Coastal Flood Forecast in Cuba, Due to Hurricanes, Using a Combination of Numerical Models
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Hurricane Delta Leaves Over Half a Million Without Power in Louisiana
Hurricane Delta leaves over half a million without power in Louisiana Over half a million customers are waking up without power in Louisiana after Hurricane Delta blew through Friday night. © Go Nakamura/Getty Images People observe rain and wind as Hurricane Delta makes landfall on Oct. 9, 2020, in Lake Arthur, La. "Delta has left hazards like flooded roads, downed power lines and displaced wildlife in our communities that no one should take lightly," Gov. John Bel Edwards tweeted Saturday. "Everyone needs to remain vigilant, continue to listen to local officials and be safe." © Mario Tama/Getty Images Cars move through a section of the city suffering a power outage during Hurricane Delta on Oc. 9, 2020 in Lafayette, La. Hurricane Delta made landfall as a Category 2 storm in Louisiana today leaving some 300,000 customers without power. © Dan Anderson/EPA via Shutterstock A man rides his bike by a yard flooded from Hurricane Delta in New Iberia, La., Oct. 10, 2020. Delta made landfall Friday evening in Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane, hitting land just 12 miles from where Hurricane Laura slammed into the state in August. Louisiana has attributed 30 deaths to Laura, according to the governor. Wind gusts climbed to 97 mph in Lake Charles, Louisiana, and 89 mph in Cameron, Louisiana. Near Iowa, Louisiana, more than 17 inches of rain fell. In Lake Charles, more than 15 inches of rain was recorded. The highest storm surge recorded was just over 9 feet along parts of the south-central Louisiana coast. In hard-hit Lake Charles, where there are still blue tarps on house roofs from Laura, mayor Nic Hunter said some houses did get flooding from Delta. -
Hurricane Hanna July 25, 2020 Update
Hurricane Hanna July 25, 2020 Update Adapted from the TropicsWatch 9AM CDT Hurricane Hanna Advisory Advisory Track TRAC Active Storm Wind Radii Current Radar Key Points 1. Hanna has become the first hurricane of the season. 2. Landfall is expected to occur around 4 PM CDT mid-way between Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas with max sustained winds between 80 mph and 90 mph. 3. Flooding rainfall remains likely over South Texas. Forecast Hanna is predicted to strengthen over the next 6-8 hours prior to moving inland. Due to the relatively small size of Hanna’s max winds, any sustained hurricane-force winds should keep south of Corpus Christi and north of Brownsville at landfall. Hanna is predicted to produce about a 4 ft. storm surge south of Corpus Christi when the center nears the coast this afternoon. Once inland, Hanna will steadily weaken to a remnant low pressure area in northern Mexico on Sunday. The threat of heavy rainfall will persist across south Texas and northeast Mexico through Sunday, even after Hanna dissipates as a tropical cyclone. Some areas could see more than 10 inches of rain from Hanna. As Hanna moves onshore, expected impacts in South Texas include widespread power outages, minor to moderate wind damage, and some flood damage. In Northeast Mexico, areas of flash flooding and mudslides could occur with some flood damage. Offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, conditions should slowly improve throughout the day for the lease blocks off of Louisiana. Hurricane conditions are expected for the lease blocks along the south Texas coast today, and should start to improve Sunday morning.. -
The HWRF Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) for High-Resolution Data: the Impact of Airborne Doppler Radar Observations in an OSSE
JUNE 2012 A K S O Y E T A L . 1843 The HWRF Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) for High-Resolution Data: The Impact of Airborne Doppler Radar Observations in an OSSE ALTUG˘AKSOY AND SYLVIE LORSOLO Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, and Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida TOMISLAVA VUKICEVIC Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida KATHRYN J. SELLWOOD Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, and Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida SIM D. ABERSON Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida FUQING ZHANG Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania (Manuscript received 10 August 2011, in final form 6 December 2011) ABSTRACT Within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory has developed the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) to assimilate hurricane inner-core observations for high-resolution vortex initialization. HEDAS is based on a serial implementation of the square root ensemble Kalman filter. HWRF is configured with a horizontal grid spacing of 9/3 km on the outer/inner domains. In this preliminary study, airborne Doppler radar radial wind observations are simulated from a higher-resolution (4.5/1.5 km) version of the same model with other modifications that resulted in appreciable model error. A 24-h nature run simulation of Hurricane Paloma was initialized at 1200 UTC 7 November 2008 and produced a realistic, category-2-strength hurricane vortex. The impact of assimilating Doppler wind obser- vations is assessed in observation space as well as in model space. -
2021 Rio Grande Valley/Deep S. Texas Hurricane Guide
The Official Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas HURRICANE GUIDE 2021 IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM! weather.gov/rgv A Letter to Residents After more than a decade of near-misses, 2020 reminded the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas that hurricanes are still a force to be reckoned with. Hurricane Hanna cut a swath from Padre Island National Seashore in Kenedy County through much of the Rio Grande Valley in late July, leaving nearly $1 billion in agricultural and property damage it its wake. While many may now think that we’ve paid our dues, that sentiment couldn’t be further from the truth! The combination of atmospheric and oceanic patterns favorable for a landfalling hurricane in the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas region can occur in any season, including this one. Residents can use the experience of Hurricane Hanna in 2020 as a great reminder to be prepared in 2021. Hurricanes bring a multitude of hazards including flooding rain, damaging winds, deadly storm surge, and tornadoes. These destructive forces can displace you from your home for months or years, and there are many recent cases in the United States and territories where this has occurred. Hurricane Harvey (2017), Michael (2018, Florida Panhandle), and Laura (2020, southwest Louisiana) are just three such devastating events. This guide can help you and your family get prepared. Learn what to do before, during and after a storm. Your plan should include preparations for your home or business, gathering supplies, ensuring your insurance is up to date, and planning with your family for an evacuation. -
Hurricane Hanna Threatens Coronavirus-Stricken Texas
SUNDAY, JULY 26, 2020 06 News in brief u Somalia’s parliament Somali removed Prime Minister Hurricane Hanna threatens Hassan Ali Khaire from his PM axed post in a vote of no confidence for failing to pave the way towards fully democratic elections, the speaker said. A whopping 170 of parliament’s 178 MPs backed the no confidence coronavirus-stricken Texas motion, and Khaire’s ouster was immediately endorsed by President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who had appointed him as prime minister in February 2017. u At least 20 people died and 22 others The storm, with wind speeds of around 130 km per hour, strengthened to a were injured after gunmen from an Gunmen kill at Category 1 hurricane unidentified militia attacked a village in the least 22 villagers Sudanese state of South Darfur, witnesses in South Darfur, AFP | Houston and a local community leader said. Attackers on horseback and camels opened fire on villagers in locals say the Um Doss area, which is located around 90 kilometres (56 miles) from the state torm Hanna, the first hur- capital Nyala, said a local leader who gave his name as Nimr. Sricane of the 2020 Atlantic season, was forecast to make France u French police will start hitting users of illicit landfall on the Texas coast late drugs, especially cannabis, with on-the-spot fines yesterday, threatening one of introduces 200- starting in September, Prime Minister Jean Castex the nation’s COVID-19 hot spots euro spot fine said. Spot fines of 200 euros ($233) have been tested with storm surge and flooding. -
Tuesday, August 25, 2020 8:30 A.M. ET National Current Operations and Monitoring
Tuesday, August 25, 2020 8:30 a.m. ET National Current Operations and Monitoring Significant Incidents or Threats: • Tropical Cyclones Laura and Marco – Preparations and Response • Severe thunderstorms possible – Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes • Severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, and flash flooding possible – Gulf Coast into the Southeast • Wildfire activity • COVID-19 Tropical Activity: • Atlantic: o Tropical Cyclone Laura o Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco – FINAL • Eastern Pacific: o Disturbance 1: High (90%) o Disturbance 2: High (70%) o Disturbance 3: Low (30%) • Central Pacific: No activity affecting U.S. interests • Western Pacific: No activity affecting U.S. interests Declaration Activity: • Approval: Emergency Declaration –Texas • 7 Amendments Hurricane Laura SATELLITE LOOP 7 AM CDT • WNW at 17mph • 991 mb • 75 mph Hurricane Laura FORECAST TRACK 7 AM CDT • WNW at 17mph • 991 mb • 75 mph Hurricane Laura FORECAST TRACK 7 AM CDT • WNW at 17mph • 991 mb • 75 mph Hurricane Laura MOST LIKELY ARRIVAL OF TS WINDS TS Wind Probabilities Gulfport, MS 18% New Orleans, LA 35% Lafayette, LA 73% Lake Charles, LA 88% Port Arthur, TX 85% Galveston, TX 77% Port O Connor, TX 30% Hurricane Laura HURRICANE WIND PROBABILITIES Hurricane Probabilities Lafayette, LA 12% Lake Charles, LA 33% Port Arthur, TX 35% Galveston, TX 24% Houston, TX 9% Hurricane Laura PEAK STORM SURGE FORECAST Hurricane Laura 5 DAY RAINFALL 10 in 6 in 4 in 2 in 1 in 4 – 8” Isolated 12” Hurricane Laura FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL East Pacific Overview TROPICAL OUTLOOK Central Pacific Overview TROPICAL OUTLOOK Tropical Cyclones Laura and Marco – Preparations/Response Situation: Post Tropical Cyclone Marco remains south of Morgan City, LA and will dissipate Wednesday. -
Storm Watcher Pdf, Epub, Ebook
STORM WATCHER PDF, EPUB, EBOOK Maria V Snyder | 228 pages | 05 May 2013 | Leap Books, LLC | 9781616030339 | English | Powell, WY, United States National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Wilfred forms over the eastern Atlantic. Tropical Depression 22 forms in the Gulf of Mexico. September 17, September 14, Hurricane Teddy forms over the central Atlantic. September 16, Hurricane Sally has formed over the Gulf of Mexico. September 12, Paulette is now a hurricane over the northwestern Atlantic. September 13, The NHC indicates that Nana has become a hurricane and is expected to make landfall along the coast of Belize tonight. September 02, Tropical Storm Omar forms off the east coast of the United States. September 01, Marco has become a hurricane and could make landfall near the Louisiana coast on Monday. August 23, Tropical Storm Laura becomes a hurricane , forecast to reach category 3 before making landfall on the south coast of the USA. August 25, Tropical Storm Kyle has formed off the east coast of the United States. August 14, August 13, Tropical Depression 10 forms over the eastern Atlantic. J uly 31, Hurricane Isaias moving closer towards southern Florida. August 01, Hanna strengthens and has become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. July 25, J uly 22, Tropical Storm Fay has formed near the coast of North Carolina. July 09, July 05, Tropical Storm Dolly forms over the north Atlantic. June 23, June 2, Tropical Storm Bertha has formed near the coast of South Carolina this morning. May 27, May 16, Storm Names for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical Storm Arthur. -
1 a Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020
1 A Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020 2 3 Philip J. Klotzbach* 4 Department of Atmospheric Science 5 Colorado State University 6 Fort Collins CO 80523 7 8 Kimberly M. Wood# 9 Department of Geosciences 10 Mississippi State University 11 Mississippi State MS 39762 12 13 Michael M. Bell 14 Department of Atmospheric Science 15 Colorado State University 16 Fort Collins CO 80523 17 1 18 Eric S. Blake 19 National Hurricane Center 1 Early Online Release: This preliminary version has been accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, may be fully cited, and has been assigned DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1. The final typeset copyedited article will replace the EOR at the above DOI when it is published. © 2021 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/26/21 05:03 AM UTC 20 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 21 Miami FL 33165 22 23 Steven G. Bowen 24 Aon 25 Chicago IL 60601 26 27 Louis-Philippe Caron 28 Ouranos 29 Montreal Canada H3A 1B9 30 31 Barcelona Supercomputing Center 32 Barcelona Spain 08034 33 34 Jennifer M. Collins 35 School of Geosciences 36 University of South Florida 37 Tampa FL 33620 38 2 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/26/21 05:03 AM UTC Accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1. 39 Ethan J. Gibney 40 UCAR/Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science 41 San Diego, CA 92127 42 43 Carl J. Schreck III 44 North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System 45 Studies (CISESS) 46 North Carolina State University 47 Asheville NC 28801 48 49 Ryan E. -
Predicting Hurricane Trajectories Using a Recurrent Neural Network
The Thirty-Third AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-19) Predicting Hurricane Trajectories Using a Recurrent Neural Network Sheila Alemany,1 Jonathan Beltran,1 Adrian Perez,1 Sam Ganzfried1,2 1School of Computing and Information Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 2Ganzfried Research, Miami, FL fsalem010, jbelt021, apere946g@fiu.edu, [email protected] Abstract have been recently used to forecast increasingly compli- cated systems. RNNs are a class of artificial neural networks Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center where the modification of weights allows the model to learn whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can intricate dynamic temporal behaviors. A RNN with the ca- result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their tra- pability of efficiently modeling complex nonlinear temporal jectory paths is critical to reduce economic loss and save hu- relationships of a hurricane could increase the accuracy of man lives. Given the complexity and nonlinearity of weather predicting future hurricane path forecasts. Development of data, a recurrent neural network (RNN) could be beneficial such an approach is the focus of this paper. in modeling hurricane behavior. We propose the application While others have used RNNs in the forecasting of of a fully connected RNN to predict the trajectory of hur- weather data, to our knowledge this is the first fully con- ricanes. We employed the RNN over a fine grid to reduce nected recurrent neural networks employed using a grid typical truncation errors. We utilized their latitude, longitude, model for hurricane trajectory forecasts. The proposed wind speed, and pressure publicly provided by the National method can more accurately predict trajectories of hurri- Hurricane Center (NHC) to predict the trajectory of a hur- ricane at 6-hour intervals. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2008*
MAY 2010 A N N U A L S U M M A R Y 1975 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2008* DANIEL P. BROWN,JOHN L. BEVEN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, AND ERIC S. BLAKE NOAA/NWS/NCEP, National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 27 July 2009, in final form 17 September 2009) ABSTRACT The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized and the year’s tropical cyclones are described. Sixteen named storms formed in 2008. Of these, eight became hurricanes with five of them strengthening into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). There was also one tropical de- pression that did not attain tropical storm strength. These totals are above the long-term means of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The 2008 Atlantic basin tropical cyclones produced significant impacts from the Greater Antilles to the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma hit Cuba, as did Tropical Storm Fay. Haiti was hit by Gustav and adversely affected by heavy rains from Fay, Ike, and Hanna. Paloma struck the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane, while Omar was a major hurricane when it passed near the northern Leeward Islands. Six con- secutive cyclones hit the United States, including Hurricanes Dolly, Gustav, and Ike. The death toll from the Atlantic tropical cyclones is approximately 750. A verification of National Hurricane Center official forecasts during 2008 is also presented. Official track forecasts set records for accuracy at all lead times from 12 to 120 h, and forecast skill was also at record levels for all lead times. -
Central Planning Authority
Central Planning Authority Minutes of a meeting of the Central Planning Authority held on April 28, 2021 at 10:00am, in Conference Room 1038, 1st Floor, Government Administration Building, Elgin Avenue. 09th Meeting of the Year CPA/09/21 Mr. A. L. Thompson (Chairman) Mr. Robert Walter Jr. (Deputy Chairman) (Acting Chairman 2.6) Mr. Kris Bergstrom (left at 3:15) Mr. Peterkin Berry Mr. Edgar Ashton Bodden Mr. Roland Bodden Mr. Ray Hydes Mr. Trent McCoy Mr. Jaron Leslie Ms. Christina McTaggart-Pineda Mr. Selvin Richardson Mr. Fred Whittaker Mr. Haroon Pandohie (Executive Secretary) Mr. Ron Sanderson (Deputy Director of Planning – Current Planning) 1. Confirmation of Minutes & Declarations of Conflicts/Interests 2. Applications 3. Development Plan Matters 4. Planning Appeal Matters 5. Matters from the Director of Planning 6. CPA Members Information/Discussions 1 List of Applications Presented at CPA/09/21 1. 1 Confirmation of Minutes of CPA/08/21 held on April 13, 2021. .............................. 4 1. 2 Declarations of Conflicts/Interests ............................................................................ 4 2.1 REFUEL (Chalmers Gibbs Architects) Block 12C Parcel 517 (P21-0021) ($1M) (JP) 5 2.2 NWPR GROUP LTD. (Declan O’Brien) Block 2C Parcel 66&67 (P20-1021) ($12,320,000) (MW) ............................................................................................. 16 2.3 CAYMAN PROPERTY INVESTMENTS LTD (MJM Design Studio) Block 5B Parcel 162 (P20-1121) ($820,000) (JP) ........................................................................... 33 2.4 LOOKOUT HOLDINGS LTD. (Abernethy & Associates) Block 43A Parcels 54 and 409 Rem2 and Block 37A Parcel 15 (P20-0630) ($272,257) (BES) ........................... 49 2.5 KARL LOPEZ (Island Drafting) Block 28B Parcel 121 (P20-0551) ($660,269) (BES) 59 2.6 ANTHONY WELLINGTON (Architectural Designs and Cayman Contemporary) Block 14C Parcel 355 (P20-1058) ($8,000) (JP) ................................................................ -
Goodbye Hanna! Texas' Top by Dale Rankin We Got Some Wind and Rain on Trading Our Little Sandbar This Week
Inside the Moon Stormy Weather A2 Beaches A4 Cleaning Up A9 Island Outdoors A11 Issue 850 The 27° 37' 0.5952'' N | 97° 13' 21.4068'' W Photo by Matthew Rohmfeld Island Free The voiceMoon of The Island since 1996 July 30, 2020 Weekly www.islandmoon.com FREE Around The By the numbers Island Goodbye Hanna! Texas' Top By Dale Rankin We got some wind and rain on Trading our little sandbar this week. Think of Hanna as a shot across our bow Partners reminding us that it is after all Source: Texas Comptroller hurricane season and we need to be ready to head OTB ina hurry. As Texas Export Destinations/ storms go Hanna wasn’t a whopper. 2019 Export Values An Island anemometer recorded (Billions) steady winds of 61 miles per hour Mexico $108.6 with gusts up to 70 mph, just enough to get our attention. The National Canada $28.5 Weather Service said the peak South Korea $16.6 observed water level was 5.48 feet above Mean Sea Level at Bob Hall Pier Brazil $13.5 which eclipses the previous highest Netherlands $11.7 water level measured on record there Japan $11.3 which was 4.29 feet above Mean Sea Level during Hurricane Ike in China $11.0 2008. The NWS said the highest United Kingdom $9.7 wind speed was 65.9 mph with gusts of 89.8 103.3 mph were both India $8.7 measured at Rincon Del San Jose, TX Taiwan $8.5 where the minimum record pressure Islanders are digging out this week after Hurricane Hanna swept across our shores.