Review of Higher Education Provision in North East Wales Advice to the Minister for Education and Skills June 2013 Digital ISBN 978 1 4734 0312 3 © Crown copyright 2013 WG19858 Review of Higher Education Provision in North East Wales Contents Foreword 1 1. Executive Summary 2 2. Context 13 3. Our Approach 16 4. Profile of North East Wales 18 5. What North East Wales Needs 59 6. How Does Current Provision in North East Wales Measure Up? 83 7. Important Considerations 105 8. Options and Recommendations 109 Annex A: Details of Review Panel Members 126 Annex B: Stakeholder Engagement List 127 Annex C: Additional Evidence List 130 Annex D: Universities and Further Education Colleges Location Map 137 Annex E: Additional Profile Data – North East Wales 138 Review of Higher Education Provision in North East Wales Foreword In February 2012 we were asked by former Minister, Leighton Andrews, to review the provision of higher education in North East Wales. This is the final report arising from the review. In the course of our work we have spoken with more than 160 stakeholders and examined over one hundred items of other evidence. The Review Panel members1 have, without exception, brought dedication and an analytical and independent approach to the task in hand. We in turn have much appreciated the respect shown to our independence; we have not been under pressure to recommend any particular solution. Our conclusions are unanimous. Our vision is one of substantial ambition for higher education in North East Wales and for what it can do for the region into the future. In searching for ways of achieving that vision we assessed a wide range of possible options. We recommend a preferred and a "reserve" way forward. Both would involve structural models not found (to our knowledge) elsewhere in the UK. To this extent we could be seen to have been somewhat radical in our thinking, but stakeholders overwhelmingly rejected the status quo as an option and many argued that change had to be "hard-wired" if it was to have a chance of success. Such possibilities are not abundant. We recognise that there is significant work to be done on how best to bring our suggestions to fruition, but there are appropriate models around the world of how things can be done – in the case of our wider, slightly longer term proposal there are models available in the UK. There can be no doubt that any satisfactory way forward will require an expansive mental framework and an avoidance of merely sectional interests. We hope all parties will recognise this and make our vision possible. If not, we are clear that the learners and employers in the region will not be as well served as they could be and this could be detrimental to the region’s future. Professor Sir Adrian Webb Review Panel Chair 1 Details of Review Panel members can be found at Annex A. - 1 - Review of Higher Education Provision in North East Wales 1. Executive Summary 1.1 Background For our Future2, the Welsh Government’s higher education (HE) strategy and plan for Wales, published in 2009 identified the need for radical change in the shape, structure and provision of HE in Wales. In 2010, the Welsh Assembly endorsed the Higher Education Funding Council Wales’ (HEFCW) Corporate Strategy for 2010-11 to 2012-133. This outlined plans for 75 per cent of HE Institutions in Wales to have an annual income above the UK median and none within the lower quartile, by 2013. In 2011, in its advice to the then Minister for Education and Skills on the Future Structure of Universities in Wales4, HEFCW recommended changes to the current structure of HE provision in North East (NE) Wales, advising that Glyndŵr University should develop strong structural relationships with a range of further education (FE) colleges within a group structure led by Aberystwyth and Bangor Universities. The Minister rejected HEFCW’s advice with regard to Glyndŵr, on the basis that there appeared to be a case for considering more closely the existing pattern of provision in NE Wales and for examining further the options for securing greater regional coherence in the delivery of further and higher education. We were appointed as an expert Review Panel in February 2012 to undertake the Review of Higher Education Provision in North East Wales and to advise the Minister on what form of HE will best serve the economic, social and learner needs of the region. 1.2 Our Approach The Review Panel approached its work with an open mind and did not begin with any notions of structural change, but with the questions "What does NE Wales need of HE?" and "What should the goals and desired outcome be?" This immediately raised the question of whether a HE presence was needed at all in NE Wales as the region is served by a number of strong and well regarded HE Institutions in North West (NW) England and it has a relatively small population base. The Review Panel quickly concluded that the region needs a strong HE presence. 2 A copy of For Our Future – The 21st Century Higher Education Strategy and Plan for Wales can be found at: http://wales.gov.uk/topics/educationandskills/publications/guidance/forourfuture/?lang=en . 3 A copy of HEFCW’s Corporate Strategy for 2010-11 to 2012-13 can be found at: http://www.hefcw.ac.uk/publications/corporate_documents/corporate_strategy.aspx . 4 A copy of HEFCWs report on The Future Structure of Universities in Wales can be found at: http://wales.gov.uk/consultations/education/heinwales/?lang=en . - 2 - Review of Higher Education Provision in North East Wales During the period of the review, responses to the earlier stakeholder engagement exercise on the Future Structure of Higher Education in Wales were revisited. The Review Panel also undertook an extensive stakeholder engagement exercise. By the end of the review over 160 stakeholder interviews had been carried out including those with education, local authority, political, employer and industry representatives. Alongside this, the Review Panel considered over one hundred individual items of data and research information. In reaching our conclusions, we have drawn on the stakeholder contributions and the wider evidence base. 1.3 Profile of the Region The population of the region, at just over 381,000, is not large, is quite substantially rural or semi-rural, but with a concentration of comparatively small urban centres in the eastern corridor. Whilst the overall population is projected to increase, the 16-24 and working age population is projected to decline over the next 5, 10 and 20 years. Overall deprivation in the region is below the Welsh average. Nevertheless the region plays host to some of the most deprived areas in Wales. This includes the most deprived area (Rhyl West 2). Employment rates in NE Wales are above, and unemployment rates are below the Welsh and UK averages. Gross Value Added and Gross Disposable Household Income for the region as a whole are above the Welsh average and below the UK average. The NE Wales economy is an important driver of the Welsh economy as a whole and is diverse, but with a major concentration by UK standards of advanced manufacturing in Flintshire and to a lesser extent in Wrexham. Few of the major manufacturing companies have their headquarters based in the region. There is a widespread view amongst stakeholders that this leaves the region vulnerable as decisions about the future of these businesses are likely to be taken outside the region. The proportion of people with their highest skill at Level 3 has consistently been at or above the Welsh average; the proportion with their highest skill level at 4 and above is below the Welsh average, despite improvement in recent years. Projected occupational trends suggest a growing demand for higher level skills, including in the professions and management. Taken together, these skills data suggest a possible skills gap, and growing demand, at graduate and possibly postgraduate levels. This is not borne out by recent employer survey data, but these data may mask skills shortages at the highest levels in advanced manufacturing (see Chapter 5) as well as reflect the wider economic downturn. There will be replacement demand at all skills levels in the foreseeable future. - 3 - Review of Higher Education Provision in North East Wales NE Wales is very well served by established HE and FE institutions based in the region and across the border in NW England and in NW Wales. Of the 9,551 HE enrolments5 in the region in 2011/12, 3,896 were full-time HE enrolments and 5,655 part-time; full-time enrolments were largely at first degree level, part-time largely at sub-degree level. Glyndŵr University is by far the largest provider of HE in the region. In 2011/12, there were 7,578 enrolments at Glyndŵr’s campuses in NE Wales – excluding franchised provision – (79 per cent of all HE delivered in the region). This included 3,460 undergraduate first degree enrolments, 3,121 sub-degree enrolments and 997 postgraduate enrolments. Glyndŵr’s total student population, including franchised provision and those studying at campuses outside of NE Wales was 9,535 of which 4,055 were from overseas.6 The Open University (OU) was the second largest provider of HE in the region in 2011/12 with 1,132 learners (12 per cent) enrolled on distance learning courses. 475 learners were enrolled on franchised HE in FE courses with Yale College, Deeside College and Grŵp Llandrillo Menai. There is a general shortage of undergraduate provision delivered in NE Wales and a number of quite prominent subject gaps, although many of these are catered for by other HE institutions in North and Mid Wales and by the nearby University of Chester.