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RBC European Utils & Infra Morning Lightbulb

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RBC European Utils & Infra Morning Lightbulb RBC Global Equity Team Click here for contributing analysts' contact information September 28, 2020 RBC European Utils & Infra Morning Lightbulb • Naturgy: Time to turn positive • Acciona/Iberdrola: New projects in Spanish sola PV • German renewables up to 48% in the power mix YTD, demand down 5% • New report of concession revocation for Atlantia’s ASPI • Plans to scrap UK tax-free shopping EQUITY RESEARCH Naturgy: Time to turn positive Since May 2019, Naturgy has underperformed the European utilities (SX6P) by 45%, impacted by weak LNG profitability, falling gas demand and FX. We believe LNG profitability has already bottomed and expect a medium-term recovery, and Naturgy should benefit from a couple of swing factors (Opex improvement and gas demand recovery). (RBC Capital Markets) So what? Naturgy trades at 13.5x PE 2021E vs. 15.4x of the average European integrated utilities under our coverage. We could understand the discount in a situation of collapsing earnings, but we expect earnings recovery next year. For further details please see Naturgy - Time to turn positive. Acciona/Iberdrola: New projects in Spanish sola PV Acciona is starting to develop 300MW of a solar PV plant in Segovia (Spain), and it has 1GW of solar PV pipeline in Spain. The company is also working on a 420MW solar PV plant in Extremadura and another of 360MW in Soria. Iberdrola is close to starting works to build over 70MW of solar PV in Extremadura. It is working on the installation of a 150MW plant and another of c.0.6GW. (El Periodico de la Energia) So what? Despite the delays post-Covid lockdowns, it looks like solar PV development in Spain is going again at a good pace. German renewables up to 48% in the power mix YTD, demand down 5% German renewables covered almost 48% of power demand in the first three quarters of 2020, up five percentage points compared to the same period in 2019. Onshore wind output rose 7%, offshore wind 10% and solar generation was 13% higher versus January-September 2019. Electricity demand for the period was down 5.1% yoy, while total generation was 7.3% lower. Germany still requires progress to reach the current 65% renewables by 2030 energy target in place. Key risks to this target continue to be self-consumption, support for assets reaching the end of the 20-year support contracts, and compensation cuts during periods of negative power prices. Further, current grid operator expansion plans forecast largely flat demand until 2030 despite targets for 10 million electric vehicles, and electrification of heating and industry. (Platts, reNEWS) So what? While the near-50% renewables mix in the first nine months of 2020 is interesting, it shouldn’t be a surprise to investors, with continued renewables roll-out and the lower (Covid-19 related) demand both contributing to increased penetration. New report of concession revocation for Atlantia’s ASPI Reuters reported over the WE that Italy is ready to revoke motorway unit Autostrade per l’Italia’s concession if its parent company Atlantia fails to agree a deal over ASPI’s future by Wednesday, a government source familiar with the matter said on Sunday. So what? Atlantia notified last week that it was proceeding to the divestment as per the minister decree from mid-July: Given the discussions with CDP have not been successful in reaching a common valuation ground, they are going ahead with a dual track (private sale / separate listing), which were 2 out of 3 possible transaction structures listed in the decree. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). Disseminated: Sep 28, 2020 03:16ET; Produced: Sep 28, 2020 03:16ET All values in GBP unless otherwise noted. For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see page 8. RBC European Utils & Infra Morning Lightbulb Plans to scrap UK tax-free shopping The Guardian reported last week that the Treasury said the retail scheme, which enables non- EU visitors to reclaim VAT paid on their purchases, would finish at the end of December. So what? This is not good news for travel retail, in particular at LHR (5% of FER valuation), LGW (5% of DG valuation) and Luton Airport (low single-digit % of AENA valuation). Reports 28/09 - NTGY SM: Time to turn positive 25/09 - Pennon (Outperform) – Performance in line, further clarity on Viridor proceeds in November 25/09 - RBC SMID Focus 24/09 - JLG LN: Model update 23/09 - SMS (Outperform): positive read across from SSE’s MapleCo disposal 22/09 - SMS LN: Get Smart; initiate at Outperform, PT 850p/sh 22/09 - Navigating the Energy Transition 21/09 - RBC European Utilities - EDP & EDPR - Balancing growth vs farm downs 21/09 - EDP PL: Supported by renewables valuation 21/09 - EDPR PL: Renewed capacity growth prospects with asset sales September 28, 2020 2 RBC European Utils & Infra Morning Lightbulb European Utilities and Infra Comp. Sheet Priced as of 25 Sep 2020 EV/EBITDA P/E FCF Yield (Post-Capex) Dividend Yield COMPANY Price Rating Target Upside** % 52w high Mkt Cap (m) EV 2019E (m) 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E INTEGRATED CENTRICA 40p UP 33p (17.6%) 42% £2,330 £7,119 3.0x 4.1x 3.6x 3.0x 5.5x 9.3x 6.5x 4.8x 9.7% -31.5% 17.0% 30.3% 3.7% 6.2% 8.7% 11.2% SSE * 1,190p SP 1,400p 17.6% 70% £12,657 £23,598 12.3x 12.5x 11.6x 11.9x 14.2x 16.8x 14.8x 13.9x 2.2% 1.5% 4.2% -8.5% 6.7% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% E.ON € 9.28 SP € 10.50 13.1% 80% € 24,517 € 70,653 12.4x 10.3x 9.9x 9.6x 15.8x 14.2x 13.2x 10.3x 3.8% -2.4% 0.7% -0.2% 5.0% 5.1% 5.4% 5.7% RWE € 31.38 OP € 36.00 14.7% 90% € 19,291 € 25,173 8.2x 8.4x 7.5x 7.4x 15.9x 19.3x 14.3x 14.8x -95.1% 0.2% 1.7% 3.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% EDF € 8.60 NR - - 63% € 26,691 € 106,313 5.8x 6.8x 6.4x 6.1x 14.2x 18.2x 15.5x 13.8x -7.7% -10.0% -6.8% -0.2% 3.8% 2.2% 2.8% 3.7% ENGIE € 11.12 NR - - 66% € 27,080 € 81,516 8.0x 8.9x 7.8x 7.6x 10.8x 15.2x 10.4x 9.5x 4.9% 4.2% 9.2% 9.8% 7.0% 5.2% 6.8% 7.4% ENEL € 7.34 NR - - 85% € 74,573 € 134,994 8.4x 7.5x 7.2x 7.0x 15.5x 14.6x 13.6x 13.0x 2.3% 4.8% 6.3% 8.3% 4.5% 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% ENDESA € 22.92 SP € 20.00 (12.7%) 87% € 24,267 € 33,935 8.3x 9.2x 10.4x 9.7x 15.5x 15.9x 20.0x 17.4x 4.6% -1.8% 2.9% 2.8% 6.4% 6.3% 4.0% 4.0% NATURGY € 16.92 OP € 19.00 12.3% 68% € 16,401 € 36,069 7.9x 9.6x 8.5x 8.5x 13.4x 15.2x 13.4x 13.2x 14.0% 4.3% 9.6% 9.8% 8.1% 8.5% 8.9% 9.4% IBERDROLA € 10.39 SP € 10.50 1.1% 90% € 65,607 € 116,779 11.5x 11.0x 10.7x 10.3x 20.2x 17.7x 18.4x 17.6x -0.5% 0.1% 2.6% 2.6% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 4.0% EDP € 4.16 SP € 4.30 3.4% 85% € 16,497 € 35,667 9.3x 9.9x 10.4x 9.7x 21.0x 23.2x 22.1x 20.5x -0.2% -4.5% 0.8% -0.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% Weighted Mean 4.5% 81% € 311,343 € 674,748 9.0x 9.0x 8.6x 8.3x 16.0x 16.5x 15.4x 14.3x -4.1% 0.1% 3.5% 2.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.2% REGULATED NATIONAL GRID * 855p OP 1,050p 22.9% 80% £30,366 £63,348 12.1x 13.1x 12.6x 11.3x 14.4x 16.6x 15.3x 13.4x -4.5% -5.5% -5.6% -4.0% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9% 5.9% PENNON * 1,058p OP 1,150p 8.7% 87% £4,452 £4,274 14.2x 12.6x 11.9x 11.5x 17.1x 36.8x 32.8x 30.9x 0.8% 0.1% 1.6% 1.7% 4.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% SEVERN TRENT * 2,468p SP 2,450p (0.7%) 91% £5,873 £12,439 13.2x 14.2x 13.3x 12.9x 16.9x 23.3x 20.5x 18.2x -0.5% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% UNITED UTILITIES * 872p OP 950p 8.9% 82% £5,946 £12,740 10.2x 12.5x 11.9x 11.6x 13.8x 18.2x 17.7x 17.2x 2.2% 1.8% 5.8% 6.0% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% TERNA € 6.02 NR - - 88% € 12,096 € 21,035 12.0x 11.8x 11.9x 11.9x 16.4x 15.7x 15.5x 15.2x 0.0% -0.4% 1.3% -1.5% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 5.2% SNAM € 4.41 NR - - 86% € 14,825 € 28,202 12.7x 13.0x 12.7x 12.6x 13.6x 13.4x 12.6x 12.4x 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 4.2% 5.5% 5.7% 5.9% 6.4% ITALGAS € 5.35 NR - - 85% € 4,329 € 9,294 10.3x 9.6x 9.5x 9.4x 12.7x 12.3x 12.3x 12.0x 2.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 4.7% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% ENAGAS € 19.64 SP € 19.70 0.3% 75% € 5,144 € 9,559 8.9x 9.9x 10.0x 9.9x 12.2x 12.5x 12.6x 12.7x 1.1% 13.3% 13.1% 13.1% 8.1% 8.6% 8.6% 8.8% RED ELECTRICA € 16.04 OP € 19.00 18.5% 81% € 8,676 € 15,249 9.4x 9.8x 9.7x 9.6x 12.1x 13.3x 13.3x 12.6x -9.5% 7.6% 5.1% 2.5% 6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 6.7% REN € 2.35 SP € 2.50 6.4% 83% € 1,568 € 4,440 9.2x 9.4x 9.2x 9.1x 13.2x 15.6x 14.6x 13.8x 9.9% 10.9% 11.0% 9.0% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% Weighted Mean 15.5% 83% € 97,729 € 189,441 11.6x 12.0x 11.7x 11.2x 14.4x 16.9x 15.8x 14.7x -1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 5.4% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8% RENEWABLES EDPR € 13.62 OP € 16.00 17.5% 91% € 11,881 € 17,775 10.7x 11.2x 12.4x 12.6x 25.0x 23.3x 36.4x 37.0x -0.2% -5.7% -2.2% -5.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% ØRSTED DKK 880 OP DKK 850 (3.4%) 95% DKK 367,599 DKK 399,391 23.3x 23.4x 15.9x 17.9x 68.8x 67.6x 28.5x 51.3x -2.6% -2.5% -3.5% -4.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% FORTUM € 16.94 NR - - 72% € 15,043 € 23,136 12.8x 8.7x 7.9x 7.8x 9.9x 11.7x 12.0x 12.9x 6.5% 8.2% 8.5% 7.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% VERBUND € 46.34 NR - - 90% € 16,099 € 19,402 16.0x 15.9x 15.4x 14.0x 28.7x 29.3x 28.2x 25.1x 0.0% -0.9% -1.8% -1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% ACCIONA € 92.65 OP € 115.00 24.1% 73% € 5,082 € 10,773 7.8x 8.9x 8.4x 7.3x 14.2x 22.9x 16.9x 13.1x -6.2% -0.7% -6.6% 4.0% 2.1% 2.6% 3.6% 4.6% SOLARIA € 15.17 OP € 11.00 (27.5%) 87% € 1,896 € 2,386 67.5x 48.1x 27.7x 17.8x 79.4x 78.5x 61.0x 28.5x -6.6% -13.2% -14.3% -9.0% - - - - Weighted Mean 1.6% 89% € 99,370 € 127,110 18.0x 17.1x 13.5x 14.0x 45.5x 45.5x 26.9x 37.1x -0.7% -1.1% -1.6% -1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% GENERATORS, ENVIRONMENTALS & OTHER DRAX 260p OP 340p 30.6% 71% £1,069 £1,816 4.8x 4.6x 4.5x 3.9x 8.7x 7.7x 7.9x 6.8x 22.6% 19.7% 17.8% 18.7% 6.1% 6.4% 7.1% 7.9% UNIPER € 27.40 UP € 23.00 (16.1%) 89% € 10,027 € 13,653 8.5x 8.1x 8.0x 8.7x 17.4x 15.1x 14.8x 15.5x 2.7% 1.9% 3.0% 3.4% 4.2% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% CONTOURGLOBAL 192p OP 205p 6.8% 85% £1,163 £5,207 7.7x 7.1x 6.3x 6.4x 46.5x 18.5x 10.0x 11.6x -29.3% 16.1% 12.2% 17.1% 6.0% 7.3% 8.0% 8.8% SUEZ € 15.05 NR - - 94% € 9,457 € 22,044 7.2x 7.9x 7.2x 6.7x 26.2x 74.5x 23.0x 19.1x 6.3% 2.8% 6.6% 7.6% 4.3% 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% VEOLIA ENV.
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