The Real Time Data & Forecasting Project

Home , California Aqueduct, Clifton Court Forebay

California DWR’s Real-Time Data and Forecasting Project: Modeling to Avoid Unpleasant Surprises

Ted Swift Municipal Water Quality Program, Office of Water Quality, California Dept. of Water Resources [email protected] Outline

• Introduction – Project goals – Relation to other RTDF efforts • Modeling Components – Watersheds, – Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, – Aqueduct(s) • Model Products and Services • Questions & Comments Project Goals

• “Avoid unpleasant surprises” • Provide data and information to source water and system managers, municipal treatment plant operators, researchers, and stakeholders to: – optimize and balance resource use, – promote science-based decision making, and – promote economic efficiency. RTDF “Three-legged stool”: Modeling leg

Data Collection Prediction Evolve to meet Emerging Concerns WARMF Watershed DSM2 Model Station Maintenance & Enhancement DSM2 Aqueduct Extension Model

Meet User Needs Data QA/QC Visualization Dissemination Storage

Information Dissemination Linking Sources to Destinations

• Watersheds • Delta • Aqueducts Modeling, Forecasting, Fingerprinting

• Provide: “Early Warning” capability to interested parties • Hydrodynamic modeling of Delta and Aqueduct (DSM2) • “Fingerprinting” water sources (volume), and constituents (EC and DOC) • Future: Biogeochemical processes and hypothesis testing Modeling Where does municipal water come from? Will source water quality change, and if so, can we predict it in advance? • Modeling as a collaborative team: MWQI, the Bay-Delta Office, and DWR O&M • Three models (among others): – Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) Model for Sacramento and San Joaquin River watersheds. – Delta Simulation Model 2 (DSM2) for the Delta. – DSM2 Aqueduct Extension for the Federal CVP Delta-Mendota Canal and the State California Aqueduct. Modeling Efforts and Components

• WARMF model: Watersheds • DSM2 Model: Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta • DSM2 Aqueduct Extension Model: State Water Project & Central Valley Project (East Bay, South Bay, Central and Southern California) Sacramento WARMF Watershed Models River Basin • Provide connection between precipitation and water quality and quantity. • In calibration and validation

San Joaquin

River Basin Marcia Scavone-Tansey, MWQI WARMF Watershed Model Basins • Sacramento River • San Joaquin River • East Side Streams

Joel Herr, Systech

Joel Herr, Systech Delta Simulation Model 2 (DSM2): From Rivers and Islands to the Pumps Sacramento • DSM2 Model Grid

Rio Vista

Benicia

10 0 Antioch Stockton

Tracy Aqueduct Extension Model

• East Bay Branch • Delta-Mendota Canal • California Aqueduct • East Branch • West Branch

Shannon, Wikipedia DSM2 Aqueduct Extension: From the Pumps to the Farms and Cities Modeling Information Products • Source Water “Fingerprinting” • Forecasting (Short-Term & Seasonal)

Modeled EC Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay Forecasted EC at South Bay Pumping Plant EC-Martinez EC-Delta EC-EAST 800 EC-SJR EC-Sac EC 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400

EC (us/cm) EC 300 300 200 200 With Transfers 100 100 Base Case 0

EC Source Contributions, uS/cm uS/cm Contributions,ECSource 0 10-Sep-13 17-Sep-13 24-Sep-13 01-Oct-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Date EC at Aqueduct Check structures 2,13,41 and for Silverwood Lake; Inflows 90% Exceedance Level; D1641 Restrictive May_2013 Allocation Study 900

800

700

600

500

400 EC EC (us/cm) 300 Check 2 200 Check 13 Check 41 100 Silverwood 0 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Date Fingerprinting What sources contribute to water constituents, and how does it vary?

Source Time Tracking Tracking The bucket contains water from The water from each source several water sources: traveled at varying rates: • Tributary Rivers, •This week, last week, • San Francisco Bay, •last month, etc. • Agricultural Drains, etc. Sacramento River San Joaquin River Martinez (Seawater) Flood Bypass East Side Rvrs Ag. Drainage Example Fingerprints

Modeled Volumetric Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay Martinez Delta East SJR Sac 100%

80%

60% Modeled EC Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay 40% EC-Martinez EC-Delta EC-EAST EC-SJR EC-Sac EC 700 20%

Percent of Source Water Water ofSourcePercent 600 0% 500 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 400 Modeled DOC Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay DOC-Delta DOC-EAST DOC-SJR DOC-SAC DOC H.O. Banks PP 300 6 200 5 100 4

EC Source Contributions, uS/cm uS/cm Contributions,ECSource 0 May-13 Jun-133 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

DOC Source Contributions, mg/L mg/L Contributions, Source DOC May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Example Fingerprints, Continued

Modeled Volumetric Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay Martinez Delta East SJR Sac 100%

80%

60%

40%

20% Percent of Source Water Water ofSourcePercent

0% May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Modeled EC Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay EC-Martinez EC-Delta EC-EAST EC-SJR EC-Sac EC 700 600 500 400 300 200 100

EC Source Contributions, uS/cm uS/cm Contributions,ECSource 0 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Example Fingerprints, concluded

Modeled Volumetric Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay Martinez Delta East SJR Sac 100%

80%

60%

40%

20% Percent of Source Water Water ofSourcePercent

0% May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Modeled DOC Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay

DOC-Delta DOC-EAST DOC-SJR DOC-SAC DOC H.O. Banks PP 6

DOC Source Contributions, mg/L mg/L Contributions, Source DOC May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Sacramento Water Quality Forecasts

• Short term (future ~3 weeks) Rio Vista

• Seasonal (future ~7 months) Benicia

10 0 Antioch • Constituents: EC, Bromide, DOC Stockton

Forecasted EC at South Bay Pumping Plant 800 Tracy

700

600

500 EC at Aqueduct Check structures 2,13,41 and for Silverwood Lake; Inflows 90% Exceedance Level; 400 D1641 Restrictive May_2013 Allocation Study 900 EC (us/cm) EC 300 800 200 700 With Transfers 100 Base Case 600 0 500 10-Sep-13 17-Sep-13 24-Sep-13 01-Oct-13 400 Date EC (us/cm) 300 Check 2 (as of last week) 200 Check 13 Check 41 100 Silverwood 0 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Date (as of May 2013) RTDF Program results: Innovative uses of information

• An Early-Warning System for Source Water Managers, State & Federal Project Operators, Treatment Plant Operators • An information source for Water Contaminant Sources, Transport and Loads for Scientists, Agencies • Monitor and Model Transport of Contaminants from Different Sources • Determine Priority Sources for Watershed Protection Efforts • RTDF operates a data dissemination website (http://water.ca.gov/waterquality/drinkingwater/rtdf_rprt.cfm) – updated daily; – users can access real-time, forecasted, and historical data and information; – Data are organized according to watersheds and constituents Questions and Comments

Ted Swift, Ph.D. Municipal Water Quality Investigations Branch, Office of Water Quality, California Dept. of Water Resources [email protected]