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The Real Time Data & Forecasting Project

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The Real Time Data & Forecasting Project California DWR’s Real-Time Data and Forecasting Project: Modeling to Avoid Unpleasant Surprises Ted Swift Municipal Water Quality Program, Office of Water Quality, California Dept. of Water Resources [email protected] Outline • Introduction – Project goals – Relation to other RTDF efforts • Modeling Components – Watersheds, – Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, – Aqueduct(s) • Model Products and Services • Questions & Comments Project Goals • “Avoid unpleasant surprises” • Provide data and information to source water and system managers, municipal treatment plant operators, researchers, and stakeholders to: – optimize and balance resource use, – promote science-based decision making, and – promote economic efficiency. RTDF “Three-legged stool”: Modeling leg Data Collection Prediction Evolve to meet Emerging Concerns WARMF Watershed DSM2 Model Station Maintenance & Enhancement DSM2 Aqueduct Extension Model Meet User Needs Data QA/QC Visualization Dissemination Storage Information Dissemination Linking Sources to Destinations • Watersheds • Delta • Aqueducts Modeling, Forecasting, Fingerprinting • Provide: “Early Warning” capability to interested parties • Hydrodynamic modeling of Delta and Aqueduct (DSM2) • “Fingerprinting” water sources (volume), and constituents (EC and DOC) • Future: Biogeochemical processes and hypothesis testing Modeling Where does municipal water come from? Will source water quality change, and if so, can we predict it in advance? • Modeling as a collaborative team: MWQI, the Bay-Delta Office, and DWR O&M • Three models (among others): – Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) Model for Sacramento and San Joaquin River watersheds. – Delta Simulation Model 2 (DSM2) for the Delta. – DSM2 Aqueduct Extension for the Federal CVP Delta-Mendota Canal and the State California Aqueduct. Modeling Efforts and Components • WARMF model: Watersheds • DSM2 Model: Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta • DSM2 Aqueduct Extension Model: State Water Project & Central Valley Project (East Bay, South Bay, Central and Southern California) Sacramento WARMF Watershed Models River Basin • Provide connection between precipitation and water quality and quantity. • In calibration and validation San Joaquin River Basin Marcia Scavone-Tansey, MWQI WARMF Watershed Model Basins • Sacramento River • San Joaquin River • East Side Streams Joel Herr, Systech Joel Herr, Systech Delta Simulation Model 2 (DSM2): From Rivers and Islands to the Pumps Sacramento • DSM2 Model Grid Rio Vista Benicia 10 0 Antioch Stockton Tracy Aqueduct Extension Model • East Bay Branch • Delta-Mendota Canal • California Aqueduct • East Branch • West Branch Shannon, Wikipedia DSM2 Aqueduct Extension: From the Pumps to the Farms and Cities Modeling Information Products • Source Water “Fingerprinting” • Forecasting (Short-Term & Seasonal) Modeled EC Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay Forecasted EC at South Bay Pumping Plant EC-Martinez EC-Delta EC-EAST 800 EC-SJR EC-Sac EC 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 EC (us/cm) EC 300 300 200 200 With Transfers 100 100 Base Case 0 EC Source Contributions, uS/cm uS/cmContributions, EC Source 0 10-Sep-13 17-Sep-13 24-Sep-13 01-Oct-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Date EC at Aqueduct Check structures 2,13,41 and for Silverwood Lake; Inflows 90% Exceedance Level; D1641 Restrictive May_2013 Allocation Study 900 800 700 600 500 400 EC EC (us/cm) 300 Check 2 200 Check 13 Check 41 100 Silverwood 0 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Date Fingerprinting What sources contribute to water constituents, and how does it vary? Source Time Tracking Tracking The bucket contains water from The water from each source several water sources: traveled at varying rates: • Tributary Rivers, •This week, last week, • San Francisco Bay, •last month, etc. • Agricultural Drains, etc. Sacramento River San Joaquin River Martinez (Seawater) Flood Bypass East Side Rvrs Ag. Drainage Example Fingerprints Modeled Volumetric Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay Martinez Delta East SJR Sac 100% Modeled EC Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay 80% EC-Martinez EC-Delta EC-EAST EC-SJR EC-Sac EC 700 60% 600 500 40% 400 20%300 Percent of Source Water Water ofSourcePercent 200 1000% May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 ModeledAug-13 DOC FingerprintSep-13 at Clifton Court Forebay EC Source Contributions, uS/cm uS/cmContributions, EC Source 0 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 DOC-Delta DOC-EAST DOC-SJR DOC-SAC DOC H.O. Banks PP 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 DOC Source Contributions, mg/L mg/L Contributions, Source DOC May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Example Fingerprints, Continued Modeled Volumetric Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay Martinez Delta East SJR Sac 100% Modeled EC Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay 80% EC-Martinez EC-Delta EC-EAST EC-SJR EC-Sac EC 700 60% 600 500 40% 400 20%300 Percent of Source Water Water ofSourcePercent 200 1000% May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 EC Source Contributions, uS/cm uS/cmContributions, EC Source 0 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Example Fingerprints, concluded Modeled Volumetric Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay Martinez Delta East SJR Sac 100% 80% 60% 40% Modeled DOC Fingerprint at Clifton Court Forebay 20% Percent of Source Water Water ofSourcePercent DOC-Delta DOC-EAST DOC-SJR DOC-SAC DOC H.O. Banks PP 0% 6 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 5 4 3 2 1 0 DOC Source Contributions, mg/L mg/L Contributions, Source DOC May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Water Quality Forecasts • Short term (future ~3 weeks)Sacramento Forecasted EC at South Bay Pumping Plant • Seasonal (future ~7 months)800 700 • Constituents: EC, Bromide,600 DOC 500 400 EC (us/cm) EC 300 200 With Transfers 100 Base Case 0 Rio Vista 10-Sep-13 17-Sep-13 24-Sep-13 01-Oct-13 Date EC at Aqueduct Check structures 2,13,41 and for Benicia Silverwood Lake; Inflows 90% Exceedance Level; D1641 Restrictive May_2013 Allocation Study 10 0 900 800Antioch 700 Stockton 600 500 (as of last400 week) EC EC (us/cm) 300 Check 2 200 Check 13 Check 41 100 Silverwood 0 Tracy May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13(as of May 2013) Date RTDF Program results: Innovative uses of information • An Early-Warning System for Source Water Managers, State & Federal Project Operators, Treatment Plant Operators • An information source for Water Contaminant Sources, Transport and Loads for Scientists, Agencies • Monitor and Model Transport of Contaminants from Different Sources • Determine Priority Sources for Watershed Protection Efforts • RTDF operates a data dissemination website (http://water.ca.gov/waterquality/drinkingwater/rtdf_rprt.cfm) – updated daily; – users can access real-time, forecasted, and historical data and information; – Data are organized according to watersheds and constituents Questions and Comments ? Ted Swift, Ph.D. Municipal Water Quality Investigations Branch, Office of Water Quality, California Dept. of Water Resources [email protected].
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