Certainty, Necessity, and Knowledge in Hume's Treatise
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What Is the Balance Between Certainty and Uncertainty?
What is the balance between certainty and uncertainty? Susan Griffin, Centre for Health Economics, University of York Overview • Decision analysis – Objective function – The decision to invest/disinvest in health care programmes – The decision to require further evidence • Characterising uncertainty – Epistemic uncertainty, quality of evidence, modelling uncertainty • Possibility for research Theory Objective function • Methods can be applied to any decision problem – Objective – Quantitative index measure of outcome • Maximise health subject to budget constraint – Value improvement in quality of life in terms of equivalent improvement in length of life → QALYs • Maximise health and equity s.t budget constraint – Value improvement in equity in terms of equivalent improvement in health The decision to invest • Maximise health subject to budget constraint – Constrained optimisation problem – Given costs and health outcomes of all available programmes, identify optimal set • Marginal approach – Introducing new programme displaces existing activities – Compare health gained to health forgone resources Slope gives rate at C A which resources converted to health gains with currently funded programmes health HGA HDA resources Slope gives rate at which resources converted to health gains with currently funded programmes CB health HDB HGB Requiring more evidence • Costs and health outcomes estimated with uncertainty • Cost of uncertainty: programme funded on basis of estimated costs and outcomes might turn out not to be that which maximises health -
Augustine on Knowledge
Augustine on Knowledge Divine Illumination as an Argument Against Scepticism ANITA VAN DER BOS RMA: RELIGION & CULTURE Rijksuniversiteit Groningen Research Master Thesis s2217473, April 2017 FIRST SUPERVISOR: dr. M. Van Dijk SECOND SUPERVISOR: dr. dr. F.L. Roig Lanzillotta 1 2 Content Augustine on Knowledge ........................................................................................................................ 1 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ 4 Preface .................................................................................................................................................... 5 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 7 The life of Saint Augustine ................................................................................................................... 9 The influence of the Contra Academicos .......................................................................................... 13 Note on the quotations ........................................................................................................................ 14 1. Scepticism ........................................................................................................................................ -
Would ''Direct Realism'' Resolve the Classical Problem of Induction?
NOU^S 38:2 (2004) 197–232 Would ‘‘Direct Realism’’ Resolve the Classical Problem of Induction? MARC LANGE University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill I Recently, there has been a modest resurgence of interest in the ‘‘Humean’’ problem of induction. For several decades following the recognized failure of Strawsonian ‘‘ordinary-language’’ dissolutions and of Wesley Salmon’s elaboration of Reichenbach’s pragmatic vindication of induction, work on the problem of induction languished. Attention turned instead toward con- firmation theory, as philosophers sensibly tried to understand precisely what it is that a justification of induction should aim to justify. Now, however, in light of Bayesian confirmation theory and other developments in epistemology, several philosophers have begun to reconsider the classical problem of induction. In section 2, I shall review a few of these developments. Though some of them will turn out to be unilluminating, others will profitably suggest that we not meet inductive scepticism by trying to justify some alleged general principle of ampliative reasoning. Accordingly, in section 3, I shall examine how the problem of induction arises in the context of one particular ‘‘inductive leap’’: the confirmation, most famously by Henrietta Leavitt and Harlow Shapley about a century ago, that a period-luminosity relation governs all Cepheid variable stars. This is a good example for the inductive sceptic’s purposes, since it is difficult to see how the sparse background knowledge available at the time could have entitled stellar astronomers to regard their observations as justifying this grand inductive generalization. I shall argue that the observation reports that confirmed the Cepheid period- luminosity law were themselves ‘‘thick’’ with expectations regarding as yet unknown laws of nature. -
Climate Scepticism, Epistemic Dissonance, and the Ethics of Uncertainty
SYMPOSIUM A CHANGING MORAL CLIMATE CLIMATE SCEPTICISM, EPISTEMIC DISSONANCE, AND THE ETHICS OF UNCERTAINTY BY AXEL GELFERT © 2013 – Philosophy and Public Issues (New Series), Vol. 3, No. 1 (2013): 167-208 Luiss University Press E-ISSN 2240-7987 | P-ISSN 1591-0660 [THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK] A CHANGING MORAL CLIMATE Climate Scepticism, Epistemic Dissonance, and the Ethics of Uncertainty Axel Gelfert Abstract. When it comes to the public debate about the challenge of global climate change, moral questions are inextricably intertwined with epistemological ones. This manifests itself in at least two distinct ways. First, for a fixed set of epistemic standards, it may be irresponsible to delay policy- making until everyone agrees that such standards have been met. This has been extensively discussed in the literature on the precautionary principle. Second, key actors in the public debate may—for strategic reasons, or out of simple carelessness—engage in the selective variation of epistemic standards in response to evidence that would threaten to undermine their core beliefs, effectively leading to epistemic double standards that make rational agreement impossible. The latter scenario is aptly described as an instance of what Stephen Gardiner calls “epistemic corruption.” In the present paper, I aim to give an explanation of the cognitive basis of epistemic corruption and discuss its place within the moral landscape of the debate. In particular, I argue that epistemic corruption often reflects an agent’s attempt to reduce dissonance between incoming scientific evidence and the agent’s ideological core commitments. By selectively discounting the former, agents may attempt to preserve the coherence of the latter, yet in doing so they threaten to damage the integrity of evidence-based deliberation. -
Kant's Theory of Knowledge and Hegel's Criticism
U.Ü. FEN-EDEBİYAT FAKÜLTESİ SOSYAL BİLİMLER DERGİSİ Yıl: 2, Sayı: 2, 2000-2001 KANT’S THEORY OF KNOWLEDGE AND HEGEL’S CRITICISM A. Kadir ÇÜÇEN* ABSTRACT Kant inquires into the possibility, sources, conditions and limits of knowledge in the tradition of modern philosophy. Before knowing God, being and reality, Kant, who aims to question what knowledge is, explains the content of pure reason. He formalates a theory of knowledge but his theory is neither a rationalist nor an empiricist theory of knowledge. He investigates the structure of knowledge, the possible conditions of experience and a priori concepts and categories of pure reason; so he makes a revolution like that of Copernicus . Hegel, who is one of proponents of the German idealism, criticizes the Kantian theory of knowledge for “wanting to know before one knows”. For Hegel, Kant’s a priori concepts and categories are meaningless and empty. He claims that the unity of subject and object has been explained in that of the “Absolute”. Therefore, the theory of knowledge goes beyond the dogmatism of the “thing-in- itself” and the foundations of mathematics and natural sciences; and reaches the domain of absolute knowledge. Hegel’s criticism of Kantian theory of knowledge opens new possibilities for the theory of knowledge in our age. ÖZET Kant’ın Bilgi Kuramı ve Hegel’in Eleştirisi Modern felsefe geleneği çerçevesinde Kant, bilginin imkânını, kaynağını, kapsamını ve ölçütlerini ele alarak, doğru bilginin sınırlarını irdelemiştir. Tanrı’yı, varlığı ve gerçekliği bilmeden önce, bilginin neliğini sorgulamayı kendine amaç edinen Kant, saf aklın içeriğini incelemiştir. Saf aklın a priori kavram ve kategorilerini, deneyin görüsünü ve bilgi yapısını veren, fakat ne usçu ne de deneyci * Uludag University, Faculty of Sciences and Letters, Dept. -
Investment Behaviors Under Epistemic Versus Aleatory Uncertainty
Investment Behaviors Under Epistemic versus Aleatory Uncertainty 2 Daniel J. Walters, Assistant Professor of Marketing, INSEAD Europe, Marketing Department, Boulevard de Constance, 77300 Fontainebleau, 01 60 72 40 00, [email protected] Gülden Ülkümen, Gülden Ülkümen, Associate Professor of Marketing at University of Southern California, 701 Exposition Boulevard, Hoffman Hall 516, Los Angeles, CA 90089- 0804, [email protected] Carsten Erner, UCLA Anderson School of Management, 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, CA, USA 90095-1481, [email protected] David Tannenbaum, Assistant Professor of Management, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, (801) 581-8695, [email protected] Craig R. Fox, Harold Williams Professor of Management at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, Professor of Psychology and Medicine at UCLA, 110 Westwood Plaza #D511 Los Angeles, CA, USA 90095-1481, (310) 206-3403, [email protected] 3 Abstract In nine studies, we find that investors intuitively distinguish two independent dimensions of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty that they attribute to missing knowledge, skill, or information, versus aleatory uncertainty that they attribute to chance or stochastic processes. Investors who view stock market uncertainty as higher in epistemicness (knowability) are more sensitive to their available information when choosing whether or not to invest, and are more likely to reduce uncertainty by seeking guidance from experts. In contrast, investors who view stock market uncertainty as higher -
Why Essentialism Requires Two Senses of Necessity’, Ratio 19 (2006): 77–91
Please cite the official published version of this article: ‘Why Essentialism Requires Two Senses of Necessity’, Ratio 19 (2006): 77–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9329.2006.00310.x WHY ESSENTIALISM REQUIRES TWO SENSES OF NECESSITY1 Stephen K. McLeod Abstract I set up a dilemma, concerning metaphysical modality de re, for the essentialist opponent of a ‘two senses’ view of necessity. I focus specifically on Frank Jackson’s two- dimensional account in his From Metaphysics to Ethics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998). I set out the background to Jackson’s conception of conceptual analysis and his rejection of a two senses view. I proceed to outline two purportedly objective (as opposed to epistemic) differences between metaphysical and logical necessity. I conclude that since one of these differences must hold and since each requires the adoption of a two senses view of necessity, essentialism is not consistent with the rejection of a two senses view. I. Terminological Preliminaries The essentialist holds that some but not all of a concrete object’s properties are had necessarily and that necessary properties include properties that are, unlike the property 1 Thanks to John Divers, audiences at the Open University Regional Centre, Leeds and the University of Glasgow and an anonymous referee for comments. 2 of being such that logical and mathematical truths hold, non-trivially necessary. It is a necessary condition on a property’s being essential to an object that it is had of necessity. In the case of concrete objects, some such properties are discoverable by partly empirical means. -
On Categories and a Posteriori Necessity: a Phenomenological Echo
© 2012 The Author Metaphilosophy © 2012 Metaphilosophy LLC and Blackwell Publishing Ltd Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK, and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA METAPHILOSOPHY Vol. 43, Nos. 1–2, January 2012 0026-1068 ON CATEGORIES AND A POSTERIORI NECESSITY: A PHENOMENOLOGICAL ECHO M. J. GARCIA-ENCINAS Abstract: This article argues for two related theses. First, it defends a general thesis: any kind of necessity, including metaphysical necessity, can only be known a priori. Second, however, it also argues that the sort of a priori involved in modal metaphysical knowledge is not related to imagination or any sort of so-called epistemic possibility. Imagination is neither a proof of possibility nor a limit to necessity. Rather, modal metaphysical knowledge is built on intuition of philo- sophical categories and the structures they form. Keywords: a priori, categories, intuition, metaphysical necessity. Fantasy abandoned by reason produces impossible monsters. —Francisco de Goya (1746–1828), The Caprices, plate 43, The Sleep of Reason Produces Monsters 1. Introduction Statements of fact are necessarily true when their truth-maker facts cannot but be the case. Statements of fact are contingently true when their truth-maker facts might not have been the case. I shall argue that modal knowledge, that is, knowledge that a (true/false) statement is necessarily/ contingently true, must be a priori knowledge, even if knowledge that the statement is true or false can be a posteriori. In particular, justified accept- ance of necessary facts requires a priori modal insight concerning some category which they instantiate. In this introduction, the first part of the article, I maintain that Kripke claimed that the knowledge that a statement has its truth-value as a matter of necessity/contingency is a priori founded—even when knowl- edge of its truth/falsehood is a posteriori. -
The Flaw of Averages)
THE NEED FOR GREATER REFLECTION OF HETEROGENEITY IN CEA or (The fLaw of averages) Warren Stevens PhD CONFIDENTIAL © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. Shimmering Substance Jackson Pollock, 1946. © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 2 CONFIDENTIAL 1 Statistical summary of Shimmering Substance Jackson Pollock, 1946. Average color: Brown [Beige-Black] Average position of brushstroke © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 3 CONFIDENTIAL WE KNOW DATA ON EFFECTIVENESS IS FAR MORE COMPLEX THAN WE LIKE TO REPRESENT IT n Many patients are better off with the comparator QALYS gained © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 4 CONFIDENTIAL 2 A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT CE threshold Mean CE Mean CE treatment treatment #1 #2 n Value of Value of Cost per QALY treatment treatment #2 to Joe #1 to Bob © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 5 CONFIDENTIAL A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT • Joe is receiving a treatment that is cost-effective for him, but deemed un cost-effective by/for society • Bob is receiving an treatment that is not cost-effective for him, but has been deemed cost-effective by/for society • So who’s treatment is cost-effective? © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 6 CONFIDENTIAL 3 HYPOTHETICALLY THERE ARE AS MANY LEVELS OF EFFECTIVENESS (OR COST-EFFECTIVENESS) AS THERE ARE PATIENTS What questions or uncertainties stop us recognizing this basic truth in scientific practice? 1. Uncertainty (empiricism) – how do we gauge uncertainty in a sample size of 1? avoiding false positives 2. Policy – how do we institute a separate treatment policy for each and every individual? 3. Information (data) – how we do make ‘informed’ decisions without the level of detail required in terms of information (we know more about populations than we do about people) © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. -
Skill in Epistemology I: Skill and Knowledge
Skill in Epistemology I: Skill and Knowledge Carlotta Pavese Abstract Knowledge and skill are intimately connected. In this essay, I discuss the question of their relationship and of which (if any) is prior to which in the order of explanation. I review some of the answers that have been given thus far in the literature, with a particular focus on the many foundational issues in epistemology that intersect with the philosophy of skill. 1 Introduction Knowledge and skill are intimately connected. Scientists cannot get new knowledge without developing their skills for devising experiments. And skilled artists, scientists, and mathematicians must know a lot about their area of expertise in order to perform skillfully and routinely manifest that knowledge through their skillful performances. Despite this obvious interrelationship, knowledge and skill have received different treatment in analytic epistemology. While philosophers in this tradition have long been in the business of understanding and defining knowledge, the topic of skill has been marginalized. It is only quite recently that skills have made a powerful entrance in two epistemological debates: the debate on virtue epistemology and the debate on the nature of know how. In this essay, I discuss the question of the relationship between skill and knowledge (Section §2) and of which (if any) is prior to which in the order of explanation (Section §3), with an eye to highlighting the many foundational issues in epistemology that intersect with the philosophy of skill. In section §3, I will start discussing the relationship between skill and know how, which will be the main topic of the sequel to this essay. -
The Problem of Induction
The Problem of Induction Gilbert Harman Department of Philosophy, Princeton University Sanjeev R. Kulkarni Department of Electrical Engineering, Princeton University July 19, 2005 The Problem The problem of induction is sometimes motivated via a comparison between rules of induction and rules of deduction. Valid deductive rules are necessarily truth preserving, while inductive rules are not. So, for example, one valid deductive rule might be this: (D) From premises of the form “All F are G” and “a is F ,” the corresponding conclusion of the form “a is G” follows. The rule (D) is illustrated in the following depressing argument: (DA) All people are mortal. I am a person. So, I am mortal. The rule here is “valid” in the sense that there is no possible way in which premises satisfying the rule can be true without the corresponding conclusion also being true. A possible inductive rule might be this: (I) From premises of the form “Many many F s are known to be G,” “There are no known cases of F s that are not G,” and “a is F ,” the corresponding conclusion can be inferred of the form “a is G.” The rule (I) might be illustrated in the following “inductive argument.” (IA) Many many people are known to have been moral. There are no known cases of people who are not mortal. I am a person. So, I am mortal. 1 The rule (I) is not valid in the way that the deductive rule (D) is valid. The “premises” of the inductive inference (IA) could be true even though its “con- clusion” is not true. -
Epistemology and Philosophy of Science
OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – FIRSTPROOFS, Wed Apr 06 2016, NEWGEN Chapter 11 Epistemology and Philosophy of Science Otávio Bueno 1 Introduction It is a sad fact of contemporary epistemology and philosophy of science that there is very little substantial interaction between the two fields. Most epistemological theo- ries are developed largely independently of any significant reflection about science, and several philosophical interpretations of science are articulated largely independently of work done in epistemology. There are occasional exceptions, of course. But the general point stands. This is a missed opportunity. Closer interactions between the two fields would be ben- eficial to both. Epistemology would gain from a closer contact with the variety of mech- anisms of knowledge generation that are produced in scientific research, with attention to sources of bias, the challenges associated with securing truly representative samples, and elaborate collective mechanisms to secure the objectivity of scientific knowledge. It would also benefit from close consideration of the variety of methods, procedures, and devices of knowledge acquisition that shape scientific research. Epistemological theories are less idealized and more sensitive to the pluralism and complexities involved in securing knowledge of various features of the world. Thus, philosophy of science would benefit, in turn, from a closer interaction with epistemology, given sophisticated conceptual frameworks elaborated to refine and characterize our understanding of knowledge,