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SHENZHEN: the CURTAIN IS RISING Searching for Your Next Deal in China’S Hottest City COLLIERS RADAR INVESTMENT | RESEARCH | SOUTH CHINA | 3 APRIL 2019

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SHENZHEN: the CURTAIN IS RISING Searching for Your Next Deal in China’S Hottest City COLLIERS RADAR INVESTMENT | RESEARCH | SOUTH CHINA | 3 APRIL 2019 COLLIERS RADAR INVESTMENT | RESEARCH | SOUTH CHINA | 3 APRIL 2019 Daniel Shih Colliers International Senior Director | Valuation & Advisory | Hong Kong +852 2822 0654 [email protected] Joy Lam Sidley Austin LLP Partner | Hong Kong +852 2509 7894 [email protected] SHENZHEN: THE CURTAIN IS RISING Searching for your next deal in China’s hottest city COLLIERS RADAR INVESTMENT | RESEARCH | SOUTH CHINA | 3 APRIL 2019 Summary & Recommendations RMB2.4 trillion 12.8 million Under the Greater Bay Area Outline 7.6% Shenzhen had a population of 12.8 million at Development Plan, Shenzhen is one of the By 2018, Shenzhen’s GDP had reached RMB2.4 four core cities. Leveraging a rapidly the end of 2017. This should grow by 700,000 trillion (USD353 billion) with 2018’s GDP people annually over the next 3-5 years. growing economy, Shenzhen’s property growth at 7.6%, the highest among all Tier 1 market is ready to become the next cities in China and leading most major cities in gateway city for international institutional the Asia Pacific region. investors. However, a lack of properties owned by off-shore companies, very little en-bloc investment opportunities, and a Alpha – 41% limited pool of active international investors have capped Shenzhen’s In 2018, Shenzhen was ranked an Alpha minus about 41% of Shenzhen’s total GDP is derived potential. city by the Globalization and World Cities from emerging industries in 2017, which We recommend investors interested in Research Network (GaWC) for the first time, encompasses all technology-related industries Shenzhen closely follow the latest alongside San Francisco, Amsterdam and in Shenzhen. development in the office, business park Washington D.C. and long-term residential leasing markets. Source: www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/world2018t.html As Shenzhen is very sensitive to the on- going US-China trade disputes, the result Shenzhen has experienced an economic miracle in turning itself from a rural backwater town to a of the current round of negotiations could dynamic metropolis with a population of 12.8 million. The Greater Bay Area Plan and a strong economy based on innovation and technology should continue to turn Shenzhen into an international innovation affect the investment market sentiment. hub, attracting new foreign investment and talent. While Shenzhen’s property market has been Domestic landlords seeking foreign debt dominated by domestic investors, moving forward, with a growing office stock and the development of and equity investment should, according a long-term residential leasing market, we believe Shenzhen offers more opportunities for international to the current legal and regulatory institutional investors. framework, make their corporate and project structures more favorable for Daniel Shih Joy Lam incorporating foreign institutional Senior Director Partner at Sidley Austin LLP investors at the early stages of the Advisory | Hong Kong Hong Kong development cycle. This is especially true for those seeking to use Foreign Invested Kirsten Geng Allan Wardrop Real Estate Enterprises (FIREEs) to obtain Assistant Manager Partner at Sidley Austin LLP foreign capital. Advisory | Hong Kong Hong Kong 2 COLLIERS RADAR INVESTMENT | RESEARCH | SOUTH CHINA | 3 APRIL 2019 SHENZHEN REAL ESTATE: OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALL Shenzhen real estate market For domestic developers Shenzhen has been undergoing tremendous Domestic developers looking to obtain foreign growth for 40 years and is now recognized as an funding or to attract foreign investors need to Alpha- city by GaWC. Global companies have pay attention to the restrictions on the ability of leveraged Shenzhen’s manufacturing capabilities FIREEs to obtain foreign capital. and have a growing presence in R&D. While it is very rare for foreign funds to invest However, Shenzhen’s property market has been during the development process, Hong Kong dominated by domestic investors and strata-title based developers would probably prefer sites for sales. The depth of Shenzhen’s market for residential development. international investors is still lagging behind Hence, domestic developers should review their Shanghai and Beijing. corporate structure and make arrangements at The development of the GBA and the current the initial stage of land acquisition to facilitate liquidity tightening make this a good time for foreign equity or asset acquisition. international investors to enter Shenzhen, which is a new gateway city in China. For foreign investors Shenzhen’s real estate market presents both opportunities and challenges. We see great opportunities in the office, business/industrial park, and long-term residential rental markets. However, investors should be aware of the potential legal, policy and market risks. Compared to Beijing and Shanghai, there are less off-shore deals possibilities in Shenzhen. We believe the situation will change with Shenzhen’s government encouraging long-term holdings by developers and restrictions on strata-title sales. With more foreign institutional investors entering Shenzhen, the depth of liquidity would also increase in the next few years. 3 COLLIERS RADAR INVESTMENT | RESEARCH | SOUTH CHINA | 3 APRIL 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS Greater Bay Area Plan to facilitate more investment in Shenzhen 5 Why is Shenzhen the right destination to invest? 6 Shenzhen + Hong Kong 7 Exploring real estate opportunities in Shenzhen 8 Overview of real estate transaction structure in China 12 Types of investment 13 Key issues for domestic developers 16 Risks and limitations of en-bloc acquisition in Shenzhen 17 4 COLLIERS RADAR INVESTMENT | RESEARCH | SOUTH CHINA | 3 APRIL 2019 GREATER BAY AREA PLAN TO Investor interest and top three sectors of GBA cities (%) FACILITATE MORE INVESTMENT IN SHENZHEN GUANGZHOU The GBA plan has moved beyond new infrastructure and emphasises greater flows of capital, business and people among GBA cities. As a result, we 29% expect the rising interest to benefit the Shenzhen property market the most, with convenient access to capital in Hong Kong. DONGGUAN In the Colliers Annual Investor Survey 2018, Hong Kong based institutional 14% investors expressed increasing interest in the GBA, about 40% of the survey participants would like to invest in GBA cities in 2019. We believe the completion of two major infrastructure projects in Q3 2018, the Hong Kong- ZHONGSHAN Shenzhen-Guangzhou Express Rail (XRL) and the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau % Bridge (HZMB), coupled with the GBA Plan, have increasingly made the GBA 14 a more popular destination for Hong Kong based investors. However, the survey shows the number one concern for potential investors SHENZHEN in the GBA is policy and regulatory uncertainties, and the tightly regulated housing market. A lack of market knowledge and RMB-dominated 29% ZHUHAI transactions are also major factors deterring more investment in the GBA. 18% Shenzhen, Top Of The List More investors have put Shenzhen on their radar and it is the second most popular city for property investment outside of Hong Kong. Given the 59.2 million sq feet (5.5 million sq meters) of new Grade A office supply scheduled between now and 2022, we expect new investment opportunities to appear, notably in urban renewal projects and the conversion of old Residential Commercial Retail industrial zones into new business parks. Shenzhen’s government is land land property promoting the housing rental market, which will likely make this sector a new focus for investment. Logistics Office property property In the next five years, we expect Shenzhen to see an increase in the number of active foreign and Hong Kong based investors, as well as an increase in the number of transactions involving foreign investors. Source: Colliers International 5 COLLIERS RADAR INVESTMENT | RESEARCH | SOUTH CHINA | 3 APRIL 2019 WHY IS SHENZHEN THE RIGHT The rise of emerging industries to spur future growth Shenzhen's GDP growth rate was 7.6% in 2018. Emerging industries, a DESTINATION TO INVEST? classification coined by the Shenzhen government and comprised of 10 tech- related industrial sectors (including artificial intelligence (AI), internet, and Rapid economic growth momentum to continue culture & innovation, among other sectors), accounted for about 40% of total GDP; the added value of these industries increased by 11.4% yoy. Shenzhen’s strong economy has attracted global attention. In 2018, 120 of the Fortune Global 500 companies were Chinese (source: Chinese company ranking (Shenzhen based) http://fortune.com/global500/). According to Fortune Global 500, seven of these are headquartered in Shenzhen and account for 13.7% of the total Ping An Insurance profit generated by these 120 Chinese companies. Further, the Shenzhen #29 Stock Exchange is the home for more than 280 companies with total Huawai #72 aggregate assets exceeding RMB21 trillion (USD3.0 trillion). The robust growth and development of Shenzhen’s economy makes it particularly Amer International #111 attractive to overseas companies, and Shenzhen’s FDI more than doubled China Merchant Bank # between 2009 and 2018. 213 China Evergrande Group #230 Shenzhen, FDI value (billion USD) 2008 – 2018 500 Global Fortune Tencent Group #331 8 7.5 China Vanke #331 6.7 7 6.5 5.8 CaiNiao Network # 5.5 6 6 5.2 4.6 WeBank #11 5 4.2 4.3 Royole 4 3.3 #32 3 Tubatu #47 2 Fengguo #82 1 Sui Tech, Fangdd, 0 YH Global, ORBBEC, #107 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ranking Unicorn Chinese iCarbonX FDI Value (billion USD) Source: Shenzhen Statistic Bureau Source: Forbes 6 COLLIERS RADAR INVESTMENT | RESEARCH | SOUTH CHINA | 3 APRIL 2019 SHENZHEN + HONG KONG Key economic indicators, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and the GBA Shenzhen Hong Kong GBA The twin engine for the GBA DEMOGRAPHIC Shenzhen has China’s most dynamic economy with private companies constituting over 90% of registered businesses. This market dynamic has Population growth (2017) 4.6% 0.8% 2.3% helped establish Shenzhen as the region’s front runner in globalization, technological innovation and a sustainable economic base. ECONOMIC Shenzhen’s unique city position is bolstered by its synergy with Hong Kong, a GDP (RMB trillion, 2017) 2.24 2.15 10.22 global financial center, which helps draw interest from the rest of the world.
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