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Home , Abies fabri, Abies kawakamii, Agathis microstachya, Araucaria bidwillii, Cephalotaxus, Cephalotaxus hainanensis

Supplementary Table S2 Details of 455 used in the phylogene�c and physiological niche modelling to es�mate drivers of diversifica�on. Shown are: the clade calcifica�on (10 and 42 clade); number of cleaned georeferenced presence records; the confusion matrix which describes the model fit in terms of true posi�ves, true nega�ves, false posi�ves and false nega�ves; and the es�mated niche area in quarter degree grid squares for the globe (projected) and for version of the globe where all environmental zones are equally common (resampled), see main text for further details.

Clade classifica�on Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records posi�ves nega�ves posi�ves nega�ves Projected Resampled Abies alba 10 65 119 117 111 4 2 6658 7622 Abies amabilis 10 65 80 79 74 2 0 11783 13701 Abies bracteata 10 65 4 4 15 0 0 1610 1846 Abies concolor 10 65 98 90 86 8 8 13825 15410 Abies fabri 10 65 4 4 17 0 0 2559 2641 10 65 13 13 18 0 0 14450 15305 Abies firma 10 65 163 161 163 1 0 2270 2436 Abies fraseri 10 65 15 15 16 0 0 1914 2075 Abies grandis 10 65 77 75 70 2 2 11654 13629 Abies holophylla 10 65 12 12 16 1 0 23899 24592 Abies homolepis 10 65 31 31 34 0 0 791 851 Abies kawakamii 10 65 17 17 26 0 0 700 1164 Abies koreana 10 65 10 10 18 0 0 985 1048 Abies lasiocarpa 10 65 105 100 95 6 5 11422 12454 Abies magnifica 10 65 47 47 58 2 0 11882 14353 10 65 16 16 17 0 0 3833 4114 Abies nebrodensis 10 65 1 1 17 0 0 1094 973 Abies nephrolepis 10 65 11 11 17 0 0 27907 28683 Abies nordmanniana 10 65 7 7 18 0 0 41987 43241 Abies numidica 10 65 2 2 17 0 0 34 44 Abies pinsapo 10 65 26 26 35 0 0 13088 13463 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Abies procera 10 65 31 31 31 0 0 4638 4915 Abies sachalinensis 10 65 21 19 34 0 0 14136 15086 Abies sibirica 10 65 37 37 49 2 0 35459 31771 Abies veitchii 10 65 11 11 17 0 0 570 614 Acmopyle pancheri 3 40 61 61 63 0 0 1486 1550 Acmopyle sahniana 3 39 2 2 5 0 0 2277 1339 acuminatus 1 10 20 19 22 0 0 1520 1381 Actinostrobus arenarius 1 10 59 58 62 1 1 1285 1327 Actinostrobus pyramidalis 1 10 43 42 41 4 0 4271 3902 Afrocarpus falcatus 3 34 17 17 23 1 0 14995 15687 Afrocarpus gracilior 3 34 48 47 47 1 1 11831 12032 Afrocarpus mannii 3 34 2 2 12 0 0 831 906 Afrocarpus usambarensis 3 34 14 14 24 0 0 2189 2171 atropurpurea 6 56 8 8 14 0 0 10045 8125 Agathis australis 6 56 13 12 14 0 0 1395 1480 Agathis borneensis 6 56 8 8 12 1 0 5591 3271 Agathis dammara 6 56 43 41 41 2 2 12088 8365 Agathis lanceolata 6 56 31 30 30 0 0 6519 5228 Agathis macrophylla 6 56 12 11 15 0 0 1958 1322 Agathis microstachya 6 56 9 9 14 0 0 5883 5010 Agathis montana 6 56 8 8 14 0 0 514 450 Agathis moorei 6 56 42 41 43 0 0 1262 1202 Agathis ovata 6 56 51 49 49 0 0 7671 6674 Agathis robusta 6 56 23 21 22 0 1 7175 5677 Agathis silbae 6 56 4 4 8 0 0 332 260 argotaenia 2 27 15 15 20 0 0 16420 18513 Amentotaxus formosana 2 27 5 4 13 0 1 1281 1322 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Amentotaxus poilanei 2 27 2 2 13 0 0 1804 1755 Amentotaxus yunnanensis 2 27 11 11 12 0 0 6177 6768 angustifolia 5 55 18 18 27 0 0 9255 9927 5 55 42 42 47 0 0 2755 3937 Araucaria bernieri 5 54 38 36 42 0 0 2085 1967 Araucaria bidwillii 5 55 6 6 8 0 0 8886 8015 Araucaria biramulata 5 54 21 20 21 0 0 879 772 Araucaria columnaris 5 54 24 18 21 0 0 2836 2448 Araucaria cunninghamii 5 54 80 72 62 15 4 25088 19622 Araucaria humboldtensis 5 54 22 22 28 0 0 820 840 Araucaria hunsteinii 5 55 9 9 15 0 0 1193 1025 Araucaria laubenfelsii 5 54 34 32 29 0 0 1191 1097 Araucaria luxurians 5 54 17 14 15 0 0 2657 2329 Araucaria montana 5 54 69 69 69 1 0 3903 3412 Araucaria muelleri 5 54 12 11 14 0 0 688 617 Araucaria nemorosa 5 54 4 4 8 0 0 4914 2961 Araucaria rulei 5 54 32 31 29 0 0 2804 2213 Araucaria schmidii 5 54 4 4 8 0 0 474 452 Araucaria scopulorum 5 54 13 11 16 0 0 5444 3460 Araucaria subulata 5 54 22 22 22 0 0 1369 1435 cupressoides 1 22 29 29 29 0 0 450 1036 Athrotaxis selaginoides 1 22 30 29 29 0 1 641 1330 chilensis 1 14 49 49 50 0 0 15551 19575 Austrotaxus spicata 2 30 34 34 36 0 0 2104 2125 endlicheri 1 10 1401 1359 1082 104 38 3821 4035 Callitris macleayana 1 10 88 83 86 5 2 6670 6252 Callitris preissii 1 10 1201 1140 1027 129 25 4712 5447 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Callitris rhomboidea 1 10 620 544 458 54 35 6618 6962 Callitropsis nootkaensis 1 2 79 72 69 4 1 16168 18232 decurrens 1 5 81 78 79 7 3 10436 11420 1 5 23 23 23 2 0 4244 5076 1 5 20 20 21 4 0 9329 10736 Cathaya argyrophylla 8 62 9 9 20 0 0 1326 1479 Cedrus atlantica 10 70 20 20 35 0 0 4677 4847 Cedrus deodara 10 70 16 16 21 0 0 20084 23507 Cedrus libani 10 70 17 17 17 0 0 17280 17378 fortunei 2 25 17 16 17 0 1 24711 27574 2 25 4 4 13 0 0 2368 1889 Cephalotaxus harringtonii 2 25 103 102 101 0 1 6633 7778 Cephalotaxus lanceolata 2 25 7 7 17 0 0 1751 1675 Cephalotaxus latifolia 2 25 3 3 21 0 0 1283 1482 2 25 24 23 20 4 1 17756 15533 2 25 5 5 17 0 0 3744 3939 2 25 29 29 33 4 0 7371 8768 formosensis 1 6 172 170 145 3 2 1420 1827 1 6 82 79 89 1 2 7409 8826 1 6 26 25 33 0 0 1610 1770 1 6 12 12 18 0 0 8147 8765 1 6 84 83 69 5 0 13630 15924 japonica 1 18 13 13 18 0 0 3087 3301 lanceolata 1 24 19 19 35 1 0 10467 10487 cashmeriana 1 2 19 19 22 2 0 1739 1995 Cupressus chengiana 1 2 20 20 33 1 0 19535 22565 1 2 25 25 33 1 0 26000 28571 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Cupressus dupreziana 1 2 8 7 18 0 0 1441 1421 1 2 24 24 35 0 0 26753 26043 1 2 16 16 17 0 0 28395 29809 1 2 18 18 19 1 0 10913 12797 Dacrycarpus cinctus 3 38 46 45 48 1 1 3064 3052 Dacrycarpus compactus 3 38 34 34 35 0 0 165 222 Dacrycarpus dacrydioides 3 38 206 169 151 4 6 1653 1940 Dacrycarpus imbricatus 3 38 165 151 143 14 9 12150 9874 Dacrycarpus kinabaluensis 3 38 3 3 12 0 0 155 144 Dacrycarpus vieillardii 3 38 43 42 42 0 0 2056 2107 Dacrydium araucarioides 3 36 59 56 51 0 0 2967 2737 Dacrydium balansae 3 36 56 55 51 0 1 4097 3428 Dacrydium beccarii 3 36 22 22 28 2 0 5439 3871 3 36 182 163 158 10 0 815 1179 Dacrydium elatum 3 36 33 33 26 11 0 11468 9076 Dacrydium guillauminii 3 36 9 9 16 0 0 603 466 Dacrydium lycopodioides 3 36 18 18 22 0 0 563 510 Dacrydium magnum 3 36 5 4 7 0 0 2333 1821 Dacrydium nausoriense 3 36 3 3 5 0 0 1210 1015 Dacrydium nidulum 3 36 39 33 30 6 0 10635 7499 Dacrydium xanthandrum 3 36 17 15 20 1 0 3166 2363 archeri 1 12 55 55 55 1 0 655 1584 Falcatifolium falciforme 3 37 16 16 24 0 0 2395 1610 Falcatifolium taxoides 3 37 26 26 28 0 0 830 778 cupressoides 1 12 24 24 26 0 0 1223 2035 hodginsii 1 7 30 30 32 6 0 15085 14125 pensilis 1 17 8 8 12 0 0 7602 7728 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Halocarpus bidwillii 4 46 61 59 53 4 0 516 1079 Halocarpus biformis 4 46 170 166 142 7 0 421 926 Halocarpus kirkii 4 46 8 8 8 0 0 2054 2336 Hesperocyparis arizonica 1 2 91 86 84 4 5 17581 18634 Hesperocyparis bakeri 1 2 17 17 31 0 0 3918 4491 Hesperocyparis goveniana 1 2 22 22 33 0 0 2596 3082 Hesperocyparis guadalupensis 1 2 10 9 16 0 0 2901 2993 Hesperocyparis lusitanica 1 2 131 119 106 18 12 12636 12284 Hesperocyparis macnabiana 1 2 34 34 43 0 0 2461 2765 Hesperocyparis macrocarpa 1 2 16 16 16 0 0 4109 4530 Hesperocyparis sargentii 1 2 39 39 49 1 0 7606 8718 Juniperus angosturana 1 1 29 29 29 0 0 12735 12840 1 1 96 95 82 7 1 9703 9817 Juniperus barbadensis 1 1 25 25 34 2 0 7506 6070 Juniperus blancoi 1 1 10 10 23 0 0 1599 1974 1 1 33 32 32 2 0 22875 20696 Juniperus chinensis 1 1 29 27 32 1 2 55331 52766 1 1 5 5 17 0 0 3356 3056 Juniperus comitana 1 1 5 5 14 0 0 5338 5608 Juniperus communis 1 1 442 358 326 48 66 19019 21715 Juniperus convallium 1 1 26 26 36 0 0 3079 3432 1 1 121 118 91 7 3 9919 11092 Juniperus drupacea 1 1 23 23 35 0 0 6613 5314 Juniperus durangensis 1 1 34 34 47 1 0 2987 3132 Juniperus excelsa 1 1 116 109 107 12 6 32214 35972 1 1 82 82 85 4 0 10507 10562 1 1 46 46 33 16 0 19371 24053 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Juniperus gamboana 1 1 9 9 14 0 0 465 456 Juniperus gracilior 1 1 6 6 13 0 0 1513 1760 1 1 151 117 99 23 18 27571 24670 Juniperus indica 1 1 56 47 52 0 2 3106 3453 Juniperus komarovii 1 1 7 7 17 1 0 19494 18412 1 1 233 221 169 12 12 9929 9985 1 1 40 40 37 1 0 575 911 1 1 132 129 106 10 3 4753 5613 1 1 118 116 89 9 2 13127 14093 Juniperus oxycedrus 1 1 209 202 184 13 5 35238 35901 1 1 179 171 166 10 4 28469 29753 1 1 81 80 72 3 1 7346 7264 Juniperus pingii 1 1 21 21 33 0 0 1117 1156 Juniperus procera 1 1 54 50 58 2 4 4227 3982 Juniperus procumbens 1 1 4 3 17 0 0 518 516 Juniperus przewalskii 1 1 17 17 18 0 0 1565 1874 Juniperus pseudosabina 1 1 33 24 33 1 1 17584 19495 Juniperus recurva 1 1 45 45 53 0 0 8867 10282 Juniperus rigida 1 1 86 80 83 0 0 11685 13243 Juniperus sabina 1 1 75 72 75 10 2 33139 34558 Juniperus saltillensis 1 1 10 10 17 0 0 2538 2203 Juniperus saxicola 1 1 3 3 13 0 0 1379 1167 1 1 110 102 77 19 6 24050 26774 Juniperus semiglobosa 1 1 121 106 110 6 7 14818 16704 1 1 216 213 200 11 1 8515 11560 Juniperus taxifolia 1 1 5 1 5 0 0 2965 2026 Juniperus thurifera 1 1 121 118 113 4 3 10208 12044 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Juniperus tibetica 1 1 153 147 131 0 2 4391 6165 1 1 185 182 139 15 0 15826 18208 davidiana 10 66 14 13 24 2 1 6240 6834 Keteleeria evelyniana 10 66 18 18 24 1 0 13131 12184 Lagarostrobos franklinii 4 52 32 32 28 1 0 1051 1842 Larix decidua 9 63 144 141 129 4 3 5822 6814 Larix gmelinii 9 63 15 15 14 3 0 56623 56584 Larix griffithii 9 63 15 15 20 0 0 7798 8333 9 63 16 16 18 0 0 1156 1180 Larix laricina 9 63 228 192 133 43 15 25017 23353 Larix occidentalis 9 63 49 46 45 3 3 14339 16357 Larix potaninii 9 63 18 18 34 0 0 1822 1828 Lepidothamnus fonkii 4 45 8 7 13 0 0 1155 2432 Lepidothamnus laxifolius 4 45 43 38 36 2 0 227 447 austrocaledonica 1 13 8 8 8 0 0 949 878 Libocedrus bidwillii 1 13 186 182 187 2 3 332 700 Libocedrus plumosa 1 13 9 9 14 0 0 2738 2552 Libocedrus yateensis 1 13 9 9 14 0 0 1289 1076 Manoao colensoi 4 51 118 95 86 0 0 267 375 glyptostroboides 1 21 3 3 18 0 0 600 558 1 3 8 8 17 0 0 11562 11806 Microcachrys tetragona 3 42 33 33 37 0 0 545 1235 Microstrobos fitzgeraldii 3 41 3 3 7 0 0 74 89 Microstrobos niphophilus 3 41 18 18 21 0 0 436 1077 fleuryi 3 34 15 15 20 3 0 22597 19669 Nageia nagi 3 34 16 14 20 0 0 15765 12418 Nageia wallichiana 3 34 80 71 65 10 3 24319 17553 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Neocallitropsis pancheri 1 10 29 29 29 0 0 1227 968 Nothotsuga longibracteata 10 68 7 7 13 0 0 3887 4645 papuana 1 15 83 80 67 4 0 1585 1630 Phyllocladus alpinus 4 44 109 108 100 1 0 502 1072 Phyllocladus aspleniifolius 4 44 51 49 48 2 1 974 1857 Phyllocladus hypophyllus 4 44 88 85 73 5 2 717 681 Phyllocladus toatoa 4 44 65 64 58 0 0 220 265 Phyllocladus trichomanoides 4 44 92 79 70 2 0 1620 1913 Picea abies 8 61 248 244 230 8 3 8592 8700 Picea alcoquiana 8 61 12 12 16 0 0 86 87 Picea asperata 8 61 26 26 32 3 0 3152 3492 Picea brachytyla 8 61 17 17 18 0 0 8207 9328 Picea breweriana 8 61 20 20 31 0 0 162 205 Picea chihuahuana 8 61 18 18 31 1 0 10114 11486 Picea crassifolia 8 61 10 10 18 0 0 6369 7626 Picea engelmannii 8 61 52 51 54 8 1 7559 7721 Picea farreri 8 61 3 3 18 0 0 870 933 Picea glauca 8 61 24 22 22 8 0 56337 57677 Picea glehnii 8 61 18 18 33 1 0 5238 5609 Picea jezoensis 8 61 43 41 52 0 1 12540 12729 Picea koraiensis 8 61 10 10 18 0 0 23632 20912 Picea koyamae 8 61 14 14 18 0 0 471 504 Picea likiangensis 8 61 30 30 34 0 0 1094 1200 Picea mariana 8 61 13 13 14 1 0 44791 40887 Picea maximowiczii 8 61 5 5 17 0 0 586 603 Picea meyeri 8 61 14 14 17 0 0 46581 48926 Picea morrisonicola 8 61 23 23 25 1 0 996 1330 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Picea obovata 8 61 12 12 17 0 0 42199 44119 Picea omorika 8 61 13 13 18 0 0 5404 5883 Picea orientalis 8 61 12 12 18 0 0 3645 4005 Picea pungens 8 61 42 42 44 1 0 8774 10475 Picea purpurea 8 61 14 14 17 0 0 1156 1311 Picea rubens 8 61 20 19 28 3 0 14788 15057 Picea schrenkiana 8 61 12 12 17 0 0 7585 8993 Picea sitchensis 8 61 82 71 73 3 0 14628 16463 Picea smithiana 8 61 14 13 18 0 0 9831 11720 Picea spinulosa 8 61 8 8 13 0 0 473 746 Picea torano 8 61 9 9 17 0 0 388 414 Picea wilsonii 8 61 9 9 17 0 0 4615 4740 uviferum 1 13 41 39 39 0 0 5829 8140 Pinus albicaulis 7 60 43 43 44 3 0 4782 7021 Pinus aristata 7 60 22 22 30 0 0 6033 6561 Pinus arizonica 7 58 101 99 79 6 2 9175 9269 Pinus armandii 7 60 28 28 40 0 0 13068 15405 Pinus attenuata 7 58 29 29 34 0 0 13609 15681 Pinus ayacahuite 7 60 63 63 67 1 0 6987 8405 Pinus balfouriana 7 60 13 13 16 0 0 1003 1053 Pinus bhutanica 7 60 13 13 21 0 0 1742 1967 Pinus brutia 7 59 14 14 17 1 0 15783 16530 7 60 6 6 18 0 0 8022 7912 Pinus canariensis 7 59 7 7 19 0 0 6308 5843 Pinus caribaea 7 58 92 83 71 11 8 9043 7290 7 60 143 140 118 6 3 11417 11478 Pinus clausa 7 58 62 62 65 1 0 17575 13219 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Pinus contorta 7 58 84 83 65 7 0 12582 12758 Pinus coulteri 7 58 18 18 30 0 0 2188 2174 Pinus cubensis 7 58 6 6 14 0 0 14692 14521 Pinus culminicola 7 60 56 55 58 0 1 1330 1449 Pinus dalatensis 7 60 8 8 13 0 0 9620 8718 7 59 16 16 19 0 0 12898 16081 Pinus densiflora 7 59 57 57 67 0 0 3012 3163 Pinus devoniana 7 58 46 41 45 3 5 4779 4254 Pinus douglasiana 7 58 7 7 13 0 0 6259 6242 Pinus durangensis 7 58 17 17 29 1 0 7189 8337 Pinus echinata 7 58 91 89 82 4 1 19709 19065 7 60 28 28 27 2 0 29154 28772 Pinus elliottii 7 58 28 27 29 1 0 27153 21885 Pinus engelmannii 7 58 32 30 31 0 2 6137 6269 Pinus fenzeliana 7 60 30 30 31 5 0 3758 4742 Pinus flexilis 7 60 31 31 28 4 0 20222 21935 7 60 15 15 18 0 0 17517 20060 Pinus glabra 7 58 41 40 43 2 0 5853 6621 Pinus greggii 7 58 51 50 45 4 1 6306 6444 Pinus halepensis 7 59 149 140 144 3 8 15640 15112 Pinus hartwegii 7 58 71 70 86 3 1 1602 2208 Pinus heldreichii 7 59 8 8 17 0 0 10061 10712 Pinus herrerae 7 58 19 19 22 0 0 3941 4447 Pinus hwangshanensis 7 59 3 3 21 0 0 4653 5605 Pinus jeffreyi 7 58 18 18 33 0 0 1337 1627 Pinus kesiya 7 59 22 18 23 2 4 16345 16982 7 60 19 19 33 1 0 7334 7749 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Pinus krempfii 7 60 8 8 12 0 0 647 690 Pinus lambertiana 7 60 38 38 44 2 0 14912 17927 Pinus lawsonii 7 58 18 18 25 0 0 2193 2513 Pinus leiophylla 7 58 51 51 62 4 0 11037 12237 Pinus longaeva 7 60 20 20 34 0 0 13573 15727 Pinus luchuensis 7 59 6 5 13 0 0 885 882 Pinus lumholtzii 7 58 16 16 30 0 0 3080 3478 Pinus massoniana 7 59 59 55 61 0 3 1256 1385 Pinus maximartinezii 7 60 9 9 23 0 0 669 711 Pinus merkusii 7 59 5 5 11 1 0 15324 11815 7 60 52 52 51 7 0 17049 18106 Pinus montezumae 7 58 48 47 68 0 1 3345 3721 Pinus monticola 7 60 27 27 28 1 0 11266 11719 Pinus morrisonicola 7 60 45 43 44 3 2 3483 3900 Pinus mugo 7 59 52 51 52 0 1 3428 3532 Pinus muricata 7 58 14 14 16 1 0 6308 6400 Pinus nelsonii 7 60 52 52 46 0 0 6966 6382 Pinus nigra 7 59 20 20 33 0 0 29820 33363 Pinus occidentalis 7 58 18 18 22 1 0 7794 8100 Pinus oocarpa 7 58 120 107 93 20 13 8955 8423 Pinus palustris 7 58 56 56 55 1 0 23352 19220 Pinus parviflora 7 60 20 20 35 0 0 2200 2322 Pinus patula 7 58 29 29 46 0 0 7275 7026 Pinus peuce 7 60 5 5 18 0 0 1653 1942 Pinus pinaster 7 59 110 110 115 4 0 37546 37599 Pinus pinceana 7 60 26 26 27 2 0 4723 4508 Pinus pinea 7 59 271 269 255 2 2 12375 11167 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Pinus ponderosa 7 58 64 63 58 4 1 13941 15774 Pinus praetermissa 7 58 7 7 22 0 0 7351 8006 Pinus pringlei 7 58 9 9 14 0 0 11204 11680 Pinus pseudostrobus 7 58 67 66 67 2 1 8318 8644 Pinus pumila 7 60 11 10 17 0 1 5970 6016 Pinus pungens 7 58 11 11 16 0 0 3018 3521 Pinus quadrifolia 7 60 13 13 16 1 0 18810 17986 Pinus radiata 7 58 36 34 33 0 0 1756 2039 Pinus remota 7 60 11 11 17 0 0 2777 2546 Pinus resinosa 7 59 211 194 162 16 0 9543 9682 Pinus rigida 7 58 155 144 114 11 3 35803 35302 7 59 7 7 13 0 0 12789 13061 Pinus rzedowskii 7 60 17 17 27 1 0 8427 8780 Pinus sabiniana 7 58 67 66 57 2 1 11067 12108 Pinus serotina 7 58 123 119 107 3 3 13475 14705 Pinus sibirica 7 60 29 29 28 6 0 81750 84767 Pinus squamata 7 60 1 1 19 0 0 57 66 Pinus strobiformis 7 60 36 35 44 0 1 17859 19023 Pinus strobus 7 60 217 202 162 15 3 31746 32443 Pinus sylvestris 7 59 191 188 165 27 2 17017 17886 7 59 34 34 29 7 0 21919 25392 Pinus taeda 7 58 224 222 182 9 1 10117 10973 Pinus taiwanensis 7 59 54 54 58 1 0 2191 2953 Pinus teocote 7 58 95 94 67 5 1 17109 17428 Pinus torreyana 7 58 5 5 16 0 0 1740 1908 Pinus tropicalis 7 59 9 9 14 0 0 7915 4805 Pinus uncinata 7 59 86 86 82 4 0 13656 15761 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Pinus virginiana 7 58 232 232 192 15 0 15231 17045 Pinus wallichiana 7 60 38 37 49 3 0 26759 29305 7 59 25 25 34 0 0 16374 18336 orientalis 1 3 14 14 18 0 0 22174 24480 acutifolius 3 33 15 15 21 0 0 622 1385 Podocarpus affinis 3 32 4 4 5 0 0 1437 1181 Podocarpus angustifolius 3 33 9 9 13 0 0 2383 2280 Podocarpus archboldii 3 32 22 21 20 1 0 4413 4436 Podocarpus bracteatus 3 32 11 11 14 0 0 640 613 Podocarpus brassii 3 32 17 16 21 0 1 473 1059 Podocarpus brevifolius 3 32 4 4 12 0 0 237 249 Podocarpus chingianus 3 32 2 2 19 0 0 6147 6076 Podocarpus coriaceus 3 33 10 10 14 0 0 6296 5266 Podocarpus costalis 3 32 5 4 13 0 0 1398 887 Podocarpus costaricensis 3 33 6 6 13 0 0 8769 7133 Podocarpus cunninghamii 3 33 122 111 93 7 0 1778 2206 Podocarpus dispermus 3 32 4 4 7 0 0 13470 10121 Podocarpus drouynianus 3 32 16 15 15 0 0 22429 19105 Podocarpus elatus 3 32 33 25 28 0 0 6924 6628 Podocarpus elongatus 3 33 37 37 45 3 0 12429 13447 Podocarpus gnidioides 3 33 6 6 7 0 0 1424 1425 Podocarpus grayae 3 32 14 13 14 0 0 23965 18425 Podocarpus guatemalensis 3 33 42 42 45 1 0 11664 8629 Podocarpus henkelii 3 33 8 8 13 0 0 8618 9517 Podocarpus hispaniolensis 3 33 6 6 13 0 0 1444 978 Podocarpus lambertii 3 33 15 15 27 0 0 20262 19609 Podocarpus latifolius 3 33 22 22 23 1 0 3602 3974 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Podocarpus lawrencei 3 33 49 48 46 3 1 887 2130 Podocarpus longifoliolatus 3 32 4 4 8 0 0 1987 1786 Podocarpus lucienii 3 32 23 23 22 0 0 554 469 Podocarpus macrophyllus 3 32 7 7 17 0 0 11213 12516 Podocarpus matudae 3 33 43 40 43 4 3 6512 6389 Podocarpus milanjianus 3 33 65 65 69 3 0 7160 7421 Podocarpus nakaii 3 32 42 42 42 6 0 5627 5920 Podocarpus neriifolius 3 32 49 42 42 3 3 26316 19664 Podocarpus nivalis 3 33 199 197 172 4 1 279 699 Podocarpus nubigenus 3 33 17 17 25 0 0 1116 2190 Podocarpus oleifolius 3 33 67 66 66 2 1 13488 15015 Podocarpus parlatorei 3 33 14 14 14 0 0 23801 25773 Podocarpus pilgeri 3 32 36 32 29 1 2 5480 6192 Podocarpus polyspermus 3 32 4 4 7 0 0 741 697 Podocarpus polystachyus 3 32 22 17 22 3 1 11335 6813 Podocarpus purdieanus 3 33 4 4 13 0 0 2259 1884 Podocarpus rubens 3 32 14 14 13 1 0 2919 2756 Podocarpus rumphii 3 32 10 8 8 0 0 21663 14244 Podocarpus salignus 3 33 38 38 38 1 0 8559 10338 Podocarpus salomoniensis 3 32 3 3 7 0 0 1606 972 Podocarpus sellowii 3 33 8 8 13 0 0 6443 6274 Podocarpus spathoides 3 32 9 7 7 0 0 2518 1653 Podocarpus spinulosus 3 32 172 120 120 6 3 3903 3903 Podocarpus sylvestris 3 32 7 7 7 0 0 2554 2487 Podocarpus totara 3 33 120 115 113 6 2 1602 1949 Podocarpus trinitensis 3 33 3 3 12 0 0 1116 807 Podocarpus urbanii 3 33 5 5 14 0 0 441 402 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled andina 4 49 28 28 37 1 0 6255 8184 4 47 151 139 118 9 4 811 1060 Prumnopitys ferruginoides 4 47 10 10 14 0 0 2730 2437 Prumnopitys ladei 4 48 5 5 7 0 0 1916 1642 Prumnopitys taxifolia 4 49 74 72 66 5 1 1810 2125 Pseudolarix amabilis 10 69 4 4 17 0 0 2296 2371 Pseudotaxus chienii 2 29 10 10 12 0 0 3425 3958 Pseudotsuga japonica 9 64 5 5 18 0 0 11456 11849 Pseudotsuga macrocarpa 9 64 13 13 15 1 0 30616 29153 Pseudotsuga menziesii 9 64 197 188 127 27 7 31824 38316 Pseudotsuga sinensis 9 64 37 34 45 1 3 2063 2497 Retrophyllum comptonii 3 35 21 21 22 0 0 886 787 Retrophyllum minus 3 35 35 35 36 0 0 5458 3818 Retrophyllum rospigliosii 3 35 27 27 27 0 0 6888 6186 Retrophyllum vitiense 3 35 16 13 13 1 0 2364 1480 Saxegothaea conspicua 3 43 46 45 46 0 0 3918 5923 sempervirens 1 19 15 45 47 1 0 8770 10242 giganteum 1 20 45 15 16 0 0 17348 17739 Sundacarpus amarus 4 50 75 68 62 9 5 21065 15228 cryptomerioides 1 23 25 25 40 0 0 8011 9669 distichum 1 16 136 136 98 10 0 38303 33107 1 16 71 64 61 11 7 26603 27746 baccata 2 28 91 86 91 9 0 13325 15420 Taxus brevifolia 2 28 94 91 83 7 2 23580 28762 Taxus canadensis 2 28 123 116 88 9 3 10618 10710 Taxus chinensis 2 28 30 30 40 0 0 6420 7310 Taxus cuspidata 2 28 15 14 17 0 0 3341 3713 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Taxus floridana 2 28 6 6 18 0 0 1844 1823 Taxus globosa 2 28 29 29 44 2 0 5811 6123 Taxus wallichiana 2 28 38 38 40 0 0 9162 9580 articulata 1 4 28 27 35 0 0 17058 15849 koraiensis 1 8 10 10 18 0 0 37533 37879 1 8 144 130 102 9 1 17044 16526 1 8 108 95 78 7 7 21456 26245 1 8 16 16 18 0 0 237 219 1 8 5 5 17 0 0 24851 26940 dolabrata 1 9 96 94 99 0 0 5709 6056 californica 2 26 35 35 47 0 0 4789 5737 Torreya grandis 2 26 50 50 58 2 0 11156 12712 Torreya jackii 2 26 7 7 13 0 0 9660 6313 Torreya nucifera 2 26 14 13 17 0 0 2254 2384 2 26 14 14 16 0 0 1445 1429 Tsuga canadensis 10 67 28 28 31 1 0 21092 22955 Tsuga caroliniana 10 67 23 23 34 0 0 5873 6582 10 67 61 57 57 4 4 11110 14887 Tsuga diversifolia 10 67 13 13 17 0 0 606 654 Tsuga dumosa 10 67 45 45 50 0 0 3308 3829 Tsuga forrestii 10 67 16 16 17 0 0 19555 21577 Tsuga heterophylla 10 67 89 85 71 4 0 20273 22822 Tsuga mertensiana 10 67 79 74 66 8 4 22437 25001 Tsuga sieboldii 10 67 34 34 34 0 0 1656 1764 cedarbergensis 1 11 6 6 12 0 0 5083 5597 1 11 13 13 23 1 0 7841 7862 1 11 13 13 24 0 0 4782 5331 Clade classification Confusion matrix niche area (# grid cells) 42 (68*) Number of True True False False Species 10 clades clades records positives negatives positives negatives Projected Resampled Wollemia nobilis 6 57 1 1 7 0 0 89 169 vietnamensis 1 2 7 7 12 0 0 8340 7585 * the second clade classification produced 68 clades, however 26 of these were single species that were dropped from the analysis leaving 42 multi-species clades, see online methods for justification.