Air & Space Power in Nato Future Vector
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A ir O an AT d n N Space Power i Air & Space Power in Nato – Part I AIR & SPACE POWER IN NATO FUTURE VECTOR PART I Joint Air Power Competence Centre von-Seydlitz-Kaserne Römerstraße 140 | 47546 Kalkar (Germany) | www.japcc.org Joint Air Power Competence Centre Air and Space Power in NATO Future Vector – Part I A ir O an AT d n N Space Power i AIR AND SPACE POWER IN NATO FUTURE VECTOR PART I July 2014 Joint Air Power Competence Centre © This work is copyrighted. No part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission. Inquiries should be made to: The Editor, Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC), [email protected] Disclaimer This publication is a product of the JAPCC. The views expressed in this work are those of the authors. It does not represent the opinions or policies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and is designed to provide an independent overview, analysis and food for thought regarding possible ways ahead on this subject. Release This document is approved for public release. Portions of the document may be quoted or reproduced without permission, provided a standard source credit is included. Published and distributed by The Joint Air Power Competence Centre von-Seydlitz-Kaserne Römerstraße 140 47546 Kalkar Germany Foreword The precise application of combat power from the air has been of strategic importance to the Alliance since NATO’s inception. Time and time again, NATO and its Member Nations have turned to Joint Air Power as the first, and in some cases only, military response option. Air Power, now coupled with Space Power, continues to demonstrate its inherent ability to ‘go over not through’ with attributes of speed, reach, flexibility, and precision. These combined qualities provide NATO and National political leaders with a tool of unmatched responsiveness and flexibility, supporting the political- strategic objectives of both the Alliance and its Member Nations. Despite Air and Space Power’s undeniable contribution, NATO con tinues a drastic and increasing reduction of the very same capabilities. The current ‘climate of austerity’ will put investment in future Air and Space Power under further scrutiny, resulting most likely in further diminishing the mini mum military Air and Space Power capabilities needed to suppor t NATO’s level of ambition. Our Alliance now faces the in creasingly dire risk of not having the right capabilities and / or suf cient quantities of Air Power and access to Space capabilities to cope with the security challenges out- lined in NATO’s forward looking Strategic Concept. Therefore I directed the Joint Air Power Competence Centre to conduct the study ‘Air and Space Power in NATO – Future Vector’ to chart the path forward and guarantee Air and Space Power’s contribution to the success of NATO and the security of Member Nations. I would like to reiterate that the Future Vector Study is Joint in nature. The study focuses on Air and Space Power from all domains and includes the capability and competency requirements of all Services. V The crisis in Ukraine quickly highlighted why collective security in Europe is still required. Our Alliance will be required to execute Collective Defence, Crisis Management and Cooperative Security crisis response in a rapidly changing and challenging world. NATO and political decision-makers must continue to act collectively to maintain our asymmetric advantage – Joint Air and Space Power. I strongly encourage you to read this publication as it offers ideas and potential solutions to enhance NATO’s Joint Air and Space Power and guarantees our collective security in the coming decades. Frank Gorenc General, USA AF Director, JAPCC VI Table of Contents Foreword .....................................................................................V Introduction ...............................................................................1 Context of the Study ............................................................................................1 Core and Advisory Team ....................................................................................3 Compendium of Essays ......................................................................................4 Part I: Essays with a Political-Military Strategic Focus .......................5 Part II: Essays with a Military- and Operational-Strategic Focus ....7 Acknowledgement ............................................................................................ 10 Finally .......................................................................................................................... 11 Executive Summary ................................................................13 Context of the Future Vector Project ....................................................... 13 Compendium of Essays ................................................................................... 15 Key Messages ......................................................................................................... 15 New Ground ........................................................................................................... 16 Finally .......................................................................................................................... 17 Key Recommendations...........................................................18 The Paradox of Air and Space Power and the Need More Than Ever for Robust Political Support and Renewed Funding.....18 VIII The Impact of Global Trends on Air and Space Power in NATO ...................................................................................................... 18 ‘History is Continuity in Change’, the Role of Joint Air and Space Power in NATO in a Rebalanced Security Paradigm ....... 19 The Enduring Quest for Capability Development in NATO – Aligning National Interests with Alliance Interests ...... 20 A New Concept for Air, Space and Cyber Power ............................. 20 The Future Role of Partnerships in Transatlantic Air and Space Power ................................................................................................. 21 Beyond Optimization: Innovation and Adaptability for NATO Air and Space Power – The Role of Industry ................. 22 The New Burden Sharing Imperative ...................................................... 22 The Paradox of Air and Space Power ...................................25 I The Need More Than Ever for Robust Political Support and Renewed Funding Introduction ............................................................................................................ 25 Today’s Security Environment and Budget Realities ..................... 27 The Effect of Diminishing Budgets on Future Air Power Debate ........................................................................................................ 28 The Benefits of Air and Space Power ...................................................... 30 The Paradox............................................................................................................. 31 What Needs to Happen: Making the Case........................................... 32 IX Table of Contents The Impact of Global Trends on Air and Space II Power in NATO..........................................................................37 Overview ................................................................................................................... 37 Eight Global Trends Relevant to Air Power .......................................... 38 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 59 Principal Recommendations ........................................................................ 60 History is Continuity in Change ............................................65 III The Role of Joint Air and Space Power in NATO in a Rebalanced Security Paradigm Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 71 The Enduring Quest for Capability Development IV in NATO ......................................................................................75 Aligning National Interests with Alliance Interests Political-Military Strategic Issues ................................................................ 77 NATO is at Crossroads ....................................................................................... 80 Assured Access and Availability .................................................................. 82 Joint Air and Space Power Options in NATO ...................................... 82 Capability Development – Political .......................................................... 83 Political-Military Cooperation and Competency Development ......................................................................................................... 86 X Funding ..................................................................................................................... 90 Research and Development, Science and Technology and Industry ............................................................................................................ 90 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 91 A New Concept for Air, Space and Cyber Power ................95 V Introduction: Every War Must End ............................................................ 95 Objective: Good Governance – Legitimate