Update on Economic Aggregates South East Europe
Investment Compact for South East Europe Private Sector Development Division Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs OECD Update on SEE Economic Aggregates
This presentation seeks to update the November 2009 SEE IC meeting on main economic indicators in the SEE region and the changes occurring since the April 2009 meeting.
These data cover up to the end of the second quarter of 2009.
2 Update on SEE Economic Aggregates
SEE IC team leaders are invited to complement the presentation, where they feel relevant, with updated information on actual or planned crisis response measures.
3 Gross Domestic Product
% growth compared to same quarter in previous year 2007=100
4.0
2.0
0.0 Q4.06 Q1.07 Q2.07 Q3.07 Q4.07 Q1.08 Q2.08 Q3.08 Q4.08 Q1.09 Q2.09
Central Europe -2.0 weighted average
Baltic States weighted average -4.0 Euro zone weighted average
SEE weighted -6.0 average
-8.0
4 Gross Domestic Product
% growth compared to same quarter in previous year 2007=100
4.0
2.0
0.0 Q4.06 Q1.07 Q2.07 Q3.07 Q4.07 Q1.08 Q2.08 Q3.08 Q4.08 Q1.09 Q2.09
Central Europe -2.0 weighted average
Baltic States weighted average -4.0 Euro zone weighted average
SEE weighted -6.0 average GDP growth continues to slow in the SEE region – illustrating interdependence with EU countries, which show a similar -8.0 tendency. GDP growth fell more drastically in the Baltic States and Central Europe. 5 Gross Domestic Product
% growth compared to same quarter in previous year
15.0
10.0
5.0
Central Europe average 0.0 Q4.06 Q1.07 Q2.07 Q3.07 Q4.07 Q1.08 Q2.08 Q3.08 Q4.08 Q1.09 Q2.09 Baltic States average
-5.0 Euro zone average
SEE average -10.0
-15.0
-20.0
6 Total SEE Exports to EU-25
4 Position seen at April SEE IC
3.8 Billions EUR Billions
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
Source : Eurostat
7 Total SEE Exports to EU-25
4 Position seen at April SEE IC
3.8 Billions EUR Billions
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
Trade2.2 with the EU picked up slightly in February 2009 – but was still 13% lower than in February 2008 – and
Sourcecontinued: Eurostat to improve, catching-up by June 2009 to levels
8 recorded in the first months of 2008. Industrial Production
Percentage change year-on-year
15%
Position seen at 10% April SEE IC
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
•Data are a simple average for Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina , Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, FYR Macedonia and Romania. 9 Industrial Production
Percentage change year-on-year
15%
Position seen at 10% April SEE IC
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20% Industrial production continued to slow during the first half of 2009.
•Data are a simple average for Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, FYR Macedonia and Romania. 10 Retail Trade Turnover Indices
0
-2
-4 Position seen at -6 April SEE IC
-8 Position seen at -10 November SEE IC -12
-14
-16
2008
2008
2007 2008
2008 2008 2008
2008
2008
- -
-
-
- - -
2008 2008
-
-
II
-
-
2009/I 2009/I 2009/I
- - -
I I I
2009/IX
2009/I
2009/IV
-
-
2009/VIII
2009/VII
-
2008/QIV
-
-
- II
2009/VIII
IX
-
-
IV
I
VII
VIII
QIV VIII
Bosnia and Bulgaria Croatia Republic of Romania Herzegovina Moldova
Source : SEE national statistics agencies
11 Retail Trade Turnover Indices
0
-2
-4 Position seen at -6 April SEE IC
-8 Position seen at -10 November SEE IC -12
-14
-16
2008
2008
2007 2008
2008 2008 2008
2008
2008
- -
-
-
- - -
2008 2008
-
-
II
-
-
2009/I 2009/I 2009/I
- - -
I I I
2009/IX
2009/I
2009/IV
-
-
2009/VIII
2009/VII
-
2008/QIV
-
-
- II
2009/VIII
IX
-
-
IV I
Domestic consumer spendingVII and private consumption have
VIII QIV continued to decreaseVIII significantly throughout the region due to Bosnia and Bulgaria Croatia Republic of Romania weakenedHerzegovina consumer confidence. Moldova
Source : SEE national statistics agencies
12 Net Current Transfers
7000 Position seen at April SEE IC 6500
6000
5500
USD million USD 5000
4500
4000
3500 Q1.07 Q2.07 Q3.07 Q4.07 Q1.08 Q2.08 Q3.08 Q4.08 Q1.09
13 Net Current Transfers
7000 Position seen at April SEE IC 6500
6000
5500
USD million USD 5000
4500 Current transfers declined for the first two quarters of 2009, reaching4000 similar levels to those achieved in the middle of 2007.
This tendency3500 may be explained by migrant workers losing their jobs inQ1.07 host Q2.07countriesQ3.07 andQ4.07 preparingQ1.08 Q2.08 to returnQ3.08 Q4.08home.Q1.09
14 Total FDI in SEE
9
8 Billions EUR Billions
7 Position seen at 6 April SEE IC Position seen at 5 November SEE IC
4
3
2
1
0 Q1.06 Q2.06 Q3.06 Q4.06 Q1.07 Q2.07 Q3.07 Q4.07 Q1.08 Q2.08 Q3.08 Q4.08 Q1.09 Q2.09
Source : SEE central banks
15 Total FDI in SEE
9
8 Billions EUR Billions
7 Position seen at 6 April SEE IC Position seen at 5 November SEE IC
4
3
2
1 FDI declined in the first half of 2009: total FDI in SEE for the 0 second quarterQ1.06 Q2.06 Q3.06 ofQ4.06 2009Q1.07 Q2.07is stillQ3.07 Q4.07 28%Q1.08 Q2.08lowerQ3.08 Q4.08 thanQ1.09 theQ2.09 volume registered in the first quarter of 2006.
Source : SEE central banks
16 Consumer Price changes
Percentage change year-on-year
Position seen 10% at April SEE IC
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
•Data are a simple average for Albania (quarterly data until third quarter 2008), Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, FYR Macedonia and Romania. Source : EIU, SEE national statistics agencies
17 Consumer Price changes
Percentage change year-on-year
Position seen 10% at April SEE IC
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%Growth in consumer prices fell to an average of 1% year-on-year in July 2009.
•Data are a simple average for Albania (quarterly data until third quarter 2008), Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, and Romania. Source : EIU, SEE national statistics agencies
18 Lending and Deposit Rates
16.00% Position seen at April SEE IC 14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
SEE Average lending rate SEE Average deposit rate Central Europe Average lending rate Central Europe Average Deposit rate
19 Lending and Deposit Rates
16.00% Position seen at April SEE IC 14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
Average0.00% lending and deposit rates rose slightly in the first quarter of 2009. Nevertheless, this tendency seems to be
stabilizing forSEE the Average second lending rate quarter. SEE Average deposit rate Central Europe Average lending rate Central Europe Average Deposit rate
20 Manufacturing Production Indices
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0 Bulgaria Croatia FYR Macedonia Republic of Montenegro Romania Serbia Moldova
Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09
Indices compare production to production in the same month one year previously with the exception of Serbia, which compares production to the average production of 2008. Source : SEE national statistics agencies
21 Manufacturing Production Indices
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0 Export-oriented manufacturing industries have suffered as demand0.0 from the euro zone has flattened. However, an upward Bulgaria Croatia FYR Macedonia Republic of Montenegro Romania Serbia export trend in the region may helpMoldova revive these industries in
the second half of the year.Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09
Indices compare production to production in the same month one year previously with the exception of Serbia, which compares production to the average production of 2008. Source : SEE national statistics agencies
22 Exchange rates
National Currency Against Euro January 2007 = 100
135
125 RO Currency depreciation SRB 115
ALB 105
95 MD
Currency appreciation 85
75
Albanian Lek Bosnian KM Bulgarian Lev Croatian Kuna Macedonian Denar Moldovan Leu Romanian Leu Serbian Dinar
23 Exchange rates
National Currency Against Euro January 2007 = 100
135
125 RO Currency depreciation SRB 115
ALB 105
95 MD
Currency appreciation 85
In the75 first months of 2009, the appreciation of the Moldovan Leu – pegged to the U.S. dollar – against the euro reflects the
appreciationAlbanian of the Lek U.S. dollarBosnian in the KM first part ofBulgarian the year. Lev The Serbian DinarCroatian and Kuna the RomanianMacedonian Leu Denarhave depreciatedMoldovan Leu against the Euro whileRomanian the Leu Albanian LekSerbianhas Dinar been depreciating at a slower rate.
24 Loans to the Private Sector
Sep 2008=100
140
120
100 Sep-08 Oct-08
80 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 60 Feb-09 Mar-09 40 Apr-09 May-09 20 Jun-09 Jul-09 0 BIH BG HRV XK MK MD MNE RO SRB
25 All comments welcome:
THANK YOU