Participation Forecast

Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 Texas Institutions of Higher Education January 2015 Strategic Planning and Funding Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Harold W. Hahn, CHAIR El Paso Robert W. Jenkins, VICE CHAIR Austin David D. Teuscher, M.D., SECRETARY OF THE BOARD Beaumont Gerald “Jerry” Korty, STUDENT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BOARD Fort Worth Dora G. Alcala Del Rio Ambassador Sada Cumber Sugarland Fred Farias, III O.D. McAllen Janelle Shepard Weatherford John T. Steen, Jr. San Antonio Raymund A. Paredes, COMMISSIONER OF HIGHER EDUCATION Mission, Vision, Philosophy, and Core Values Agency Mission The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board promotes access, affordability, quality, success, and cost efficiency in the state’s institutions of higher education, through Closing the Gaps and its successor plan, resulting in a globally competent workforce that positions Texas as an international leader in an increasingly complex world economy. Agency Vision The THECB will be recognized as an international leader in developing and implementing innovative higher education policy to accomplish our mission. Agency Philosophy The THECB will promote access to and success in quality higher education across the state with the conviction that access and success without quality is mediocrity and that quality without access and success is unacceptable. The Coordinating Board’s core values are: Accountability: We hold ourselves responsible for our actions and welcome every opportunity to educate stakeholders about our policies, decisions, and aspirations. Efficiency: We accomplish our work using resources in the most effective manner. Collaboration: We develop partnerships that result in student success and a highly qualified, globally competent workforce. Excellence: We strive for preeminence in all our endeavors. The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age or disability in employment or the provision of services. Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 Table of Contents Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 for Texas Colleges and Universities .....................1 Texas Public College and University Enrollment Forecast Methodology ............... 23 Enrollment Forecast for Texas Independent Colleges and Universities ............... 42 List of Tables Table 1: Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts – Texas Institutions of Higher Education ............................................................................ 4 Table 2: Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment ................................... 4 Table 3: Enrollment Projections by Region – Texas Public Institutions of Higher Education ........................................................... 6 Table 4: Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts – Public Universities....................... 12 Table 5: Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment – Public Universities ...................................................................................... 14 Table 6: Fall Headcount Enrollment Forecasts – Public Two-Year Colleges ............ 16 Table 7: Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Enrollment – Public Two-Year Colleges .................................................................. 19 Table 8 Fall In-State Enrollment by Age and Race/Ethnicity – Public Universities ............................................................................ 25 Table 9: Fall In-State and Nonresident Enrollment for Public Universities .............. 25 Table 10: Fall In-State Enrollment by Age and Race/Ethnicity – Public Two-Year Colleges .................................................................. 26 Table 11: Fall In-State and Nonresident Enrollment for Public Two-Year Colleges .................................................................. 26 Table 12: Texas Statewide Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity .......................... 28 Table 13: In-State Enrollment Alternative Forecasts – Public Universities ................ 30 Table 14: In-State Enrollment Alternative Forecasts – Public Two-Year Colleges...... 31 Table 15: In-State Enrollment – Public Universities Comparison of Preliminary to Forecast In-State Enrollment for 2013 ................................................ 34 Table 16: In-State Enrollment – Public Two-Year Colleges Comparison of Preliminary to Forecast In-State Enrollment for 2013 ........................... 35 Table 17: Nonresident Enrollment Ratios – Public Universities ............................... 38 Table 18: Nonresident Enrollment Ratios – Public Two-Year Colleges ..................... 39 Table 19: Adjustments to Draft Enrollment Forecasts Based on Local Conditions ..... 41 Table 20: Enrollment at Public Universities and Independent Institutions ................ 42 Table 21: Enrollment Forecasts for Public Universities and Independent Institutions 42 i List of Figures Figure 1: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 10 Regions ........................ 5 Figure 2: Enrollment Forecast Development Process .......................................... 22 ii Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 for Texas Colleges and Universities Biennially since 1979, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board has calculated enrollment trends and expectations which are fundamental to higher education planning. In times of changing demographics like Texas is experiencing, these forecasts become even more critical as they inform the higher education community about anticipated Enrollment if current enrollment patterns continue. The Enrollment Forecast 2015-2025 is the 19th installment in the Coordinating Board’s series on this important topic. Enrollment Forecast Process The methodology used to produce the Enrollment Forecast has remained relatively unchanged since 1979. For public colleges and universities, it uses five years of past enrollment from Texas counties differentiated by age and race/ethnicity and applies these enrollment rates to population projections prepared by the Texas State Data Center. Forecasts for independent colleges and universities are derived using simple linear regression, also based on five years of past data. The methodology for both public and independent institutions does not consider possible future changes that could affect enrollments, such as improvements in high school graduation rates, increases in higher education enrollment by racial/ethnic groups, or changes in local policies. For that reason, the Forecast is conservative; it projects future enrollments if current trends continue. The five years used to determine this Forecast are fall 2009 through fall 2013. The growth rate at public and independent colleges and universities from fall 2009 through fall 2011 was 7.5 percent, whereas the rate from fall 2011 to fall 2013 was -1.2 percent. In this Forecast, the effect of the recent slowing in enrollment is moderated by the faster growth rate from 2009 to 2011 and exasperated by demographic changes. The Enrollment Forecast concludes that, if current patterns persist, Texas public and independent two-year and four-year institutions will grow from the 1.44 million enrollees in fall 2014 to 1.47 million in 2015 (or 500,000 students more than in 2000). However, this does not include enrollments in the health-related institutions and career colleges. To begin the process of planning and preparing for the years beyond 2015, this report also estimates enrollments through 2025, which are predicted to be 1.64 million. (See Tables 1 and 2.) The projections in this report are lower to comparable years from the January 2013 Forecast. The 1.47 million enrollments projected for 2015 are about 25 thousand lower than projected in 2013, and the 1.56 million students for 2020 is 16,000 less than the earlier 1.58 million estimate. That is because of the declining enrollment over the prior two years. For public universities, fall 2014 enrollment totaled 604,000 students, or 119,000 more students than in fall 2005. For the five-year period from 2010 to 2015, enrollments are 1 projected to grow by 10.5 percent to 616,000 students, by 6.9 percent to reach 659,000 students in 2020, and then by 5.5 percent to reach 695,000 by 2025. Texas public two-year colleges have generally grown more rapidly than universities since the mid-1960s and are expected to continue to have more students than universities despite the declines between 2011-2014. Public colleges’ enrollment for fall 2014 totaled 716,000 students, an increase of about 150,000 students (26.6 percent) over fall 2005 enrollment. This Enrollment Forecast estimates their enrollment will decline by -2.0 percent from 2010 to 2015 because of the decline in the most recent three years. The colleges’ pace of growth is anticipated to jump to 6.5 percent from 2015 to 2020. As a result of these increases, Texas public two-year colleges are expected to enroll about 775,000 students in 2020 and 816,000 in 2025. About 124,000 students enrolled in Texas’ independent colleges and universities in fall 2014. Their enrollments are forecast to grow to 127,000 in 2015, 130,000 in 2020, and 132,000 in 2025. No enrollment projections are made for health-related institutions because their enrollments are more closely tied to state policies than to state population changes. Important Considerations The following points should be remembered when reviewing this Forecast: The Texas State Data Center (TSDC) periodically updates its population projections and reconsiders the migration scenario that should be used for long- term projections. This Forecast continued

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