G8 Brief.Pmd

Harvard Model Congress Europe 2006 GROUP OF EIGHT G8 Expansion: China, India, and Beyond? BY MATT SULLIVAN Introduction the international agenda, shared common values, and could use their influence to address major challenges in the international sphere. However, recent changes in the global land- scape have led some leaders to question whether the G8 ad- In studying global politics and economics, some ob- equately reflects the current distribution of global political and servers tend to view international organizations as relatively economic power. Those leaders, including several current G8 static bodies. However, this perspective misses the underly- members, have proposed bringing additional countries into ing complexity. Global institutions are subject to constant the fold, and no two countries have received more attention change — rules are amended, challenges evolve, and new prob- than China and India. lems arise. One of the most profound ways international insti- Underlying the debate over G8 expansion are major tutions evolve is through changes in their membership. For theoretical questions of the G8’s raison d’être, its reason example, the World Trade Organization (WTO), North Atlantic for existence. The institution’s future is at stake, as its mem- Treaty Organization (NATO), and European Union (EU), have bership controls its potential and constraints. Introducing all been transformed through the addition of new member states. more opinions and perspectives will diversify the G8 dis- Such changes are often hard to predict. During the height of cussions and agenda, but could that diversity render the G8 the Cold War, who could have imagined that Poland and the incapable of fulfilling its mission and of speaking with a Baltic States would leave the Soviet sphere and join groups unified voice on the major challenges of our time? That such as NATO and the EU? These changes are not to be taken fundamental question cannot be ignored as the G8 Commit- lightly: membership in international groups can either reflect tee enters its deliberations over the benefits and costs of dramatic shifts in national identity or result in dramatic shifts expansion. in that identity. Perhaps some of each phenomenon is present. Like these other institutions, the Group of Eight (G8) must also frequently reexamine its composition, and decide whether History of the Problem changes in membership may help the organization better fulfill its objectives. The Formation of the G8 Explanation of the Problem In addressing the question of G8 expansion, it is useful to trace the history and evolution of the G8 as an institution. The origins of the G8 may be traced to the early 1970s, when the United States organized a group of finan- Heads of state from the world’s most advanced in- cial officials in response to the oil crisis and worldwide eco- dustrial nations gather at the G8 conference to discuss several nomic recession. The Library Group, as the gathering was of the central challenges of international affairs. Member states called, included officials from France, Germany, Great Brit- of the G8 have been characterized by thoroughly developed ain, Italy, Japan, as well as from the United States. In 1975, economies, liberal democratic systems of government, and their French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing organized a sum- location in the Western Hemisphere (with the exception of mit in Rambouillet, and proposed holding annual meetings Japan and Russia). The organization sought to include deci- to discuss major economic and political issues. With this sion-makers from the states with the greatest ability to control action, the G6 was born. 1 Harvard Model Congress Europe 2006 Group of Eight: G8 Expansion: China, India, and Beyond? G6, 7, 8… Two processes serve as models for a possible Chinese ascent to the G8: the addition of Russia to the The G6 however, lasted for only a year. The 1976 G7 in 1998, and the approval of Chinese membership to meeting included Canada, whose inclusion was supported the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. In each by US President Gerald Ford. For eighteen years, the G7 case, membership was granted only after a multi-year remained in the same form. Following the collapse of the process, during which time the candidate country Soviet Union and end of the Cold War in 1991, another proved its worthiness for membership while present new candidate emerged. The Russian Federation had as- members of the institutions prepared themselves for sumed the Soviet Union’s place on the United Nations the coming evolution. Security Council, and positioned itself under Mikhail Gorbechav’s policies of glasnost and perestroika to join Russia and the G8 the ranks of the industrial democracies. In 1991, Russia began meetings with the G7 following the main summit. The five-year ascension of Russia to G8 mem- The 1994 Naples summit marked the first use of the term bership between 1994 and 1998 offers a possible model “G7 plus 1” to describe the proceedings, and, in 1998 Rus- for future expansion. Approval of Russian membership sia was allowed to participate officially in the main sum- was generally viewed as a reward for a combination of mit. This marked the creation of the G8 as it exists today. reform and acquiescence on the part of Moscow throughout the 1990s. Following the disintegration of Recent Developments the Soviet Union in 1991, the remaining Russian Fed- eration could have moved in an aggressive, nationalist direction or sought to maintain a state-run economy. China Emerges as a Contender Instead, President Boris Yeltsin guided Russia throughout the early 1990s on what many in the West under- In recent years, proponents of G8 expansion have stood to be a courageous, though often painful pro- pointed to economic data as the strongest case for new cess of dramatic market reforms and privatization. In membership. Russia, the most recent entrant to the G8, addition, Yeltsin oversaw the drafting and ratification ranks only tenth in the world in gross domestic product of a new constitution that leaders in G8 member states (GDP), the standard measure of economic output, in a re- hoped would put Russia on a solid path toward demo- cent International Monetary Fund study. The World Bank, cratic consolidation. in contrast, places Russia 16th, behind such nations as the Another issue – the expansion of NATO – also Netherlands, Brazil, and South Africa. More importantly, motivated supporters of Russian membership. With the China and India now rank second and fourth, respectively, collapse of the Soviet Union, the NATO alliance had in GDP — levels that surpass all but two of the current G8 fulfilled its original objective in keeping the Soviets out members. Clearly, then, the traditional view of the G8 as of Western Europe. Nevertheless, Western leaders encompassing the ‘biggest and richest’ no longer holds sought to redefine NATO’s mission and expand its ranks true. to include former Warsaw Pact countries. Allowing the Serious speculation about the possibility of eastward expansion of NATO did not come easily to Chinese membership in the G7/G8 began in 1997-1998. Russians, who viewed much of the adjacent territory as Chinese president Jiang Zemin visited the United States part of a “near abroad” in which their primacy must be in October 1997, and President Bill Clinton reciprocated maintained. Russia, however, did agree to stand aside with at trip to Beijing in June 1998. This growing rela- in the mid-1990s as talks of NATO expansion intensi- tionship helped to elevate Chinese standing and began fied. Its tacit cooperation on the NATO issue led lead- to pave the way for China to join the international com- ers such as American President Bill Clinton to advocate munity in a previously unforeseen capacity. The cen- G8 membership as a reward for its acquiescence. After tral goal of these meetings in the late 1990s, however, attending several G7 summits in a reduced role, Russia’s was Chinese membership in the WTO. Joining the G7 rise to full membership came in completion in 1998, when as an eighth member was at best a secondary consider- the first G8 summit was held in Birmingham, UK. Al- ation. More recently, British Prime Minister Tony Blair though Russia is a full-fledged member, as the smallest — host of the 2005 G8 summit — and other leaders economy of the group it does not participate in eco- have advocated new debate over a possible invitation nomic and financial discussions. for China to join the ranks of the G8. 2 Harvard Model Congress Europe 2006 Group of Eight: G8 Expansion: China, India, and Beyond? Rethinking the Decision? Rise of the Indian Economy A number of leaders in G8 nations, however, have While Indian membership to the G8 is a more been disappointed with the path Russia has taken since recent suggestion than the membership of China, the earning its membership. Since the rise of President Vladimir strong economic growth and large GDP of this still de- Putin in 2000, Russian democracy has slipped toward veloping nation presents a compelling case on economic greater authoritarianism and centralized control. Demo- grounds. India’s GDP per capita nearly doubled between cratic freedoms have eroded considerably in the last sev- 1990 and 2002, and has posted an average growth rate eral years, with the suppression of independent media of 6.8% per year since 1994. In 2004 the estimated GDP and politically-motivated arrest of former Yukos chairman was $3.3 trillion, making India the fourth largest Mikhail Khodorkovsky, just two examples of the Kremlin’s economy in the world. heavy-handed tactics. In February, 2005, the changes led American Senators Joseph Lieberman and John McCain 2005 Summit to call for Russia’s suspension from the G8. As the Rus- sian case demonstrates, membership alongside industrial Recently, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair sought democracies does not guarantee that a state’s domestic to use Great Britain’s 2005 G8 presidency to advance the policies — such as those of China — will shift decidedly issue of global climate change, and it is in this context that toward those of its G8 peers.

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