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Sinotrans Limited: Sinotrans – Negatives in the Price; Valuation

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Sinotrans Limited: Sinotrans – Negatives in the Price; Valuation Sinotrans Limited | February 23, 2016 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH February 23, 2016 MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Edward H Xu, CFA Sinotrans Limited [email protected] +852 2239-1521 Watson Lau Sinotrans – Negatives In The Price; [email protected] +852 2239-1523 Victoria Wong, CFA Valuation Support From Sinoair [email protected] +852 2239-7817 Yufei Wu Industry View Stock Rating Price Target [email protected] +852 2239-7505 In-Line Overweight HK$5.11 Sinotrans Limited ( 0598.HK, 598 HK ) While we lower our earnings expectations amid sustained macro Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure / China headwinds, we think the negatives have been priced in by a Stock Rating Overweight Industry View In-Line significant stock correction in the last 3 months. We expect valuation Price target HK$5.11 support from a potential re-rating of Sinoair, which we are Up/downside to price target (%) 59 Shr price, close (Feb 22, 2016) HK$3.21 upgrading to OW. 52-Week Range HK$6.65-2.68 Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 4,406 What's Changed? From: To: Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb11,862 EV, curr (mn) Rmb14,276 Sinotrans Limited Avg daily trading value (mn) HK$75 Price Target HK$7.99 HK$5.11 2015e Net Profit Rmb1,606m Rmb1,460m Fiscal Year Ending 12/14 12/15e 12/16e 12/17e 2016e Net Profit Rmb1,721m Rmb1,423m ModelWare EPS (Rmb) 0.26 0.33 0.34 0.39 2017e Net Profit Rmb1,927m Rmb1,735m Consensus EPS (Rmb)§ 0.28 0.31 0.34 0.38 Revenue, net (Rmb 45,863 45,567 45,285 46,892 What has caused the dip: We think the -33% stock performance in the past mn) EBITDA (Rmb mn) 2,604 3,249 3,287 3,574 52 weeks has fully reflected market disappointment caused by: 1) weaker- ModelWare net inc 1,150 1,454 1,518 1,716 than-expected organic business led by a macro downturn; 2) delay in asset (Rmb mn) injections without clarity; and 3) a lack of management incentives with delays P/E 15.8 10.6 7.8 6.9 P/BV 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 in SOE reform. Thus 2015 earnings will miss management’s original guidance RNOA (%) 12.3 12.9 12.6 14.1 of 30% growth. As our revised earnings estimate still shows 18.6% growth in ROE (%) 10.0 10.8 10.5 11.0 2015, we think the share price correction is overdone. EV/EBITDA 8.1 5.3 3.8 3.2 Div yld (%) 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.7 FCF yld ratio (%) (4.1) 3.9 10.1 11.9 Potential catalysts: Despite macro challenges, we expect resilient 2016 Leverage (EOP) (%) (5.2) (10.5) (17.2) (23.2) earnings, led by: 1) potential disposal gain (Rmb109m) and cash inflows Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework § = Consensus data is provided by Thomson Reuters Estimates (Rmb143m) from the sale of InterBulk shares, for which Sinotrans had made e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates write-downs in 2013-14 (Rmb51m / Rmb111m); 2) progress made in the merger of the parent – CSC & Sinotrans Group with China Merchants Group, which may lead to asset injections; and 3) valuation support from Sinoair following the IPO boom of domestic express firms. Reducing earnings by 9%-11%: Our lower earnings estimates are based on: 1) weaker demand, as seen by continued declines in China’s export volumes in the past 11 months; 2) delays in the planned asset injection, partly due to the Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, merger of its parent. Our revised earnings are in-line with consensus investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict estimates. We still expect positive growth of 18.6%/4.9%/13.2% for 2015-17 of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan amid a difficult macro environment. Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their Valuation attractive: Based on our earnings estimates, the current share investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, price is implying low multiples of 7.9x 2016e P/E and 0.8x P/BV, near historical refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this lows since 2014. Even applying lower P/E multiples of 10x-12x from 12x-18x report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered w ith FINRA, may in our SOTP model, our PT of HK$5.11 still implies 57% upside, supporting our not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE OW rating. restrictions on communications w ith a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. 1 Sinotrans Limited | February 23, 2016 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH Sinotrans Limited: Financial Summary Exhibit 1: Sinotrans: Financial Summary 2013-2017E Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates 2 Sinotrans Limited | February 23, 2016 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH Risk-Reward Snapshot: Sinotrans (0598.HK, HK$3.26, OW, PT HK$5.11) Risk-Reward View: Stub Value Amid Macro Headwinds Investment Thesis Lower PT by 36% to HK$5.11, implying 57% upside potential, as we factor in: 1) weaker-than- expected organic business performance led by a macro downturn in general; 2) delay in asset injection without any further clarity; 3) delays in SOE reform. Sinotrans will benefit from an Rmb109mn estimated disposal gain and Rmb143.1mn cash inflows from the sale of InterBulk shares, potential asset injections and sustained low oil price. We believe the -33% share price correction in the past 12 months is overdone given positive earnings growth of 18.6%/4.9%/13.2% for 2015- 17. The currently depressed valuation is attractive at 7.9x 2016e P/E and 0.8x P/BV vs. 9.8% ROE. Price Target HK$5.11 Probability-weighted: bull case (20%), base case (75%), and bear case (5%). Sum-of-the-parts valuation using discounted P/E Key Value Drivers multiples to global peers. China’s foreign trade growth. Bull HK$7.02 Substantial valuation gains in logistics assets: Stronger-than- Domestic consumption and logistics demand. 16.8x 2016e base case P/E expected revenue growth (+10% YoY) led by recovery in both Operating margins of key business segments external and domestic demand in 2015-17e. Higher-than-expected including freight forwarding and express services. operating margin (+0.5% YoY) for all core businesses. Additional land appreciation potential for land assets valued at HK$11bn. Potential Catalysts Disposal gain and cash flow from sale of InterBulk Chinese exports growth remain relatively flat at -1.4 / 2.6 / - Base HK$4.82 shares 11.5x 2016e base case P/E 1.6% in 2015-17e. Forecast -1% / -1% / 4% revenue growth in 2015-17e with ROEs at ~10%. Potential asset injection as further progress is made in the merger of parent group Bear HK$1.81 Margins halve for all core operations: Worsening of China’s CSC&Sinotrans Group with China Merchants Group 4.3x 2016e base case P/E foreign trade growth hits revenue by 10% in 2015-17e. Sustained low oil price that would benefit international business such as DHL JV Key Downside Risks Prolonged cycle of weak external demand and domestic slowdown Sentiment impaired by further delay in asset injections and SOE reform Exogenous risks 3 Sinotrans Limited | February 23, 2016 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH Investment Thesis Sinotrans has underperformed the market (HSCEI) by 6% over the past 3 months by correcting 22%, mainly reflecting market disappointment with weaker earnings growth and the delay of asset injections. Although we are cutting our earnings by 9%-11% and PT by 36%, we find current valuation attractive as the shares are trading at 7.9x 2016e P/E, 45% below its historical mean. Exhibit 2: Sinotrans: Price performance vs. HSCEI and Sinoair Source: Thomson Reuters, Morgans Stanley Research While we think most negatives should already be in the price, we expect potential catalysts from the following: 1) Potential disposal gain (Rmb109m) and cash inflows (Rmb143m) from the sale of InterBulk shares, for which Sinotrans had made write-downs in 2013-14 (Rmb51m / Rmb111m); 2) Progress made in the merger of the parent – CSC & Sinotrans Group with China Merchants Group (CMG). According to the firm, it announced its parent, CSC &Sinotrans Group was preparing a strategic reorganization with China Merchants Group on Nov 11th, 2015. We think the merger could be the reason behind the delayed asset injection as originally scheduled. It is possible that other asset injections could be included following the parent merger with CMGAs. CMG has unlisted China Merchants Logistics. According to China Merchants Logistics, it made a profit of Rmb286mn in 2014 with revenues of Rmb6.74bn, implying 4.2% margin and 4.7% ROA. 4 Sinotrans Limited | February 23, 2016 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH 3) Valuation support to Sinoair from the IPO boom of domestic express firms. We expect 2016 to be the year of IPOs of private express firms in China. For example, on Oct 23, 2015, STO announced its plan to go public through a back-door listing, by acquiring the shares of Zhejiang IDC Fluid Control (002468.SZ; NR). After that on Jan 16, 2016 , YTO also announced its plan to go public through a back-door listing by acquiring Dalian Dayang Trands (600233.SS; NR). Exhibit 3: Summary of Listing Progress of the Express Companies in China Source: Company announcement, Sina, W SJ Case Study: How did KLN’s IPO affect Sinotrans’ share performance Kerry Logistics Network (KLN) announced the IPO plan in Hong Kong and the deal was completed in Dec 2013.
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