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Fall 2003, Vol LandLandThe EconomistEconomist Fall 2003, Vol. 33, No.3 Design, & building prognosis pos is positive . 2 Canada has been performing better than the US whose economy is beginning to surge. Good news for Canada’s business. Island airport expansion queuing queuing up . 4 After three years, airline magnate Robert Deluce’s vision for Toronto’s island airport is unfolding. News Briefs . 5 Healthy investment • Deep water cools towers • Five new malls? 2003-2004 Council . 6 ROM steel turns green . 6 Steel from the Royal Ontario Museum will be used in the new student centre at University of Toronto at Scarborough. President’s message . 7 Incoming President John Morrison sees the website, The Land Economist and dinner meetings as effective tools to build me mbership. Welcome new members . 7 Legislative Beat . 8 Election results • What to expect Professional Journal of the ASSOCIATION of ONTARIO LAND ECONOMISTS 1235 Bay Street, Suite 400 Toronto, Ontario M5R 3K4 Tel: (416) 934-5166 Fax: (416) 969-8916 Website: www.aole.org E-mail: [email protected] Construction Design & and Major Trades by Dan O’Reilly Despite the setbacks created by SARS, mad cow disease, and the August blackout, the Costs for Toronto Area pr ognosis for the Canadian economy, Information provided by Pelican Woodcliff Inc. especially the design and building sectors, remains positive, participants at a rec e n t CanaData construction industry forec a s t s Commercial/Institutional Buildings co n f e r ence in Tor onto were told. $ cost/sq. ft. above grade “Canada has been perfo r ming better than the U.S.,” said CanaData economist Alex Of fi c e Of fi c e Un d e rg rn d Pa r k i n g Sc h o o l s Ho s p i t a l s Nu r s i n g Ca r rick, one of a number of keynote ab o v e ab o v e Pa r k i n g De c k Ho m e s speakers at the two-day conference. gr a d e gr a d e “If the U.S. economy does recover there Class A Class B will be an impact on Canadian exports , ” 20 20 0 0 0 0 11 3 10 5 48 30 11 0 20 0 11 3 Ca r rick said. He predicted the Bank of 20 20 0 1 0 1 12 5 11 6 52 32 11 8 22 0 11 9 Canada will try to use its monetary policies 20 20 0 2 0 2 12 6 11 7 54 33 12 1 23 1 12 3 to keep the Canadian dollar within the 20 20 0 3 0 3 12 8 . 5 11 9 55 33 . 5 12 5 24 3 12 6 range of 72 to 74 cents American to avoid a negative impact on those exports — which in turn could hurt Canada’s economy. Some of the highlights of his forecast for High Rise Residential 2003 included predictions national housing (with underground parking) st a r ts will hit 205,000 units, 36.5 million $ cost/sq. ft. above grade sq u a r e feet of commercial construc t i o n st a r ts and 33.5 million square feet in institutional construc t i o n . Do w n t o w n Mi d t o w n Su b u r b a n Pr em i u m Pr em i u m 9’ ceiling units under Two other economists presented similar 600 sq ft assessments: Glen Hodgson, vice pres i d e n t 2000 104 102 99 3 7 and deputy chief economist with Export 2001 114 111 108 3 8 Development Canada and Don Drum m o n d , senior vice president and chief economist, 2002 120 115 112 3 9 TD Bank Financial Group. “Apart from 2003 126 119.5 116.5 4 9 non-Japan southeast Asia, the world economy outside of North America Steel ($/tonne) Rebar ($/tonne) Industrial/Retail Buildings $ cost/sq. ft. above grade Ware h o u s e St r i p Big Box Re g i o n a l with offi c e Ma l l Re t a i l Ma l l 20’ clear ht. 2000 35 34 40 34 2001 39 36 43 36 2002 40 37 44 37 2003 41 38.5 45 38.5 00 01 02 03 00 01 02 03 2 building prognosis is positive continues to struggle. But there is good revamping and revitalization of shopping Ma r tin follows through on his promise to news for Canada — after a two-year ce n t r es, the audience was told. To dedicate a portion of the fuel taxes for st r uggle, the U.S. economy is finally regenerate interest, malls are adding more municipal infrastruc t u r e when he beginning to surge, buoyed by massive amenities, restaurants and enterta i n m e n t becomes prime minister, Ferguson said. amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus,” facilities, explained Adrienne Goddard, Wat e r main and sewer construction in said Drum m o n d . consultant with Kubas Consultants, a Ontario will also accelerate as municip- Still, the audience of private sector Tor onto-based marketing res e a r ch and alities work to res t o r e those services as builders, designers and consultants, and consulting firm. One example is the $40 req u i r ed by the prov i n c e ’ s new go v e r nment officials received a diverse million facelift of the Eaton Centre in Sustainable Water and Sewage System review of where the construction industry Toro n t o . Act, Ferguson added. (The act was one of is headed. In f r a s t ru c t u r e the recommendations in Justice O’ C o n n o r ’s Wal k e r ton Inquiry rep o rt ) . Off i c e / c o m m e rc i a l The forecast for civil engineering That direction doesn’t anticipate ma s s i v e co n s t r uction was more mixed. Road and Hospital, health care and school new office construction in Tor onto as highway projects have slowed down co n s t r uction is another expanding sector, corporations reduce their demand for during the past two years because of said Barbara Miszkiel, principal with of fice space through layoffs, outsourci n g slower economic growth, said Lloyd Tor onto-based Dunlop Architects Inc. The and the growth of home offices, said John Fe r guson, general manager of Oakville- capital need in Ontario for acute care O’ T oole, executive vice-president and based Dufferin Construction Company and facilities is $6 billion, said Miszkiel, citing managing director CB Richard Ellis a Canadian Construction Association Ontario Hospital Association statistics. di re c t o r . Limited. With the layoffs that have Ca r rick also pointed to the rev e r b e r a t i o n s oc c u r red in office employment, tenants’ “When this (slowdown) happens, capital of the extensive arts and culture facility vacant office space could rise to 20 per spending projects tend to be among the co n s t r uction, mostly in Tor onto, being cent, he said, compared to the traditional first to be chopped in order to keep driven in large part by the contributions se v e n . budgets in line. The easiest way to save a of wealthy philanthrop i s t s . lot of money is to stop tendering proj e c t s . ” But there are opportunities in the Re s i d e n t i a l renovation and upgrade of older, less- Compounding the slowdown is the federal On the residential side, national housing ef ficient buildings for owners rev a m p i n g go v e rn m e n t ’ s “very ad hoc, unpred i c t a b l e st a r ts this year should reach 206,900 those buildings to meet increased and manner” of funding road and highway units and then drop to 189,100 units in changing tenant needs. As an example, pr ojects and the failure of the Ontario 2004 as housing demands are met, said O’ T oole cited a tenant issue study his firm go v e r nment to endorse the $600-million Peter Norman, forecaster with Toro n t o - conducted that placed the need for Strategic Highway Invest-ment Prog r a m based Clayton Research. Housing da y c a r e facilities and HVAC quality on a (SHIP) announced in Ottawa’s 2001 co n s t r uction has been the “shining star” higher priority list than in a 1993 study. budget. But investments in roa d while the rest of the economy has been Another growth area is the ren o v a t i o n , co n s t r uction should increase if Paul slowing steadily since early 2002, he said. Ho w e v e r , better economic grow t h should be ahead. The US economy is improving, and the Canadian Electrical ($/s.f.) Mechanical ($/s.f.) Formwork ($/s.f.) dollar is likely to decline, which will help spur exports. “In addition,” Norman said, “Canadian businesses are spending more money on inventories, machinery, equipment and construction in recent months – a sure sign of op t i m i s m .
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