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ITC Ltd Buy | Rs 12 th Feb 2008 ITC Ltd Buy | Rs. 185 Going strong...and beyond cigarettes!!! Stock Data Company description ITC is the leading cigarette manufacturer and marketer in Market Cap 69606 Cr India with 74% value market share. ITC’s cigarette P/E 26 portfolio consists of strong brands such as Wills, Gold EPS 7 flake, India Kings& Scissors and two of BAT’s global brands Book Value 28 52 W High 227 Benson&Hedges and State Express 555. The company has 52 W Low 140 also diversified into multiple businesses like hotels, paperboards and specialty papers, agri business, packaged foods and confectionery, branded apparel, Share Price Movement 1 yr greeting cards and personal care products. ITC has channelised the huge cash flows generated from the 250 cigarette business into its other businesses and has 200 ramped up its e-choupal network to 6400+ kiosks and 21 150 choupal sagars, reaching out to over 3.5 mn farmers. 100 Key highlights • Improving cigarette sales growth 50 • Strong growth momentum in the FMCG sector 0 • Best long term large cap pick in the consumer sector • Expansion of hotel chain in the mid market segment Share Holding Pattern (%) • Good defensive stock in the current volatile market FIIs 13.96 Q3 Performance MFs/UTI 14.73 Insurance Cos 22.59 ITC recorded 11% yoy growth in revenues at Rs3458. The core Foreign Corp Bodies 32 cigarette segment recorded 7.6% yoy growth at Rs3530 crores Others 16.72 despite higher excise burden. The Government had increased excise duty by 6% in the current fiscal. We believe the Revenue Mix cigarette volume decline during the quarter was below 2%. The non-cigarette businesses recorded 12.2% yoy growth at Rs2240 crores driven by strong 50% yoy growth in FMCG (led by branded packaged foods - 60%, biscuits – 58%, FMCG- Others, 9 confectionary – 38%, lifestyle retailing - 26%), 11.2% yoy growth in paper and packaging and 11.4% yoy rise in hotels’ Hotels, 5 Cigarettes, 65 segment. Revenues from the agri segment, however, declined by 9.4% yoy to Rs6.6bn due to restrictions on the export of Agri Business, 13 non-basmati rice. While the Company's Pre-tax Profit for the Paper Boards quarter at Rs. 1226 crores registered a growth of 15.5%, Post- & Packaging, 6 tax profit at Rs. 831 crores grew by 15.8%. Earnings Per Share Others, 2 for the quarter stood at Rs. 2.21. INVESTMENT POSITIVES • Improving cigarette sales growth from 2H FY08 Given ITC’s dominant market share, a buoyant economy, ITC’s cigarette business has been under significant pressure in increasing purchasing power of 2007. Q2 FY08 saw the twin impact of VAT (12.5%) and UP state consumers and high entry barriers, tax (33.5%) along with a simultaneous Excise Duty hike of 6%. the top line and margins in cigarettes will continue to grow as The cigarette division posted gross revenue at Rs.35.29bn the demand for cigarettes is price (excluding VAT) with growth of 7.6% during Q3 FY08. EBIT inelastic in the longer term. margin of the division has improved to 27.2% during the quarter as against 25.3% in Q3FY07. We believe that the cigarette volumes will revive by the end of this fiscal which will cap the overall negative growth in volumes for the full year. The imposition of VAT in UP and abolition of trade tax is the positive signal as this will improve company’s margins in coming quarters. In FY08, we expect the cigarette volumes to decline by only 3% YoY on the back of the 20% price hikes in response to the rise in tax incidence. • Strong growth momentum in the FMCG (others) sector FMCG (others) sector comprises of Branded Packaged Foods, Lifestyle The Branded Packaged Foods business is expected to break Retailing, Greeting, Gifting even in Q3FY08e and remains the focus of the company. The &Stationery, Matches and division is then expected to deliver high annual double digit Agarbattis. It is expected to grow sharply at 33.4% CAGR over FY07- growth in both revenues and profitability for the next five years, 10 and will be the fastest growing at least. FMCG division registered a strong 50% YoY growth in segment for ITC. net sales at Rs.6.55bn, versus Rs.4.36 in the corresponding quarter last year. Higher disposable incomes, a fast growing rural market, changing consumer habits, and an evolving modern retail structure augur well for this business, given ITC’s unparalled distribution network. The non-cigarette FMCG business derives synergies from ITC’s strong cigarette distribution network. • Expansion of hotel chain At present, Fortune, an Rs 240 ITC Hotels, which is operating all sub brands of hotels and crore brand, has 40 hotels (3,100 rooms) under its management properties under its subsidiary Fortune Park Hotels through control across 34 cities. ITC aims partnerships and joint ventures, plans to construct three hotels to operate in 65 cities with 6,000 on its own next fiscal. The hotels may come up in Kolkata, rooms over the next three years. Chennai and Bangalore at an estimated combined investment of Rs 120 crore. The Bangalore hotel is slated to come through by Q3FY09. This is ITC’s second hotel in Bangalore (the first being the Windsor) and is likely to be in the super luxury segment. The land near Chennai is already owned by ITC and is near the airport. Each of the three hotels planned will have at least 100 rooms. These hotels will come up on land owned by ITC Ltd. and will be operational before 2010 as part of the company's nationwide expansion plans. • Best long term large cap pick in the consumer sector ITC is the number one cigarette player in India with an 85% market We believe that ITC is a good share by value. It has a leadership position in every segment of the defensive stock in current volatile markets because of its market. It has built its leadership position because of significant strong pricing power and a investments in marketing, distribution, product design, innovation, benign cost and competitive manufacturing technology and quality. ITC’s expanded foods environment in its cigarettes portfolio, dominant presence in the rapidly expanding luxury business. hotels segment, strong product proposition in specialty paper, and robust agricultural produce sourcing channel make ITC a strong long-term Buy. Valuation and Recommendation The brand equity of ITC and the Despite higher excise burden and sharp price hike (which was hidden value in its retail and highest ever of 20%) ITC has posted a robust recovery in cigarette eChoupal business [an online revenues. Outlook for the non-cigarette businesses such as hotels information and marketing and paper remains positive with continued demand buoyancy. The portal for farmers] is yet not other FMCG segment is expected to turnaround by FY10. The agri captured in its price. segment is expected to record strong growth led by higher sourcing of agri products, expansion of portfolio and increased sales through e-choupal initiative. We expect the company to record revenue and net profit of Rs.13950 and Rs. 3200 respectively in FY08. At the current market price of Rs.185, the stock is trading at 14x FY10 EPS of Rs.13 Per share. We recommend buy on the stock with a price target of Rs.255 an upside of 38 %. Quarterly Performance Rs in Crores (FY08) Q1 Q2 Q3 Revenue 3325 3273 3458 EBIDT 1127 1032 1200 Financials (Rs in Crores) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E FY10E Net Sales 10318 12874 13954 16465 19758 PBIDT 3711 4454 4528 5161 5935 PAT 2314 2781 3206 4156 4819 EPS 6 7 8.5 11 13 Equity 375.52 376.22 376.6 376.6 376.6 Segmental Break-up (Rs in Crores) 3QFY07 3QFY08 YoY 9MFY07 9MFY08 YoY Revenue Cigarettes 3278 3529 7.6 9539 10243 7.4 Other FMCG 437 655 50.1 1206 1785 48 Hotels 282 314 11.4 681 761 11.7 Agri biz 732 663 (9.4) 2660 2790 4.9 Paper boards 543 604 11.2 1567 1745 11.4 Total 5272 5765 9.4 15653 17324 10.7 Inter segment (348) (413) 18.7 (1523) (1801) 18.3 Gross Income 4924 5352 14130 15523 9.8 EBIT Cigarettes 828 961 16 2431 2764 13.7 Other FMCG (46.5) (64.5) 38.7 (153.7) (145.6) (5.2) Hotels 118 138 16.3 234 268 14.7 Agri biz 22 28 28.1 115 92 (19.8) Paperboards 104 118 13.6 320 330 3.4 Total 1026 1181 15 2946 3308 12.4 Margins Cigarettes 25 27 1.97 26 27 1.51 Other FMCG (11) (10) 0.81 (13) (8) 4.58 Hotels 42 43.9 1.87 34.3 35.2 0.92 Agri biz 3 4.2 1.23 4.3 3.3 -1.02 Paperboards 19.2 19.6 0.42 20.4 18.9 -1.46 ITC Product Portfolio CATEGORY BRANDS 1. Cigarettes Insignia, India Kings, Classic, Gold Flake, Silk Cut, Navy Cut, Scissors, Capstan, Berkeley, Bristol, Flake, Benson & Hedges and State Express 555 2. FMCG- Others a. Staples Aashirvaad Atta, Salt, Spices b. Biscuits Sunfeast c. Salty Snacks Bingo d. Confectionery Candyman, Mint O e. Ready To Eat Kitchens of India, Aashirvaad Ready meals, Aashirvaad Instant Mix, Sunfeast Pasta f. Lifestyle Retailing Wills Lifestyle, John Players, Miss Players, Wills Signature g. Personal Care Essenza Di Wills, Fiama Di Wills h. Greeting, Gifting & Stationery Expressions, Paperkraft, Classmate, Saathi i. Matches & Incense Sticks Aim, I-Kno, VaxLit, Delite, Ship, Homelites, Mangaldeep 3.
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