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Ending Hunger in Africa

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Ending Hunger in Africa Ending Hunger in Africa THE ELIMINATION OF HUNGER AND FOOD INSECURITY ON THE AFRICAN CONTINENT BY 2025 - Conditions for Success - Steve Hedden, Barry B. Hughes, Dale S. Rothman, Alanna J. Markle, and Joel Maweni Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures; University of Denver Dr Ibrahim A. Mayaki NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency PB 1 NEPAD Eliminating Hunger Report Summary Forward Acknowledgements 2 3 Executive Summary 3 1. Introduction 9 1.1. Motivations for Report 9 1.2. Plan of Report 10 2. Key Concepts 11 2.1. Defning and Measuring Hunger and Food Insecurity 11 2.2. Determinants of Hunger and Food Insecurity 12 2.3. Methodology 13 3. Snapshot of the Contemporary African Agricultural Balance 14 4. Hunger in Africa – The Current Path 16 4.1 Hunger: Food Access 16 4.2 Immediate Hunger Determinants: Population and Calorie Consumption 19 4.3 Food Security: Availability 20 4.4 Immediate Determinants of Food Security: Demand and Production 21 4.5 Summarizing Prospective Food Demand and Supply in 2025 22 4.6 Requirements for Eliminating Hunger and Creating Food Security 23 5. Levers for Action 25 5.1. Efective Demand and Access 25 5.1.1 Government Transfers 26 5.1.2 Poverty Reduction and Subsistence Farming 27 5.2 Availability of Supply 29 5.2.1 Yields 29 5.2.2 Land 31 5.2.3 Investment 32 5.2.4 Aquaculture 33 5.3 Loss 34 5.3.1 Scale of Losses. 34 5.3.2 Addressing Transformation Loss 35 5.4 Summary of Interventions for Alternative Scenario Analysis 37 6. ScenarioAnalysis: NoHungerandHighSecurity 39 6.1 African Food Access and Hunger 39 6.2 African Food Security (Independence) 41 6.3 Regional Variation: Food Access and Hunge 42 6.4 Regional Variation: Food Production and Security 44 Conclusion 46 Appendix 1: FAO’s Suite of Food Security Indicators 48 Appendix 2: The International Futures (IFs) Forecasting System 49 Appendix 3: Underweight Children 50 Appendix 4: Fertility Rate Sensitivity Analysis 54 Bibliography 55 NEPAD Eliminating Hunger Report Summary FOREWORD 2 33 frica’s Agenda 2063 endorsed by the January 2015 presents new original perspectives on key conditions AAU Summit is an articulation of the continent’s and drivers necessary to realise set Agenda 2063 renewed resolve and determination to accelerate broad- goals. The focus of the study is on the target to “Zero based and sustainable economic growth and inclusive Hunger by 2025” which is also a key goal and target in development. This is a presentation of the Continent’s the African Union’s Malabo Declaration on agriculture political agenda in terms of ambitions, goals and targets transformation (June 2014). driven by the growing urge to ensure action is leading to Bringing out the multi-sectoriality and inter-disciplinary tangible and measureable results and impact. With both nature of addressing food security and nutrition, the the Agenda 2063 and the SDGs now in place, attention study helps to put in perspective the magnitude of the is shifting, and rightly so, towards IMPLEMENTATION, i.e. task “to zero hunger by 2025”. What does this target securing and aligning necessary capacity and systems mean given anticipated numbers of people? What to deliver on the set goals and targets. The commitment amounts and quality of food and hence what policies, to results and impact implies it is not enough “just to do investments, technologies as well as human skills and things”. Also in the context of accountability, it is critical capacity would be necessary to sustain desired levels that ACTION is efective and efcient, refecting the best- of supply? What about access to quality food for all use-of-the- resources to deliver on the set targets. populations and therefore zero hunger? This will require careful and in many cases highly The study report, hence, will support government elaborate examination of key decision points dialogue and consultations to examine, determine including policies, investment structures, institutional and navigate economic growth and inclusive arrangements and capacity as well as partnerships and development pathways, which are realistically built on alliances. This also in many instances will imply making local circumstances and driven by local and regional- difculty decisions in terms of trade-of between continental ambitions. In this regard, the analysis also “now” and the “future” or between one section of the presents the current pathways on food security and population compared to another. hunger with an almost obvious conclusion that business- This study, undertaken jointly between the NEPAD as-usual will not deliver “eliminating hunger and food Agency and the University of Denver’s insecurity by 2025” Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures is The NEPAD Agency and the University of Denver’s Pardee meant to give access to policy and programme leaders Center are pleased to put this study report in the hands expert information and knowledge to enable evidence- of Governments and regional bodies to inform, stimulate based dialogue and consultations in determining and possibly guide national level critical analysis and national specifc pathways and enhance key milestones determination of national pathways that will work to in the eforts to realise the growth and development eliminate hunger and food insecurity by 2025 targets agreed in Agenda 2063 and the SDGs. The study Dr. Barry B. Hughes Dr Ibrahim A. Mayaki Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency University of Denver NEPAD Eliminating Hunger Report Summary ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4 5 The Report “Ending Hunger in Africa - Conditions for factors and trends in determining locally appropriate Success” was prepared by a joint task team within pathways to eliminate hunger and food insecurity by the long-standing collaboration between the NEPAD 2025 Agency and the Pardee Center, University of Denver. From framing of the study scope through the actual The NEPAD Agency and the Pardee Center, University of review and analysis to the preparation and production Denver continued to collaborate in generating evidence- of the report, the work benefted immensely from the based analytical foresight on key issues in fostering knowhow and valuable insights and critical input of staf implementation and desired impact in Africa’s socio- in the NEPAD Agency and the Pardee Centre staf. We economic advances. here express heartfelt gratitude to all that contributed The study was undertaken under the overall guidance in one way of the other to the study and production of and intellectual leadership of Dr Ibrahim Mayaki, CEO, this report. Special mention in this regard is Jonathan D. NEPAD Agency and Dr Barry B. Hughes, Pardee Center, Moyer and Lisa Filholm University of Denver. Martin Bwalya The Report specially, trigged by the expressed questions Head, Programme Development and Study Task by member states through the NEPAD organs is a direct efort to inform the political and policy discourse on key Team Focal point person; NEPAD Agency NEPAD Eliminating Hunger Report Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 5 The African Union has set a target to “eliminate undernourishment rate in Northern Africa. Unfortunately, hunger and food insecurity by 2025.” Both Agenda the total number of undernourished Africans has climbed 2063 and the African Union Summit decision on since 1991, largely driven by increasing population. East Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation Africa has the highest levels of hunger in terms of both have reafrmed this commitment (African Union, 2014, prevalence and absolute numbers—about half of the 2015). Unfortunately, Africa is not currently on track to total undernourished population of the continent is in its meet these targets. Immediate, mutually reinforcing Eastern region. interventions are required to bring the continent closer On the supply side, Africa was not producing enough to eliminating hunger and food insecurity. food to feed its own population adequately in the early The purposes of this report are (1) to describe the path 1990s, but its exports and imports of agricultural goods that Africa has been on with respect to reducing hunger were both relatively small and in balance. Imports have and pursuing food security, (2) to show where that path since grown to be over four times the level of exports (in would likely lead in the coming years without signifcant tons), and net imports are now about 14 percent of total change in policy, and (3) to outline the conditions and agricultural demand. actions necessary to put Africa on track to eliminating To analyze whether or not Africa is on track to eliminate hunger and food insecurity as soon as possible. hunger and food insecurity by 2025, this research uses The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system. IFs, and Nations (FAO) defnes hunger, or undernourishment, this research, draws heavily on data from the FAO and as an inability to acquire enough food to satisfy dietary other international sources. The Base Case scenario of energy requirements. Food security is a situation IFs considers historical patterns to explore the dynamic where all people at all times have access to food and is future path of Africa. composed of four dimensions: food availability, economic Looking at the path going forward, without substantial and physical access to food, food utilization, and stability change in the dynamics of demand and supply, the over time. This report will mainly focus on the prevalence portion of Africans who are undernourished will fall from of undernourishment and net dependence on imports about 17 percent in 2015 to about 12 percent in 2025. as the two indicators of hunger and food security, Over the same period, the import dependence of Africa respectively.1 will rise from 14 percent of total demand to 25 percent. Nearly one in fve people living in Africa is hungry.2 Africa is not on track to eliminate hunger and food That rate has decreased steadily since the mid- 1990s, insecurity by 2025.
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