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Central Banks, Climate Change and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy

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Central Banks, Climate Change and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy CENTRAL BANKS, CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE TRANSITION TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY The 2015 Paris Agreement commits tax and spend existing money, banks the world to limiting the global create new money and purchasing temperature rise to well below 2° power via the act of lending. At the Celsius. In this context, a number aggregate level, their lending decisions of initiatives have been launched have the power to shape the long-term to help stimulate financial support trajectory of the economy. for achieving the transition to a low-carbon economy. These market- Central banks have responsibility over orientated initiatives focus mainly large swathes of financial regulation on mobilising existing private capital and their powers enable them – from institutional investors. So far, should they choose – to influence the the results have been disappointing allocation of private-sector credit and and the low-carbon investment ‘gap’ financial flows. remains huge.1 But while central banks have played an The role of central banks and the increasingly interventionist role in our banking sector more generally in economies since the financial crisis, this supporting the transition to a low- has not coincided with any significant carbon economy has been largely adjustment of their policies to support neglected. This is striking given the a low-carbon transition. With few significant influence central banks exceptions, there has not been notable have over our economies, and it pressure for this to change from must be rectified. politicians, the media, civil society or citizens. Monetary policy and financial In modern economies, the banking regulation are generally viewed as system creates between 85% and technocratic fields, best left to experts. 97% of the money supply.2 Whilst governments and non-bank financial This briefing seeks to help address this intermediaries – like pension funds – problem. Below we: NEW ECONOMICS FOUNDATION CENTRAL BANKS, CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON ECONOMY: A POLICY BRIEFING 1) Explain how central banks should KEY POINTS: play a more prominent role in • Central banks are publicly owned supporting a low-carbon transition institutions. Their mandates rather than maintain the status quo; should support the long-term 2) Identify some policy interventions public good, and environmental that could help central banks address sustainability should be included the growing challenges of climate in these objectives. change. In particular, we recommend a • Financial stability is a key part of green macroprudential policy approach, existing central bank mandates, green credit allocation interventions, and climate change poses and greening central bank balance systemic risks to the financial sheets (also known as ‘Green QE’). system. There is therefore a clear case for a more interventionist approach. • Current central bank policy risks reinforcing the current ‘carbon lock-in’ of energy systems centred upon fossil fuels, which endangers financial stability and undermines the Paris Agreement on climate change. • The focus of financial regulators on encouraging greater disclosure of financial institutions’ exposure to climate change related shocks is welcome but insufficient given the urgency of action required. • Policy must be redesigned to strengthen financial resilience, so that policy responses help the financial system absorb shocks, whilst adapting and transforming it so that it is less susceptible to future risks of climate change. 2 NEW ECONOMICS FOUNDATION CENTRAL BANKS, CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON ECONOMY: A POLICY BRIEFING BOX 1: WHAT MODERN CENTRAL BANKS DO 2) Financial regulation, which defines Central banks are public institutions the rules for financial institutions at and their mandates are usually both the individual level (‘prudential’ determined by governments. Since policy) and at the systemic level the 1990s their mandates have been (‘macroprudential’ policy) to strongly focused on price stability, safeguard financial stability. These typically an inflation target of around can include rules around the amount 2%. Since the 2008 financial crisis, and type of capital banks must hold there has been an acceptance that relative to their loans in case of this must be balanced at all times defaults and also specific restrictions with ensuring financial stability – on certain types of lending, e.g. one of the key lessons of the crisis conditions on the possible size of was that price stability can coincide mortgage loans. with the build-up of excessive financial risk. Central banks typically also have a secondary objective to support general government economic policy in their mandates. Since the 1990s, most central banks in advanced economies have been granted ‘operational independence’, meaning they are free to apply their toolkit to pursue the goals set by politicians in whatever fashion they prefer. Generally speaking, central banks influence the economy through: 1) Monetary policy, which involves influencing the flow of money and credit in the economy in order to achieve price stability (i.e. preventing excessive inflation or deflation). This is mainly achieved via adjustments to interest rates and the purchase or selling of existing financial assets (such as government bonds) via central bank money creation. The latter has been conducted on a very large scale since the financial crisis via ‘Quantitative Easing’ programmes. 3 NEW ECONOMICS FOUNDATION CENTRAL BANKS, CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON ECONOMY: A POLICY BRIEFING PART 1: WHY CENTRAL BANKS Central bank responsibilities have ARE ESSENTIAL TO THE LOW- always been focused on the economic CARBON TRANSITION context and challenges at hand. Climate change is one of the greatest 1.1 Central banks are public and most urgent challenges facing institutions with a responsibility to modern economies. It should be support wider public objectives integral to central bank policy agendas, Central banks are public institutions. even aside from the legal obligations Although their primary objectives are facing all signatories to the Paris predominantly price and financial Agreement. stability, most central banks also 1.2 All potential funding have secondary objectives around sources must be tapped to deliver supporting the general objectives the vast sums needed for the of government (see box 1). The rapid low-carbon transition transition to a low-carbon economy is A successful transition will only be one such objective, as mandated by the possible if agents of the state and Paris Agreement. financial sector act collaboratively The role of the central bank is not in the same direction and bring the carved in stone: it has changed through market with them. Ministries of history. The first central banks were finance, regulators, and central banks established to enhance the financial need to coordinate their activities power of the sovereign – primarily to and adapt their policies to address help finance wars; and in some cases, climate change, ensuring the credit to help develop financial markets and monetary system is fully aligned and promote domestic economic with the transition to a low-carbon development.3 Over time, the roles economy. and responsibilities of central banks One argument against central banks have ebbed and flowed in response incorporating climate change into their to economic events and changing policy agenda is that it is unnecessary monetary theory and practice.4 and the ‘job of government’ or financial For the majority of the 20th century markets more generally. But there is central banks have had a range of a vast amount of investment required different objectives within their for a low-carbon transition. As shown mandates. These have included in Figure 1, the total infrastructure high or full employment, managing investment required for a successful and reducing government deficits, low-carbon transition from 2015 until supporting strategic industrial sectors 2030 is estimated to be around the $95 and exchange rate stability as well trillion mark. Therefore, on an annual as price and financial stability.5 For basis, investment would have to more example, central banks worked than double from around current actual closely with ministries of finance to investment of $3 trillion to just under 7 support post-war reconstruction and 7 trillion every year. The extent of this investment in infrastructure. 6 challenge is put into perspective by the fact that the required investment is nearly two times the value of the total global infrastructure stock (approximately $50 trillion).8 4 NEW ECONOMICS FOUNDATION CENTRAL BANKS, CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON ECONOMY: A POLICY BRIEFING FIGURE 1: THE GREEN FINANCE GAP: ESTIMATED GREEN INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS PER YEAR, 2015-2030 8 7 Key: 6 Water and Waste 5 Telecom 4 Energy $ Trillions 3 Transport 2 (2015 Constant Prices) (2015 Constant 1 0 OECD (2017) McKinsey (2017) Source: Authors calculations based on ‘OECD (2017). Investing in Climate Growth: a synthesis. OECD publishing; Paris,’ ‘Brookings (2016). Delivering on sustainable infrastructure for better development and better climate;’ and ‘McKinsey (2016) Bridging global infrastructure gaps. McKinsey & Company, London.’ Market-based attempts at boosting Given this, the role of finance plays an green finance, such as the creation of ever more important part in driving carbon trading schemes, have been forward innovation and radical shifts largely disappointing.9 There is also in production.
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