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Hotels Quarterly Market Report January to June 2016

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Hotels Quarterly Market Report January to June 2016 Hotels Quarterly Market Report January to June 2016 In partnership with Hotel Market Update – January to June 2016 Executive Summary The first half of 2016 has seen continued growth for hotel business from the independent travel management company (TMC) sector, with 100,000 extra room nights booked over the two quarters versus 2015, an increase of 5.32%. In the last report we had indicated a sluggish first quarter with only marginal increases in room nights, so it is pleasing to see such a strong second quarter performance in 2016. Following the record increases in 2015, this six-month performance is extremely credible for the independent TMC sector. Increased hotel sales indicate that corporate accounts are not only continuing to travel but travelling more. The number of bookings in the six-month period January to June 2016 was up by 7.38%. With the number of bookings exceeding the growth in room nights this demonstrates a drop in room nights per booking to an average length of stay of 1.86 room nights i.e. more bookings but shorter stays. The average daily rate (ADR) across the globe for hotel bookings in quarter one and two 2016 has fallen to US$165.24 a decrease of 4.66% versus the same period last year. NB It needs to be noted that these decreases in ADR will be largely due to the fact that all of our figures are reported in USD and in the last year the USD has increased in strength versus most other world currencies. Therefore, as we book a high proportion of hotels outside of the US dollar markets, the exchange rate will have the effect of reducing our reported revenues. Global market statistics from Smith Travel Research Global (STR) (Table 1) reveal a picture which indicates average daily rates (ADRs) were ahead in both quarter one and quarter two 2016 versus 2015 for the USA and the Americas. Rates in Europe were marginally down and trending a further decrease into quarter two against 2015, whilst Asia Pacific and Middle East/Africa both indicated a decrease in both quarters but an improving picture in quarter two. Occupancy levels from STR (Table 2) show a mixed bag by region, with improvements from quarter one to quarter two 2016 versus 2015 in both the USA and Americas, and an increase in occupancy for both Asia Pacific and Europe in the first six months. However, the Middle East and Africa is indicating reducing occupancy from quarter one to quarter two 2016 versus 2015. The positive performance for January to June 2016 is therefore ahead of the market. Hotel Average Daily Rate Trends Jan to Jun 2016 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% -0.8% -0.9% -1.8% Av. Daily Rate Q1 2016 -3.2% Av. Daily Rate Q2 2016 % Change vs Q1 Q1 2015 vs & Q2 % Change -4.9% -5.8% USA AMERICAS EUROPE ASIA PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA Table 1 – Hotel ADR Q1 and Q2 2016. Source: Smith Travel Research Hotel Occupancy Trends Jan to Jun 2016 1.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4% 0.4% -0.5% -0.7% Occupancy Q1 2016 -3.4% Occupancy Q2 2016 -6.9% % Change vs Q1 Q1 2015 vs & Q2 % Change USA AMERICAS EUROPE ASIA PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA Table 2 – Hotel Occupancy Q1 and Q2 2016. Source: Smith Travel Research The hotel market is not surprisingly following the economic trend of uncertainty and for this reason the outlook is one of continued caution. Global group business is starting to contract and this is often an indicator for the transient hotel sector to follow. It is anticipated that with the upcoming US elections and the settling of the markets after the UK vote on Europe, a depressed oil and gas sector and the economic slowdown in China that the outlook will continue to be less than bullish. Top UK Cities – January to June 2016 Quarter two of 2016 proved to be much stronger than quarter one 2016 for our Top 25 UK Cities (Table 3) and we saw a cumulative increase of 8.30% in room nights for the first six months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. There are some terrific UK regional performances with Bristol leading the way with a 40% increase, whilst Glasgow, Edinburgh and Cambridge all demonstrating a 30% plus increase compared to the first six months of 2015. Of the top 25 destinations all saw an improvement versus quarter one 2016 with just Oxford, Reading, Belfast, Aberdeen and York seeing a decrease in room nights for the six-month period versus last year. London and the City of London saw a return to growth with +3% and +6% respectively. The ADR appears to be down across all destinations featured but this is not a true reflection as the hotels would have been booked and paid in GBP but as our statistics are converted to USD, the strength of the dollar over the pound compared to this time last year will be skewing this figure. Top Cities Room Nts Jan to Jun '16 Room Nts Jan to Jun '15 Room Nts 2016 +/- % ADR (USD) 2016 ADR +/-% London 133,559 130,231 3% $232.55 -8% Birmingham 45,532 39,685 15% $117.37 -3% Manchester 39,834 36,043 11% $130.39 -3% Aberdeen 39,156 42,427 -8% $134.43 -33% Leeds 25,848 24,969 4% $123.06 -5% Bristol 25,157 17,922 40% $140.20 -3% Glasgow 21,811 15,728 39% $130.05 -8% Edinburgh 20,318 15,083 35% $148.24 -9% Liverpool 19,989 17,454 15% $113.41 0% Newcastle Upon Tyne 19,710 16,815 17% $110.99 -6% Cardiff 11,811 11,781 0% $114.16 -7% Nottingham 11,715 9,753 20% $107.83 -5% Sheffield 11,049 9,130 21% $103.05 -4% Croydon 10,748 10,414 3% $127.68 -6% Milton Keynes 10,540 10,073 5% $146.15 -5% City Of London 9,927 9,343 6% $278.48 -7% Belfast 8,601 9,818 -12% $121.70 -24% Southampton 8,558 7,692 11% $121.40 -4% Coventry 7,419 7,243 2% $115.55 0% York 6,754 7,196 -6% $126.32 -4% Reading 6,471 7,542 -14% $151.54 -3% Bournemouth 5,991 5,349 12% $128.01 -5% Cambridge 5,950 4,563 30% $194.60 -1% Exeter 5,810 5,131 13% $121.30 -4% Oxford 5,539 6,748 -18% $140.25 0% Table 3 – Top UK Cities – January to June 2016. Source: TravelClick/WIN This year will see 16,000 rooms added to UK hotel supply; of these, 7,000 will open in London – more than double the figure added in 2015. For the UK regions, overall hotel capacity will expand by 9,000 new rooms in 2016. Top Cities Worldwide – January to June 2016 For our Top 25 Cities Worldwide (Table 4) we saw an increase of 2.03% in room nights for the first six months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. This would be up nearly 5% if it were not for the large decrease in Houston business due to the challenges in the oil industry. There are some good performances elsewhere, led by San Francisco at +41%, with Shanghai, Christchurch and Milan all demonstrating 20% plus increases. It is pleasing to see that business for Paris is now +1% and shows a good return after the awful atrocities of last November, whilst Brussels is at -8% following the attack on their airport in the first quarter. The average daily rates are mixed with some positive and negative performances, again we have here a reflection of the strength of the dollar in some markets. Across Europe there are some good increases for a number of cities, led by Dublin at 16% and Amsterdam at 8%, whilst further afield San Francisco and Auckland are reporting 8% and 5% ADR increases respectively. Top Cities Room Nts Jan to Jun '16 Room Nts Jan to Jun '15 Room Nts 2016 +/- % ADR (USD) 2016 ADR +/-% New York 34,307 33,883 1% $362.71 -1% Auckland 25,490 22,831 12% $139.40 5% Paris 25,426 25,158 1% $252.03 -5% Sydney 24,536 23,449 5% $208.85 1% Melbourne 24,101 23,194 4% $155.84 -6% Wellington 21,697 19,921 9% $126.95 0% Singapore 16,203 17,095 -5% $230.06 0% Houston 13,523 21,865 -38% $173.18 -5% Stockholm 12,060 11,170 8% $233.09 9% Hong Kong 12,022 11,704 3% $314.68 -1% Milan 11,995 9,670 24% $226.40 -8% Dubai 11,464 12,744 -10% $245.56 -3% Shanghai 10,526 8,121 30% $177.48 -7% Brisbane 10,446 10,196 2% $154.57 -9% Amsterdam 10,426 11,030 -5% $227.71 8% Perth 10,087 9,278 9% $164.26 -13% Johannesburg 9,728 9,525 2% $114.75 -14% Dublin 9,028 8,562 5% $198.71 16% Cape Town 8,738 9,230 -5% $116.74 -12% Christchurch 8,571 6,653 29% $122.40 -5% San Francisco 8,176 5,789 41% $374.19 8% Madrid 7,989 7,635 5% $186.51 -1% Frankfurt 7,897 8,507 -7% $221.07 -1% Brussels 6,854 7,478 -8% $186.57 -1% Chicago 6,089 6,490 -6% $276.59 -4% Table 4 – Top Cities Worldwide – January to June 2016.
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