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Foot Locker Inc Foot Locker Inc. Financial Statement Analysis Valuation Brandon Schaeffer, Lawton Johnson, Jesse Fender, Tucker Dalton, Charlie Hamilton Page 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………… 8 Industry Overview……………………………………………………………………………………….9 Five Forces Model……………………………………………………………………………………….9 Accounting Analysis……………………………………………………………………………………10 Financial Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………11 Valuation Summary……………………………………………………………………………………12 Overview of Firms……………………………………………………………………………………………….12 Five Forces Model……………………………………………………………………………………………….13 Rivalry against Existing Competitors …………………………………………………………………….14 Industry Growth ……………………………………………………………………………………………15 Concentration ………………………………………………………………………………………………15 Differentiation ………………………………………………………………………………………………16 Switching Costs ……………………………………………………………………………………………18 Economies of Scale ………………………………………………………………………………………18 Exit Barriers ………………………………………………………………………………………………....19 Conclusion …………………………………………………………………………………………………….20 Threat of New Entrants ………………………………………………………………………………………20 Economies of Scale ………………………………………………………………………………………20 First Mover ……………………………………………………………………………………………………21 Distribution Access ………………………………………………………………………………………..21 Relationships ………………………………………………………………………………………………..22 Threat of Substitutes ………………………………………………………………………………………….22 Relative Price and Performance ………………………………………………………………………23 Page 2 Buyers Willingness to Switch ………………………………………………………………………….23 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………………………………24 Bargaining Power of Customers …………………………………………………………………………..24 Bargaining Power of Suppliers ……………………………………………………………………………..26 Conclusion of the Five Forces Model……………………………………………………………………..28 Analysis of Key Success Factors for Creating Value ………………………………………………..28 Cost Cutting………………………………………………………………………………………………………..29 Differentiation ……………………………………………………………………………………………………30 Inventory Control………………………………………………………………………………………………..30 Key Accounting Policies………………………………………………………………………………………..31 Type One Key Accounting Principles………………………………………………………………………32 Differentiation….……………………………………………………………………………………….32 Investment in Brand Image……….……………………………………………………………….32 Product Variety………….………………………………………………………………………………34 Conclusion……….……………………………………………………………………………………….36 Cost Cutting………………………………………………………………………………………………………..36 Inventory Control………………………………………………………………………………………………..37 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………..39 Type Two Key Accounting Policies…………………………………………………………………………39 Operating Leases……………………………………………………………………………………….40 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………..40 Potential Accounting Flexibility………………………………………………………………………………41 Actual Accounting Strategy…………………………………………………………………………………..41 Accounting for Operating Leases…………………………………………………………………………..42 Page 3 Accounting for Goodwill……………………………………………………………………………………….42 Conclusion…………………………….………………………………………………………………….42 Qualitative Analysis……………………………………………………………………………………………..42 Inventory Control………………………………………………………………………………………………..43 Differentiation…………………………………………………………………………………………………….44 Cost Cutting………………………………………………………………………………………………………..44 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………..45 Identifying Potential Red Flags……………………………………………………………………………..45 Sales Manipulation Diagnostics..……………………………………………………………………………45 Net Sales/Cash from Sales………………………………………………………………………….45 Net Sales/Net Account Receivables……………………………………………………………..46 Net Sales/Unearned Revenue……………………………………………………………………..47 Net Sales/Inventory…………………………………………………………………………………..47 Core Expense Manipulation Diagnostics…………………………………………………………………48 Cash Flow from Operations/Net Operating Assets…………………………………………48 Cash Flow from Operations/Operating Income……………………………………………..48 Asset Turnover………………………………………………………………………………………….49 Undo Accounting Distortions…………………………………………………………………………………49 Financial Statement Analysis……………………………………………………………………….51 Liquidity Ratios………………………………………………………………………………………….51 Current Ratio…………………………………………………………………………………………….52 Quick Asset Ratio………………………………………………………………………………………53 Liquidity Ratio Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………..54 Operating Efficiency…………………………………………………………………………………………….54 Page 4 Inventory Turnover……………………………………………………………………………………55 Working Capital Turnover…………………………………………………………………………..56 Day’s Supply Inventory………………………………………………………………………………56 Days Payable Outstanding………………………………………………………………………….57 Days Sales Outstanding……………………………………………………………………………..58 Cash to Cash Cycle…………………………………………………………………………………….59 Operating Efficiency Ratio Analysis Conclusion……………..................................60 Profitability Ratios……………………………………………………………………………………………….60 Gross Profit Margin…………………………………………………………………………………….61 Operating Expense Margin………………………………………………………………………….62 Operating Profit Margin………………………………………………………………………………63 Net Profit Margin……………………………………………………………………………………….64 Asset Turnover………………………………………………………………………………………….65 Return on Assets……………………………………………………………………………………….66 Return on Equity……………………………………………………………………………………….67 Profitability Ratios Conclusion……………………………………………………………………..67 Internal Growth Rate……………………………………………………………………………………………68 Sustainable Growth Rate………………………………………………………………………………………70 Capital Structure………………………………………………………………………………………………….71 Debt to Equity…………………………………………………………………………………………..71 Times Interest Earned……………………………………………………………………………….72 Debt Service Margin…………………………………………………………………………………..73 Altman Z score………………………………………………………………………………………….75 Capital Structure analysis conclusion……………………………………………………………76 Page 5 Financial Forecasting……………………………………………………………………………………………76 Income Statement…………………………………………………………………………………….77 Balance Sheet……………………………………………………………………………………………78 Cash Flow Statement…………………………………………………………………………………79 Cost of Debt……………………………………………………………………………………………………….81 Cost of Capital…………………………………………………………………………………………………….84 Cost of Equity……………………………………………………………………………………………………..84 Alternative Cost of Equity Method…………………………………………………………………………87 Weighted Average Cost of Capital…………………………………………………………………………88 Methods of Comparables………………………………………………………………………………………91 Trailing P/E……………………………………………………………………………………………….91 Forward P/E………………………………………………………………………………………………92 Dividend to Price……………………………………………………………………………………….93 Price to Book…………………………………………………………………………………………….93 P.E.G. Ratio………………………………………………………………………………………………94 EV / EBITDA……………………………………………………………………………………………..95 Price / Free Cash Flow……………………………………………………………………………….95 Price / EBITDA………………………………………………………………………………………….96 Intrinsic Valuation Models…………………………………………………………………………………….97 Discounted Dividends…………………………………………………………………………………………..98 Discounted Free Cash Flows…………………………………………………………………………………99 AEG Model………………………………………………………………………………………………………..100 Residual Income Model………………………………………………………………………………………101 Long Run Residual Income Model……………………………………………………………………….103 Page 6 Final Recommendation……………………………………………………………………………………….104 Appendix………………………………………………………………………………………………………….106 Work Cited………………………………………………………………………………………………………..119 Page 7 Executive Summary Overvalued (Sell) Footlocker (FL) NYSE Altman's Z Scores 2011 2012 2013 Observed Price $ 10/31/14 56.10 Z-Score 5.2 6.1 7 52 week range $59.19 - $36.65 Revenue 7.03B Methods of Comparables Valuation Market cap 8.26B Shares Outstanding Trailing P/E $ 55.00 Book Value per share 17.86 Forward P/E $ 55.59 Return on Equity 19.53% P.E.G $ 60.71 Return on Assets 13.65% Dividends/Price $ 74.23 $ Cost of Capital Price/Book 8.34 EV/EBITDA $ 47.62 Adj. R^2 Beta Size Adj. Ke Price/EBITDA $ 46.71 3 month 21.31% 1.03 4.12% Price/FCF $ 134.00 1 year 22.89% 1.13 4.61% Intrinsic Valuations 2 year 22.88% 1.13 5.07% 7 year 22.91% 1.13 6.73% Discounted Dividends $ 14.57 10 year 22.92% 1.13 7.04% Free Cash Flows $ 17.81 Residual Income $ 24.22 6.05 Backdoor Ke % Long-run Residual Income $ 20.47 7.08 Abnormal Earnings WACC % Growth $ 23.14 Beta 1.22 Page 8 Industry Overview Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE: FL) was founded in 1879 by F.W. Woolworth and is an athletic footwear and apparel retailer operating in the retail store and online business space. In this industry the key success factors are cost-cutting, inventory control, and differentiation. Five Forces Model Factors we will discuss include industry growth, concentration, differentiation, switching costs, learning economies, and exit barriers. The five forces model is shown below. Porter's Five Forces Bargaining Rivalry Power of Against Suppliers Existing Firms Bargaining Threat of New Power of Entrants Buyers Threat of Substitute Products After evaluating the athletic retail industry using the five forces model, we believe that the industry is highly competitive. Firstly, among existing competitors there is low levels of concentration, and slow industry growth. There is also a high threat of Page 9 new entrants in the industry due to low barriers of entry. The ability to substitute or trade out products within the industry is another competitive driver of competition, resulting in a high threat of new substitutes. Athletic retailers rely on a small group of companies for their entire inventory, combining this with the fact that retailers add nothing proprietary, supplier’s bargaining power is high in this industry. The customers bargaining power is very low because the inventory is all purchased from suppliers who set the prices. Therefore, all of the industry is going to have nearly the same prices for the same products giving customers
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