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Enduring Elements of Strategy for Irregular Warfare By Gary Kemister Thesis submitted in partial requirement for the degree of Masters of Philosophy (MPhil) School of Humanities and Social Sciences University of New South Wales Australian Defence Force Academy 2013 1 Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................. 3 Chapter 1 Selected History of Conventional Warfare and Related Theories of Warfare ... 8 Ancient European Warfare ............................................................................................................. 9 Ancient Rome .................................................................................................................................. 9 Ancient China ................................................................................................................................ 10 Renaissance Italy ........................................................................................................................... 12 The Napoleonic Era ....................................................................................................................... 13 Modern Warfare ........................................................................................................................... 17 Proposed Inputs to Warfare ......................................................................................................... 21 Chapter 2 Selected History of Irregular Warfare .......................................................... 23 Revolts in the Roman Empire - Judea ........................................................................................... 24 United States War of Independence ............................................................................................. 25 The Spanish Guerrilla War against Napoleon ............................................................................... 26 The Arab Revolt in World War 1 ................................................................................................... 28 The Chinese Civil War 1927-1950 ................................................................................................. 29 Malaya – 1948-1960 ..................................................................................................................... 31 The Vietnam War 1947-1975 ........................................................................................................ 32 El Salvador ..................................................................................................................................... 34 Iraq ................................................................................................................................................ 36 Discussion...................................................................................................................................... 37 Chapter 3 Review of Selected Theories of Irregular Warfare ........................................ 42 Charles. E. Callwell ........................................................................................................................ 42 T E Lawrence ................................................................................................................................. 44 Mao Zedong .................................................................................................................................. 45 Sir Robert Thomson ...................................................................................................................... 48 David Galula .................................................................................................................................. 50 John Nagl ....................................................................................................................................... 52 David Kilcullen ............................................................................................................................... 53 Discussion...................................................................................................................................... 54 Chapter 4 – Identification of the Enduring Elements of Strategy for Irregular Warfare . 55 An Optimised Approach to Irregular Warfare .............................................................................. 56 Enduring Elements of Strategy for Irregular Warfare ................................................................... 64 Conclusion: Review of Thesis and Future Work ............................................................ 68 Bibliography ............................................................................................................... 71 Diagram references ....................................................................................................................... 74 2 Introduction History is replete with human conflict ranging from the personal to the international, from the instinctive to the calculated. A large amount of effort in many communities and civilisations has been expended trying to understand why and how these conflicts come about and how to influence these conflicts for the benefit of the community. In the area of personal conflict the efforts have been to try and minimise or even eliminate these conflicts. In the area of national or international conflict, however, most effort has been expended in trying to maximise the chances of the nation winning any conflict. This has led to a large body of work on the theory of warfare and the overall aim of this thesis is to contribute to this body of work. The aim of this thesis is to identify underlying common themes or principles that apply to irregular warfare in an enduring manner. A framework for identifying these enduring elements of strategy will be developed by reviewing the understanding of conventional warfare including the well-understood theories of how to conduct a conventional warfare campaign. This framework will then be used to systematically analyse historical examples and significant theories of irregular warfare to identify enduring elements of strategy that apply to irregular warfare. The enduring elements of strategy for irregular warfare will allow for an improved understanding of how irregular warfare should be approached in any specific circumstance. This approach to irregular warfare is an attempt to use a broad analysis of both conventional and irregular warfare to develop a general understanding of how irregular warfare has been (and by inference is likely in the future to be) conducted. This is in contrast to the majority of work on both conventional and irregular warfare which operates from an inductive or hermeneutic approach that relies heavily on a single or a few examples from which to extrapolate a general understanding. Examples of the inductive approach used in the theory of irregular warfare are the works of Robert Thompson (Malaya) and John Nagl (Malaya and Vietnam). The inductive military approach is usually used by practitioners who have a deep knowledge of current operations and who can appreciate how the current operations differ from preceding operations. This approach is especially noticeable during times of transformative warfare, such as the Napoleonic Wars, the World Wars and the rise of Revolutionary Guerrilla Warfare. The broad analysis approach used in this thesis is similar to the approach of Vasquez1 to analyse the reasons why war occurs or a type of meta-analysis used by John Hunter2 but without the statistics. Military theory generally combines an historical analysis of military campaigns and a generalisation of that analysis to give a projection of how best to approach a military problem both now and in the future. Historical analysis, as one of the social sciences, usually follows the hermeneutic approach3, that is, gaining an understanding of events through an interpretation of the meanings of various actions. This implies that the approach must be subjective in nature as “an action can only be interpreted because it is based on a radically subjective attribution of meaning and values to what one does”. 4 Military theory developed using the hermeneutic approach can place strong and 1 John A. Vasquez, The War Puzzle Revisited, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2009. 2 John E Hunter and Frank L Schmidt, Methods of Meta-Analysis: Correcting Error and Bias in Research Findings, Newbury Park, California, 1990. 3 See for example, Sherratt, Yvonne. 2006. Continental philosophy of social science: hermeneutics, genealogy, critical theory. Cambridge ; New York: Cambridge University Press. 4 http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/weber/ accessed 7th March 2013. 3 sometimes undue emphasis on the analysis of the most recent military campaigns which is perhaps the basis for the old adage that “generals are always prepared to fight the last war”.5 If the future war is not significantly different from the most recent war then this approach can be a reasonable and valid method in trying to maximise the chance of success. If the future war is significantly different than the most recent war then such an approach can be misleading or even disastrous in its outcomes. Scientific empiricism, by contrast, focuses on determining causal relationships in any situation and relies on the testing of any hypothesis against observations either in experiments or in the real world. Scientific empiricism aims for “a theory