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FOR THE RECORD 9 Greg Baer, THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE CLEARING HOUSE AND BANK POLICY INSTITUTE Bank Policy Institute MY PERSPECTIVE 14 Jim Colassano, The Clearing House Q1 2019, VOLUME 7, ISSUE 1 STATE OF BANKING 20 Michael O’Grady, Northern Trust THE NEXT CRISIS IMPACT THROUGH SPECIALIZATION Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting that combines deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and organization transformation. Visit us at: www.oliverwyman.com Leveraging our broad regulatory knowledge and global capabilities, our market-leading financial regulatory practice helps clients around the world cultivate relationships with regulators, deliver innovative solutions to increasingly complex issues, and benefit from the opportunities presented by regulatory reform initiatives and market developments. 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THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE CLEARING HOUSE AND BANK POLICY INSTITUTE Q1 2019, VOLUME 7, ISSUE 1 UPFRONT FEATURED ARTICLES For the Record Banks and the Next Recession 9 Has the enhanced resilience and resolvability of 26 Bankers and regulators must consider how changes in the large banks reduced the likelihood of another financial system could affect us in the next recession. We financial crisis or increased it? should take actions now that would reduce those impacts. by Greg Baer, CEO, Bank Policy Institute by Douglas J. Elliott, Oliver Wyman My Perspective 14 Corporates see the RTP network as an innovative Expectations and Economics platform for improving the customer experience. 34 of Financial Crises by Jim Colassano, Senior Vice President Standard models of expectations cannot explain the in the Product Development and Strategy group, 2008 financial crisis. Here is a more realistic alternative. The Clearing House by Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University, and Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University The CECL Approach 42 The current expected credit loss approach is a good idea that will yield procyclicality. by Stephen G. Ryan, Stern School of Business, New York University Balancing Banking 48 Regulation to Deal with Risky Lending and Runs When banks perform multiple services, regulating them gets even more complicated. by Anil Kashyap, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Bank of England, NBER, and CEPR, Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, Saïd Business School and St. Edmund Hall, University of Oxford, and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, STATE OF BANKING Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Michael O’Grady, FRB and FDIC Cast a Critical 20 Northern Trust 58 Eye on Resolution Plans Northern Trust’s chairman, president, and CEO While the living-will process continues to evolve, it is likely discusses emerging technology and more with that many of the central tenets and requirements will Greg Baer, CEO of the Bank Policy Institute. remain in place for the foreseeable future. by Neil Bloomfield and Kate Wellman, Moore & Van Allen 4 BANKING PERSPECTIVES QUARTER 1 2019 EDITOR Greg MacSweeney DESIGN & PRODUCTION Big Yellow Taxi, Inc. Banking Perspectives is the quarterly journal of The Clearing House and the Bank Policy Institute. Its aim is to inform financial industry leaders and the policymaking community on developments in bank policy and payments. The journal is a forum for thought leadership from banking industry executives, regulators, academics, policy experts, and industry observers. 58 Established in 1853, The Clearing House is the oldest payments company in the United States. It is owned by the world’s largest FinTech and the New commercial banks, which collectively hold more than half of all U.S. deposits and which employ over 1 million people in the 64 Financial Landscape A recent conference spotlighted some of the advantages United States and more than 2 million people worldwide. Its and potential problems of FinTech lenders. affiliate, The Clearing House Payments Company L.L.C., which is by Itay Goldstein, The Wharton School, University of regulated as a systemically important financial market utility, owns Pennsylvania, Julapa Jagtiani, Federal Reserve Bank of and operates payments technology infrastructure that provides Philadelphia, and Aaron Klein, The Brookings Institution safe and efficient payment, clearing, and settlement services to financial institutions. It clears almost $2 trillion each day. The Bank Policy Institute (BPI) is a nonpartisan public policy, DEPARTMENTS research, and advocacy group, representing the nation’s leading banks and their customers. BPI’s members include Contributors universal banks, regional banks, and the major foreign 6 Information on the authors from this edition. banks doing business in the United States. Collectively, BPI’s members employ almost 2 million Americans, make nearly half of the nation’s small business loans, and are an engine for Bank Conditions Index financial innovation and economic growth. 72 A quantitative assessment of the resiliency of the U.S. banking sector. Copyright 2019 The Clearing House Association L.L.C. All rights reserved. All content is owned by The Clearing House Association Research Rundown L.L.C. or its licensors. The views expressed herein are not 74 Highlights from academic research on banking issues. necessarily those of The Clearing House Association L.L.C., its affiliates, customers, or owners. Any use or reproduction of any of Featured Moments the contents hereof without the express written permission of The 78 Images from The Clearing House + Bank Policy Institute Clearing House Association L.L.C. is strictly prohibited. 2018 Annual Conference. The Clearing House Bank Policy Institute 1114 Avenue of the Americas 600 13th Street NW 17th floor Suite 400 New York, NY 10036 Washington, D.C. 20005 212.613.0100 202.289.4322 BANKING PERSPECTIVES QUARTER 1 2019 5 Contributors Neil Bloomfield its international coordination. Elliott has University. He is an expert in the areas of been a visiting scholar at the International corporate finance, financial institutions, and Neil Bloomfield is Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as a financial markets, focusing on financial fragility Co-Head of the Financial consultant for the IMF, the World Bank, and crises and on the feedback effects Regulatory Advice and and the Asian Development Bank. Elliott between firms and financial markets. Before Response Team at Moore graduated from Harvard College magna cum joining Wharton, Professor Goldstein served on & Van Allen. He has more laude with an A.B. in sociology in 1981. In the faculty of Duke University’s Fuqua School of than a decade of 1984, he graduated from Duke University Business. He had also worked in the research experience advising with an M.A. in computer science. department of the Bank of Israel. major financial institutions and other highly regulated entities in responding to government Nicola Gennaioli Julapa Jagtiani investigations, including responding to global investigations into LIBOR and other reference Nicola Gennaioli Dr. Julapa Jagtiani is rates, foreign exchange trading, and the studies topics at the Senior Special Advisor at allegations raised by the Panama Papers. intersection of psychol- the Federal Reserve Bloomfield shares these insights as an Adjunct ogy, finance, and Bank of Philadelphia Professor at Wake Forest University School of economics. He and a fellow member of Law. He also frequently advises clients as they obtained a Ph.D. in the Wharton Financial implement programs to comply with regulatory economics from Institutions Center. requirements, including requirements related to Harvard University in 2004. Today he is a Previously, Jagtiani was Senior Economist at recovery and resolution planning and CCAR. Professor of Finance at Bocconi University the Chicago Fed and Kansas City Fed, and she in Milan. He is also a Managing Editor of was Associate Professor of Finance at Baruch Douglas J. Elliott the Review of Economic Studies, a leading College, City University of New York. At the journal in economics, and he holds Federal Reserve, Jagtiani has participated in Douglas J. Elliott is a appointments in various international several supervisory policy projects, including Partner in the financial scientific associations. serving on the Basel Qualification Team, CCAR services consulting Stress Testing team, and, recently, on the practice of Oliver Itay Goldstein Federal Reserve FinTech Task Force. Jagtiani Wyman, where he received her Ph.D. and MBA from the NYU focuses on public Itay Goldstein is the Joel Stern School of Business. policy and its S. Ehrenkranz Family implications for the financial sector. He was Professor in the Finance Anil Kashyap the lead author of a 170-page report Department at the analyzing the impacts of the Basel capital