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Weekly Investment Update 22 August 2018

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Weekly Investment Update 22 August 2018 Weekly Investment Update 22 August 2018 Domestic retail sales drop Macro Markets* affects property companies - pg. 2 South Africa Best performer Domestic demand eased because For the week was Metair of across-the-board slowdowns. Investments Ltd with a return of Growth in household spending 13%. Followed by Investec Australia How ‘elite investors’ choose more than halved, slowing to 1.50% Property Fund with a 7% increase SAAR (Q4 2017: 3.60% SAAR) as for the same period. growth stocks - pg. 3 consumers were pinched despite moderating inflation and a stronger Worst performer rand. Growth in government For the week was Gold Fields Ltd Market moves spending slowed to 1.20% SAAR with a loss of 29%. Followed by (Q4 2017: 1.60% SAAR), which, Tiger Brands Ltd with an 16% drop Performance: Return 11/08/2018 to 17/08/2018 (Cumulative) nonetheless, reflected an increase for the same period. Local Markets in state-paid employees. All Share TR ZAR -1.73 Ind/Financials TR ZAR -0.84 Sectors Ind/Industrials TR ZAR -2.32 United States Auto parts was the best performing Financials&Indl 30 TR ZAR -1.85 Ind/Basic Materials TR ZAR -1.38 Exports surged in Q2, driven entirely sector for the past week with a Gold Mining TR ZAR -15.40 13% return, while food products SA Listed Property TR ZAR 1.57 by exports of goods, while service Beassa ALBI TR ZAR -0.92 exports moderated. Import growth was the worst performing sector Commodities softened to an annualised 0.50%, with an 8.80% loss. Oil Price Brent Crude PR -1.35 LBMA Platinum AM PR USD -5.78 due to a contraction in service Gold London AM Fixing PR USD -2.88 imports. This led the external sector Currencies Change to contribute 1.1 percentage points ZAR/USD -3.45 ZAR/GBP -3.68 to GDP growth, its best performance ZAR/EUR -3.90 since Q4 2013. The week ahead Turkey Inflation increased for the fourth Domestic consecutive month, from 15.40% in June to 15.80% in July, fuelled by the August Inflation Rate 22 JUL depreciation of the currency and an unfavourable base effect. In addition, core inflation ticked up from 14.60% 30 August PPI JUL to 15.10%, while annual average inflation rose from 11.50% to 12%. International August US: Existing Home 22 Sales JUL JP: Nikkei August Manufacturing PMI 23 Flash AUG *Disclaimer: Total weekly returns based on closing values from Monday to Monday. PSG Wealth | Weekly Investment Update - 22 August 2018 Macro note Domestic retail sales drop affects property companies The South African economy has the most established relative to the optimism at the start of 2018. As retail market and the highest consumer spending on online shopping takes over as an alternative for the continent. However, the retail sector has recently more affordable and efficient delivery of goods, the experienced a wave of declines, posting lower-than- property industry is experiencing negative shifts. We expected output figures. are seeing physical retail stores closing due to loss of sales and not being able to keep up with their online Retail sales increased 0.70% year-on-year in June competitors. 2018, easing from a 1.90% rise in the previous month while monthly retail sales decreased by 1.20% in The trading performance of domestic shopping June. Month-on-month retail sales averaged 0.34% centres recorded a third consecutive quarter of between 2002 and 2018, reaching an all-time high negative growth for the period ended March 2018, of 4.60% in June 2012, and a record low of negative according to the IPD Trading Density Index. The index 5.10% in May 2011. In addition, fuel and vehicle sales is based on data collected by the MSCI Real Estate’s also declined by 2.20% during the second quarter. retail performance Benchmarking Service, which quantifies sales performance. The latest retail data suggest that the sector has slipped back into recession — which is important These statistics also suggest that the economy from a GDP growth perspective. Although it is likely remained weak in the second quarter‚ which that retail spending will respond positively to the would support either steady or lower interest rates. recently concluded government salary adjustment However, policy easing is unlikely in the medium term (effective since July 2018)‚ the overall pace of growth as inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months in consumer activity is extremely disappointing, on the back of higher fuel prices and a weaker rand. South Africa retail sales performance graph 7.9 8 5.7 6 5.4 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.5 4 3.3 1.9 1.6 2 0.7 0.5 0 Jul 2017 Oct 2017 Jan 2018 Apr 2018 Source: Statistics South Africa Bottom line We continue to optimally position our portfolios to benefit from available opportunities and mitigate prevailing risk, within the context of maintaining a well-diversified portfolio. PSG Wealth | Weekly Investment Update - 22 August 2018 Market note How ‘elite investors’ choose growth stocks Two major schools of thought currently exist when leader is with an approach pioneered by investing investing in stocks – value or growth investing. Value legend William O’Neil. Developed in the 1950s, the investing looks for stocks that are undervalued by CAN SLIM strategy identifies seven characteristics the marketplace. Key investors who use this strategy that top-performing stocks often share before making include Benjamin Graham, David Dodd and Warren their biggest price gains. Buffett. Each characteristic is represented by a letter in the Growth investing looks for companies that are CAN SLIM acronym: growing fast, with the expectation that the price of the companies’ stocks will appreciate over time. Key C: Current quarterly earnings growth investors include Philip Fisher, Thomas Rowe A: Annual earnings growth Price Jr. and William O’Neil. While both approaches N: New product, service, management, or price high have proven to be successful over time, S&P 500 data S: Supply and demand shows that growth investing has held the edge since L: Leader or laggard the beginning of the current bull market. I: Institutional sponsorship M: Market direction Fantastic growth stocks don’t just grow on trees – instead, you need a system to sift through them. One See the next editions of this newsletter for more easy place to start your search for the next growth information about value investing. Growth versus value investing strategies on the S&P 500 GROWTH INVESTING 220% 218% 180% VALUE INVESTING 150% 140% 100% 600% 20% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: S&P 500, Investor’s Business Daily, Visual Capitalist PSG Wealth | Weekly Investment Update - 22 August 2018 Previous publications Daily Weekly 22 August 2018 15 Aug 21 Feb 13 July 18 Jan 02 Aug 08 Aug 07 Feb 21 June 11 Jan 27 Jul 01 Aug 17 Jan 14 June 14 Dec 13 Jul 18 Jul 06 Dec 07 June 07 Dec 06 Jul 11 Jul 22 Nov 31 May 30 Nov 29 Jun 04 Jul 15 Nov 17 May 16 Nov 22 Jun 20 Jun 08 Nov 10 May 09 Nov 15 Jun 13 Jun 18 Oct 03 May 02 Nov 08 Jun 06 Jun 11 Oct 19 April 26 Oct 01 Jun 23 May 04 Oct 12 April 12 Oct 25 May 16 May 20 Sept 05 April 05 Oct 18 May 09 May 13 Sep 22 Mar 28 Sep 11 May 18 Apr 06 Sep 15 Mar 14 Sep 04 May 11 Apr 23 Aug 08 Mar 07 Sep 26 Apr 04 Apr 16 Aug 01 Mar 31 Aug 20 Apr 14 Mar 03 Aug 15 Feb 17 Aug 12 Apr 07 Mar 19 July 06 Feb 10 Aug 05 Apr Monthly Research and Strategy Report Jul 2018 Sep 2017 Nov 2016 Winter 2018 Autumn 2017 Jun 2018 Aug 2017 Oct 2016 Autumn 2018 Summer 2017 May 2018 July 2017 Sep 2016 Summer 2018 Spring 2016 Apr 2018 Jun 2017 Aug 2016 Spring 2017 Winter 2016 Mar 2018 May 2017 Jul 2016 Winter 2017 Autumn 2016 Feb 2018 Apr 2017 Jun 2016 Jan 2018 Mar 2017 May 2016 Nov 2017 Feb 2017 Apr 2016 Oct 2017 Jan 2017 Mar 2016 Special report Wealth Perspective Sequence risk and our bucket philosophy Jun 2018 Sequence risk video Mar 2018 New Offshore Brochure Dec 2017 Volatility is uncomfortable, but expected Sep 2017 Stocks that could outperform in stronger Jun 2017 economy Mar 2017 New ANC leader, too close to call Dec 2016 Our exposure to Steinhoff Sep 2016 Local currency downgraded to junk Jul 2016 Blockchains and Bitcoins Apr 2016 UK snap election Jan 2016 Berkshire 2017 AGM Distributions explained S&P junk status Research provided Fed hike inevitable? S&P 2 Dec review US election Market PE’s PSG Wealth | Weekly Investment Update - 22 August 2018 Disclaimer PSG Wealth is a brand underneath PSG Konsult Ltd, which consists of the following legal entities: PSG Multi-Management (Pty) Ltd, PSG Securities Ltd, PSG Fixed Income and Commodities (Pty) Ltd, PSG Scriptfin (Pty) Ltd, PSG Invest (Pty) Ltd, PSG Life Ltd, PSG Employee Benefits Ltd, PSG Trust (Pty) Ltd, and PSG Wealth Financial Planning (Pty) Ltd. Affiliates of the PSG Konsult Group are authorised financial services providers. The opinions expressed in this document are the opinions of the writer and not necessarily those of PSG Konsult Group and do not constitute advice. Although the utmost care has been taken in the research and preparation of this document, no responsibility can be taken for actions taken on information in this document.
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