Review of Emergency Response Provision:
Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Contents Introduction ...... 3 Description of Cluster ...... 4 Cluster Demographics and Population Risk Factors...... 5 Deprivation ...... 8 Overall Cluster Risk ...... 9 Dwellings ...... 9 Special Service ...... 10 Geodemographic Segmentation ...... 11 Cluster Geodemographic Segmentation ...... 12 Building Usage as a Risk Identifier ...... 14 Other Building Risk ...... 15 Sleeping Accommodation Risk ...... 15 Hospitals ...... 16 Care Homes ...... 17 HMOs ...... 18 Hotels ...... 19 Non Sleeping Accommodation Risk ...... 20 Factories or Warehouses ...... 21 Further Education Establishments ...... 22 Licensed Premises ...... 23 Offices ...... 24 Premises Open to the Public ...... 25 Other Sleeping Accommodation ...... 26 Other Workplaces ...... 27 Public Buildings...... 28 Schools ...... 29 Shops ...... 30 Specific Risks within the Cluster ...... 31 COMAH Sites...... 33 Infrastructure Risk ...... 34 Roads ...... 35 Rail ...... 36 Aviation ...... 37 Ports ...... 38 Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) ...... 39 Flooding ...... 40 Existing KFRS Arrangements ...... 41 Future Development ...... 43 Population and Housing ...... 44 Major Developments ...... 44
2 RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Introduction In order to effectively assess the fire cover provision which is required to achieve the stated aims of the Authority an assessment of the risk factors for Kent and Medway needs to be undertaken. This document forms part of a suite of Risk Profile documents which segment the county into 19 geographically identifiable areas thereby allowing for a simplification of the assessment of the county wide risk.
Kent and Medway Fire and Rescue Authority (KMFRA) divide the county into 19 clusters based on internal working arrangements and the day to day work activities of its personnel. These clusters have been in use since 2011 to analyse and report incident activity, creating a wealth of information which is used to gain a deep understanding of activity within each cluster. It therefore follows that these clusters be used as a backdrop to provide risk information, as this allows for a continuity of analysis across the RERP2 project. The map below illustrates these clusters.
Information regarding risk factors has been obtained from a number of sources in order to provide a detailed level of risk for individual cluster.
Much of the data within this document has been derived from information provided by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) a Government department charged with the collection and publication of statistics related to the economy, population and society. In March 2011 the ONS conducted the most recent census of the population. It is this information which is used extensively throughout this document as the most accurate census data available.
3
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Each Borough Council within Kent and Medway has produced a Local Development Plan. These documents detail the strategic developments which are planned for their area of responsibility, and as such are referenced to give an indication of the future risk within the cluster.
KMFRA have significant experience in planning for emergencies in sites of specific risk; as such numerous sites have been identified through previous internal work. These sites have been included within this document.
This document describes the risk factors found in the Larkfield cluster.
Description of Cluster The Larkfield cluster covers a geographical area of approximately 48 square miles and has a population of 66,637 people, a figure which represents 3.86% of Kent and Medway’s population.
A map showing the cluster can be seen below.
4
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Cluster Demographics and Population Risk Factors This is the most current and widely available information with which to highlight the population risk factors is the 2011 census data. This data has been used to describe the community composition of each cluster.
The following charts and tables provide information regarding the population, age and gender of the community which live within the Larkfield cluster.
The male to female ratio is comparable to the Kent and Medway average.
5
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
The age breakdown when compared to the Kent and Medway average indicates a lower proportion of 20-34 year olds live within the cluster.
Household types Total %
One Family - Married or Civil Partnership Couple - Dependent Children 5,317 20.12 One Family - Married or Civil Partnership Couple - No Children 3,934 14.89 One Person - Other 3,102 11.74 One Person - Aged 65 and Over 2,897 10.97 One Family - All Aged 65 and Over 2,515 9.52 One Family - Lone Parent - Dependent Children 1,756 6.65 One Family - Married or Civil Partnership Couple - All Children Non- 1,711 6.48 Dependent One Family - Cohabiting Couple - No Children 1,453 5.50 One Family - Cohabiting Couple - Dependent Children 1,315 4.98 One Family - Lone Parent - All Children Non-Dependent 846 3.20 Other - Other 812 3.07 Other - With Dependent Children 514 1.95 One Family - Cohabiting Couple - All Children Non-Dependent 170 0.64 Other - All Aged 65 and Over 78 0.30 Other - All Full-Time Students 0 0.00 Total households 26,420 Notes for Household types:
One family households are categorised by the presence of children into those with dependent children, those with non-dependent children only, and those with no children. Other households are categorised by the presence or absence of dependent children. Married includes those in a civil partnership. Households with dependent children include natural, adopted and step-children aged 0 to15 and those aged 16 to 18 in full-time education or training for work and living at home with parent(s) or grandparent(s) (excluding those who have a spouse, partner or child(ren) living in the household). Non-dependent children are all those living in a household with parent(s) or grandparent(s) who are not classified as dependent children. Other households include: households of more than one family; households comprised of unrelated adults sharing; those including one family and other unrelated adults; all full-time student households; and households in which all occupants are aged 65 and over. 6
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
In March 2011 there were 8,902 households with dependent children in the area. This represents 33.7% of households in the area. In addition 5,999 (22.71%) of households were comprised of a single person.
The Larkfield cluster has proportionally more married or Civil Partnership Couples when compared to the average for the rest of Kent and Medway.
7
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Deprivation The indices of deprivation are used to classify households based on four selected household characteristics:
Employment Education Health and disability Housing
The map below shows the deprivation levels for the Larkfield cluster by output area when compared to the rest of Kent. Using the indices of deprivation as an indicator, the darker areas represent progressively more deprived localities.
There is a well-established correlation between dwelling fires and the measures of individual household characteristics detailed above.
8
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Overall Cluster Risk Each Fire and Rescue Service has been provided with a tool with which to analyse risk within their area of responsibility. This tool is called the Fire Service Emergency Cover Toolkit, commonly referred to as FSEC.
FSEC can create a number of models relating to the risk within Kent and Medway area. The dwellings and special service models are detailed below as they provided the best representation of the work conducted by KMFRA and consist of incidents which present the highest level of risk to the community, namely Fires and Road Traffic Collisions.
Dwellings The dwellings model shown below shows the risks associated with the number of predicted fatalities within localised area. This risk is derived from a number of factors including, but not limited to, demographic factors, historic incidents with the local area, the response provided by KMFRA into the output area, and underlying risk derived from nationally recognised risk factors such as the number of pensioners or the amount of rented accommodation within the area.
9
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Special Service (RTC) The special service model shown below shows the RTC risks associated with the number of predicted fatalities within a localised area. This risk is derived from the amount of RTC incidents within a predefined area of the road network and other geographical features where rescues may be necessary.
10
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Geodemographic Segmentation Geodemographic segmentation refers to a range of methods which can be used to classify and characterise neighbourhoods or localities based on the principal that people who live near each other are likely to have similar demographic, socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics. This information allows KFRS to understand the demographics, lifestyles, preferences and behaviours of the people of Kent and Medway and thereby specifically target those who need us most.
KFRS uses a product called Mosaic Public Sector (Mosaic) as a source of this information. Mosaic categorises each property into fifteen top level categories each of which is further subdivided into further groupings, however these groups provide a level of detail which is not required for this document.
Each top level category is named and described in the table below.
Category Description Well-off owners in rural locations enjoying the benefits of Country Living country life Established families in large detached homes living Prestige Positions upmarket lifestyles High status city dwellers living in central locations and City Prosperity pursuing careers with high rewards Thriving families who are busy bringing up children and Domestic Success following careers Mature suburban owners living settled lives in mid-range Suburban Stability housing Elderly people with assets who are enjoying a comfortable Senior Security retirement Householders living in inexpensive homes in village Rural Reality communities Younger households settling down in housing priced within Aspiring Homemakers their means Residents of settled urban communities with a strong Urban Cohesion sense of identity Educated young people privately renting in urban Rental Hubs neighbourhoods Mature homeowners of value homes enjoying stable Modest Traditions lifestyles Single people privately renting low cost homes for the short Transient Renters term Families with limited resources who have to budget to Family Basics make ends meet Elderly people reliant on support to meet financial or Vintage Value practical needs Urban renters of social housing facing an array of Municipal Challenge challenges
11
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Cluster Geodemographic Segmentation The composition of the Larkfield cluster can be viewed in the chart below along with the average composition for Kent and Medway.
18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
Cluster Kent and Medway
The composition of the Larkfield cluster has significantly more than average Prestige Positions, Domestic Success, Suburban Stability and Aspiring Homemakers categories when compared to the average for the whole of Kent and Medway
The cluster has significantly less properties which fall into the Urban Cohesion, Rental Hubs, Modest Traditions and Transient renters’ categories when compared to the average for Kent and Medway.
12
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
The map below shows the most prominent category which makes up a localised area of the cluster.
13
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Building Usage as a Risk Identifier There is a well-established process embedded within Fire and Rescue Services nationally to recognise an identified building usage type as an indicator of the risk posed by that building. As such research has been undertaken to gain as much information on building usage within Kent and Medway, and wherever possible a quality assurance process has been undertaken to verify this data. The first stage of acquiring this data was through the use of an Ordnance Survey Product called AddressBase Premium which is provided to KFRS under a public licence agreement. It provides a geographic dataset of addresses, properties and land areas where services are provided. By comparing known property types gained through fire safety inspections and operational intelligence with the information contained within AddressBase it has been found to be a suitable dataset to use when analysing risk data.
However, part of the established practice of using an identified building usage type as an indicator of the risk involves Fire and Rescue Services recognising that approximately 80% of the total risk from fire fatalities involves buildings where people sleep. This 80% of total risk can be attributed to specific categories of building usage:
Hospitals Care Homes Houses of Multiple Occupancy (HMOs) Hotels Hostels
For this reason additional research and cross-matching has been undertaken on specific building usage types to ensure a robust dataset. This research has involved building on the work undertaken in a previous Review of Emergency Response Provision Project and combining it with current information.
As an example of this work AddressBase lists 324 HMOs within Kent and Medway. Operational intelligence and fire safety records strongly indicate that that there are significantly more HMOs within Kent and Medway than are recorded within AddressBase. The reason behind this may lie in the licencing scheme for HMOs which is conducted on a purely voluntary basis. It is suspected that only the licenced HMOs are recorded within AddressBase thereby giving a false impression of the number of this type of building Kent and Medway.
Additional internal data has therefore been used to supplement the dataset for HMOs to provide a more accurate assessment of risk for Kent and Medway and the individual clusters.
14
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Other Building Risk It is well established that the use of a building has a large impact on the amount of risk that building poses to a community. This section details the usage of buildings other than dwellings.
Sleeping Accommodation Risk Those buildings which provide sleeping accommodation account for approximately 80% of total other building risk due to them having people sleeping in them overnight. These buildings are:
Hospitals Hostels Care Homes Houses of Multiple Occupancy (HMOs) Hotels
15
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Hospitals A hospital is defined as an institution providing medical and surgical treatment and nursing care for sick or injured people.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the hospitals category within the Larkfield cluster.
Heart of Kent Hospice, Aylesford
16
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Care Homes A care home is defined as a residential setting where a number of usually older people live, primarily in single rooms, and have access to on-site care services.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the care home category within the Larkfield cluster.
17
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
HMOs A House of Multiple Occupation (HMO) is defined as a property that is shared by three or more tenants who are not members of the same family.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the HMO category within the Larkfield cluster.
18
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Hotels A Hotel is defined as an establishment providing accommodation, meals, and other services for travellers and tourists, by the night.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the hotels category within the Larkfield cluster.
19
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Non Sleeping Accommodation Risk Those buildings which do not provide sleeping accommodation account for approximately 20% of total other building risk. These are:
Factories or Warehouses Further Education Establishments Licenced Premises Offices Premises Open to the Public Other Sleeping Accommodation Other Workplaces Public Buildings Schools Shops
20
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Factories or Warehouses The Larkfield cluster has a number of this type of building, concentrated towards the urban areas in the east of the cluster. Examples of this category include; factories warehouses, mills and brickworks.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the factories and warehouse category within the Larkfield cluster.
21
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Further Education Establishments The further education establishments in the Larkfield cluster are predominantly located in the east of the cluster. Examples of this category include; colleges, universities and other such training establishments.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the further education establishments’ category within the Larkfield cluster.
22
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Licensed Premises The licensed premises in the Larkfield cluster are predominantly located in or around the major urban areas with most villages also having one premise. Examples of this category include; public houses, social clubs and bingo halls.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the licensed premises category within the Larkfield cluster.
.
23
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Offices The offices in the Larkfield cluster are predominantly located in or around the major urban areas.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the offices category within the Larkfield cluster.
24
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Premises Open to the Public Premises open to the public in the Larkfield cluster are predominantly located in or around the major urban areas with higher concentrations in the centre of the cluster. Examples of this category include; leisure centres, theatres and crematoriums.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the premises open to the public category within the Larkfield cluster.
25
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Other Sleeping Accommodation Other types of sleeping accommodation are concentrated around Larkfield itself. Examples of this category include; police, fire and ambulance stations, and prisons.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the other sleeping accommodation category within the Larkfield cluster.
.
26
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Other Workplaces Other workplaces are spread throughout the Larkfield cluster. Examples of this category include; vehicle repair workshops, quarries and storage depots.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the other workplaces category within the Larkfield cluster.
27
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Public Buildings Public buildings in the Larkfield cluster are predominantly located in or around the major urban areas. Examples of this category include; libraries, museums and community centres.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the public buildings category within the Larkfield cluster.
28
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Schools Schools in the Larkfield cluster are predominantly located in or around the major urban areas with higher concentrations in east of the cluster. Examples of this category include primary and secondary schools and day nurseries.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the schools category within the Larkfield cluster.
29
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Shops Shops in the Larkfield cluster are predominantly located in or around the major urban areas. Examples of this category include; food courts, general retail and superstores.
The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the shops category within the Larkfield cluster.
30
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Specific Risks with the Cluster KFRS has a process which identifies sites which pose a specific risk to the community should an incident occur at these locations. These sites are subjected to specific planning and training regimes in order to ensure KMFRA has the ability to respond correctly and effectively to the risks associated with these sites.
The Larkfield Cluster has 9 such sites.
31
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Site Type Risk Allington Incinerator Manufacturing High Aylesford Newsprint* Manufacturing Low Aylesford Priory Historical Medium Burham Water Supply Works Manufacturing Medium Cleansing Service Group Ltd Commercial Medium Igtham Mote Historical High Phoenix Fireworks Explosives Medium Safety-Kleen Manufacturing Medium Tesco Distribution Centre Storage Medium
*local knowledge informs us that Aylesford Newsprint is currently closed.
32
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
COMAH Sites The Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations 1999 (COMAH) and their amendments 2005, are the enforcing regulations within the United Kingdom which are applicable to any site which stores or handles large quantities of industrial chemicals of a hazardous nature. The regulations operate on two levels which depend on the sites status, either Top Tier or Lower Tier sites.
The Larkfield Cluster has no COMAH sites within its boundary.
33
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Infrastructure Risk The risk posed by the clusters infrastructure can be broken down into 4 main areas:
Roads Rail Aviation Ports
34
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Roads The Larkfield Cluster contains a significant amount of the County’s Major roads including the M20 and M26. The cluster also contains some major trunk roads including the A20, A228 and A227.
There are 285 miles of carriageway within the cluster. The Larkfield cluster road composition contains proportionally more motorway when compared to the average for the rest of Kent and Medway.
35
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Rail A number of rail lines pass through the Larkfield cluster.
36
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Aviation There are no commercial airports within the Larkfield cluster.
The greatest risk is posed by Kent and Medway’s proximity to London airports including Heathrow and Gatwick and the fact that Kent and Medway sits below the flight path for many International flights.
Kent and Medway have a long established aviation tradition and there are many small airfields for light aircraft throughout the county.
The map below shows the major airports in the South East of England namely:
London Heathrow Airport Gatwick Airport London Biggin Hill Airport London City Airport Lydd Airport Rochester Airport
37
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Ports Kent and Medway have a significant amount of coastline and as such numerous small ports and harbours. Most villages and towns along the coast contain a mooring location which coupled with the various inland marinas along the rivers of the county present a level of risk to the community.
The map below shows the major ports harbours and docks within the Kent and Medway namely:
Folkestone Dover Sheerness Thamesport Chatham Ridham Ramsgate Whitstable Dartford Grain LNG The Medway Ports
38
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) are sites which support plants, animals, protected species or natural habitats that find it difficult to survive in the wider countryside. These unique and varied habitats have developed over hundreds of years through management practices such as grazing and forestry, and require active management to maintain their conservation status.
The Larkfield cluster contains SSSIs as shown in the map above, namely
Aylesford pit, Houlder & Monarch Hill pits Wouldham to Detling Escarpment Halling to Trottiscliffe Escarpment Holborough to Burham Marshes Trottiscliffe Meadows Oldbury and Seal Chart Bourne Alder Carr
39
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Flooding In recent years the risk of flooding has greatly increased. Below is a map showing the areas of potential flooding within Kent and Medway. It shows the chance of flooding from rivers and the sea presented in categories which take into account flood defences and their current condition. Sections of the River Medway are at risk of flooding in the Larkfield cluster.
40
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Existing KFRS Arrangements The Larkfield cluster contains two fire stations, Larkfield and Borough Green. Each station has a set number of resources which are based at the station, these resources can be crewed through differing crewing systems and provide differing capabilities as detailed in the table below.
Station ID Station Name Crewing Appliances DC 1x RP 65 Larkfield OC 1x P 67 Borough Green OC 1x P
OC = On-call
This crewing model uses firefighters who are called into the station when required from a remote location. These appliances are available either during the day, during the night or both as required by the Authority.
D = Day Crewed
This crewing model uses firefighters who are available at station during the day and on call at night.
W = Whole time shift
This crewing model uses firefighters who are continuously available for deployment 24 hours a day and are based at station. N.B. This cluster does not have any Whole time shift stations.
P = Pump
These appliances make up the majority of the fleet and provide the backbone of our response. They carry no specialist rescue equipment.
RP = Rescue Pump
These appliances are located at stations where it has been deemed that a requirement for specialist rescue equipment exists. They carry some specialist rescue equipment and can respond to most Road Traffic Collisions.
HRP = Heavy Rescue Pump
These appliances are located at strategic stations and carry specialist rescue equipment. They are able to provide a response to all incident types. N.B. This cluster does not have any Heavy Rescue Pumps.
41
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
The map below illustrates the area appliances can respond to from their base locations within 10 minutes. This includes the time period taken for the crews to respond into the station from another location, get ready and leave the station. This time period is known as turnout time.
The turnout time has been standardised as one minute for crews that are already on station and five minutes for crews responding for home or other locations.
Effectively, the turnout time reduces the distance an appliance can respond to within 10 minutes.
A number of specialist appliances are also based in the Larkfield cluster these include:
A Bulk Water Carrier (BWC) used to provide large quantities of firefighting water to an incident. An Inshore Fire Boat (IFB) used to undertake water rescues. A Land Rover Fire Launch (LRFL) primarily used to transport the IFB but also provides an off road capability.
42
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Future Development The Larkfield cluster is mainly comprised of an area controlled by the Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council. Some smaller areas are covered by the Maidstone and Gravesham districts, however there are no developments planned for these regions.
Each local council is required to produce a Core Strategy Document under the National Planning Policy Framework which has been referenced to assess the projected development and associated future risk within the cluster.
The Tonbridge and Malling Core Strategy Document identifies the following locations for housing development:
Kings Hill Holborough Quarry Leybourne Grange Peters Pit Tonbridge Central Area
A new bridge across the River Medway is proposed to serve the development at Peters Pit.
43
RERP – Larkfield Cluster Risk Profile
Population and Housing As with National trend predictions the population of the Larkfield cluster is set to increase over the next ten years. The Tonbridge and Malling Core Strategy Document identify a requirement of an additional 6,750 houses by 2021.
Further development is proposed at Oakapple Lane and Hermitage Lane involving approximately 300 new homes in total.
Major Developments There are no further major developments highlighted for the Larkfield cluster other than those detailed above.
44