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Weekly Update Investment Strategy 12 March 2021 C0 | EXTERNAL PUBLICATION WEEKLY UPDATE Rotation’s Turn? Vaccination programmes continue to make good progress, President Biden has just signed into law a $1.9 trillion fiscal aid package and investors are gaining confidence in the cyclical outlook for recovery. This has pushed bond yields sharply higher on hopes of reflation, sparking a rotation in equity markets into laggard sectors and markets. Are the hopes of recovery justified and what does all this mean for markets? In the euro zone, vaccination programmes have finally begun to accelerate. In France for example, there have been 2.1 jabs per 100 inhabitants over the past 7 days, up from 1.2 a fortnight ago and taking total inoculations to 9.5 per 100. Moreover, the European Medicines Agency has now recommended a fourth vaccine produced by Johnson & Johnson for all adults, the first that only requires a single dose – with 200m doses already on order for 2021, this will go some way to compensate for the production delays experienced by another supplier, AstraZeneca. This progress reinforces our conviction that governments will be able to ease lockdown and curfew restrictions by late spring, enabling a synchronised cyclical recovery in the second half of this year. In the US, certain states have already begun to ease restrictions, enabling hiring to resume. For now, European economies, where stringent restrictions remain the norm, are still mired in recession but we expect euro zone members to follow the UK’s lead in setting out roadmaps in coming months to exit lockdowns as increasing numbers are vaccinated. This economic backdrop has pushed our economists to revise their global GDP forecasts for 2021 higher, taking US growth to 4.9% and the euro zone to 4.1%, the fastest pace in 20 years thanks to rapid recovery in H2. In turn, this economic upturn will foster a cyclical pick-up in earnings, particularly in those regions and sectors with the greatest operating leverage. This explains why expectations for profit growth are higher in the euro zone than in the US, which is heavily weighted towards large cap “Growth” stocks in sectors like information technology (the IBES consensus estimates for 2021 are 37.7% and 23.9% respectively). In terms of sectors, the greatest earnings upside is in “Value” sectors, such as energy, materials or industrials for example. Index providers like MSCI have divided their stock universe into two categories – Growth in historic and forecast earnings and sales and Value in the book value to price ratio, dividend yield and low price-to-earnings ratios. Not unsurprisingly, Growth stocks have dramatically outperformed Value over the post-subprime crisis period as investors have placed a premium on earnings growth, which has been a rare commodity in a sluggish global economy. Moreover, central banks have kept liquidity abundant via asset purchases and interest rates at historic lows, which has boosted Growth stock valuations close to historical highs. Looking ahead therefore, the stage might seem set for a reversal in investor preferences with Value stocks regaining some of the lost ground in recent months. Moreover, as argued in recent reports, this movement has been aided by steepening yield curves, which have taken some of the shine off Growth stock valuations and rekindled interest in Value. However, we would caution against a wholesale switch into Value. Although long rates are set to remain above crisis lows, we expect central banks to remain active buyers of fixed income bonds, which will help keep sovereign yields lower than they would have been otherwise. Bottom line. We expect central banks to keep a cap on bond yields, meaning that further steepening in the yield curve (often a prerequisite for Value stock outperformance) is unlikely. Moreover, Growth stocks have been popular for solid fundamental reasons – the cyclical pick-up in activity is unlikely to impair their long-term earnings potential. All in all, we recommend keeping a broad diversification across both Growth and Value in portfolios. Rapid GDP growth forecast for 2021 Growth has dramatically outperformed Value since 2008 Evolution of GDP growth YoY of US and Euro zone MSCI Value index vs MSCI Growth index Sources: SGPB, Macrobond, BEA, Q4 2020 Sources: SGPB, Macrobond, MSCI, 11/03/2021 Past performance should not be seen as a guarantee of future returns. All data taken from Bloomberg, Macrobond, (12/02/2021). In accordance with the applicable regulation, we inform the reader that this material is qualified as a marketing document. CA012H12021 Weekly Update 12 March 2021 OUR MACRO COMMENTS This week and next • The ECB kept the deposit facility interest rate unchanged at -0.50%. • The UK economy showed resilience in January. Economists had • The second estimate for eurozone GDP showed a 0.7% QoQ expected GDP to fall 4.9% MoM as the nation was hit by a new round contraction in Q4, slightly weaker than the initial -0.6%. YoY, the of coronavirus restrictions and Brexit slashed exports to the European Union. In the end, GDP shrank 2.9% after gaining 1.2% in EUROZONE decline in GDP was revised up from -5.0% to -4.9%. December. • German industrial production for January came in at -2.5% seasonally adjusted versus consensus estimates of -0.4%. KINGDOMUNITED • Manufacturing production came in at -2.3% MoM and -5.2% YoY in January versus expectations of -0.8% and -3.6% respectively, while • Germany’s trade surplus widened from an upwardly revised €16.4bn total industrial output fell from 0.2% to -1.5% MoM versus -0.6% to €22.2bn in January, boosted by 3.1% growth in exports to China. expected. Economists had forecast a decline to €16.2bn. Next week’s key events Per. Prev. Cons. Next week’s key events Per. Prev. Cons. 17 Mar CPI MoM Feb 0.2% 0.2% 18 Mar BoE interest rate decision 2021 0.1% 0.1% 19 Mar German ZEW expectations Mar 71.2 75.0 19 Mar GfK consumer confidence Mar -23 -27 • February’s CPI ex Food & Energy softened from 1.4% to 1.3% YoY • China’s headline CPI fell -0.2% YoY in February, better than the versus forecasts for 1.4%. previous -0.3% and consensus forecasts for -0.4%. China’s producer STATES • In the week ending 5th March, initial jobless claims fell from a revised prices rose from 0.3% to 1.7% YoY in February versus 1.5% estimated. 754k to 712k, which was better than expectations for 725k. •COUNTRIES Foreign direct investment into China in January-February jumped • Michigan consumer sentiment prelim rose to 83 in the first half of this 31.5% YoY to 176.76 billion yuan ($27.21 billion). UNITED month from 76.8 in February. Economists had forecasted 78.5. ASIA & EMERGING • Annual inflation in Brazil rose 5.2% in February, the fastest pace in over four years. • Japan’s GDP expanded by 2.8% QoQ in Q4, while economists had forecast 3.0%. Next week’s key events Per. Prev. Cons. Next week’s key events Per. Prev. Cons. 16 Mar Retail sales MoM Feb 5.3% -0.4% 15 Mar China retail sales YTD YoY Feb -3.9% 32.0% 17 Mar Fed interest rate decision 2021 0.25% 0.25% 19 Mar BoJ interest rate decision 2021 -0.1% -0.1% Sources: DataStream, Bloomberg, 11 March 2021. Note: YoY = year-on-year; QoQ = quarter-on-quarter; MoM = month-on-month, P = preliminary figure, A = advanced figure, F = final figure, seasonally adjusted, PMI = Purchasing Managers’ Index, CPI = Consumer Price Inflation. Our 3-month targets for currencies and commodities Thursday close 3mth target EUR/USD 1.20 1.22 GBP/USD 1.40 1.38 NB Please see changes to our EUR/CHF 1.11 1.09 3-month targets this week. USD/JPY 108.5 105.0 Brent $69.7 $65.0 Gold (oz.) $1722 $1750 Forecast figures are not a reliable indicator of future performance. 2 Weekly Update 12 March 2021 MARKET PERFORMANCE Interest rates Last 1wk 3mth YTD 12mth Government bonds* 1wk 3mth YTD 12mth EONIA (EUR) -0.48 % 0 bp 0 bp 2 bp -2 bp United States (3-7yr) 0.1 % -1.5 % -1.6 % 0.7 % 3mth Euribor (EUR) -0.54 % 0 bp 0 bp 0 bp -7 bp United Kingdom (3-7yr) 0.0 % -1.6 % -1.5 % -0.5 % 3mth Libor (USD) 0.18 % 1 bp -3 bp -5 bp -59 bp Germany (3-7yr) 0.0 % -1.0 % -0.6 % -2.0 % 3mth Libor (GBP) 0.08 % 0 bp 4 bp 5 bp -30 bp Japan (3-7yr) 0.1 % -0.2 % -0.2 % -0.8 % 10-year US Treasury bond 1.53 % -2 bp 64 bp 62 bp 71 bp 10-year German bond -0.33 % -2 bp 31 bp 24 bp 42 bp Equities* Last 1wk 3mth YTD 12mth 10-year French bond -0.10 % -3 bp 29 bp 25 bp 21 bp MSCI AC World 675 3.3 % 7.6 % 4.7 % 45.5 % 10-year UK bond 0.74 % 0 bp 56 bp 54 bp 44 bp Eurostoxx 50 3 846 3.8 % 10.7 % 8.6 % 35.9 % DAX 14 569 3.7 % 11.1 % 6.2 % 39.6 % Credit 1wk 3mth YTD 12mth CAC 40 6 034 3.5 % 9.8 % 8.9 % 33.9 % BAML EURO Corp. IG 0.0% -0.9 % -0.6 % 2.7 % S&P 500 3 939 4.6 % 7.9 % 5.2 % 46.2 % BAML EURO Corp HY 0.1% 1.6 % 1.4 % 11.2 % FTSE 100 6 737 1.5 % 3.9 % 5.1 % 18.1 % BAML GBP Corp IG -0.1% -3.7 % -3.9 % 3.5 % SMI 10 883 1.2 % 5.4 % 2.3 % 23.1 % BAML US IG -0.2% -3.4 % -4.0 % 4.1 % Topix 1 925 2.1 % 8.2 % 6.7 % 42.3 % BAML US HY 0.0% 1.7 % 0.7 % 14.2 % IBOV Brazil 114 984 2.0 % -0.1 % -3.4 % 35.0 % BAML Global EM Sov.
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