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(CSM) Richard Bayel Trumah (BA. Geography and Rura

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(CSM) Richard Bayel Trumah (BA. Geography and Rura RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SELECTED CLIMATIC VARIABLES AND CEREBROSPINAL MENINGITIS (CSM) Richard Bayel Trumah (BA. Geography and Rural Development) A Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Environmental Resources Management. June, 2013. DECLARATION I hereby declare that this work is the result of my own field research and it has not been submitted either in part or whole for any other degree elsewhere. Specific references and sources of information used have been duly acknowledged. Where there appear to be statement(s) which have similarity to any other statement(s) elsewhere but has or have not been acknowledged is/are my own statement(s) and not an attempt to plagiarize. Trumah Bayel Richard ..….………….....………… ..….………….....……… (Student) Signature Date Certified by: Mr. John Ayer ..….………….....………… ..….………….....……… (Supervisor) Signature Date Certified by: Professor Samuel Kwofie ..….………….....………… ..….………….....……… (Head of Department) Signature Date ii DEDICATION To my parents, Mr. Joseph Trumah Bayel and Mrs. Baduro Trumah and my siblings. I dedicate this work to them for their love and support during the duration of the programme. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT My deepest appreciation goes to the Almighty God for His divine protection and guidance throughout this post graduate study. I am particularly grateful to my academic supervisors Mr. John Ayer and Dr. Dadson Awunyo-Vitor for their patience, guidance, support, corrections and comments made for a successful completion of this thesis. My sincere gratitude to all my lecturers on the Environmental Resources Management program and staff of the Department of Materials Engineering, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology. Special thanks go to Maxwell Asem of the Department of Geomatic Engineering KNUST. I extend gratitude also to Ghana Meteorological Agency and AngloGold Ashanti especially Mr. Peter Owusu-Yeboah and Mr. Ebenezer Asare Opong of the Environment and Projects department respectively all of AngloGold Ashanti. I am equally indebted to staff of Obuasi Municipal and Ashanti Regional Health Directorates. Finally, to all colleagues for their assistance and the various authors from whose work I extracted very valuable information to complete my study. God bless you all. iv ABSTRACT This study evaluates the effects of environmental factors on the outbreak of Cerebrospinal Meningitis (CSM) in the Obuasi Municipality and identified other places of similar climatic conditions in order to ascertain population susceptibility to the CSM epidemic. Specifically, it evaluates: (i) the prevalence rate of Cerebrospinal Meningitis (CSM) in Obuasi (ii) the relationship between climatic parameters and the outbreak of CSM in Obuasi (iii) the identification of places of similar climate conditions as Obuasi through cluster analysis of climate variables (iv) the investigation of outbreaks in these similar cluster towns to ascertain the importance of climate variables in disease epidemiology. Data on monthly maximum temperature, rainfall and reported cases of CSM in the study region as well as all cluster towns were collected and analyzed. The results reveal that there were 21 patients affected with CSM in the study area in 2010. Correlation analysis indicates that the reported cases of CSM are positively and significantly related to temperature but not with rainfall. Regression analysis suggests that 64% of the variations in the outbreak of CSM can be attributed to temperature. This result seem to suggest that climate is a major influencing factor in disease outbreak and hence the likelihood of similar situations in areas of similar climate conditions. Clustering methods were therefore used to identify such places. Analysis of health data in these cluster towns however did not reveal reported cases so whereas climate may be an influencing factor to the disease, it appears to only aid the propagation of the outbreak but not causative. The implications of the study are that etiology of diseases may not be solely based on medical parameters but also environmental factors at least in their propagation v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION.......................................................................................................... ii DEDICATION............................................................................................................ iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .......................................................................................... iv ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................... x LIST OF ACRONYMS .............................................................................................. xi CHAPTER ONE .......................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Background and Introduction .......................................................................... 1 1.1 Conceptualization of Key Issues ..................................................................... 3 1.2 Statement of the problem ................................................................................ 4 1.3 Justification ..................................................................................................... 5 1.4 Project Hypothesis........................................................................................... 5 1.5 Objectives of the study .................................................................................... 6 1.5.1 Specific objectives: ....................................................................................... 6 1.6 Research questions .......................................................................................... 6 1.7 Methodology ................................................................................................... 7 1.8 Organization of the study ................................................................................ 7 CHAPTER TWO ......................................................................................................... 8 2.0 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW .................. 8 2.1 Conceptual Framework ........................................................................................ 8 vi 2.2 History of MCM (MCM) ................................................................................ 8 2.3. Correlation Analyses ................................................................................. 15 2.4 Basic Concepts and Algorithms of Cluster Analysis .................................... 16 2.4.1 Clustering techniques. ............................................................................ 16 2.4.2 Types of data and measures of distance in cluster analysis. .................. 17 2.4.2.1 Euclidean distance .............................................................................. 17 2.4.3 Hierarchical agglomerative methods ..................................................... 18 2.4.4 Selecting the optimum number of clusters ............................................. 19 2.4.5 Non-hierarchical or k-means clustering methods .................................. 19 CHAPTER THREE ................................................................................................... 21 3.0. MATERIALS AND METHODS ....................................................................... 21 3.1 Study area ...................................................................................................... 21 3.2 Climate of Ghana .......................................................................................... 24 3.3 Materials. ....................................................................................................... 26 3.3.1 Types and Sources of Data Required .......................................................... 26 3.3.2 Software ................................................................................................. 27 3.4. Methods of Data Analysis ................................................................................. 27 CHAPTER FOUR ...................................................................................................... 30 4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .......................................................................... 30 4.1 Results of Correlation Analysis..................................................................... 30 4.2 Results for the clustering. .............................................................................. 31 4.3 Validation ...................................................................................................... 37 vii CHAPTER FIVE ....................................................................................................... 38 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS. ......................................... 38 5.1 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 38 5.2 Recommendations for Further Studies .........................................................
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