics, on behalf of Luc Université Libre de Bruxelles A Benefit-Cost Analysis of Kate Laffan* and Paul Dolan, Baumstark, University of the Multiplier Effect; Erik London School of Economics Lyon Rose*, Oregon State University

20 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis THURSDAY, MARCH 16 SESSION 4 3:45 - 5:15 PM

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 21 FRIDAY, MARCH 17 SESSION 5 9:00 - 10:30 AM

Room A Room B Room C Room D Room E Room F Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 302 Marvin 301 Marvin 308 Marvin 310 A.5: Benefit-Cost B.5: Benefit-Cost Analysis C.5: Applications of D.5: Applications of E.5: Economic Evaluation F.5: Evaluation and Ex-Post Analyses and Food Safety in Political Decision- Benefit-Cost Analysis Benefit-Cost Analysis Applications in Health Impact Assessment in the Regulations on Meat, making in Energy and the to Jobs and Transfer Care and Public Health EU – Methodology and Poultry and Egg Products Environment Programs Practice (Roundtable) Chair: Joe Devlin, Chair: Jamison Pike, U.S. Environment & Climate Chair and Discussant: Ann Chair: Weston Merrick, Centers for Disease Control Chair: Joseph Cordes, Chair: Flora Tsui, U.S. Change Canada Ferris, U.S. Environmental Minnesota Management and Prevention The George Washington Department of Agriculture Protection Agency and Budget University Discussant: Ronald Bird, Presentations: Panelists: U.S. Chamber of Commerce Presentations: Presentations: Discussant: Reeve Bull, Estimating the Monetary Administrative Conference of Richa Ajmera, U.S. Presentations: National Security Benefits Imagining a Tax System Benefits of Medicare the United States Department of Agriculture within the Renewable Fuel with Universal Basic Eligibility for Reducing the Michigan v. EPA and the Standard; Daniel Perez*, The Income; Kyle Rozema*, Symptoms of Dementia; Presentations: Sandra Hoffmann, U.S. Inescapable Normative George Washington University Northwestern University Robert Brent*, Fordham Department of Agriculture Nature of the Concept University Retrospective Evaluation of Cost; Daniele Bertolini*, The (r)Evolution of Non- A Benefit-Cost Analysis as a Key Component of Angelica Marrero, U.S. Ryerson University Energy Benefits in Energy of a Workforce Economic Losses the EU’s Better Regulation Department of Agriculture Efficiency; Christopher Development Program Associated with Oral Agenda; Geraldine Cost-Benefit Analysis, Chan*, Eversource Energy; for Disconnected Youth; Problems in the United Emberger*, European Policy Impacts, and Greg Clendenning, NMR Mithuna Srinivasan* and States - Using the National Commission Congressional Hearings; Group, Inc; Bruce Tonn, Sonam Gupta, Impaq Health Interview Survey, Joseph Ripberger* and Three3, Inc; and Beth Hawkins, International 2008; Uma Kelekar*, The European Parliament’s Deven Carlson*, University of Three3, Inc. Marymount University Scrutiny Toolbox for Oklahoma Evaluating the Iowa’s Transposition and Welfare Impact of High Quality Jobs Benefits and Costs of Implementation; Irmgard Analyzing the Effects of Electricity Subsidy Program; Zhong Jin*, Iowa Public Health Actions: Anglmayer*, European the Tarmac Delay Rule: Reforms: A Micro Model Department of Revenue Case Studies from CDC’s Parliament Data and Methodological Study; Syed Adnan Khalid*, Environmental Public Challenges; Deborah National University of Sciences Examining the Costs Health Tracking Grantees; Ex-Post Impact Assessment Aiken*, U.S. Department of & Technology and Benefits of Ying Zhou*, U.S. Centers at the European Transportation; Ali Gungor, Family Rewards 2.0; for Disease Control and Parliament; Sten Ramstedt*, U.S. Coast Guard; and Rayik A Conditional Cash Prevention European Parliament Samara, George Mason Transfer Program in Two University American Cities; Timothy Estimated Savings to Rudd*, MDRC Medicaid Obtained by Substituting Electronic for Tobacco-Based Cigarettes; Richard Belzer*, Regulatory Checkbook

22 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis FRIDAY, MARCH 17 SESSION 5 9:00 - 10:30 AM

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 23 FRIDAY, MARCH 17 SESSION 6 10:45 AM - 12:15 PM

Room A Room B Room C Room D Room E Room F Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 302 Marvin 301 Marvin 308 Marvin 310 A.6: Developing a B.6: Issues in Risk, C.6: Consequences of D.6: Applications of E.6: Issues in Valuing Costs F.6: Issues and Applications Reference Case for Uncertainty, and Environmental Policies Benefit-Cost Analysis in and Benefits in Health in Benefit-Cost Analysis of Benefit-Cost Analysis in Information for Employment and International Trade and Policy Transportation Projects Low- and Middle-Income Education Economic Development Countries (Roundtable/ Chair: Glenn Blomquist, Chair: Donald Kenkel, Chair: Douglas Scheffler, U.S. “Listening Session”) University of Kentucky Chair: George Parsons, Chair: Glenn Jenkins, Cornell University Coast Guard University of Delaware Queen’s University and Chair: James K. Hammitt, Discussant: Randall Lutter, Eastern Mediterranean Presentations: Discussant: Jack Wells, Harvard University University of Virginia / Presentations: University U.S. Department of Resources for the Future The PROMIS-Preference Transportation (former) Panelists: Employment and Presentations: (PROPr) Score: A New Presentations: Pollution Abatement: Health Utility Measure; Presentations: Lisa A. Robinson, Harvard A Nonparametric Cost Towards Meta Benefit- Barry Dewitt*, Carnegie Mellon University Applying VSL When Function Analysis; Carl Cost Analysis: The University The Criterion for Evaluating Persons Choose Risk Pasurka*, U.S. Environmental Case of Brexit; Aurelien Transportation Projects: Thomas Wilkinson, iDSI or Care about Risks Protection Agency Portuese*, Leicester De Economic Rents and Cost- Social Welfare Analysis; to Others: The Case Montfort University / King’s Benefit Analysis - Issues Omid M. Rouhani*, McGill David Wilson, Bill and of Commercial Space Air Quality and College College London and Application to Health University Melinda Gates Foundation Exploration; Timothy Attendance; John Voorheis*, and Energy Policy; Ken Brennan*, Resources for the U.S. Census Bureau Fukushima: U.S. Acks*, Cost-Benefit Group, LLC Ex-Post Studies of Future Response and the Short- and Environmental Valuation Transport Investments in Compensating Workers Term Impact on U.S.- & Cost-Benefit News France; Emile Quinet*, Ecole Behavioral Responses Who Lose Jobs Due to Japan Trade in Seafood; des Ponts-ParisTech, on behalf to Health Information Carbon Taxes: Lessons Aliya Sassi*, U.S. Food and Eliciting Individual of David Meunier, MINES and Warnings; Rosemarie from the Trade Adjustment Drug Administration Preferences for End-of-Life ParisTech Lavaty* and Carolyn Act; Craig Thornton*, Treatments; Susan Chilton*, Wolff*, U.S. Food and Drug Mathematica Policy Research A Portfolio-Wide Newcastle University A Tale of Two Cities and Administration Assessment of MCC’s Five Benefit-Cost Analyses: Economic Rates of Advanced Data Integration Australia’s Inland Rail The Value of a Statistical Return; Marissa Block* and for Epidemiologic Modeling between Melbourne and Life: Economics and Sandra Ospina*, Millennium in Benefit-Cost Analysis: Brisbane; David Luskin*, U.S. Politics; Ryan Bosworth*, Challenge Corporation A Case for Complex Department of Transportation Utah State University Behavioral Disorders; Xindi Institutional Capacity Hu*, Harvard University on Health Regulation, Key for Development and Global Trade; Carlos Santos-Burgoa*, The George Washington University

24 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis FRIDAY, MARCH 17 SESSION 6 10:45 AM - 12:15 PM

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 25 FRIDAY, MARCH 17 SESSION 7 2:00 - 3:30 PM

Room A Room B Room C Room D Room E Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 302 Marvin 301 Marvin 308 A.7: Developing Guidance B.7: Ex Ante and Ex Post C.7: Distributional Issues: D.7: Benefit-Cost Analysis E.7: Benefits and Costs in or Best Practices for Applications of Benefit- Applications in Energy and in Economic Development the Regulation of Financial Regulatory Impact Cost Analysis the Environment Markets Analysis (Roundtable) Chair: Julian Cristia, Inter- Chair: Richard Bruns, Chair: Kelly Maguire, U.S. American Development Chair: Heidi King Chair: Lisa Robinson, U.S. Food and Drug Environmental Protection Bank Harvard University Administration Agency Presentations: Presentations: Panelists: Discussant: Brian Mannix, Presentations: Benefits and Costs of The George Washington Educational Gender Bank Regulatory Capital Deborah Aiken, University Preferences for Equality in Discrimination and its Standards; James R. Barth, U.S. Department of Environmental Outcomes; Economic Developmental Auburn University; and Transportation Presentations: William Raich*, Industrial Impact; Fatima Ali* Stephen Miller*, Mercatus Economics, Inc. Center at George Mason Elizabeth Ashley, U.S. Office Retrospective Benefit- Access and Quality University of Management and Budget Cost Analysis of Federally- Differential and in Higher Education Funded Buyback Distributional Effects of Project (Paces) - Higher The Systemic Risk Paradox: Amber Jessup, U.S. Programs for Southeast Energy Efficiency Surveys: Education Student Loans Costly Regulations Department of Health & Alaska Salmon Purse Evidence from Electricity in Colombia; Felipe Lozano- and Consolidation in Human Services Seine Permits; Keith Consumption; Thomas Rojas*, Indiana University Heterogeneous Financial Criddle*, University of Alaska Kniesner*, Claremont and World Bank Markets with Uncertainty; Al McGartland, U.S. Fairbanks Graduate University Sharon Brown-Hruska* Environmental Protection Gender Impacts in and Trevor Wagener, NERA Agency Combining Ex Post and Are There Distributional Benefit-Cost Analysis; Economic Consulting Ex Ante Analyses to Impacts from the National Bahman Kashi*, Queen’s Clark Nardinelli, U.S. Food Assess the Performance Flood Insurance Program?; University; Jennifer Watt Improvements in SEC and Drug Administration of a Historical Biocontrol Okmyung Bin*, East Carolina and Kamin Peyrow, Queen’s Economic Analysis since Program for Diffuse University University; Stephanie Business Roundtable: A Knapweed; Duncan Schmidt, International Structured Assessment; Knowler*, Simon Fraser Distributional Weights in Development Group Jerry Ellig*, Mercatus Center at University Environmental Valuation George Mason University and Cost-Benefit Analysis; Estimating Mortality Benefit-Cost Analysis in Vaino Nurmi*, Finnish and Economic Costs of International Trade and Educational Regulatory Meteorological Institute Particulate Air Pollution the Willingness to Pay by Actions; Viviana Rodriguez- in Developing Countries: SMEs for Online Banking Andrade*, CBCSE - Columbia The Case of Nigeria; Services; Glenn Jenkins*, University Natina Yaduma*, American Queen’s University and Eastern University of Nigeria Mediterranean University and Parvaneh Shahnoori, Eastern Mediterranean University

26 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis FRIDAY, MARCH 17 SESSION 7 2:00 - 3:30 PM

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 27 FRIDAY, MARCH 17 SESSION 8 3:45 - 5:15 PM

Room A Room B Room C Room D Room E Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 302 Marvin 301 Marvin 308 A.8: Measuring the B.8: Defining the C.8: Applications in Energy D.8: Issues in Valuing E.8: Issues in Costs and Effectiveness of Boundaries for Benefit- and the Environment Outcomes in BCAs of Benefits in Agriculture Regulations Cost Analysis Social Programs Policy Chair: Martha Rogers, Brattle Chair: Sofie Miller, The Chair: John Mendeloff, Group Chair: Anne Gordon, Chair: Elisabeth Newcomb, George Washington University of Pittsburgh Mathematica Policy U.S. Food and Drug University Presentations: Research Administration Presentations: Panelists: Cost Efficiency of Payment Presentations: Discussant: Sandra ‘Three Basic Postulates’ Systems for Forest Hoffmann, U.S. Department Retrospective Evaluation Revisited: A Sufficient Carbon Sequestration Reducing the Double of Agriculture of Chemical Regulations; Statistics Approach to Incorporating Spatial and Counting of Benefits: Susan Dudley*, The George BCA; Donald Kenkel*, Cornell Temporal Heterogeneities; A Bayesian Approach Presentations: Washington University University Seong-Hoon Cho*, University of to Model Multiple Tennessee Outcomes in Education Corn or Cattle? Improving Retrospective Bridging the Partial and Evaluations; Yilin Pan*, Comparison of Ecosystem Review; Reeve Bull*, General Equilibrium Ambiguity Aversion and Columbia University; and Services under Different Administrative Conference of Divide; Scott Farrow*, the Expected Cost of Wenjie Joanna Zhang, Land Uses; Haochi Zheng* the United States University of Maryland Rare Energy Disasters: An The George Washington and Stefano Potter*, Baltimore County Application to Nuclear University University of North Dakota Building Retrospective Power Accidents; Romain Evaluation Capacity Wellville or Funville: You Bizet* and François Lévêque, Private Investments The Impact of to Enhance EPA’s Got A Problem?; Clark MINES ParisTech in Public Preschools: Groundwater Depletion Prospective Analyses; Nardinelli*, U.S. Food and the Use of CBA in on Farm Exit Rates in Nicholas Hart*, The George Drug Administration The Effect of Water Quality Determining the the High Plains; Bern Washington University Characterization on Feasibility of Pay-for- Dealy*, U.S. Food and Drug Distinction between Recreation Demand Model Success Contracts; Judy Administration Improving the Elicitation Benefit-Cost Analysis and Results; William Wheeler*, Temple*, University of of Professional Cost-Benefit Analysis U.S. Environmental Protection Minnesota Reliable Reduction in Judgements for Use in in Law and Economics; Agency Agricultural Runoff Regulatory Benefits Scott Farrow*, University of The Impact of Job under Environmental Analysis; Jennifer Baxter*, Maryland Baltimore County Satisfaction on Uncertainty; Zhiyu Wang*, Margaret Black, and Henry on behalf of Richard Zerbe, Subjective Well-Being; University of Minnesota Roman, Industrial Economics, University of Washington Tapas Ray*, U.S. Centers Inc.; Arturo Rios, U.S. Coast for Disease Control and Guard Prevention

Project Finance through Impact Investment in the Social Sector; Jay Mackinnon* and Bahman Kashi*, Limestone Analytics

28 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis FRIDAY, MARCH 17 SESSION 8 3:45 - 5:15 PM

Project Finance through Impact Investment in the Social Sector; Jay Mackinnon* and Bahman Kashi*, Limestone Analytics

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 29 MARVIN CENTER FLOOR PLAN

Conference and workshop events will take place in the following locations throughout the 3rd floor of the Marvin Center: Lobby (registration and exhibit tables) Grand Ballroom & Continental Ballroom (breaks, lunches, and receptions) Rooms 301, 302, 307, 308, 309, 310 (conference sessions)

WIFI ACCESS

Network: GWConnect See handouts at registration desk for instructions for how to log in via guest access

30 Improving The Theory & Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis CONFERENCE LOGISTICS

WORKSHOPS, RECEPTIONS AND CONFERENCE LOCATION The George Washington University Marvin Center (red pin in the map above) 800 21st Street NW, Washington, DC 20052

LODGING

The University Inn (blue pin in the map above) 824 New Hampshire Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037

Key Bridge Marriott (yellow pin in the map above) 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA 22209

METRO ACCESS

Conference events take place within walking distance of the Foggy Bottom Metro Station (green diamond on map above)

Ninth Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 31