Shameless: Australian Grand Prix Makes up Attendance Figures to Help Justify a Billion- Dollar Government Subsidy

Shameless: Australian grand prix makes up attendance figures to help justify a billion- dollar government subsidy

This study shows how the Australian Grand Prix Corporation (AGPC) turns a race attendance of 72,000 into 102,000 and publishes a four-day attendance figure that is twice the number of actual attendees.

The AGPC has no shame in making up attendance figures that would fail a primary school mathematics test. The AGPC published its F1 grand prix attendance numbers as ‘fact’ for 10 years until the Victorian Ombudsman’s investigation in 2006 found them to be ‘estimated’. The secrecy behind these ‘estimates’ shows the AGPC’s intent to mislead the public.

The GP is the only major event that has not used a bar-code, turnstile or similar direct system to accurately and honestly record attendances. The AFL, Tennis Australia, the VRC and the rest of the AGPC’s competitors all use turnstiles - temporary or fixed - and barcode counters to count attendees.

Save Albert Park (SAP) and the media have been denied FOI access to information collected by the AGPC regarding any ‘attendance counting’ statistics. The AGPC claims disclosing the information “would affect the security of Victoria”; it “poses a ‘mass crowd gathering’ security risk” and that the documents we seek are documents “affecting national security, defence or international relations under section 29A of the FOI Act”.

The AGPC also contends its business would be harmed if the public knew how its attendance figures were estimated. But the published evidence of seat numbers, prices, sales revenue, television broadcast and circuit layout showing the real capacity of the circuit exposes the GP’s attendance claims to be false.

SAP contends the AGPC’s attendance numbers are a branch of fiction called major events mathematics as they defy the established rules of mathematics. For example, using primary school mathematics, it is easy to prove there were around 72,500 tickets sold in 2019 and the ticket holders attended on average 2.3 days, giving a total attendance figure of 166,600.

Despite the lack of any evidence to support their ‘estimates’, the AGPC claimed these unbelievable numbers for the 2019 event: DAY 1: Thursday: 50,500 DAY 2: Friday: 84,500 DAY 3: Saturday: 87,000 RACE DAY: Sunday: 102,000 TOTAL: 324,000

Whatever interest these numbers may or may not have to a ‘national security risk’, they are certainly of public interest. They were used to justify the Victorian government’s decision to extend the Australian F1 Grand Prix contract to 2025 and the billion dollars of public subsidy already lost on this event.

This does not mean that 324,000 people attended the event. WHY NOT? The four economic impact studies of the F1GP have all reported numbers of ‘unique spectators’ – ie ticket-holding patrons – at less than half the claimed aggregate attendances. The average of these studies is 2.3 days of attendance per patron.

The claim of 324,000 attendees is absurd.

The alleged aggregate of 324,000 attendances divided by 2.3 equals 141,000 attendees. SAP was advised - pursuant to an FOI request that somehow escaped rejection on national security grounds - that the number of grandstand seats constructed for the 2019 event was 26,838 and that the number of corporate seats provided was 7781.

This means the maximum possible number of corporate and grandstand patrons that could attend the 2019 event on any one day was 26,838 + 7781 = 34,619.

Therefore, the maximum possible number of corporate and grandstand attendances over the four days of the event was 34,619 x 4 = 138,476.

We know, however, • that very few corporate facilities offer tickets for Day 1 – and most corporate facilities are closed on the Thursday; and • that only a few hundred people are ever visible in the grandstands on the Thursday.

These photos below – all made on Day 1 Thursday 14 March 2019 – support these claims.

A claim of 50,500 fans on the Thursday. Where are they? Certainly not in the corporate facilities or grandstands as shown here. This is typical of claims that are contradicted by hard evidence.

[1] 12.47 pm Parc Chalet – an off-track Corporate Facility inside Turn 14 is empty at lunchtime – and all day [2] 12.53 pm Corporate Platforms close to Turn 15. The part visible has a total capacity of about 75. Some 25 people can be seen, including staff.

[3] 1.51 pm Trackside end of the Chicane Pavilion – a corporate facility overlooking Pit Straight and Turns 1 and 2 – where all the action should be. Some 30 people are visible on and near the balcony. [4] 2.54 pm Corporate Platform with a capacity of over 400 between Turns 3 and 4. This part appears to be virtually empty except for a few people at the opposite end. 3

[5] 12.52 pm The Prost Stand - which overlooks Pit Straight from its southern end at Turn 16 [6] 1.38 pm The Moss Stand (There are a dozen or so diehards in both grandstands)

[7] 1.59 pm The Brabham Stand overlooking the exit from Pit Straight [8] 2.53 pm The Piquet Stand facing Turns 3 and 4 (These few fans look pretty lonely)

So, accepting that Day 1 corporate and grandstand attendances were dismal, but assuming that they built up to capacity on Day 4 then corporate + grandstand attendances over the four days must have been approximately:

Thursday: 10,000 Friday: 25,000 Saturday: 30,000 Sunday: 35,000

Total four-day attendance on grandstand and corporate seats = 100,000

This fits well with a calculation based upon: • average corporate and grandstand attendances as revealed by Newspoll’s patron survey in 2011: - corporates 2.2 days/head; grandstanders 3.0 days/head. • Some seats being used by more than one patron over 4 days – say the 7781 corporate places by 8,000 patrons and the 26,838 grandstand seats by 28,000 patrons.

On these premises, we have 8,000 corporates x 2.2 days = 17,600 corporates, and 28,000 grandstand attendees x 3.0 days = 84,000 stand attendees. So, the total of corporate + grandstand attendances equals 101,600 for the four days.

Subtracting this 101,600 from the AGPC’s claimed estimate of 324,000 means around 222,400 must have been general admission patrons (genads).

So – going back to the AGPC’s daily attendance claims (repeated in the purple column below) – and adding the estimates of daily corporate and grandstand attendances (blue column below), the four-day attendances should have been something like this:

Thursday: 40,500 genads + 10,000 corp & stands = 50,500 Friday: 59,500 genads + 25,000 corp & stands = 84,500 Saturday: 55,019 genads + 31,981 corp & stands = 87,000 Sunday: 67,381 genads + 34,619 corp & stands = 102,000

Totals: 222,400 genads + 101,600 corp & stands = 324,000

The totals in the purple column comply with the AGPC’s estimates as announced and then repeated by the Minister. The numbers in the blue column are derived, as explained above, from very credible AGPC information using credible Newspoll survey data. And the totals in the red column are what the general admission must have been if both the blue and purple columns are correct.

But the purple column is absurd, so the red column must be utterly absurd.

WHY IS THE PURPLE COLUMN ABSURD?

According to the Wikipedia and F1 circuit information, the Albert Park circuit is 5.303 km long and has a capacity of 80,000 spectators, as follows:

Location Albert Park, Melbourne, Australia Time zoneUTC+10:00 (UTC+11:00 DST)Coordinates37°50′59″S 144°58′6″E Coordinates: 37°50′59″S 144°58′6″E Capacity80,000[1][2]FIA Grade1Opened20 November 1953 Re-opened: 7 March 1996Major event Formula One Australian Grand Prix Length5.303 km (3.296 mi)

The 80,000 estimate has been around since the 1990’s, and appears to be based upon the race infrastructures of 1996 and 1997, when corporate capacity exceeded 20,000 and there were grandstands for over 40,000. The calculation was, presumably: 20,000 corporates + 40,000 grandstands + 20,000 general admissions = 80,000 capacity.

However, the reduction of aggregate corporate and grandstand capacity from over 60,000 to around 35,000 has been accompanied by the transfer of an extra 10% or so of track frontage to general admission viewers. The annotated copy of the AGPC’s 1997 track map highlights the losses in corporate and grandstand facilities as at 2010 (since when further changes have been relatively minor). 5

X marks the ‘lost’ corporate boxes and grandstands

Mounds have been created along some hundreds of metres of track frontage, and concrete benches placed in some areas, thus increasing general admission spectator capacity by helping people to see over the heads of other people. However, the gain in general admission capacity has certainly not made up the whole loss of places for 25,000 corporate and grandstand patrons.

The general admission attendees have square kilometres of parkland in which to wander but their numbers can be calculated, especially on Race Day, when all but a few thousand of those present are packed around the track with their noses – as it were - to the wire.

The 5.303 km circuit provides 5,303 x2 = 10,606 metres of trackside frontage. But grandstands and corporate facilities still monopolise about 20% of it, and a further 10% is off limits to all spectators. So, the amount of trackside frontage available to general admission attendees is only about 70% of 10,606 metres - ie, about 7,500 metres. And, of this 7,500 metres:

• About 500 metres is mounded to provide good viewing for up to 10 persons per metre – thus providing for some 5,000 spectators; • About 2000 metres has low mounds and/or benches and provides good viewing for up to 5 persons per metre - thus providing for some 10,000 spectators; • • About 5000 metres provides inferior views and has no aids to viewing but could conceivably be used by some 10,000 spectators at a rate of 2 people per metre.

And there are always people who are not trackside – maybe watching on a big screen or admiring cars on display – or just moving around looking for a better place – say 5,000.

This suggests maximum possible general admission attendances on any one day of: 5,000 + 10,000 + 10,000 + 5,000 = 30,000

If you compare the AGPC’s estimates with over 40,000 general admission attendees on Thursday rising close to 70,000 on Sunday this would require averages of over five general admission attendees per metre even on Thursday – rising to almost 10 general admission attendees per metre on Sunday. These averages would have to apply all along that 7.5 km of available frontage – not just on Brocky’s Hill and suchlike favourite spots.

Here is SAP’s more plausible estimate of daily attendances – incorporating what we know about corporate and grandstand patrons and grading up to a capacity attendance on Sunday:

Thursday: 5,000 genads + 10,000 corp & stands = 15,000 Friday: 10,000 genads + 25,000 corp & stands = 35,000 Saturday: 20,000 genads + 31,981 corp & stands = 51,981 Sunday: 30,000 genads + 34,619 corp & stands = 64,619

Totals: 65,000 genads + 101,600 corp & stands = 166,600

And the total number of people who attended the 2019 event – the patronage – assuming an average of 2.3 attendances/head as indicated by the four economic impact studies, would thus be 166,600/2.3 = about 72,500! NOT 324,000!

See next photos for some supporting visual evidence re general admission numbers. All these were taken on Day 1 Thursday 14 March 2019.

General Admission Premium enclosure near Turn 15 at 12.52 pm. If the AGPC attendance claims were true, this would have been packed with people. And packed on EVERY day – including Thursday.

General admission attendees on benches atop one of the more popular mounds – between Turns 2 and 3 - at 1.58 pm. They are packed into a density of about 3/metre over a distance of about 100 metres – well short of the AVERAGE density required (even on Thursday) to achieve the AGPC attendance claims -

General admission attendees at eating area behind the mound between Turns 2 and 3 at 2.03 pm. Not exactly bustling.

And, further: SAP’s FOI question also gleaned corporate and grandstand spectator capacities for the events in 2017 and 2018 – as follows:

2017: 7,421 corp places + 25,912 grandstand seats = 33,333 2018: 8,219 corp places + 25,750 grandstand seats = 33,969

The AGPC’s aggregate attendance claims were 296,600 in 2017 and 295,000 in 2018. So, the same deconstructive logic applies with slightly different numbers. This gives a cumulative four days’ attendance of fewer than 160,000 in those years.

SAP has no photos of the 2018 event, but the following on Day 1 Thursday 23 March 2017 supports SAP’s estimates.

12.03 pm. The Corporate Platforms facing Turn 15 And in the foreground 7 lonely general admission attendees occupying some 10 metres of unobscured track frontage.

12.04 pm The Schumacher and Prost Stands. There are only 25,750 grandstand seats around the entire circuit. With virtually no Corporates attending on the Thursday the AGPC would need every grandstand seat occupied to get to its claim of 50,500 attendees.

12.03 pm General Admission Premium enclosure near Turn 15. Not much interest here either.

The Powerhouse – between Turns 12 and 13 - with a platform for around 100 Corporates is closed. In foreground, one solitary general admission attendee, possibly wondering where the action - if any – is.

The southern 25% of the roof of the Pit Buildings at 5.05 pm, occupied by some 40 Corporates from the Paddock Club. (Note the policeman on his bike keeping close watch on this crowd.)

12.34 pm About 200 fans – mostly general admission attendees – lined up behind the Pit Buildings to meet drivers. (They don’t look very excited.)

General admission attendees on the mound overlooking Turn 8 – where the Lauda Stand stood until 1998 – at 3.01 pm. Some 20 people occupy about 150 metres of frontage. Opposite side is off limits to spectators.

3.31 pm. General admission attendees - waiting vainly for some action - on the race-day popular hill overlooking Chicane-Turn 9 and Turn 10

The thinly occupied Clark Stand (capacity 764) can be seen in the background.

View across the golf course from the mound between Turns 10 and 11, at 3.34 pm. About 20 people are visible across an area of perhaps 200,000 square metres.

4.41 pm The eating area behind the Brabham Stand. (Maybe the 50,500 attendees packed their own food?)

CONCLUSION: Using actual evidence of seat numbers, ticket prices, audited ticket sales revenue, circuit maps and the event telecast, the real four-day attendance at the 2019 grand prix was: Thursday 15,000 Friday 35,000 Saturday 51,981 Sunday 64,619 Therefore, the total attendance over the four days comes to 166,600. The Australian Grand Prix Corporation’s claim of 324,000 is corrupt. It is a fraud on the taxpayers of Victoria. 13

Australian grand prix grandstand superimposed on the MCG.

The MCG capacity is in excess of 100,000 (mcg.org.au) The GP has a seating capacity of only 26,838 (FOI reply by AGPC 9 July 2019)