Polis-Paper-2.Pdf
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
LONG SHOTS AND BOLD CLAIMS: SCENARIOS ON FUTURE CHALLENGES TO THE GLOBAL ORDER TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 2 Executive Summaries 3 Zusammenfassungen 6 A Note On Methodology 9 The Carbon Bubble: The Next Financial Crisis Waiting To Happen? By Julian Schwartzkopff 10 How Tax Evasion Undermines Governments And Societies, By Kevin Müller 16 Peak Oil Demand And The Petro-States: A Collapsing Oil Price Leads To Power Shifts And Instability, By Julian Schwartzkopff 22 The Rise Of China Mirrored In The South China Sea Dispute, By Fanny Ries 28 Summer Is Coming: Will An Ice-Free Arctic Become A Region Of Cooperation Or Conflict? By Stephan Hoare 33 The Global Increase Of Hybrid Warfare: The Case Of Russia’s War In Ukraine, By Ann-Sophie Gast and Salome Minesashvili 39 Antimicrobial Resistance: Approaching An Age Of Untreatable Global Epidemics? By Jannes Elfgen 45 Editors and Authors 50 Polis180 53 ! 1 LONG SHOTS AND BOLD CLAIMS: SCENARIOS ON FUTURE CHALLENGES TO THE GLOBAL ORDER INTRODUCTION Berlin, February 2017. Younger generations like ours Overall, the power of nation states, which form the have enjoyed the privilege of growing up in a relatively foundation of the international order, has been peaceful and prosperous era. The system of gradually eroded. The increasing importance of non- international order that has evolved since World War II state actors such as banks and large multi-national has made it possible to overcome the turbulent times of corporations, as well as increasingly sophisticated the early 20th century. This system is underpinned by crime and terror organizations, is shifting power away various forums for institutionalized international from nation states while their fates are increasingly cooperation, most important among them the United governed by factors that transcend national borders. Nations and the Bretton Woods institutions. Yet, these organizations do not reflect today’s geopolitical power Against this backdrop, Polis180 has assembled a team structure. The rise of China and other emerging of young authors to analyze key global challenges, how economies has fundamentally altered the underlying they might affect the international order, and how they balance of power. Are our international institutions still could evolve. This report deals with seven such issues, fit for purpose to manage the challenges the world is outlining two possible futures for each: one where they facing in the 21st century? are addressed effectively (the Blue Sky scenario) and one where they are not (the Dark Sky scenario). To date, international institutions have shown sluggishness in tackling mass migration, epidemics, In conceptualizing and drafting this study, our team of climate change, new security threats as well as young authors has received generous intellectual and economic and financial crises. In response, political organizational support by Hanns W. Maull of the disaffection and the success of the Donald Trumps of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik and Heiko Nitzschke this world has risen, offering protectionism, nationalism of the Federal Foreign Office, for which we are and militarism as an alternative. extremely grateful. The editorial team, Kevin Müller, Fanny Ries, and Julian Schwartzkopff 2 LONG SHOTS AND BOLD CLAIMS: SCENARIOS ON FUTURE CHALLENGES TO THE GLOBAL ORDER EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES The problems the international order faces are increasingly global in nature. They require effective collaboration of states with diverse and often opposed interests in order to achieve jointly beneficial solutions. This is clearly illustrated by the scenarios in the following chapters. At the same time, the problem-solving capacity of the system itself has increasingly been put into question. The influence of nation states is on the decline. Many future challenges pose difficulties to democratic decision-making processes as solutions are often unpopular, difficult to communicate, or produce benefits over longer time spans than short-lived electoral cycles. Rather than attempting to provide a coherent story across all chapters or to merely extrapolate current trends, our scenarios offer snapshots of many possible futures. CHALLENGE 1: THE CARBON BUBBLE - THE NEXT CHALLENGE 2: HOW TAX EVASION UNDERMINES FINANCIAL CRISIS WAITING TO HAPPEN? GOVERNMENTS AND SOCIETIES Julian Schwartzkopff Kevin Müller This chapter details the risk of an economic crisis This chapter describes how foregone tax revenues could resulting from a carbon bubble in company valuations. exacerbate income inequality while eroding the budgetary The bubble stems from fossil fuel reserves counted at full resources that governments rely on. In the Dark Sky value in balance sheets even though most of them can scenario, countries fail to adopt effective global tax never be burnt if efforts to reduce CO2 emissions are regulation and shut down tax havens, instead preferring to taken seriously. In the Dark Sky scenario, the bubble attract business and investment via tax competition. This bursts starting with coal, followed by oil. The resulting results in increased inequality and political discontent, shock transmits to financial institutions, causes a major shifting power to corporations and restricting the slowdown of the world economy and stagflation in the problem-solving capacity of governments. In the Blue OECD world. Widespread unemployment and a renewed Sky scenario, a concerted push for regulation by the EU outbreak of sovereign debt crises in EU countries fuel and the US, coupled with the strict criminal prosecution populism and protectionism. In the Blue Sky scenario, of financial sector companies enabling tax evasion, effective international coordination provides clear signals manages to limit the problem. This revives the to markets to stop the carbon bubble from growing and International Monetary Fund with a new mandate to to shift investment flows to low-carbon projects. A oversee global financial flows while reducing the growth fundamental reform of accounting and banking regulation of income inequality and propping up government deflates the bubble, minimizing financial fallout. spending on infrastructure, social security and education. CHALLENGE 3: PEAK OIL DEMAND AND THE PETRO-STATES Julian Schwartzkopff This chapter examines how low oil prices after reaching peak oil demand could destabilize oil-dependent governments in the Middle East, Latin America and Asia. The most likely cause for a decline in oil demand is a major increase in the market penetration of electric vehicles. In the Dark Sky scenario, the failure of petro-states to diversify their economies leaves them unable to uphold the subsidy and patronage systems on which their legitimacy is built. While some turn authoritarian, others simply collapse, leading to major conflicts, instability and power shifts in the MENA region as well as Latin America, along with a major increase in terrorism and conflict refugees. In the Blue Sky scenario, early steps are taken to diversify oil economies while Western countries launch a major investment initiative in the MENA region and climate finance is fully mobilized to promote sustainable investment. In this scenario, the consequences for petro- states are still painful, but largely manageable, while increased economic interdependence promotes stability and peace. 3 LONG SHOTS AND BOLD CLAIMS: SCENARIOS ON FUTURE CHALLENGES TO THE GLOBAL ORDER CHALLENGE 4: THE RISE OF CHINA MIRRORED CHALLENGE 5: SUMMER IS COMING - WILL AN IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTE ICE-FREE ARCTIC BECOME A REGION OF COOPERATION OR CONFLICT? Fanny Ries This chapter deals with the increasing assertiveness of Stephan Hoare China in the South China Sea and its clash with the US. It This chapter outlines that the increased accessibility of analyzes different possible development paths in the resources and shipping routes in the Arctic, prompted by context of a major power shift from the West to China. In climate change, could spark a renewed conflict between the Dark Sky scenario, China moves unilaterally, Russia and the West. The Dark Sky scenario describes a leveraging its economic and military power to lay claim militarized Arctic, with unchecked extraction of resources to the South China Sea. The rift this causes between the at high environmental costs, divided into zones of world’s two largest economies inhibits international Russian and Western influence. This Arctic has become a cooperation on regional security issues and climate front in a new Cold War which has brought cooperation change, bringing to the fore the weaknesses of ASEAN between East and West to a standstill. In the Blue Sky and the UN in their current form. In the Blue Sky scenario, the Arctic becomes a region of cooperation scenario, a cooperative management of the South China where major economic benefits from free shipping routes Sea issue triggers a new era of pragmatism in and Arctic tourism are realized, where environmental international institutions that take into account China’s safeguards are jointly administered by Russia and NATO, grown influence. all while continuing tensions are effectively managed in the Arctic Council. CHALLENGE 6: THE GLOBAL INCREASE OF HYBRID CHALLENGE 7: ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE - ARE WARFARE - THE CASE OF RUSSIA’S WAR IN WE APPROACHING AN ERA OF UNTREATABLE UKRAINE GLOBAL EPIDEMICS? Ann-Sophie Gast and Salome Minesashvili Jannes Elfgen This chapter takes a look at the worrying trend of nation This chapter analyses how the projected shortage of states increasingly resorting