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Life Cycle Concept and Management Practice in Industry Life Cycle Concept and Management Practice in Industry E. RAZVIGOROVA and J. ACS: Editors PROCEEDINGS OF THE WORKSHOP HELD IN SOFIA, BULGARIA "Life Cycle Theory and Management Practice" April 27-29,1987 NOT FOR QUOTATIOX WITHOUT PERMISS 10% OF THE ALTHOR LIFE CYCLE CONCEPT AND MANAGEMENT PRACTICE IN INDUSTRY E. Razvigorova and J. Acs Editors September 1988 WP-88-84 PROCEEDINGS OF THE WORKSHOP HELD IN SOFIA, BULGARIA "Life Cycle Theory and Management Practice" April 27-29, 1987 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria FOREWORD The papers included in these proceedings were presented at the workshop, "Life Cycle Theory and Management Practice," held in Sofia, April 27-29, 1987. The objective of this workshop was to discuss the main lines of the life cycle concept and its possible applications in manage- ment. Special emphasis was put on company level. The example of steel industry was used for in-depth discussions, but some con- clusions and illustrations from other industries (more or less related to steel) were also discussed. The continuing need to innovate and develop technologies and products and their diffusion usually necessitates many changes: in market position, both international and domestic; in produc- tivity and capacity utilization; in social impact and expecta- tions. The transition periods between different stages of this development are sometimes painful and difficult. How management succeeds in coping with change and how management itself changes with the dynamics of technology are important research questions. The workshop was designed in three main parts, which struc- ture is reflected in the design of the proceedings. The first group of papers is devoted to the life cycle concept ar.d diffusion patterns of different technologies. The second group of papers discusses different transition periods and applications of the life cycle concept in the steel industry, including practical examples of management and business strategies in different steel companies. The third group of papers concentrates on management issues and possible applications of the life cycle concept in management. Attempts to formulate some general issues and con- clusions were made. In order to use all the valuable contributions made during the workshop, the editors have permitted themselves to include transcripts of various discussions held during the workshop, as a great deal of important and interesting material was presented in this informal manner. Selections from the relevant discussions follow each group of papers. F. Schmidt-Bleek Leader Technology, Economy & Society Program TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY 1. LIFE CYCLE CONCEPT: PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY, POSSIBILITIES AND PROBLEMS 1.1. TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS IN ECONOMICS: ON THEORIES OF INNOVATION AND THE LIFE CYCLE -- R. Ayres 1.2. THE TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY: A FEW SKEPTICAL QUESTIONS -- C. De Bresson 1.3. DIFFUSION RATES OF STEEL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS -- I. Tchijov 1.4. SESSION ONE DISCUSSION 2. WORLD TRENDS, STRATEGIC OPTIONS, AND NATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY 2.1. THE FUTURE OF STEEL: INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK -- G. Rosegger 2.2. MANAGEMENT ISSUES IN INDUSTRIAL CRISIS: THE CASE OF STEEL -- W. Goldberg 2.3. RISK RETURN PARADOX AND INNOVATION MANAGEMENT IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY -- J. Acs 2.4. LABOUR AND SOCIAL EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES IN THE IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY -- 0. Stepanov 2.5. ASSESSMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TECHNOLOGY AND OF ITS MANAGEMENT -- G. Nachev 2.6. MANAGEMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE RESEARCH AND INDUSTRIAL ENTER- PRISE "ELECTROTERMIA" -- V. Peev and G. Kiossev 2.7. SESSION TWO DISCUSSION 3. MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS, METHODOLOGICAL AND PRACTICAL ISSUES 3.1. MANAGEMENT AND THE TECHNOLOGICAL LIFE CYCLE: CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY -- E. Razvigorova 3.2. INNOVATIONS, INVARIANCES AND ANALOGIES: COMMENTS ON THE LIFE CYCLE THEORY AND THE FORECASTING OF FUTURE TRENDS IN FLEXIBLE PRODUCTION AUTOYATION -- J. Ranta 3.3. TIME, SPACE, INNOVATIOK MAKACEMEKT AND THE LIFE CYCLE CONCEPT -- S. Lundstedt 3.4. A SYSTEM-APPROACH TO INNOVATION AND THE IXTER- RELATIONSHIP OF BRANCHES OF SCIENCE -- B. Szanto 3.5. COMPANY SIZE AND INNOVATION ACTIVITY IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY -- M. Maly 3.6. LEADERSHIP IN DIFFERENT PHASES OF THE LIFE CYCLE: CASE STUDIES OF U.K. STEEL MANAGERS -- J. Liebenau, with C. Shaw 3.7. SESSION THREE DISCUSSION APPENDIX 1: List of Participants APPENDIX 2: Agenda SUMMARY The workshop "Life Cycle Theory and Management Practice" demonstrated the widespread acceptance of the life cycle concept in the scientific community and in management practice. Based on a summary of the main terms and the various stages of life cycles for products, processes, and industries, and an description of the relationships between these phases and various aspects of organizations, industries and products, the value of using different life cycle concepts and the importance of the managerial life cycle for a firm's strategic management was demon- strated and discussed. Examples were given from several different industries, including steel, to clarify the development, struc- tural change, substitution and diffusion of technology within the framework of the life cycle concept. As the relevant discussions show, the life cycle concept can explain the various trends, developments, time-lags, and diffusion patterns and problems in the steel industry and others as well. A new approach making it possible to determine the end of the embryonic (or childhood) phase was also presented. Critical remarks on the life cycle concept, presented both in papers and during discussions, have shown the need for further empirical tests and theoretical research. Some advantages in planning and realizing innovations in the steel (and other) in- dustries based on the concept of the integrated life cycle as a tool in the management of innovations with broader time horizons were also demonstrated. The integrated life cycle includes the phases of invention, innovation, and (important for senescent industries) restructuring or liquidation. With the help of the integrated life cycle concept, the future state of a company could be simulated (in many aspects, better than by methods in use currently). Special software packages for computations are cur- rently being developed. Concentrating on the steel industry, its current problems and future development, possible changes in production and con- sumption were shown. The changing character of producer-consumer relations in the development of a company's strategy was em- phasized. The improved methodology for technological forecasting was also found to be a contributing factor to the development of an appropriate strategy. This, together with the growing importance of management issues during periods of industrial crisis based on the case of steel, as labor and social effects of technological change in this industry led to the conclusion of existing possibility to general- ize management issues and tasks along the life cycle of products, processes, and industries. Management of technological and organizational development and duplication of the life cycle concept in new technologies show the importance of case studies in studies of process life cycles and clarified some relations between different phases and management options. Many participants stressed the importance of case studies on life cycles in various industries in different countries. The presentations and discussions on the deeper connections of time, space, innovation management, and life cycle concepts as well as of systems approach to create a new model of innovation emphasize the inter-relationships of various sciences and neces- sity of inter-disciplinary approach to study the problem. In the above context, historical methodology was also discussed as a good contribution to developing an adequate management model. Using the life cycle concept on the macro-level, the com- panies' behavior can be studied from the managerial and organiza- tional points of view. Such studies could be done, not only in the steel industry, but also in other branches such as textiles or robotics. Analysis based not only on statistical data and questionnaires, but on case studies and on in-depth interviews involving companies could give useful insights for the theory and management practice of life cycles. The role of product specialization and differentiation in the life cycle and in the companies' strategy was stressed by many participants. The problem of correct timing and the use of Foster's S-curve ought to be studied and developed as management tools. Interesting examples of how some companies prosper by switching from one obsolete technology to an upcoming one at the right time were discussed. In this connection, the timing deci- sion was defined as an important one. Until now, there are no definite criteria available to determine the appropriate time to switch from one technology to another. At the beginning of a new development, many approaches evolve simultaneously before a winn- ing paradigm appears. Comparing behavior patterns in different companies within the same industry, or even between industries, was accepted as the direction of a study which could help to clarify the possible generalization of the life cycle concept as a useful management tool. An important issue in developing the possible methodologies for determining the right decisions in changing technologies was defined to
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