Participation Forecast

Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025

Texas Institutions of Higher Education

January 2015

Strategic Planning and Funding

Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board

Harold W. Hahn, CHAIR El Paso Robert W. Jenkins, VICE CHAIR Austin David D. Teuscher, M.D., SECRETARY OF THE BOARD Beaumont Gerald “Jerry” Korty, STUDENT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BOARD Fort Worth Dora G. Alcala Del Rio Ambassador Sada Cumber Sugarland Fred Farias, III O.D. McAllen Janelle Shepard Weatherford John T. Steen, Jr. San Antonio

Raymund A. Paredes, COMMISSIONER OF HIGHER EDUCATION

Mission, Vision, Philosophy, and Core Values

Agency Mission The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board promotes access, affordability, quality, success, and cost efficiency in the state’s institutions of higher education, through Closing the Gaps and its successor plan, resulting in a globally competent workforce that positions Texas as an international leader in an increasingly complex world economy.

Agency Vision The THECB will be recognized as an international leader in developing and implementing innovative higher education policy to accomplish our mission.

Agency Philosophy The THECB will promote access to and success in quality higher education across the state with the conviction that access and success without quality is mediocrity and that quality without access and success is unacceptable.

The Coordinating Board’s core values are: Accountability: We hold ourselves responsible for our actions and welcome every opportunity to educate stakeholders about our policies, decisions, and aspirations.

Efficiency: We accomplish our work using resources in the most effective manner.

Collaboration: We develop partnerships that result in student success and a highly qualified, globally competent workforce.

Excellence: We strive for preeminence in all our endeavors.

The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age or disability in employment or the provision of services.

Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025

Table of Contents

Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 for Texas Colleges and Universities ...... 1 Texas Public College and University Enrollment Forecast Methodology ...... 23 Enrollment Forecast for Texas Independent Colleges and Universities ...... 42

List of Tables

Table 1: Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts – Texas Institutions of Higher Education ...... 4 Table 2: Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment ...... 4 Table 3: Enrollment Projections by Region – Texas Public Institutions of Higher Education ...... 6 Table 4: Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts – Public Universities...... 12 Table 5: Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment – Public Universities ...... 14 Table 6: Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts – Public Two-Year Colleges ...... 16 Table 7: Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment – Public Two-Year Colleges ...... 19 Table 8 Fall In-State Enrollment by Age and Race/Ethnicity – Public Universities ...... 25 Table 9: Fall In-State and Nonresident Enrollment for Public Universities ...... 25 Table 10: Fall In-State Enrollment by Age and Race/Ethnicity – Public Two-Year Colleges ...... 26 Table 11: Fall In-State and Nonresident Enrollment for Public Two-Year Colleges ...... 26 Table 12: Texas Statewide Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity ...... 28 Table 13: In-State Enrollment Alternative Forecasts – Public Universities ...... 30 Table 14: In-State Enrollment Alternative Forecasts – Public Two-Year Colleges...... 31 Table 15: In-State Enrollment – Public Universities Comparison of Preliminary to Forecast In-State Enrollment for 2013 ...... 34 Table 16: In-State Enrollment – Public Two-Year Colleges Comparison of Preliminary to Forecast In-State Enrollment for 2013 ...... 35 Table 17: Nonresident Enrollment Ratios – Public Universities ...... 38 Table 18: Nonresident Enrollment Ratios – Public Two-Year Colleges ...... 39 Table 19: Adjustments to Draft Enrollment Forecasts Based on Local Conditions ..... 41 Table 20: Enrollment at Public Universities and Independent Institutions ...... 42 Table 21: Enrollment Forecasts for Public Universities and Independent Institutions 42

i List of Figures

Figure 1: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 10 Regions ...... 5 Figure 2: Enrollment Forecast Development Process ...... 22

ii Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 for Texas Colleges and Universities

Biennially since 1979, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board has calculated enrollment trends and expectations which are fundamental to higher education planning. In times of changing demographics like Texas is experiencing, these forecasts become even more critical as they inform the higher education community about anticipated Enrollment if current enrollment patterns continue. The Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 is the 19th installment in the Coordinating Board’s series on this important topic.

Enrollment Forecast Process

The methodology used to produce the Enrollment Forecast has remained relatively unchanged since 1979. For public colleges and universities, it uses five years of past enrollment from Texas counties differentiated by age and race/ethnicity and applies these enrollment rates to population projections prepared by the Texas State Data Center. Forecasts for independent colleges and universities are derived using simple linear regression, also based on five years of past data. The methodology for both public and independent institutions does not consider possible future changes that could affect enrollments, such as improvements in high school graduation rates, increases in higher education enrollment by racial/ethnic groups, or changes in local policies. For that reason, the Forecast is conservative; it projects future enrollments if current trends continue.

The five years used to determine this Forecast are fall 2009 through fall 2013. The growth rate at public and independent colleges and universities from fall 2009 through fall 2011 was 7.5 percent, whereas the rate from fall 2011 to fall 2013 was -1.2 percent. In this Forecast, the effect of the recent slowing in enrollment is moderated by the faster growth rate from 2009 to 2011 and exasperated by demographic changes.

The Enrollment Forecast concludes that, if current patterns persist, Texas public and independent two-year and four-year institutions will grow from the 1.44 million enrollees in fall 2014 to 1.47 million in 2015 (or 500,000 students more than in 2000). However, this does not include enrollments in the health-related institutions and career colleges. To begin the process of planning and preparing for the years beyond 2015, this report also estimates enrollments through 2025, which are predicted to be 1.64 million. (See Tables 1 and 2.)

The projections in this report are lower to comparable years from the January 2013 Forecast. The 1.47 million enrollments projected for 2015 are about 25 thousand lower than projected in 2013, and the 1.56 million students for 2020 is 16,000 less than the earlier 1.58 million estimate. That is because of the declining enrollment over the prior two years.

For public universities, fall 2014 enrollment totaled 604,000 students, or 119,000 more students than in fall 2005. For the five-year period from 2010 to 2015, enrollments are

1 projected to grow by 10.5 percent to 616,000 students, by 6.9 percent to reach 659,000 students in 2020, and then by 5.5 percent to reach 695,000 by 2025.

Texas public two-year colleges have generally grown more rapidly than universities since the mid-1960s and are expected to continue to have more students than universities despite the declines between 2011-2014. Public colleges’ enrollment for fall 2014 totaled 716,000 students, an increase of about 150,000 students (26.6 percent) over fall 2005 enrollment. This Enrollment Forecast estimates their enrollment will decline by -2.0 percent from 2010 to 2015 because of the decline in the most recent three years. The colleges’ pace of growth is anticipated to jump to 6.5 percent from 2015 to 2020. As a result of these increases, Texas public two-year colleges are expected to enroll about 775,000 students in 2020 and 816,000 in 2025.

About 124,000 students enrolled in Texas’ independent colleges and universities in fall 2014. Their enrollments are forecast to grow to 127,000 in 2015, 130,000 in 2020, and 132,000 in 2025.

No enrollment projections are made for health-related institutions because their enrollments are more closely tied to state policies than to state population changes.

Important Considerations

The following points should be remembered when reviewing this Forecast:

 The Texas State Data Center (TSDC) periodically updates its population projections and reconsiders the migration scenario that should be used for long- term projections. This Forecast continued to use the TSDC’s 2012 population projections and, on their recommendation, the 0.5 migration scenario, which assumes rates of net migration that are one-half of those from 2000 to 2010.

The total population projected for 2015 in the current enrollment forecast is 27,000,199; 3.6 percent lower than the prior projections. For the college-going 15-34 age group, the projected population is 5.3 percent smaller. Because the population forecast is an integral part of the projection methodology, the lower projected population has a direct effect on anticipated enrollments.

The other primary factor influencing projected enrollment is the recent enrollment trend. As mentioned previously, fall enrollment at public and independent colleges and universities grew by 7.5 percent from 2009 to 2011, followed by a decline of 1 percent from 2011 to 2013. The dramatic decline of the past year at public two-year colleges has been tempered in these projections by the faster growth in the earlier years and the conservative nature of the Forecast methodology.

The Forecast model is strongly influenced by historical in-state enrollment patterns at each institution and projected population changes by county. This Forecast should not accurately reflect future enrollment if institutions recruit students from different

2 geographic areas or ethnic groups, as is the goal of CTG. Institutional decisions to change or impose enrollment limitations would also reduce the Forecast’s accuracy.

Economics affect enrollment. Two-year college enrollment has usually expanded in times of increasing unemployment, in part because students want to prepare for better jobs. The early years of this forecast was no exception to this phenomenon. However, the last few years have shown what has happened many times before when the economy comes back many students, especially at the two-year level by-pass higher education for the workforce.

3 Table 1 Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts - Texas Institutions of Higher Education

Actual Actual Actual Actual Total Projections 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025

Public Universities 414,626 484,999 557,550 604,490 616,262 626,838 658,569 694,624

Public Two-Year Colleges 447,998 566,071 743,252 716,444 728,366 738,735 775,565 816,625

Independent Universities 108,315 114,984 122,894 124,436 126,925 127,742 130,193 132,978

Total 970,939 1,166,054 1,423,696 1,437,282 1,471,553 1,493,314 1,564,326 1,644,227

Table 2 Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment

2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Public Universities 72,551 15.0% 58,712 10.5% 42,306 6.9% 36,055 5.5%

Public Two-Year Colleges 177,181 31.3% -14,886 -2.0% 47,198 6.5% 41,060 5.3%

Independent Senior Colleges and Universities 7,910 6.9% 4,031 3.3% 3,268 2.6% 2,785 2.1%

Total 257,642 22.1% 47,857 3.4% 92,773 6.3% 79,901 5.1%

Figure 1 Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 10 Regions

Table 3 Enrollment Projections by Region Texas Public Institutions of Higher Education

Actual Actual Act/Prelim Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025

Central Texas Region Texas A&M University 44,578 49,129 56,602 59,500 62,500 66,875 70,000 Texas A&M University-Central Texas 0 2,317 2,384 2,449 2,484 2,620 2,777 Texas State University - San Marcos 27,129 32,572 36,790 36,905 37,339 38,830 40,604 The University of Texas at Austin 49,233 51,195 51,341 52,609 53,244 55,608 58,956 University Subtotal 120,940 135,213 147,117 151,462 155,567 163,933 172,338

Austin Community College 30,499 41,582 37,917 38,460 39,178 42,037 45,139 Blinn College 14,351 17,755 18,767 19,330 19,910 22,409 25,978 Central Texas College District 8,704 12,737 10,657 10,985 11,112 11,687 12,596 Hill College 3,084 4,429 4,026 4,049 4,104 4,252 4,346 McLennan Community College 7,638 9,912 8,291 8,274 8,301 8,414 8,606 Temple College 3,897 5,966 5,784 5,858 5,939 6,306 6,842 TSTC Waco Campus 4,528 4,976 4,082 4,192 4,231 4,338 4,444 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 72,701 97,357 89,524 91,148 92,774 99,443 107,951 Central Texas Regional Totals 193,641 232,570 236,641 242,610 248,341 263,376 280,288

Gulf Coast Region Prairie View A&M University 7,912 8,781 8,343 8,434 8,526 9,003 9,507 Sam Houston State University 15,308 17,236 19,573 19,849 20,032 20,505 21,200 Texas A&M University at Galveston 1,661 1,867 2,305 2,233 2,243 2,254 2,268 Texas Southern University 11,478 9,557 9,315 9,266 9,321 9,534 9,811 University of Houston 34,582 38,752 40,914 40,898 41,481 43,654 47,059 University of Houston-Clear Lake 7,826 8,099 8,668 8,732 8,779 9,083 9,583 University of Houston-Downtown 11,433 12,900 14,438 14,869 15,312 17,218 19,938 University Subtotal 90,200 97,192 103,556 104,281 105,693 111,251 119,366

Alvin Community College 3,828 5,721 4,914 5,007 5,111 5,452 5,871 Brazosport College 3,604 4,174 4,155 4,225 4,314 4,609 5,020 College of the Mainland Community College District 3,992 4,352 3,863 3,920 3,949 4,023 4,106 6

Actual Actual Act/Prelim Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 Galveston College 2,215 2,318 2,048 2,074 2,095 2,156 2,239 Houston Community College System 35,595 49,717 47,476 47,698 48,418 51,126 54,711 Lee College 4,576 6,719 6,629 6,483 6,554 6,755 7,031 Lone Star College System Cy-Fair College 9,799 16,861 18,693 19,161 19,337 19,974 21,076 Lone Star College System Kingwood College 6,837 9,807 11,778 12,180 12,291 12,641 13,171 Lone Star College System Montgomery College 7,971 11,154 12,031 12,325 12,597 13,519 14,514 Lone Star College System North Harris College 10,878 15,213 15,822 16,149 16,322 17,000 17,991 Lone Star College System Tomball College 7,600 10,791 7,609 7,755 7,819 8,011 8,277 Lone Star College System University Park 0 0 8,076 8,508 8,574 8,794 9,237 San Jacinto College Central Campus 12,627 15,035 13,764 13,889 14,027 14,633 15,608 San Jacinto College North Campus 5,529 6,573 7,509 7,590 7,679 8,054 8,621 San Jacinto College South Campus 8,554 10,497 10,892 10,853 10,991 11,494 12,302 Wharton County Junior College 6,008 6,922 7,220 7,233 7,444 8,086 8,596 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 129,613 175,854 182,479 185,049 187,521 196,328 208,370 Gulf Coast Regional Totals 219,813 273,046 286,035 289,330 293,214 307,579 327,736

High Plains Region Texas Tech University 27,940 31,587 34,853 34,985 35,272 36,379 37,810 West Texas A&M University 7,293 7,839 8,970 9,087 9,197 9,370 9,660 University Subtotal 35,233 39,426 43,823 44,072 44,469 45,749 47,470

Amarillo College 10,391 11,540 10,245 10,373 10,475 10,944 11,560 Clarendon College 1,116 1,583 1,211 1,204 1,223 1,254 1,306 Frank Phillips College 1,207 1,208 1,345 1,348 1,354 1,390 1,398 South Plains College 9,233 10,153 9,651 9,833 9,910 10,160 10,524 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 21,947 24,484 22,452 22,759 22,961 23,748 24,787 High Plains Regional Totals 57,180 63,910 66,275 66,830 67,430 69,497 72,257

Metroplex Region Tarleton State University 9,140 9,340 11,681 11,706 11,803 12,082 12,289 Texas A&M University-Commerce 8,677 10,280 11,490 12,015 12,194 12,817 13,479 Texas Woman's University 11,326 14,008 14,924 15,330 15,563 16,536 17,782 The University of Texas at Arlington 25,216 32,975 34,853 35,367 35,842 37,882 40,752 The University of Texas at Dallas 14,399 17,128 23,095 23,557 24,092 26,377 29,472

Actual Actual Act/Prelim Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 University of North Texas 31,947 36,067 36,171 36,485 37,011 39,110 41,570 University of North Texas at Dallas 0 2,084 2,583 2,597 2,627 2,755 2,938 University of North Texas at Dallas Law 0 0 153 203 253 453 503 University Subtotal 100,705 121,882 134,950 137,259 139,386 148,011 158,784

Collin County Community College District 18,221 26,501 28,091 28,999 30,067 33,800 37,067 DCCCD - Brookhaven College 9,725 10,847 9,763 10,110 10,213 10,713 11,494 DCCCD - Cedar Valley College 4,300 5,924 6,016 5,935 5,971 6,113 6,339 DCCCD - Eastfield College 9,452 10,852 12,739 12,774 12,888 13,329 14,062 DCCCD - El Centro College 6,629 9,823 9,474 9,648 9,748 10,138 10,668 DCCCD - Mountain View College 6,140 7,975 8,080 8,283 8,386 8,796 9,385 DCCCD - North Lake College 8,623 10,904 9,210 9,264 9,330 9,659 10,285 DCCCD - Richland College 13,552 16,858 16,155 16,407 16,494 16,962 17,993 Grayson County College 3,715 5,034 4,741 4,749 4,776 4,874 4,980 Navarro College 6,359 9,982 9,809 9,917 10,024 10,306 10,486 North Central Texas Community College District 6,967 9,402 10,114 10,252 10,482 11,362 12,085 TCCD - Northeast Campus 12,372 15,899 12,103 12,226 12,359 12,909 13,500 TCCD - Northwest Campus 7,356 12,032 8,849 8,840 8,955 9,425 9,939 TCCD - South Campus 9,885 11,690 8,540 8,617 8,760 9,336 9,957 TCCD - Southeast Campus 8,975 13,911 11,290 11,276 11,447 12,130 12,838 TCCD - Trinity River Campus 0 4,519 16,943 17,286 17,567 18,719 19,948 Weatherford College 4,437 5,651 5,610 5,787 5,885 6,154 6,435 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 136,708 187,804 187,527 190,369 193,350 204,726 217,461 Metroplex Regional Totals 237,413 309,686 322,477 327,629 332,736 352,737 376,245

Northwest Region Midwestern State University 6,182 6,133 5,874 6,316 6,385 6,575 6,842 University Subtotal 6,182 6,133 5,874 6,316 6,385 6,575 6,842

Cisco College 3,494 4,745 3,564 3,647 3,663 3,725 3,906 Ranger College 758 1,588 2,014 2,002 2,017 2,083 2,150 TSTC West Texas Campus 1,660 1,320 1,491 1,510 1,516 1,542 1,557 Vernon College 2,784 3,167 2,989 2,985 2,979 2,993 3,028 Western Texas College 1,756 2,307 2,069 2,072 2,077 2,112 2,166 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 10,452 13,127 12,127 12,216 12,252 12,455 12,807

Actual Actual Act/Prelim Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 Northwest Regional Totals 16,634 19,260 18,001 18,532 18,637 19,030 19,650

South Texas Region Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College 1,006 1,092 1,009 1,023 1,046 1,117 1,189 Texas A&M International University 4,298 6,853 7,554 7,692 7,882 8,433 8,744 Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi 8,355 10,033 11,256 11,358 11,488 11,801 12,034 Texas A&M University-Kingsville 6,662 6,586 8,728 8,917 9,060 9,406 9,657 Texas A&M University-San Antonio 0 3,120 4,521 4,650 4,717 5,007 5,333 The University of Texas at San Antonio 27,291 30,258 28,637 29,856 30,250 31,681 33,134 The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley 21,807 25,599 29,020 29,736 30,537 33,083 34,897 University of Houston-Victoria 2,491 4,095 4,407 4,639 4,719 5,053 5,452 University Subtotal 71,910 87,636 95,132 97,872 99,697 105,582 110,439

ACCD - Northeast Lakeview College 0 1,312 2,096 2,093 2,109 2,167 2,193 ACCD - Northwest Vista College 9,151 15,921 15,794 16,379 16,543 17,174 17,679 ACCD - Palo Alto College 8,065 8,965 8,241 8,544 8,659 9,031 9,311 ACCD - San Antonio College 21,555 25,269 21,358 21,625 21,880 22,834 23,670 ACCD - St. Philip's College 10,187 10,828 10,514 10,537 10,677 11,140 11,484 Coastal Bend College 3,353 4,348 3,822 3,859 3,932 3,998 4,132 Del Mar College 11,889 12,236 10,265 10,273 10,384 10,552 10,632 Laredo Community College 8,169 9,994 8,395 8,580 8,791 9,440 9,768 South Texas College 16,233 27,971 30,849 31,771 32,651 35,064 35,775 Southwest Texas Junior College 5,067 6,235 5,572 5,720 5,767 5,878 5,853 Texas Southmost College 10,517 11,043 3,895 3,967 4,053 4,297 4,393 TSTC Harlingen Campus 4,257 5,779 5,416 5,497 5,614 5,953 6,106 Victoria College 3,980 4,290 4,125 4,168 4,209 4,290 4,380 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 112,423 144,191 130,342 133,012 135,268 141,819 145,375 South Texas Regional Totals 184,333 231,827 225,474 230,884 234,966 247,401 255,814

Southeast Texas Region Lamar University 10,523 13,969 14,452 14,531 14,589 14,773 15,147 Stephen F. Austin State University 11,290 12,829 12,802 12,847 12,947 13,190 13,464 University Subtotal 21,813 26,798 27,254 27,377 27,535 27,963 28,612

Angelina College 4,756 5,904 5,207 5,259 5,280 5,313 5,422

Actual Actual Act/Prelim Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 Lamar Institute of Technology 2,711 3,243 2,898 2,853 2,861 2,887 2,963 Lamar State College-Orange 2,132 2,649 2,281 2,284 2,284 2,284 2,296 Lamar State College-Port Arthur 2,501 2,374 2,075 2,083 2,097 2,137 2,238 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 12,100 14,170 12,461 12,478 12,522 12,622 12,919 Southeast Texas Regional Totals 33,913 40,968 39,715 39,856 40,058 40,585 41,531

Upper East Texas Region Texas A&M University-Texarkana 1,549 1,803 1,812 1,868 1,882 1,923 1,952 The University of Texas at Tyler 5,746 6,446 8,036 8,096 8,134 8,370 8,718 University Subtotal 7,295 8,249 9,848 9,963 10,016 10,292 10,671

Kilgore College 4,815 6,661 5,777 5,885 5,904 6,025 6,238 Northeast Texas Community College 2,507 3,226 3,194 3,287 3,324 3,436 3,614 Panola College 1,922 2,322 2,563 2,613 2,637 2,704 2,726 Paris Junior College 4,264 6,197 5,086 5,411 5,467 5,558 5,659 Texarkana College 3,682 4,003 4,074 4,321 4,345 4,389 4,413 Trinity Valley Community College 5,658 7,594 6,755 7,065 7,185 7,508 7,837 TSTC Marshall Campus 565 949 868 875 881 895 911 Tyler Junior College 9,265 11,736 9,830 9,704 9,729 9,945 10,182 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 32,678 42,688 38,147 39,161 39,472 40,460 41,579 Upper East Texas Regional Totals 39,973 50,937 47,995 49,125 49,488 50,753 52,250

Upper Rio Grande Region Sul Ross State University 2,010 1,918 1,895 1,940 1,969 2,028 2,082 The University of Texas at El Paso 15,224 19,257 23,079 23,687 24,019 24,916 25,438 University Subtotal 17,234 21,175 24,974 25,627 25,988 26,944 27,520

El Paso Community College District 17,747 24,239 27,339 28,111 28,422 29,249 29,715 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 17,747 24,239 27,339 28,111 28,422 29,249 29,715 Upper Rio Grande Regional Totals 34,981 45,414 52,313 53,738 54,410 56,193 57,235

West Texas Region Angelo State University 6,290 6,140 6,396 6,488 6,542 6,612 6,735 The University of Texas of the Permian Basin 2,272 3,406 5,566 5,544 5,558 5,656 5,848

Actual Actual Act/Prelim Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 University Subtotal 8,562 9,546 11,962 12,032 12,100 12,268 12,583

Howard College 2,337 2,713 3,775 3,810 3,837 3,892 4,032 Midland College 4,841 5,584 5,105 5,107 5,148 5,300 5,648 Odessa College 4,568 4,788 5,021 4,998 5,058 5,365 5,812 Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf 135 125 145 148 150 158 168 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 11,881 13,210 14,046 14,063 14,192 14,715 15,659 West Texas Regional Totals 20,443 22,756 26,008 26,095 26,292 26,983 28,242

Public Total 862,624 1,051,070 1,320,934 1,344,628 1,365,572 1,434,133 1,511,249

*Actual enrollment and projections of Tarleton State University, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, and the University of North Texas have been affected by the creation of separate institutions (Texas A&M University-Central Texas, Texas A&M University-San Antonio, and the University of North Texas-Dallas) that were former higher education centers’ whose enrollments were included with the parent institutions’ counts. The University of Texas at Brownsville and The University of Texas-Pan American were combined into The University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley.

Table 4 Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts—Public Universities

Actual Actual Act/Prel Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025

Angelo State University 6,140 6,860 6,396 6,488 6,542 6,612 6,735 Lamar University 10,523 13,969 14,452 14,531 14,589 14,773 15,147 Midwestern State University 6,182 6,133 5,874 6,316 6,385 6,575 6,842 Prairie View A&M University 7,912 8,781 8,343 8,434 8,526 9,003 9,507 Sam Houston State University 15,308 17,236 19,573 19,849 20,032 20,505 21,200 Stephen F. Austin State University 11,290 12,829 12,802 12,847 12,947 13,190 13,464 Sul Ross State University 1,918 2,047 1,895 1,940 1,969 2,028 2,082 Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College 1,006 1,092 1,009 1,023 1,046 1,117 1,189 Tarleton State University 9,140 9,340 11,681 11,706 11,803 12,082 12,289 Texas A&M International University 4,298 6,853 7,554 7,692 7,882 8,433 8,744 Texas A&M University 44,578 49,129 56,602 59,500 62,500 66,875 70,000 Texas A&M University at Galveston 1,661 1,867 2,305 2,233 2,243 2,254 2,268 Texas A&M University-Central Texas 0 2,317 2,384 2,449 2,484 2,620 2,777 Texas A&M University-Commerce 8,677 10,280 11,490 12,015 12,194 12,817 13,479 Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi 8,355 10,033 11,256 11,358 11,488 11,801 12,034 Texas A&M University-Kingsville 6,662 6,586 8,728 8,917 9,060 9,406 9,657 Texas A&M University-San Antonio 0 3,120 4,521 4,650 4,717 5,007 5,333 Texas A&M University-Texarkana 1,549 1,803 1,812 1,868 1,882 1,923 1,952 Texas Southern University 11,478 9,557 9,315 9,266 9,321 9,534 9,811 Texas State University - San Marcos 27,129 32,572 36,790 36,905 37,339 38,830 40,604 Texas Tech University 27,940 31,587 34,853 34,985 35,272 36,379 37,810 Texas Woman's University 11,326 14,008 14,924 15,330 15,563 16,536 17,782 The University of Texas at Arlington 25,216 32,975 34,853 35,367 35,842 37,882 40,752 The University of Texas at Austin 49,233 51,195 51,341 52,609 53,244 55,608 58,956 The University of Texas at Dallas 14,399 17,128 23,095 23,557 24,092 26,377 29,472 The University of Texas at El Paso 19,257 22,051 23,079 23,687 24,019 24,916 25,438 The University of Texas at San Antonio 27,291 30,258 28,637 29,856 30,250 31,681 33,134 The University of Texas at Tyler 5,746 6,446 8,036 8,096 8,134 8,370 8,718 The University of Texas of the Permian Basin 3,406 4,063 5,566 5,544 5,558 5,656 5,848 The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley 21,807 25,599 29,020 29,736 30,537 33,083 34,897 University of Houston 34,582 38,752 40,914 40,898 41,481 43,654 47,059

Actual Actual Act/Prel Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 University of Houston-Clear Lake 7,826 8,099 8,668 8,732 8,779 9,083 9,583 University of Houston-Downtown 11,433 12,900 14,438 14,869 15,312 17,218 19,938 University of Houston-Victoria 2,491 4,095 4,407 4,639 4,719 5,053 5,452 University of North Texas 31,947 36,067 36,171 36,485 37,011 39,110 41,570 University of North Texas at Dallas 0 2,084 2,583 2,597 2,627 2,755 2,938 University of North Texas at Dallas Law 0 0 153 203 253 453 503 West Texas A&M University 7,293 7,839 8,970 9,087 9,197 9,370 9,660

University Statewide Totals 484,999 557,550 604,490 616,262 626,838 658,569 694,624

Table 5 Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment—Public Universities 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Angelo State University 720 11.7% (372) -5.4% 123 1.9% 123 1.9% Lamar University 3,446 32.7% 562 4.0% 243 1.7% 374 2.5% Midwestern State University (49) -0.8% 183 3.0% 259 4.1% 267 4.1% Prairie View A&M University 869 11.0% (347) -4.0% 569 6.7% 504 5.6% Sam Houston State University 1,928 12.6% 2,613 15.2% 656 3.3% 695 3.4% Stephen F. Austin State University 1,539 13.6% 18 0.1% 343 2.7% 274 2.1% Sul Ross State University 129 6.7% (107) -5.2% 88 4.5% 54 2.7% Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College 86 8.5% (69) -6.3% 94 9.2% 72 6.4% Tarleton State University 200 2.2% 2,366 25.3% 376 3.2% 207 1.7% Texas A&M International University 2,555 59.4% 839 12.2% 740 9.6% 311 3.7% Texas A&M University 4,551 10.2% 10,371 21.1% 7,375 12.4% 3,125 4.7% Texas A&M University at Galveston 206 12.4% 366 19.6% 21 0.9% 13 0.6% Texas A&M University-Central Texas 2,317 N/A 132 5.7% 171 7.0% 157 6.0% Texas A&M University-Commerce 1,603 18.5% 1,735 16.9% 802 6.7% 662 5.2% Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi 1,678 20.1% 1,325 13.2% 443 3.9% 234 2.0% Texas A&M University-Kingsville (76) -1.1% 2,331 35.4% 489 5.5% 251 2.7% Texas A&M University-San Antonio 3,120 N/A 1,530 49.0% 357 7.7% 325 6.5% Texas A&M University-Texarkana 254 16.4% 65 3.6% 55 3.0% 29 1.5% Texas Southern University (1,921) -16.7% (291) -3.0% 268 2.9% 276 2.9% Texas State University - San Marcos 5,443 20.1% 4,333 13.3% 1,925 5.2% 1,774 4.6% Texas Tech University 3,647 13.1% 3,398 10.8% 1,394 4.0% 1,431 3.9% Texas Woman's University 2,682 23.7% 1,322 9.4% 1,206 7.9% 1,246 7.5% The University of Texas at Arlington 7,759 30.8% 2,392 7.3% 2,515 7.1% 2,870 7.6% The University of Texas at Austin 1,962 4.0% 1,414 2.8% 2,999 5.7% 3,348 6.0% The University of Texas at Dallas 2,729 19.0% 6,429 37.5% 2,820 12.0% 3,095 11.7% The University of Texas at El Paso 2,794 14.5% 1,636 7.4% 1,229 5.2% 522 2.1% The University of Texas at San Antonio 2,967 10.9% (402) -1.3% 1,826 6.1% 1,453 4.6% The University of Texas at Tyler 700 12.2% 1,650 25.6% 274 3.4% 349 4.2% The University of Texas of the Permian Basin 657 19.3% 1,481 36.5% 112 2.0% 192 3.4% The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley 1,696 9.9% 4,137 16.2% 3,347 11.3% 1,814 5.5% University of Houston 4,170 12.1% 2,146 5.5% 2,756 6.7% 3,405 7.8% University of Houston-Clear Lake 273 3.5% 633 7.8% 351 4.0% 501 5.5% University of Houston-Downtown 1,467 12.8% 1,969 15.3% 2,349 15.8% 2,720 15.8%

2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent University of Houston-Victoria 1,604 64.4% 544 13.3% 414 8.9% 398 7.9% University of North Texas 4,120 12.9% 418 1.2% 2,624 7.2% 2,460 6.3% University of North Texas at Dallas 2,084 N/A 513 24.6% 158 6.1% 183 6.7% University of North Texas at Dallas Law 203 NA 250 123.2% 50 11.0% West Texas A&M University 546 7.5% 1,248 15.9% 283 3.1% 290 3.1%

University Statewide Totals 72,551 15.0% 58,712 10.5% 42,306 6.9% 36,055 5.5%

Table 6 Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecast—Public Two-Year Colleges

Actual Actual Act/Prel Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 ACCD - Northeast Lakeview College 0 1,312 2,096 2,093 2,109 2,167 2,193 ACCD - Northwest Vista College 9,151 15,921 15,794 16,379 16,543 17,174 17,679 ACCD - Palo Alto College 8,065 8,965 8,241 8,544 8,659 9,031 9,311 ACCD - San Antonio College 21,555 25,269 21,358 21,625 21,880 22,834 23,670 ACCD - St. Philip's College 10,187 10,828 10,514 10,537 10,677 11,140 11,484 Alvin Community College 3,828 5,721 4,914 5,007 5,111 5,452 5,871 Amarillo College 10,391 11,540 10,245 10,373 10,475 10,944 11,560 Angelina College 4,756 5,904 5,207 5,259 5,280 5,313 5,422 Austin Community College 30,499 41,582 37,917 38,460 39,178 42,037 45,139 Blinn College 14,351 17,755 18,767 19,330 19,910 22,409 25,978 Brazosport College 3,604 4,174 4,155 4,225 4,314 4,609 5,020 Central Texas College District 8,704 12,737 10,657 10,985 11,112 11,687 12,596 Cisco College 3,494 4,745 3,564 3,647 3,663 3,725 3,906 Clarendon College 1,116 1,583 1,211 1,204 1,223 1,254 1,306 Coastal Bend College 3,353 4,348 3,822 3,859 3,932 3,998 4,132 College of the Mainland Community College District 3,992 4,352 3,863 3,920 3,949 4,023 4,106 Collin County Community College District 18,221 26,501 28,091 28,999 30,067 33,800 37,067 DCCCD - Brookhaven College 9,725 10,847 9,763 10,110 10,213 10,713 11,494 DCCCD - Cedar Valley College 4,300 5,924 6,016 5,935 5,971 6,113 6,339 DCCCD - Eastfield College 9,452 10,852 12,739 12,774 12,888 13,329 14,062 DCCCD - El Centro College 6,629 9,823 9,474 9,648 9,748 10,138 10,668 DCCCD - Mountain View College 6,140 7,975 8,080 8,283 8,386 8,796 9,385 DCCCD - North Lake College 8,623 10,904 9,210 9,264 9,330 9,659 10,285 DCCCD - Richland College 13,552 16,858 16,155 16,407 16,494 16,962 17,993 Del Mar College 11,889 12,236 10,265 10,273 10,384 10,552 10,632 El Paso Community College District 24,239 27,337 27,339 28,111 28,422 29,249 29,715 Frank Phillips College 1,207 1,208 1,345 1,348 1,354 1,390 1,398 Galveston College 2,215 2,318 2,048 2,074 2,095 2,156 2,239 Grayson County College 3,715 5,034 4,741 4,749 4,776 4,874 4,980 Hill College 3,084 4,429 4,026 4,049 4,104 4,252 4,346

Actual Actual Act/Prel Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 Houston Community College System 35,595 49,717 47,476 47,698 48,418 51,126 54,711 Howard College 2,713 4,582 3,775 3,810 3,837 3,892 4,032 Kilgore College 4,815 6,661 5,777 5,885 5,904 6,025 6,238 Lamar Institute of Technology 2,711 3,243 2,898 2,853 2,861 2,887 2,963 Lamar State College-Orange 2,132 2,649 2,281 2,284 2,284 2,284 2,296 Lamar State College-Port Arthur 2,501 2,374 2,075 2,083 2,097 2,137 2,238 Laredo Community College 8,169 9,994 8,395 8,580 8,791 9,440 9,768 Lee College 4,576 6,719 6,629 6,483 6,554 6,755 7,031 Lone Star College System Cy-Fair College 9,799 16,861 18,693 19,161 19,337 19,974 21,076 Lone Star College System Kingwood College 6,837 9,807 11,778 12,180 12,291 12,641 13,171 Lone Star College System Montgomery College 7,971 11,154 12,031 12,325 12,597 13,519 14,514 Lone Star College System North Harris College 10,878 15,213 15,822 16,149 16,322 17,000 17,991 Lone Star College System Tomball College 7,600 10,791 7,609 7,755 7,819 8,011 8,277 Lone Star College System University Park 0 0 8,076 8,508 8,574 8,794 9,237 McLennan Community College 7,638 9,912 8,291 8,274 8,301 8,414 8,606 Midland College 5,584 6,344 5,105 5,107 5,148 5,300 5,648 Navarro College 6,359 9,982 9,809 9,917 10,024 10,306 10,486 North Central Texas Community College District 6,967 9,402 10,114 10,252 10,482 11,362 12,085 Northeast Texas Community College 2,507 3,226 3,194 3,287 3,324 3,436 3,614 Odessa College 4,788 5,211 5,021 4,998 5,058 5,365 5,812 Panola College 1,922 2,322 2,563 2,613 2,637 2,704 2,726 Paris Junior College 4,264 6,197 5,086 5,411 5,467 5,558 5,659 Ranger College 758 1,588 2,014 2,002 2,017 2,083 2,150 San Jacinto College Central Campus 12,627 15,035 13,764 13,889 14,027 14,633 15,608 San Jacinto College North Campus 5,529 6,573 7,509 7,590 7,679 8,054 8,621 San Jacinto College South Campus 8,554 10,497 10,892 10,853 10,991 11,494 12,302 South Plains College 9,233 10,153 9,651 9,833 9,910 10,160 10,524 South Texas College 16,233 27,971 30,849 31,771 32,651 35,064 35,775 Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf 125 103 145 148 150 158 168 Southwest Texas Junior College 5,067 6,235 5,572 5,720 5,767 5,878 5,853

Actual Actual Act/Prel Total Projections 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 TCCD - Northeast Campus 12,372 15,899 12,103 12,226 12,359 12,909 13,500 TCCD - Northwest Campus 7,356 12,032 8,849 8,840 8,955 9,425 9,939 TCCD - South Campus 9,885 11,690 8,540 8,617 8,760 9,336 9,957 TCCD - Southeast Campus 8,975 13,911 11,290 11,276 11,447 12,130 12,838 TCCD - Trinity River Campus 0 4,519 16,943 17,286 17,567 18,719 19,948 Temple College 3,897 5,966 5,784 5,858 5,939 6,306 6,842 Texarkana College 3,682 4,003 4,074 4,321 4,345 4,389 4,413 Texas Southmost College 10,517 11,043 3,895 3,967 4,053 4,297 4,393 Trinity Valley Community College 5,658 7,594 6,755 7,065 7,185 7,508 7,837 TSTC Harlingen Campus 4,257 5,779 5,416 5,497 5,614 5,953 6,106 TSTC Marshall Campus 565 949 868 875 881 895 911 TSTC Waco Campus 4,528 4,976 4,082 4,192 4,231 4,338 4,444 TSTC West Texas Campus 1,660 1,320 1,491 1,510 1,516 1,542 1,557 Tyler Junior College 9,265 11,736 9,830 9,704 9,729 9,945 10,182 Vernon College 2,784 3,167 2,989 2,985 2,979 2,993 3,028 Victoria College 3,980 4,290 4,125 4,168 4,209 4,290 4,380 Weatherford College 4,437 5,651 5,610 5,787 5,885 6,154 6,435 Western Texas College 1,756 2,307 2,069 2,072 2,077 2,112 2,166 Wharton County Junior College 6,008 6,922 7,220 7,233 7,444 8,086 8,596

Two-Year Colleges Statewide Totals 566,071 743,252 716,444 728,366 738,735 775,565 816,625

Table 7 Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment—Public Two-Year Colleges

2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent ACCD - Northeast Lakeview College 1,312 N/A 781 59.5% 75 3.6% 26 1.2% ACCD - Northwest Vista College 6,770 74.0% 458 2.9% 796 4.9% 505 2.9% ACCD - Palo Alto College 900 11.2% (421) -4.7% 488 5.7% 279 3.1% ACCD - San Antonio College 3,714 17.2% (3,644) -14.4% 1,209 5.6% 836 3.7% ACCD - St. Philip's College 641 6.3% (291) -2.7% 603 5.7% 344 3.1% Alvin Community College 1,893 49.5% (714) -12.5% 445 8.9% 420 7.7% Amarillo College 1,149 11.1% (1,167) -10.1% 571 5.5% 615 5.6% Angelina College 1,148 24.1% (645) -10.9% 54 1.0% 109 2.1% Austin Community College 11,083 36.3% (3,122) -7.5% 3,577 9.3% 3,102 7.4% Blinn College 3,404 23.7% 1,575 8.9% 3,079 15.9% 3,569 15.9% Brazosport College 570 15.8% 51 1.2% 384 9.1% 411 8.9% Central Texas College District 4,033 46.3% (1,752) -13.8% 702 6.4% 909 7.8% Cisco College 1,251 35.8% (1,098) -23.1% 78 2.1% 181 4.9% Clarendon College 467 41.8% (379) -23.9% 50 4.2% 52 4.1% Coastal Bend College 995 29.7% (489) -11.2% 139 3.6% 134 3.4% College of the Mainland Community College District 360 9.0% (432) -9.9% 103 2.6% 82 2.0% Collin County Community College District 8,280 45.4% 2,498 9.4% 4,801 16.6% 3,266 9.7% DCCCD - Brookhaven College 1,122 11.5% (737) -6.8% 603 6.0% 781 7.3% DCCCD - Cedar Valley College 1,624 37.8% 11 0.2% 177 3.0% 227 3.7% DCCCD - Eastfield College 1,400 14.8% 1,922 17.7% 555 4.3% 733 5.5% DCCCD - El Centro College 3,194 48.2% (175) -1.8% 490 5.1% 529 5.2% DCCCD - Mountain View College 1,835 29.9% 308 3.9% 513 6.2% 589 6.7% DCCCD - North Lake College 2,281 26.5% (1,640) -15.0% 395 4.3% 626 6.5% DCCCD - Richland College 3,306 24.4% (451) -2.7% 555 3.4% 1,031 6.1% Del Mar College 347 2.9% (1,963) -16.0% 279 2.7% 80 0.8% El Paso Community College District 3,098 12.8% 774 2.8% 1,138 4.0% 467 1.6% Frank Phillips College 1 0.1% 140 11.6% 42 3.1% 8 0.6% Galveston College 103 4.7% (244) -10.5% 82 4.0% 83 3.8% Grayson County College 1,319 35.5% (285) -5.7% 125 2.6% 106 2.2% Hill College 1,345 43.6% (380) -8.6% 203 5.0% 94 2.2%

2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Houston Community College System 14,122 39.7% (2,019) -4.1% 3,429 7.2% 3,585 7.0% Howard College 1,869 68.9% (772) -16.8% 82 2.1% 140 3.6% Kilgore College 1,846 38.3% (776) -11.6% 140 2.4% 212 3.5% Lamar Institute of Technology 532 19.6% (390) -12.0% 34 1.2% 76 2.6% Lamar State College-Orange 517 24.2% (365) -13.8% 1 0.0% 12 0.5% Lamar State College-Port Arthur (127) -5.1% (291) -12.3% 55 2.6% 101 4.7% Laredo Community College 1,825 22.3% (1,414) -14.1% 860 10.0% 328 3.5% Lee College 2,143 46.8% (236) -3.5% 272 4.2% 276 4.1% Lone Star College System Cy-Fair College 7,062 72.1% 2,300 13.6% 814 4.2% 1,101 5.5% Lone Star College System Kingwood College 2,970 43.4% 2,373 24.2% 461 3.8% 531 4.2% Lone Star College System Montgomery College 3,183 39.9% 1,171 10.5% 1,195 9.7% 995 7.4% Lone Star College System North Harris College 4,335 39.9% 936 6.1% 851 5.3% 991 5.8% Lone Star College System Tomball College 3,191 42.0% (3,036) -28.1% 257 3.3% 266 3.3% Lone Star College System University Park 0 N/A 8,508 NA 285 3.4% 443 5.0% McLennan Community College 2,274 29.8% (1,638) -16.5% 140 1.7% 192 2.3% Midland College 760 13.6% (1,237) -19.5% 194 3.8% 347 6.6% Navarro College 3,623 57.0% (65) -0.7% 390 3.9% 180 1.7% North Central Texas Community College District 2,435 35.0% 850 9.0% 1,111 10.8% 723 6.4% Northeast Texas Community College 719 28.7% 61 1.9% 149 4.5% 178 5.2% Odessa College 423 8.8% (213) -4.1% 367 7.3% 447 8.3% Panola College 400 20.8% 291 12.5% 91 3.5% 22 0.8% Paris Junior College 1,933 45.3% (786) -12.7% 148 2.7% 100 1.8% Ranger College 830 109.5% 414 26.1% 81 4.1% 67 3.2% San Jacinto College Central Campus 2,408 19.1% (1,146) -7.6% 744 5.4% 975 6.7% San Jacinto College North Campus 1,044 18.9% 1,017 15.5% 463 6.1% 567 7.0% San Jacinto College South Campus 1,943 22.7% 356 3.4% 641 5.9% 808 7.0% South Plains College 920 10.0% (320) -3.1% 327 3.3% 364 3.6% South Texas College 11,738 72.3% 3,800 13.6% 3,292 10.4% 711 2.0% Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf (22) -17.6% 45 43.7% 10 6.9% 10 6.0% Southwest Texas Junior College 1,168 23.1% (515) -8.3% 158 2.8% (25) -0.4% TCCD - Northeast Campus 3,527 28.5% (3,673) -23.1% 683 5.6% 590 4.6% TCCD - Northwest Campus 4,676 63.6% (3,192) -26.5% 585 6.6% 514 5.5% TCCD - South Campus 1,805 18.3% (3,073) -26.3% 719 8.3% 621 6.6% TCCD - Southeast Campus 4,936 55.0% (2,635) -18.9% 854 7.6% 708 5.8%

2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent TCCD - Trinity River Campus 4,519 N/A 12,767 282.5% 1,433 8.3% 1,229 6.6% Temple College 2,069 53.1% (108) -1.8% 448 7.6% 537 8.5% Texarkana College 321 8.7% 318 7.9% 68 1.6% 24 0.5% Texas Southmost College 526 5.0% (7,076) -64.1% 330 8.3% 96 2.2% Trinity Valley Community College 1,936 34.2% (529) -7.0% 443 6.3% 329 4.4% TSTC Harlingen Campus 1,522 35.8% (282) -4.9% 456 8.3% 153 2.6% TSTC Marshall Campus 384 68.0% (74) -7.8% 20 2.3% 16 1.8% TSTC Waco Campus 448 9.9% (784) -15.8% 147 3.5% 105 2.4% TSTC West Texas Campus (340) -20.5% 190 14.4% 32 2.1% 16 1.0% Tyler Junior College 2,471 26.7% (2,032) -17.3% 241 2.5% 237 2.4% Vernon College 383 13.8% (182) -5.7% 8 0.3% 35 1.2% Victoria College 310 7.8% (122) -2.8% 122 2.9% 90 2.1% Weatherford College 1,214 27.4% 136 2.4% 367 6.3% 281 4.6% Western Texas College 551 31.4% (235) -10.2% 40 1.9% 55 2.6% Wharton County Junior College 914 15.2% 311 4.5% 853 11.8% 510 6.3%

Two-Year Colleges Statewide Totals 177,181 31.3% (14,886) -2.0% 47,198 6.5% 41,060 5.3%

Figure 2 Enrollment Forecast Development Process

Institutions’ Historical ratio 2009-2013 Fall 2014 between in-state Historical Preliminary/ Adjustment and non-resident Enrollment by Actual for institutions’ enrollment by county/age/ in-state policies and institution ethnicity enrollment by local conditions institution

3 alternative in- Compare Draft total state 3 forecasts with 3 in-state enrollment enrollment rates 2014 preliminary Enrollment forecasts for forecast by by institution/ and select “best Forecast 2014 for each institution county/age/ fit” rate for each institution ethnicity institution

Texas pop. by Adjust in-state Use “best fit” rate & Forecast by county/age/ethnicity pop. to forecast 2014 2014, thru 2020, 2025, Institution for and 2025 2014, 2015 thru 202043 in-state enrollment 2015 thru 2020, at institution 2025, and 2025 2025 2025

Texas Public College and University Enrollment Forecast Methodology

Enrollment forecasts were developed for each public college and university. Aggregate enrollment forecasts for the 38 public universities, the 50 public community college districts, four public technical colleges, and three state colleges were determined by examining institutional fall headcount enrollments. The forecast methodology used five years of age and racial/ethnic-specific historical public higher education enrollment for each Texas county. These enrollment data were combined with age and racial/ethnic- specific population projection data. (See Figure 3.) The individual forecasts were produced using multiple regression techniques and, in a few instances, were modified using documented adjustment factors submitted by individual institutions. A general description of the forecast steps follows. More detailed descriptions are presented in subsequent sections.

 For in-state student enrollment, five years (2009-2013) of enrollment data for students from each county were subdivided into age and racial/ethnic groups (Hispanic, African American, white, and other) at each institution. These data were matched with county population estimates from TSDC to develop three alternative, age-specific, in-state participation rates for each of the four racial/ethnic groups in each of the 254 counties. The three alternative rates were applied to 2014 population estimates to derive three alternative in-state fall 2014 enrollment levels for each institution.

 Each institution’s three alternative forecasts were compared with its preliminary in-state enrollment for fall 2014 and with past enrollment trends. The “best fit” forecast rate chosen was that closest to the preliminary enrollment. If necessary, the “best fit” enrollment was adjusted using a multiplier, to calculate a rate within +3 percent of the in-state headcount.

 The “best fit” enrollment rate (possibly including an adjustment multiplier) for each institution was applied to projected population data, by county/age/ethnicity, for 2014 - 2016, 2020, and 2025 to obtain a forecast of in- state enrollment for each institution. The resulting forecast was based on a fixed enrollment rate for the entire forecast period.

 Non-Texas resident enrollment, which includes both out-of-state and foreign students, was determined by examining the five-year record (2009-2013) and computing a ratio of nonresident to in-state students for each institution. These historical data were compared with the preliminary fall 2014 institutional reports of nonresidential enrollments. The “best fit” ratio was used to compute nonresident enrollment for 2014 - 2016, 2020, and 2025.

 The calculated in-state and nonresident enrollment for each institution was combined to obtain a draft total enrollment forecast for 2014 - 2016, 2020, and 2025.

 An adjustment was made to the draft total enrollment for some institutions based on known enrollment management policies. Also, the draft forecast was

sent to each institution for review prior to final publication. Based on conditions unique to specific institutions which could not be accounted for in the methodology, some adjustments were made. The accuracy of the past forecasts was also taken into consideration when evaluating institutional adjustment suggestions.

Historical Enrollment

Tables 8, 9, 10, and 11 provide enrollment data since 2009. Data in these tables present in-state and nonresident enrollments at all public universities and public two-year colleges statewide by age and race/ethnicity. This same enrollment information is available at the county level for each of the public institutions. Between 2000 and 2014, enrollment increased at public universities by 189,900 students (45.8 percent). At public community and technical colleges, enrollment increased by 268,400 students, or 60 percent.

At both types of institutions, increases have been greater for Hispanics than for African American, white and other students. Nevertheless, in 2014, white students made up 40.8 percent of the enrollment at public universities and 35.7 percent at public two-year colleges. Texas residents comprised 89 percent of all students at public universities and 95.2 percent at public two-year colleges.

Table 8 Fall In-State Enrollment by Age and Race/Ethnicity—Public Universities

Age Age Age Age Age Age All Year 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-Up Ages 2009 White 57,675 114,375 31,862 14,509 9,576 18,807 246,815 African American 15,878 23,500 7,685 4,550 3,303 5,064 59,981 Hispanic 35,902 54,831 18,367 8,885 5,483 6,807 130,483 Other 11,555 19,606 5,659 2,270 1,455 1,785 42,344 Total 121,010 212,312 63,573 30,214 19,817 32,463 479,623 2010 White 55,381 112,049 32,221 15,178 9,616 18,695 243,145 African American 16,363 24,390 8,162 5,006 3,587 5,740 63,248 Hispanic 39,466 59,770 19,819 9,515 5,805 7,218 141,691 Other 15,532 23,662 7,310 3,185 2,005 2,858 54,568 Total 126,742 219,871 67,512 32,884 21,013 34,511 502,652 2011 White 55,116 109,792 31,996 15,992 9,231 18,593 240,726 African American 17,081 25,111 8,293 5,270 3,610 6,196 65,563 Hispanic 43,981 64,518 20,489 9,886 5,866 7,541 152,377 Other 14,682 25,575 7,481 3,209 1,870 2,786 55,610 Total 130,860 224,996 68,259 34,357 20,577 35,116 514,276 2012 White 54,118 108,099 30,509 15,990 9,194 18,273 236,191 African American 17,223 25,891 8,185 5,401 3,600 6,454 66,755 Hispanic 45,468 70,122 20,714 10,340 6,022 7,684 160,476 Other 15,257 26,088 7,318 3,138 1,799 2,528 56,184 Total 132,066 230,200 66,726 34,869 20,615 34,939 519,606 2013 White 55,019 105,696 28,981 15,668 9,146 17,571 232,205 African American 16,698 26,421 8,004 5,213 3,532 6,438 66,319 Hispanic 49,084 75,429 21,137 10,283 5,877 7,806 169,778 Other 15,806 26,493 7,361 3,178 1,747 2,601 57,224 Total 136,607 234,039 65,483 34,342 20,302 34,416 525,526

Table 9 Fall In-State and Nonresident Enrollment for Public Universities

In-State Nonresident Total Year Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment

2009 479,623 52,603 532,226 2010 502,652 54,898 557,550 2011 514,276 54,662 568,938 2012 519,606 57,087 576,693 2013 525,526 59,259 584,785 2014 539,266 65,224 604,490

Table 10 Fall In-State Enrollment by Age and Race/Ethnicity—Public Two-Year Colleges

Age Age Age Age Age Age All Year 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-Up Ages

2009 White 113,337 85,773 36,455 20,470 14,212 27,627 298,551 African American 22,665 20,952 12,356 9,097 6,788 10,629 82,868 Hispanic 93,768 71,668 28,542 15,521 9,788 12,375 233,506 Other 15,783 14,708 5,799 3,161 2,369 3,461 45,629 Total 245,553 193,101 83,152 48,249 33,157 54,092 660,554 2010 White 107,948 84,938 38,508 22,188 14,756 29,035 298,005 African American 23,952 23,893 13,877 10,970 7,912 13,206 94,100 Hispanic 98,656 79,899 31,502 17,559 10,836 13,748 253,461 Other 24,428 18,885 8,025 4,637 3,259 5,116 64,598 Total 254,984 207,615 91,912 55,354 36,763 61,105 710,164 2011 White 103,275 81,123 37,351 22,317 13,935 28,922 287,537 African American 25,634 27,196 14,865 11,960 8,433 14,577 102,955 Hispanic 106,903 85,086 31,709 18,022 10,690 14,161 267,971 Other 23,593 18,590 7,599 4,421 2,867 4,608 62,011 Total 259,405 211,995 91,524 56,720 35,925 62,268 720,474 2012 White 99,806 74,490 34,030 21,494 13,128 27,497 271,024 African American 24,794 25,098 13,850 11,685 8,099 15,468 99,325 Hispanic 112,433 85,858 30,253 17,143 10,187 13,696 271,168 Other 21,970 18,203 6,976 4,273 2,720 4,442 58,814 Total 259,003 203,649 85,109 54,595 34,134 61,103 700,331 2013 White 100,505 70,566 31,855 19,968 12,134 25,326 261,112 African American 25,104 24,436 13,026 10,850 7,905 16,043 97,787 Hispanic 114,279 88,159 29,548 16,735 9,611 12,978 273,183 Other 22,050 17,971 6,630 3,976 2,348 4,100 57,360 Total 261,938 201,132 81,059 51,529 31,998 58,447 689,442

Table 11 Fall In-State and Nonresident Enrollment for Public Two-Year Colleges

In-State Nonresident Total Year Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment

2009 660,554 32,291 692,845 2010 710,164 33,088 743,252 2011 720,474 32,514 752,988 2012 700,331 31,781 732,112 2013 689,442 30,399 719,841

Texas Population Projections

The Enrollment Forecast used the TSDC population projections, completed in fall 2012, which are based on a cohort-component technique. Projections from base population estimates provided by the 2010 federal census were made individually for people with common characteristics (in this case age, gender, and race/ethnicity) for fertility, mortality, and migration.

Age, gender, and race/ethnicity-specific fertility rates were computed using recorded births and place of residence of the mother. This information was obtained from the Texas Department of Health. Data on women by age (10 to 49) and race/ethnicity were obtained from the 2010 federal census of the population. Life survival rates for whites, Hispanics, African Americans, and others were computed using Texas Department of Health mortality data.

TSDC develops alternative forecasts based on the net migration rates for different time periods. Migration rates were derived using net migration estimates by age, gender and race/ethnicity for the appropriate timeframe. Population projections used in this Enrollment Forecast assumed net migration rates that were half of those experienced from 2000 to 2010; this is called the 0.5 migration scenario. The prior Forecast used TSDC’s 2010 projections and their recommended 2000-2007 migration scenario. The 0.5 migration scenario produced a population projection for 2015 that is 3.6 percent lower than the projection used in the previous report.

Statewide population projections show several significant features of the future Texas population (see Table 12):

 Between 2014 and 2025, the total population will grow by nearly 16 percent.  Hispanics will continue to be the fastest growing racial/ethnic group. In 2014, Hispanics comprised 39.2 percent of the population; by 2025, this share will reach 43.7 percent. The African American share will decline from 11.5 percent to 11.3 percent, while the white percentage will drop from 43.4 percent in 2014 to 38.3 percent in 2025.  The 35 and older age group will increase almost twice as much, numerically, than the under 35 age group, from 49 percent of the population in 2014 to 51.4 percent of the population in 2025.  The 15-to-34 year-old population, which made up 28.7 percent of the total in 2014, will drop to 27.6 percent in 2025. The ethnic make-up of this group will change from 44.6 percent Hispanic in 2014 to 50.3 percent in 2025.

Although Table 12 shows the populations at the statewide level only, similar data are available for each of the 254 Texas counties.

Table 12 Texas Statewide Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity

Age Age Age Age Age Age Age All Year 0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-Up Ages

2014 White 1,932,047 665,707 695,800 721,051 750,320 689,136 6,108,846 11,562,907 African American 676,240 236,309 249,644 219,756 222,892 209,094 1,239,232 3,053,167 Hispanic 2,969,158 910,087 878,183 811,742 806,845 750,880 3,316,137 10,443,032 Other 370,534 114,551 109,727 115,989 127,231 124,945 601,572 1,564,549 Total 5,947,979 1,926,654 1,933,354 1,868,538 1,907,288 1,774,055 11,265,787 26,623,655

2015 White 1,934,138 665,295 689,028 710,785 752,357 701,023 6,147,258 11,599,884 African American 677,774 237,412 250,698 224,454 220,966 215,788 1,267,296 3,094,388 Hispanic 3,002,753 937,232 899,172 828,998 814,093 765,785 3,450,873 10,698,906 Other 373,335 118,981 112,510 116,342 129,234 127,152 629,467 1,607,021 Total 5,988,000 1,958,920 1,951,408 1,880,579 1,916,650 1,809,748 11,494,894 27,000,199

2016 White 1,936,405 664,481 681,285 703,418 750,575 718,099 6,180,564 11,634,827 African American 679,781 239,419 248,604 230,554 220,245 221,826 1,294,879 3,135,308 Hispanic 3,034,983 966,747 916,793 851,011 822,277 782,067 3,585,227 10,959,105 Other 374,758 124,161 115,970 117,081 130,993 129,539 657,472 1,649,974 Total 6,025,927 1,994,808 1,962,652 1,902,064 1,924,090 1,851,531 11,718,142 27,379,214

2020 White 1,950,811 648,863 663,353 687,404 716,128 756,908 6,329,060 11,752,527 African American 691,413 240,825 242,535 251,102 228,010 228,488 1,412,845 3,295,218 Hispanic 3,194,091 1,052,731 996,368 959,209 871,642 842,613 4,130,792 12,047,446 Other 373,909 145,968 132,642 126,854 131,515 144,567 771,004 1,826,459 Total 6,210,224 2,088,387 2,034,898 2,024,569 1,947,295 1,972,576 12,643,701 28,921,650

2025 White 1,966,351 623,263 647,136 661,951 692,619 720,734 6,528,211 11,840,265 African American 707,586 239,780 246,161 243,006 255,255 235,648 1,557,350 3,484,786 Hispanic 3,469,481 1,096,273 1,120,562 1,062,834 1,008,872 902,153 4,860,765 13,520,940 Other 357,454 170,818 162,720 149,350 143,046 147,286 928,527 2,059,201 Total 6,500,872 2,130,134 2,176,579 2,117,141 2,099,792 2,005,821 13,874,853 30,905,192

Enrollment Rate Alternatives

The five-year (2009-2013) in-state enrollment database and the population database were used to obtain enrollment rates for each of the four racial/ethnic groups (white, Hispanic, African American, and other) by county and age groups for each institution. Three alternative rates were calculated as follows:

(1) 2013 Racial/Ethnic Rate: The total number of students in a specific age/racial/ethnic group from each county attending each institution in 2013 divided by the total number of people of the specific age/racial/ethnic group living in the county.

(2) & (3) Trend Racial/Ethnic Rates: Using five years of observed enrollment data, two straight-line arithmetic trend enrollment levels were developed by age/racial/ethnic groups and county for each institution. These were: the 2009- 2013 five-year trend extended to 2014; and the five-year trend extended to 2015. The equation Yc = a + bx was used, where:

a is the mean enrollment over the five-year period;

b is the deviation from the center year (2011) multiplied by the observed enrollment, summed and divided by the sum of the squares of the deviations; and

x = 2 for the five-year trend extended to 2014, 3 for the five-year trend extended to 2015.

The predicted trend enrollment (Yc) for each age/racial/ethnic group was divided by the total number of people of the specific age/racial/ethnic group living in the county for the corresponding year.

Each of these three alternative enrollment rates contained attendance rates for each of the 254 counties at each institution by six age groups (15 to 19, 20 to 24, 25 to 29, 30 to 34, 35 to 39, and 40 and above) for four racial/ethnic groups (white, Hispanic, African American, and other).

In-State Enrollment Forecast Alternatives for 2014

Computed enrollment rates for each county were multiplied by the corresponding age/racial/ethnic/county population projections for 2014. This produced three alternative forecasts of students by age/racial/ethnicity from each county expected to attend each institution in 2014. Age groups were then summed to obtain statewide forecasts of white, Hispanic, African American, and other students at each institution in 2014. Total in-state enrollment for each of the three alternatives was obtained by summing the racial/ethnic enrollment.

The three alternative in-state enrollment levels for each institution are shown in Tables 13 and 14.

Table 13 In-State Enrollment Alternative Forecasts—Public Universities

2013 2014 2015 2014 (Trend) (Trend) (Trend) Prelim Rate Rate Rate

Angelo State University 6,098 6,158 6,429 6,448 Lamar University 13,152 12,805 13,011 13,015 Midwestern State University 4,926 4,982 5,003 4,945 Prairie View A&M University 7,945 7,551 7,493 7,343 Sam Houston State University 18,780 18,647 18,322 18,739 Stephen F. Austin State University 12,338 12,358 12,399 12,383 Sul Ross State University 1,822 1,839 1,878 1,893 Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College 995 993 967 937 Tarleton State University 11,377 10,777 10,699 11,240 Texas A&M International University 7,423 7,245 7,143 7,249 Texas A&M University 48,439 46,293 44,977 45,548 Texas A&M University at Galveston 1,895 1,861 1,901 1,997 Texas A&M University-Central Texas 2,133 2,160 2,135 2,179 Texas A&M University-Commerce 11,175 10,617 11,228 11,604 Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi 10,289 10,150 10,075 10,336 Texas A&M University-Kingsville 6,960 6,901 6,991 7,313 Texas A&M University-San Antonio 4,471 4,545 4,592 5,051 Texas A&M University-Texarkana 1,372 1,360 1,464 1,520 Texas Southern University 7,882 7,627 7,954 7,861 Texas State University - San Marcos 35,547 35,092 34,872 35,622 Texas Tech University 30,752 29,224 29,450 30,358 Texas Woman's University 14,313 14,489 14,637 14,956 The University of Texas at Arlington 30,580 30,635 31,530 32,318 The University of Texas at Austin 40,830 42,008 41,582 41,409 The University of Texas at Brownsville 7,802 8,352 8,382 8,657 The University of Texas at Dallas 16,612 15,763 15,606 16,031 The University of Texas at El Paso 20,110 20,487 20,315 20,483 The University of Texas at San Antonio 27,218 26,814 27,380 26,830 The University of Texas at Tyler 7,435 7,009 6,910 7,141 The University of Texas of the Permian Basin 5,351 4,870 4,684 5,016 The University of Texas-Pan American 20,353 20,020 19,341 19,249 University of Houston 35,703 35,295 35,815 35,887 University of Houston-Clear Lake 7,281 7,190 7,191 7,296 University of Houston-Downtown 14,013 13,498 13,479 13,661 University of Houston-Victoria 4,182 4,280 4,331 4,483 University of North Texas 33,128 33,631 33,166 32,923 University of North Texas at Dallas 2,522 2,136 2,130 2,176 UNT at Dallas Law School 151 NA NA NA West Texas A&M University 7,530 7,387 7,256 7,345

Table 14 In-State Enrollment Alternative Forecasts—Public Two-Year Colleges

2013 2014 2015 2014 (Trend) (Trend) (Trend) Prelim Rate Rate Rate

ACCD - Northeast Lakeview College 2,051 1,251 1,205 1,284 ACCD - Northwest Vista College 15,439 15,832 15,996 16,092 ACCD - Palo Alto College 8,069 8,445 8,637 8,518 ACCD - San Antonio College 20,731 22,448 22,605 21,983 ACCD - St. Philip's College 10,257 10,045 10,006 9,742 Alvin Community College 4,763 4,909 4,929 4,798 Amarillo College 10,184 10,664 10,968 10,852 Angelina College 5,167 5,438 5,509 5,475 Austin Community College 35,429 36,898 37,585 37,138 Blinn College 17,849 17,927 17,917 18,118 Brazosport College 4,133 4,149 4,157 4,112 Central Texas College District 8,440 8,604 8,572 8,111 Cisco College 3,484 3,551 3,755 3,598 Clarendon College 1,129 1,113 1,231 1,205 Coastal Bend College 3,760 3,445 3,545 3,347 College of the Mainland Community College District 3,886 4,226 4,185 4,169 Collin County Community College District 25,906 26,493 25,795 25,551 DCCCD - Brookhaven College 8,881 9,118 9,457 9,291 DCCCD - Cedar Valley College 5,852 5,550 5,754 5,755 DCCCD - Eastfield College 12,485 12,487 12,919 13,471 DCCCD - El Centro College 9,153 9,242 9,981 9,983 DCCCD - Mountain View College 7,831 7,585 7,938 7,959 DCCCD - North Lake College 8,528 8,954 9,391 9,309 DCCCD - Richland College 14,480 14,836 15,571 15,677 Del Mar College 9,665 10,253 10,437 9,936 El Paso Community College District 25,924 26,793 26,350 25,693 Frank Phillips College 1,290 1,113 1,160 1,172 Galveston College 1,947 2,041 2,122 2,093 Grayson County College 4,418 4,586 4,635 4,595 Hill College 3,938 4,369 4,397 4,400 Houston Community College System 42,985 44,294 46,097 46,539 Howard College 3,687 3,880 4,200 4,188 Kilgore College 5,651 5,734 5,934 5,807 Lamar Institute of Technology 2,852 2,921 2,876 2,809 Lamar State College-Orange 2,020 2,158 2,333 2,393 Lamar State College-Port Arthur 2,037 2,271 2,322 2,321 Laredo Community College 8,154 8,639 8,849 8,479 Lee College 6,276 5,788 5,767 5,540 Lone Star College System Cy-Fair College 17,914 17,375 17,830 18,492 Lone Star College System Kingwood College 11,643 10,752 11,061 11,590 Lone Star College System Montgomery College 11,521 11,099 11,380 11,445 Lone Star College System North Harris College 15,230 14,933 16,190 16,812

2013 2014 2015 2014 (Trend) (Trend) (Trend) Prelim Rate Rate Rate Lone Star College System Tomball College 7,504 7,350 8,020 7,376 Lone Star College System University Park 7,865 6,407 9,203 10,905 McLennan Community College 8,036 8,351 8,881 8,708 Midland College 4,929 5,092 5,302 5,094 Navarro College 9,544 9,914 10,021 10,125 North Central Texas Community College District 9,879 10,240 10,261 10,381 Northeast Texas Community College 3,093 3,179 3,318 3,373 Odessa College 4,793 4,764 4,847 4,769 Panola College 2,383 2,493 2,553 2,689 Paris Junior College 5,026 5,192 5,371 5,251 Ranger College 1,897 1,826 2,092 2,314 San Jacinto College Central Campus 13,393 14,074 13,907 13,376 San Jacinto College North Campus 7,260 7,182 7,133 7,175 San Jacinto College South Campus 10,431 10,277 10,054 9,726 South Plains College 9,433 9,172 9,348 9,243 South Texas College 30,810 30,303 30,200 30,246 Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf 102 108 160 172 Southwest Texas Junior College 5,502 5,403 5,588 5,439 TCCD - Northeast Campus 11,728 14,653 14,015 13,538 TCCD - Northwest Campus 8,501 11,738 11,498 11,410 TCCD - South Campus 8,235 11,368 10,891 10,648 TCCD - Southeast Campus 10,644 13,744 13,440 13,463 TCCD - Trinity River Campus 16,242 7,614 7,478 8,314 Temple College 5,727 5,501 5,287 5,018 Texarkana College 3,385 3,187 3,205 3,107 Texas Southmost College 3,824 3,688 4,114 1,939 Trinity Valley Community College 6,642 6,849 6,979 6,813 TSTC Harlingen Campus 5,406 5,341 5,234 4,900 TSTC Marshall Campus 843 725 774 733 TSTC Waco Campus 4,062 3,905 3,677 3,226 TSTC West Texas Campus 1,487 1,248 973 843 Tyler Junior College 9,557 9,407 9,604 9,160 Vernon College 2,872 2,960 3,050 3,061 Victoria College 4,108 4,352 4,397 4,370 Weatherford College 5,470 5,622 5,578 5,535 Western Texas College 1,934 1,839 1,990 1,942 Wharton County Junior College 7,005 7,578 7,497 7,485

In-State Enrollment “Best Fit” Rate Selection

The next step was to select for each institution one of the three in-state enrollment rate alternatives. The following criteria were used:

1. The enrollment forecast produced for 2014, when compared with the certified/preliminary 2014 enrollment and the five-year trend, must be the one that most closely follows the general trend of the historical enrollment pattern. If the historical enrollment pattern is increasing, the selected alternative should show an increase. If the pattern is decreasing, the selected alternative should show a decrease. If the pattern is stable, the nearest alternative to the certified/preliminary 2014 enrollment is selected.

2. If the historical pattern is increasing or decreasing, the 2014 enrollment produced by the selected alternative must fall within +3 percent of the certified/preliminary 2014 enrollment. If the historical pattern is stable, the 2014 enrollment produced by the selected alternative must fall within +1 percent of the certified/preliminary 2014 enrollment. If necessary, a multiplier can be computed to satisfy this condition.

The selected “best fit” alternative (see Tables 15 and 16) determined which rate to use for each institution in forecasting 2014 - 2016, 2020, and 2025 enrollment. The multiplier, if needed, was used to augment the forecast for each year.

Table 15 In-State Enrollment—Public Universities Comparison of Preliminary to Forecast In-State Enrollment for 2014

2014 Prelim "Best Fit" In-State In-State Selected Enrollment Enrollment Rate

Angelo State University 6,098 6,158 2013 Lamar University 13,152 13,015 2015 Midwestern State University 4,926 4,945 2015 Prairie View A&M University 7,945 7,551 2013 Sam Houston State University 18,780 18,739 2015 Stephen F. Austin State University 12,338 12,358 2013 Sul Ross State University 1,822 1,839 2013 Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College 995 993 2013 Tarleton State University 11,377 11,240 2015 Texas A&M International University 7,423 7,249 2015 Texas A&M University 48,439 46,293 2013 Texas A&M University at Galveston 1,895 1,901 2014 Texas A&M University-Central Texas 2,133 2,135 2014 Texas A&M University-Commerce 11,175 11,228 2014 Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi 10,289 10,336 2015 Texas A&M University-Kingsville 6,960 6,991 2014 Texas A&M University-San Antonio 4,471 4,545 2013 Texas A&M University-Texarkana 1,372 1,360 2013 Texas Southern University 7,882 7,861 2015 Texas State University - San Marcos 35,547 35,622 2015 Texas Tech University 30,752 30,358 2015 Texas Woman's University 14,313 14,489 2013 The University of Texas at Arlington 30,580 30,635 2013 The University of Texas at Austin 40,830 41,409 2015 The University of Texas at Brownsville 7,802 8,352 2013 The University of Texas at Dallas 16,612 16,031 2015 The University of Texas at El Paso 20,110 20,315 2014 The University of Texas at San Antonio 27,218 27,380 2014 The University of Texas at Tyler 7,435 7,009 2015 The University of Texas of the Permian Basin 5,351 5,016 2015 The University of Texas-Pan American 20,353 20,020 2013 University of Houston 35,703 35,815 2014 University of Houston-Clear Lake 7,281 7,190 2015 University of Houston-Downtown 14,013 13,661 2015 University of Houston-Victoria 4,182 4,280 2013 University of North Texas 33,128 33,166 2014 University of North Texas at Dallas 2,522 2,176 2015 UNT at Dallas Law School 151 NA NA West Texas A&M University 7,530 7,387 2013

Table 16 In-State Enrollment—Public Two-Year Colleges Comparison of Preliminary to Forecast In-State Enrollment for 2014

2014 Prelim "Best Fit" In-State In-State Selected Enrollment Enrollment Rate

ACCD - Northeast Lakeview College 2,051 1,284 2015 ACCD - Northwest Vista College 15,439 15,832 2013 ACCD - Palo Alto College 8,069 8,445 2013 ACCD - San Antonio College 20,731 21,983 2015 ACCD - St. Philip's College 10,257 10,045 2013 Alvin Community College 4,763 4,798 2015 Amarillo College 10,184 10,664 2013 Angelina College 5,167 5,438 2013 Austin Community College 35,429 36,898 2013 Blinn College 17,849 17,917 2014 Brazosport College 4,133 4,112 2015 Central Texas College District 8,440 8,604 2013 Cisco College 3,484 3,551 2013 Clarendon College 1,129 1,113 2013 Coastal Bend College 3,760 3,545 2014 College of the Mainland Community College District 3,886 4,169 2015 Collin County Community College District 25,906 25,795 2014 DCCCD - Brookhaven College 8,881 9,118 2013 DCCCD - Cedar Valley College 5,852 5,755 2014 DCCCD - Eastfield College 12,485 12,487 2013 DCCCD - El Centro College 9,153 9,242 2013 DCCCD - Mountain View College 7,831 7,938 2014 DCCCD - North Lake College 8,528 8,954 2013 DCCCD - Richland College 14,480 14,836 2013 Del Mar College 9,665 9,936 2015 El Paso Community College District 25,924 26,350 2014 Frank Phillips College 1,290 1,172 2015 Galveston College 1,947 2,041 2013 Grayson County College 4,418 4,586 2013 Hill College 3,938 4,369 2013 Houston Community College System 42,985 44,294 2013 Howard College 3,687 3,880 2013 Kilgore College 5,651 5,734 2013 Lamar Institute of Technology 2,852 2,809 2015 Lamar State College-Orange 2,020 2,158 2013 Lamar State College-Port Arthur 2,037 2,271 2013 Laredo Community College 8,154 8,479 2015 Lee College 6,276 5,788 2013 Lone Star College System Cy-Fair College 17,914 17,830 2014 Lone Star College System Kingwood College 11,643 11,590 2015 Lone Star College System Montgomery College 11,521 11,445 2015 Lone Star College System North Harris College 15,230 14,933 2013

2014 Prelim "Best Fit" In-State In-State Selected Enrollment Enrollment Rate Lone Star College System Tomball College 7,504 7,376 2015 Lone Star College System University Park 7,865 6,407 2013 McLennan Community College 8,036 8,351 2013 Midland College 4,929 5,092 2013 Navarro College 9,544 9,914 2013 North Central Texas Community College District 9,879 10,240 2013 Northeast Texas Community College 3,093 3,179 2013 Odessa College 4,793 4,769 2015 Panola College 2,383 2,493 2013 Paris Junior College 5,026 5,192 2013 Ranger College 1,897 1,826 2013 San Jacinto College Central Campus 13,393 13,376 2015 San Jacinto College North Campus 7,260 7,175 2015 San Jacinto College South Campus 10,431 10,277 2013 South Plains College 9,433 9,348 2014 South Texas College 30,810 30,303 2013 Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf 102 108 2013 Southwest Texas Junior College 5,502 5,588 2014 TCCD - Northeast Campus 11,728 13,538 2015 TCCD - Northwest Campus 8,501 11,410 2015 TCCD - South Campus 8,235 10,648 2015 TCCD - Southeast Campus 10,644 13,440 2014 TCCD - Trinity River Campus 16,242 8,314 2015 Temple College 5,727 5,501 2013 Texarkana College 3,385 3,205 2014 Texas Southmost College 3,824 3,688 2013 Trinity Valley Community College 6,642 6,813 2015 TSTC Harlingen Campus 5,406 5,341 2013 TSTC Marshall Campus 843 774 2014 TSTC Waco Campus 4,062 3,905 2013 TSTC West Texas Campus 1,487 1,248 2013 Tyler Junior College 9,557 9,407 2013 Vernon College 2,872 2,960 2013 Victoria College 4,108 4,352 2013 Weatherford College 5,470 5,535 2015 Western Texas College 1,934 1,942 2015 Wharton County Junior College 7,005 7,485 2015

In-State Enrollment Forecast

The selected “best fit” enrollment rate alternative for each institution and for each racial/ethnic group was applied to the corresponding age/racial/ethnic group projected population for 2014 - 2016, 2020, and 2025 by county. Age groups were summed for each year, by racial/ethnic group, to provide county total enrollment for white, Hispanic, African American, and other students at each institution for each of the forecast years. County enrollment levels were summed by institution and year to provide total white, Hispanic, African American, and other student forecasts for each institution. Finally, the racial/ethnic enrollment levels for each institution were summed to produce total in-state enrollment. Multipliers were applied to some institutions’ in-state enrollment to meet the criteria described above, if needed.

Nonresident Enrollment Ratios

In fall 2014 enrollment reports, the percent of out-of-state students varied from .9 percent to 39 percent at public universities and from less than 1 percent to over 26 percent at public two-year colleges. Therefore, it was necessary to determine a means of accounting for expected nonresident students in each institution. This was done by selecting a representative “nonresidential factor” for each institution, based on historical data from 2009 to 2013. The ratios of nonresident to in-state enrollment were compared with the actual/preliminary 2014 nonresident to in-state ratios for each institution. The selected ratio became a factor used in the forecast process to determine nonresident enrollment forecasts for each institution. (See Tables 17 and 18.)

Table 17 Nonresident Enrollment Ratios—Public Universities

Prelim Average 2014 Selected

Angelo State University 0.044 0.068 0.044 Lamar University 0.076 0.099 0.099 Midwestern State University 0.128 0.192 0.128 Prairie View A&M University 0.097 0.092 0.092 Sam Houston State University 0.038 0.042 0.048 Stephen F. Austin State University 0.030 0.038 0.030 Sul Ross State University 0.038 0.065 0.038 Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College 0.009 0.014 0.009 Tarleton State University 0.032 0.027 0.032 Texas A&M International University 0.040 0.038 0.038 Texas A&M University 0.164 0.169 0.164 Texas A&M University at Galveston 0.168 0.220 0.168 Texas A&M University-Central Texas 0.132 0.118 0.132 Texas A&M University-Commerce 0.056 0.103 0.056 Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi 0.087 0.094 0.087 Texas A&M University-Kingsville 0.116 0.254 0.254 Texas A&M University-San Antonio 0.008 0.011 0.008 Texas A&M University-Texarkana 0.366 0.321 0.360 Texas Southern University 0.170 0.182 0.170 Texas State University - San Marcos 0.024 0.035 0.024 Texas Tech University 0.162 0.144 0.144 Texas Woman's University 0.044 0.043 0.043 The University of Texas at Arlington 0.098 0.140 0.098 The University of Texas at Austin 0.249 0.257 0.257 The University of Texas at Brownsville 0.053 0.057 0.057 The University of Texas at Dallas 0.310 0.390 0.390 The University of Texas at El Paso 0.151 0.148 0.148 The University of Texas at San Antonio 0.074 0.052 0.074 The University of Texas at Tyler 0.046 0.082 0.082 The University of Texas of the Permian Basin 0.036 0.041 0.036 The University of Texas-Pan American 0.035 0.033 0.033 University of Houston 0.126 0.146 0.126 University of Houston-Clear Lake 0.170 0.190 0.190 University of Houston-Downtown 0.033 0.030 0.033 University of Houston-Victoria 0.066 0.054 0.066 University of North Texas 0.085 0.092 0.085 University of North Texas at Dallas 0.017 0.024 0.017 UNT at Dallas Law School 0.000 0.013 0.013 West Texas A&M University 0.131 0.131 0.192

Table 18 Nonresident Enrollment Ratios—Public Two-Year Colleges

Actual Average 2014 Selected

ACCD - Northeast Lakeview College 0.015 0.022 0.015 ACCD - Northwest Vista College 0.018 0.023 0.023 ACCD - Palo Alto College 0.010 0.021 0.010 ACCD - San Antonio College 0.029 0.030 0.030 ACCD - St. Philip's College 0.034 0.042 0.034 Alvin Community College 0.023 0.032 0.023 Amarillo College 0.008 0.006 0.008 Angelina College 0.013 0.008 0.013 Austin Community College 0.068 0.070 0.068 Blinn College 0.019 0.068 0.019 Brazosport College 0.007 0.005 0.007 Central Texas College District 0.261 0.263 0.261 Cisco College 0.020 0.023 0.020 Clarendon College 0.055 0.073 0.073 Coastal Bend College 0.005 0.016 0.005 College of the Mainland Community College District 0.001 0.002 0.002 Collin County Community College District 0.087 0.084 0.084 DCCCD - Brookhaven College 0.105 0.099 0.100 DCCCD - Cedar Valley College 0.025 0.028 0.025 DCCCD - Eastfield College 0.016 0.020 0.016 DCCCD - El Centro College 0.034 0.035 0.034 DCCCD - Mountain View College 0.033 0.032 0.032 DCCCD - North Lake College 0.104 0.080 0.082 DCCCD - Richland College 0.103 0.116 0.103 Del Mar College 0.026 0.062 0.026 El Paso Community College District 0.062 0.055 0.055 Frank Phillips College 0.056 0.043 0.043 Galveston College 0.053 0.052 0.053 Grayson County College 0.069 0.073 0.069 Hill College 0.022 0.022 0.022 Houston Community College System 0.093 0.104 0.093 Howard College 0.025 0.024 0.025 Kilgore College 0.025 0.022 0.022 Lamar Institute of Technology 0.014 0.016 0.014 Lamar State College-Orange 0.159 0.129 0.129 Lamar State College-Port Arthur 0.016 0.019 0.016 Laredo Community College 0.030 0.030 0.030 Lee College 0.022 0.056 0.022 Lone Star College System Cy-Fair College 0.054 0.043 0.054 Lone Star College System Kingwood College 0.031 0.033 0.031 Lone Star College System Montgomery College 0.048 0.044 0.044 Lone Star College System North Harris College 0.059 0.039 0.059 Lone Star College System Tomball College 0.035 0.032 0.032 Lone Star College System University Park 0.018 0.047 0.047

Actual Average 2014 Selected McLennan Community College 0.027 0.032 0.027 Midland College 0.031 0.036 0.031 Navarro College 0.030 0.028 0.028 North Central Texas Community College District 0.018 0.120 0.018 Northeast Texas Community College 0.025 0.033 0.025 Odessa College 0.037 0.048 0.037 Panola College 0.101 0.076 0.089 Paris Junior College 0.033 0.048 0.033 Ranger College 0.047 0.062 0.047 San Jacinto College Central Campus 0.035 0.028 0.028 San Jacinto College North Campus 0.034 0.034 0.033 San Jacinto College South Campus 0.060 0.044 0.043 South Plains College 0.046 0.023 0.046 South Texas College 0.000 0.001 0.001 Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf 0.376 0.422 0.417 Southwest Texas Junior College 0.009 0.013 0.009 TCCD - Northeast Campus 0.032 0.048 0.032 TCCD - Northwest Campus 0.027 0.041 0.027 TCCD - South Campus 0.030 0.054 0.030 TCCD - Southeast Campus 0.045 0.061 0.045 TCCD - Trinity River Campus 0.033 0.048 0.048 Temple College 0.014 0.010 0.010 Texarkana College 0.273 0.204 0.273 Texas Southmost College 0.025 0.019 0.015 Trinity Valley Community College 0.018 0.017 0.019 TSTC Harlingen Campus 0.007 0.002 0.007 TSTC Marshall Campus 0.026 0.030 0.030 TSTC Waco Campus 0.022 0.005 0.022 TSTC West Texas Campus 0.013 0.003 0.013 Tyler Junior College 0.027 0.029 0.027 Vernon College 0.047 0.041 0.041 Victoria College 0.010 0.004 0.002 Weatherford College 0.026 0.026 0.026 Western Texas College 0.059 0.070 0.066 Wharton County Junior College 0.002 0.031 0.002

Draft Total Enrollment Forecast and Adjustments

At this point in the Forecast process, total in-state enrollment forecasts for 2014 - 2016, 2020, and 2025 plus a nonresident factor, had been calculated for each institution. Multiplying the selected nonresident factor by the in-state enrollment produced nonresident enrollment by institution and year. Nonresident and in-state enrollment levels were added to produce a base total enrollment forecast for each institution for 2014 - 2016, 2020, and 2025. The selected alternative used to forecast in-state enrollment and the factor which produced nonresident enrollment were controlled by quantifiable historical enrollment patterns and expected demographic changes. Consequently, the enrollment forecasts which they produced did not take into account future changes in the status of institutions or internal, non-quantifiable conditions which could influence enrollment at a specific college or university. These were addressed, to some degree, by making adjustments to institutional draft forecasts as appropriate:

 Some public universities have, or intend to establish, policies that will cap enrollment at specific levels. For these institutions, the model might possibly forecast an excess number of students. In cases where this occurred, the excess was subtracted and redistributed to other institutions.  Other institutions have responded with limitations on capacity, new programs, or other institution-specific items for adjustment. Table 19 itemizes the institutional adjustments used to modify the Enrollment Forecasts.

Table 19 Adjustments to Draft Enrollment Forecasts Based on Local Conditions

Instname 2015 2016 2020 2025 ACCD - Palo Alto College 274 274 274 274 Blinn College 970 1,403 3,572 6,685 Lone Star College System Cy-Fair College 190 191 198 209 Lone Star College System Kingwood College 121 122 125 130 Lone Star College System Montgomery College 122 125 134 144 Lone Star College System North Harris College 160 162 168 178 Lone Star College System Tomball College 77 77 79 82 Lone Star College System University Park 242 248 254 256 Prairie View A&M University -334 -307 6 240 Texas A&M University 2,507 4,893 8,074 9,893 University of Houston-Downtown 604 902 2,084 3,784

Enrollment Forecast for Texas Independent Colleges and Universities

Forecasts of total enrollment at the independent colleges and universities (two-year and four-year) were computed by first deriving a linear regression equation of independent institutions’ total fall enrollment as a function of public universities’ total fall enrollment for five years (2009-2013). The data for deriving the equation are displayed in Table 20.

Table 20 Enrollment at Public Universities and Independent Institutions

Public Independent Universities Institutions

2009 532,226 120,011 2010 557,550 122,894 2011 568,938 123,690 2012 576,938 124,135 2013 584,785 123,749

Forecasts of enrollment at independent institutions for 2014 - 2016, 2020, and 2025 were then derived by entering forecasted enrollment at public universities for those years in the regression equation. The regression forecast for 2014 was adjusted by a multiplier to account for past error. The forecasts are shown in Table 21.

Table 21 Enrollment Forecasts for Public Universities and Independent Institutions Independent Senior Public University College and University Year 2015 616,262 126,925 2016 626,838 127,742 2020 658,569 130,193 2025 694,624 132,978

Related reports available from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, Division of Strategic Planning and Funding:

Closing the Gaps by 2015, adopted 2000, revised October 2005 http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/reports/PDF/0379.PDF and http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/reports/PDF/1176.PDF

Closing the Gaps by 2015: Annual Progress Reports http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/ClosingtheGaps/

2014 Regional Plan for Texas Higher Education, November 2014 http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/Reports/PDF/6079.PDF

This document is available on the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Website: http://www.thecb.state.tx.us

For more information contact:

Julie Eklund, Director of Planning and Performance Planning and Accountability Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board P.O. Box 12788 Austin, TX 78752 (512) 427-6 533 (512) 427-6147 (Fax) [email protected]