Introduction Approaching Japanese Religions Under Globalization

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Introduction Approaching Japanese Religions Under Globalization Journal of Religion in Japan 3 (2014) 83–95 brill.com/jrj Introduction Approaching Japanese Religions under Globalization Galen Amstutz Institute of Buddhist Studies, Berkeley, California, usa [email protected] Ugo Dessì University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany [email protected] Abstract Research on religion and globalization is revealing that religious responses to global dynamics have been highly varied, positioned across a broad spectrum that ranges from the defensive to the open and creative. However, attempts to engage this area of stud- ies in the case of Japanese religions have been unexpectedly few and fragmentary; the use of full-scale globalization theory remains underdeveloped. Sometimes an under- lying conceptual obstacle is that the dominating perspective is reduced to the dimen- sion of worldwide institutional expansion, which prevents a full engagement with the much more complex dynamics. In other cases, there may simply be resistance to the application of contemporary globalization theories to concrete case studies in religion. Possibly also some features peculiar to Japanese history have delayed the application of globalization perspectives to its religious worlds. Based on these premises the arti- cles by Inoue Nobutaka, Ugo Dessì, Galen Amstutz, Victoria Rose Montrose, Girardo Rodriguez Plasencia, Regina Yoshie Matsue, and Rafael Shoji and Frank Usarski col- lected in this special issue address several examples and themes in this diversified, complex world as part of the ongoing work of addressing our existing gaps in aware- ness. Keywords globalization – Japanese religions © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2014 | doi: 10.1163/22118349-00302001 Downloaded from Brill.com09/26/2021 10:51:05PM via free access 84 amstutz and dessì A quarter century after its massive intrusion into the public discourse, the term ‘globalization’ continues to be mainly applied to changes in the world economy. Its ubiquitous popular narrative of material change is produced and reflected by the modern media on a daily basis; given the undeniable and per- vasive impact of trade, technology and money at the grassroots level such an understanding certainly reveals a pragmatic sensibility. And yet this limited perception of globalization remains inadequate. Fundamentally, it shows itself to be ideologically driven by the idea of human society as a market—quite in contrast to the claim that our allegedly postmodern age has been charac- terized by the demise of all grand narratives. As Doreen Massey aptly puts it, such application of economism to globalization reveals a persistent conven- tional temporal conceptualization (or alternatively, radicalization of the idea of ‘flows’) rooted in the neo-liberal expectation that, in time, all societies will be inevitably drawn into a global community whose core unifying principle is economic growth. As such, this way of imagining the global, nothing other than an updated version of the linear Eurocentric story of capitalist modernity, is actually “aspatial” (Massey 1999: 29, 34); in other words a more adequate post- modern perception of ‘space’ as consisting of contingent, constructed (in that sense truly ‘spatial’) geometries of power has been missed. And yet there is a contrasting view, from a wider perspective, that such a narrow idea of globalization as simply economic transformation is partial and reductionist since it does not seriously take into account a vast array of other interrelated phenomena and dynamics in human experience. In the last two decades an increasing amount of scholarship has been insisting that dra- matic changes in the communications media and transnational mobility have ushered in a new period of global exchanges involving not only goods but also ideas and ‘culture.’ The relationships of these additional processes to a deeper understanding of globalization have come to be variously elucidated. Through the cultural turn in ‘hard’ globalization studies the new socioeco- nomic situation has been approached as “a revamped system of flexible cap- italism” expressed in cultural life; conversely, the globalization turn in ‘soft’ cultural studies has come to appreciate economic globalization’s being con- cretely “the product of inexorable and accelerated migratory cultural flows and electronic mediations beyond the space-time envelopes of the nation- state system” (Archer et al. 2007: 4). Such conceptual recognitions became apparent, for example, in even the initial approaches to globalization such as John Tomlinson’s (1999). In current sociology, it is widely acknowledged that the major contribution to this debate has been provided by the grand theory developed by Roland Robertson, in which globalization is understood in several terms: as a distinct “human-global condition” (with emphasis on Journal of Religion in Japan 3 (2014) 83–95 Downloaded from Brill.com09/26/2021 10:51:05PM via free access introduction 85 the reflexive awareness of the world as a single place); as an identifiable his- torical process originating in Europe in the fifteenth century; and lastly as accelerated processes of glocalization or local adaptation of global cultural resources (e.g., Robertson 1992, 1995). Certain ideas prefigured in early post- colonial theory were also quickly applied productively to issues of globaliza- tion and glocalization and opened the way to the already classical literature on hybridization, creolization, and global flows and -scapes (e.g., García Can- clini 1995; Nederveen Pieterse 2003; Hannerz 1996; Appadurai 1996). All the time these issues have resonated with scholars in the field of cultural studies who have been concerned about the resistance of local cultures to homoge- nization. Religious studies has not played any central role in the aforementioned theoretical developments, although religion as part of culture at large can be considered as an absent guest at the table. However, religion did make an early appearance in the debate on globalization and culture through the work of Robertson, who specifically addressed the role of religious factors in his analysis of Japanese globality (Robertson 1987). Afterwards, the most notable development of the field of religion has been found in the work of Peter Beyer, who has framed his analysis of religious change under globalization in terms of a comprehensive view of global society as analyzed via Niklas Luhmann’s theories of interaction of functionally differentiated global societal subsystems and their modes of communication (Beyer 1994). According to the anthropologist Thomas Csordas (2009: 11), the publication of Beyer’s Religion and Globalization (1994) was actually one of the main fac- tors behind the growing interest in this topic in the mid-1990s, the others being new recognition of the religious implications of the flourishing studies on glob- alization and transnationalism and the global impact of Pentecostalism. Sub- sequent research is revealing that religious responses to global dynamics have been highly varied, positioned across a broad spectrum that ranges from the defensive to the open and creative. Considerable attention has been paid to the issues of identity (Coleman and Collins 2004) and fundamentalism (Mis- ztal and Shupe 1992; Juergensmeyer 2003); otherwise religious phenomena as diverse as global Pentecostalism (Cox 1995; Dempster, Klaus and Petersen 1999), the New Age movement (Rothstein 2001), and new religious movements (Hex- ham and Poewe 1997; Clarke 2006) have offered themselves as obvious objects of study. Researchers have discovered that globalization not only may pose a threat to religion when understood as a promoter of detraditionalization, but may also offer new opportunities for growth and developing new religious forms. In view of Csordas’s observations, and combined with the association between globalization and mobility which can be intuitively recognized, it is Journal of Religion in Japan 3 (2014) 83–95 Downloaded from Brill.com09/26/2021 10:51:05PM via free access 86 amstutz and dessì no wonder that transnational religion has also become another area of consid- erable interest (Rudolph and Piscatori 1997; Ebaugh and Chafetz 2000; Csordas 2009). As concerns Japanese religions, a promising overture was presented early by Robertson’s suggestion (however limited) that Japan’s modern form of global involvement reflected embedded tendencies in religious imagination such as the inclination toward syncretism, institutionalized polytheism, and the im- portance attributed to purification rituals. Similarly, scholars such as Beyer and Shupe have occasionally integrated religion in Japan in their reflections on reli- gion and globalization (Shupe 1991; Beyer 2006). However, further attempts to engage this area of studies have been unexpectedly few and fragmentary. Among the exceptions, the Japanese scholar Inoue Nobutaka 井上順孝, who also contributes to this volume, has been investigating the impact of the infor- mation age upon the development of new religious movements in Japan in various articles since the early 1990s (Inoue 1990, 1997, 2007). The anthropolo- gist Miyanaga Kuniko 宮永国子 has focused on Sekai Mahikari Bunmei Kyōdan 世界真光文明教団 to show how rituals, with their repetitive focus on the body and the creation of narratives, facilitate integration and provide options for countering the identity crisis induced by globalization (Miyanaga 2000). In a similar vein, Satō Takehiro’s 佐藤壮広 research on Okinawan shamans shows how the reshaping of local identities occurring at the level
Recommended publications
  • French Journal of Japanese Studies, 4 | 2015, « Japan and Colonization » [En Ligne], Mis En Ligne Le 01 Janvier 2015, Consulté Le 08 Juillet 2021
    Cipango - French Journal of Japanese Studies English Selection 4 | 2015 Japan and Colonization Édition électronique URL : https://journals.openedition.org/cjs/949 DOI : 10.4000/cjs.949 ISSN : 2268-1744 Éditeur INALCO Référence électronique Cipango - French Journal of Japanese Studies, 4 | 2015, « Japan and Colonization » [En ligne], mis en ligne le 01 janvier 2015, consulté le 08 juillet 2021. URL : https://journals.openedition.org/cjs/949 ; DOI : https://doi.org/10.4000/cjs.949 Ce document a été généré automatiquement le 8 juillet 2021. Cipango - French Journal of Japanese Studies is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. 1 SOMMAIRE Introduction Arnaud Nanta and Laurent Nespoulous Manchuria and the “Far Eastern Question”, 1880‑1910 Michel Vié The Beginnings of Japan’s Economic Hold over Colonial Korea, 1900-1919 Alexandre Roy Criticising Colonialism in pre‑1945 Japan Pierre‑François Souyri The History Textbook Controversy in Japan and South Korea Samuel Guex Imperialist vs Rogue. Japan, North Korea and the Colonial Issue since 1945 Adrien Carbonnet Cipango - French Journal of Japanese Studies, 4 | 2015 2 Introduction Arnaud Nanta and Laurent Nespoulous 1 Over one hundred years have now passed since the Kingdom of Korea was annexed by Japan in 1910. It was inevitable, then, that 2010 would be an important year for scholarship on the Japanese colonisation of Korea. In response to this momentous anniversary, Cipango – Cahiers d’études japonaises launched a call for papers on the subject of Japan’s colonial past in the spring of 2009. 2 Why colonisation in general and not specifically relating to Korea? Because it seemed logical to the journal’s editors that Korea would be the focus of increased attention from specialists of East Asia, at the risk of potentially forgetting the longer—and more obscure—timeline of the colonisation process.
    [Show full text]
  • The Rise of Nationalism in Millennial Japan
    W&M ScholarWorks Undergraduate Honors Theses Theses, Dissertations, & Master Projects 5-2010 Politics Shifts Right: The Rise of Nationalism in Millennial Japan Jordan Dickson College of William and Mary Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.wm.edu/honorstheses Part of the Asian Studies Commons Recommended Citation Dickson, Jordan, "Politics Shifts Right: The Rise of Nationalism in Millennial Japan" (2010). Undergraduate Honors Theses. Paper 752. https://scholarworks.wm.edu/honorstheses/752 This Honors Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses, Dissertations, & Master Projects at W&M ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Undergraduate Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of W&M ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Politics Shifts Right: The Rise of Nationalism in Millennial Japan A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Bachelors of Arts in Global Studies from The College of William and Mary by Jordan Dickson Accepted for High Honors Professor Rachel DiNitto, Director Professor Hiroshi Kitamura Professor Eric Han 1 Introduction In the 1990s, Japan experienced a series of devastating internal political, economic and social problems that changed the landscape irrevocably. A sense of national panic and crisis was ignited in 1995 when Japan experienced the Great Hanshin earthquake and the Aum Shinrikyō attack, the notorious sarin gas attack in the Tokyo subway. These disasters came on the heels of economic collapse, and the nation seemed to be falling into a downward spiral. The Japanese lamented the decline of traditional values, social hegemony, political awareness and engagement.
    [Show full text]
  • The History Problem: the Politics of War
    History / Sociology SAITO … CONTINUED FROM FRONT FLAP … HIRO SAITO “Hiro Saito offers a timely and well-researched analysis of East Asia’s never-ending cycle of blame and denial, distortion and obfuscation concerning the region’s shared history of violence and destruction during the first half of the twentieth SEVENTY YEARS is practiced as a collective endeavor by both century. In The History Problem Saito smartly introduces the have passed since the end perpetrators and victims, Saito argues, a res- central ‘us-versus-them’ issues and confronts readers with the of the Asia-Pacific War, yet Japan remains olution of the history problem—and eventual multiple layers that bind the East Asian countries involved embroiled in controversy with its neighbors reconciliation—will finally become possible. to show how these problems are mutually constituted across over the war’s commemoration. Among the THE HISTORY PROBLEM THE HISTORY The History Problem examines a vast borders and generations. He argues that the inextricable many points of contention between Japan, knots that constrain these problems could be less like a hang- corpus of historical material in both English China, and South Korea are interpretations man’s noose and more of a supportive web if there were the and Japanese, offering provocative findings political will to determine the virtues of peaceful coexistence. of the Tokyo War Crimes Trial, apologies and that challenge orthodox explanations. Written Anything less, he explains, follows an increasingly perilous compensation for foreign victims of Japanese in clear and accessible prose, this uniquely path forward on which nationalist impulses are encouraged aggression, prime ministerial visits to the interdisciplinary book will appeal to sociol- to derail cosmopolitan efforts at engagement.
    [Show full text]
  • The Problem of Moral Statements in Historical Writing
    Montclair State University Montclair State University Digital Commons Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects 5-2012 The rP oblem of Moral Statements in Historical Writing Alexandra Katherine Perry Montclair State University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.montclair.edu/etd Part of the Education Commons, and the History Commons Recommended Citation Perry, Alexandra Katherine, "The rP oblem of Moral Statements in Historical Writing" (2012). Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects. 20. https://digitalcommons.montclair.edu/etd/20 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by Montclair State University Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects by an authorized administrator of Montclair State University Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE PROBLEM OF MORAL STATEMENTS IN HISTORICAL WRITING A DISSERTATION Submitted to the Faculty of Montclair State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Education by ALEXANDRA KATHERINE PERRY Montclair State University Upper Montclair, NJ 2012 Dissertation Chair: Dr. Jaime Grinberg Copyright © 2012 by Alexandra Katherine Perry. All rights reserved. ABSTRACT THE PROBLEM OF MORAL STATEMENTS IN HISTORICAL WRITING by Alexandra Katherine Perry Bernard Williams (1985) begins his skeptical look at the history of ethical theory with a reminder of where it began, with Socrates’ question, "how should one live?" (pg. 1). This question is relevant to historians, who ask a similar question, “how did people live?” in their own work, To wonder “how one should live” or to make statements about the ways in which people have lived is to rely on the work of historians.
    [Show full text]
  • A New Era in the Study of Global History Is Born but It Needs to Be Nurtured
    [JCH 5.1-2 (2018–19)] JCH (print) ISSN 2051-9672 https://doi.org/10.1558/jch.39422 JCH (online) ISSN 2051-9680 A New Era in the Study of Global History is Born but It Needs to be Nurtured Harvey Whitehouse1 University of Oxford, UK Email: [email protected] (corresponding author) Peter Turchin2 University of Connecticut Email: [email protected] (corresponding author) Pieter François3, Patrick E. Savage4, Thomas E. Currie5, Kevin C. Feeney6, Enrico Cioni7, Rosalind Purcell8, Robert M. Ross9, Jennifer Larson10, John Baines11, Barend ter Haar12, R. Alan Covey13 Abstract: Thisa rticle is a response to Slingerland e t al. who criticize the quality of the data from Seshat: Global History Databank utilized in our Nature paper entitled “Complex Societies Precede Moralizing Gods throughout World History”. Their cri- tique centres around the roles played by research assistants and experts in procuring and curating data, periodization structure, and so-called “data pasting” and “data fill- ing”. We show that these criticisms are based on misunderstandings or misrepresenta- tions of the methods used by Seshat researchers. Overall, Slingerland et al.’s critique (which is crosslinked online here) does not call into question any of our main findings, but it does highlight various shortcomings of Slingerland et al.’s database project. Our collective efforts to code and quantify features of global history hold out the promise of a new era in the study of global history but only if critique can be conducted con- structively in good faith and both the benefitsa nd the pitfalls of open science fully recognized.
    [Show full text]
  • Tim Yamamura Dissertation Final
    UC Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Science Fiction Futures and the Ocean as History: Literature, Diaspora, and the Pacific War Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3j87r1ck Author Yamamura, Tim Publication Date 2014 License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ 4.0 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SANTA CRUZ SCIENCE FICTION FUTURES AND THE OCEAN AS HISTORY: LITERATURE, DIASPORA, AND THE PACIFIC WAR A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in LITERATURE by Timothy Jitsuo Yamamura December 2014 The Dissertation of Tim Yamamura is approved: __________________________________________ Professor Rob Wilson, chair __________________________________________ Professor Karen Tei Yamashita __________________________________________ Professor Christine Hong __________________________________________ Professor Noriko Aso __________________________________________ Professor Alan Christy ________________________________ Tyrus Miller Vice Provost and Dean of Graduate Studies © 2014 Tim Yamamura All rights reserved Table of Contents Abstract iv Acknowledgements vi Introduction: Science Fiction and the Perils of Prophecy: Literature, 1 Diasporic “Aliens,” and the “Origins” of the Pacific War Chapter 1: Far Out Worlds: American Orientalism, Alienation, and the 49 Speculative Dialogues of Percival Lowell and Lafcadio Hearn Chapter
    [Show full text]
  • 1 the Cambridge History of Japan
    THE CAMBRIDGE HISTORY OF JAPAN; An assessment Alan Macfarlane (This is the rough, lengthy (30,000 words), rough draft of a review written in 1993-4 of the last four volumes of the Cambridge History of Japan. It contains a considerable amount of material left out of the subsequently published article, ‘”Japan” in an English Mirror’ published in Modern Asian Studies and also available on this web-site. Please note that the spelling of Japanese names and the quotations have not been checked, so it should be used with caution.) Contents: 1. Introduction 1 2. Part one: The roots of economic growth in Japan and England 4 3. Part two: Background factors in English and Japanese development. 24 4. Part three: Some institutional factors behind Japanese and English growth 39 5. Bibliography 53 Introduction; the Weberian problem and the comparative method It has long been realized that there are certain benefits to be gained from two, three or multiple-way comparisons of Japanese history and society and so this attempt fits into a venerable tradition. Before the war, the Japanese economic historian XXX, explicitly and at length compared Japan to Europe. Since then there have been numerous books and essays. If we start with two-way comparisons, the most obvious comparison has been between Japan and China: a good example of this is Moulder, Japan, China and the modern world economy (CUP, 1977), which itself, in note p. ,links numerous previous attempts to undertake such comparisons. The well-known work of Chie Nakane (ref. XXX) is mostly implicitly, but sometimes explicitly a comparison of Japan and India.
    [Show full text]
  • Imperial Japan's Human Experiments Before and During World War Two
    University of Central Florida STARS Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 2013 Imperial Japan's Human Experiments Before And During World War Two Alan Vanderbrook University of Central Florida Part of the History Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Masters Thesis (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STARS Citation Vanderbrook, Alan, "Imperial Japan's Human Experiments Before And During World War Two" (2013). Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019. 2589. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd/2589 IMPERIAL JAPAN’S HUMAN EXPERIMENTS BEFORE AND DURING WORLD WAR TWO by ALAN JAY VANDERBROOK B.A. University of Central Florida, 2009 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the Department of History in the College of Arts and Humanities at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Spring Term 2013 ABSTRACT After Japan occupied Manchuria in 1931, Ishii Shiro created Unit 731 and began testing biological weapons on unwilling human test subjects. The history of Imperial Japan’s human experiments was one in which Ishii and Unit 731 was the principal actor, but Unit 731 operated in a much larger context. The network in which 731 operated consisted of Unit 731 and all its sub-units, nearly every major Japanese university, as well as many people in Japan’s scientific and medical community, military hospitals, military and civilian laboratories, and the Japanese military as a whole.
    [Show full text]
  • From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano: Catálogo de revistas en línea The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics La evolución de la historia económica desde 1950: de cliometría hasta cliodinámica Javier Mejía Universidad de los Andes* http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4815-8942 [email protected] Fecha de recepción: 10 de junio de 2015 Fecha de aceptación: 20 de octubre de 2015 Sugerencia de citación: Mejia, J. (2015). The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics. tiempo&economía, 2(2), 79-103 Abstract This paper analyzes the evolution of economic history in the last 65 years. It argues that eco- nomic history has followed a path that goes from the strictly use of standard economics applied to economic past (i.e. cliometrics), to a general formal reflection of social history based on more flexible tools (i.e. cliodynamics). While cliometrics was a paradigm based on neoclassical theory and econometric methods, cliodynamics is a research agenda founded in non-neoclassical theoretical frameworks and quantitative methods not based on statistical inference. In that sen- se, the paper supports the idea that economic history has maintained its relevance in econo- mics literature, despite the decay of particular traditions in the field. Keywords: cliodynamics, cliometrics, Economic history. JEL Codes: B2, B4, N01, O1 * The author is grateful to Andrés Álvarez for his valuable comments. tiempo&economía Vol. 2 N° 2 - II semestre de 2015 pp. 79-103 80 The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics Resumen Este artículo analiza la evolución de la historia económica en los últimos 65 años.
    [Show full text]
  • ARTS3218 Japanese History
    ARTS3218 Japanese History: Modern Miracles and Mythologies Term Three // 2020 School of Humanities and Languages // UNSW Arts Social Sciences ARTS3218 Term 3, 2020 published at 03-08-2020 // © University of New South Wales, 2020 1 Course Overview Staff Contact Details Convenors Name Email Availability Location Phone Dr Sally McLaren [email protected] via email School Contact Information School of Humanities and Languages Location: School Office, Morven Brown Building, Level 2, 258 Opening Hours: Monday - Friday, 9am - 5pm Phone: +61 2 9385 1681 Fax: +61 2 9385 8705 Email: [email protected] ARTS3218 Term 3, 2020 published at 03-08-2020 // © University of New South Wales, 2020 2 Course Details Credit Points 6 Summary of the Course The course explores modern Japanese History from the imperial restoration of 1868 to after the Pacific War from an interdisciplinary perspective. It focuses on Japanese cultural, social and gender history. In it, you will learn about marginalised groups and movements of resistance; the 'new Japanese woman', café culture and sexwork from the 'roaring twenties'; prewar radical literature; and postwar popular culture. Political history topics include western-style modernisation and its discontents; nationalism and the emperor-system ideology; as well as Japan's wars and empire. A central theme is the ambivalent nature of progress (Japan's modern 'miracles' and their 'down-sides'), and contending representations of Japan and its place in Asia and the modern world. Course Learning Outcomes 1. Demonstrate knowledge of the history of modern Japan. 2. Analyse modern Japanese history through the lens of gender and feminist scholarship.
    [Show full text]
  • Toward Cliodynamics •fi an Analytical, Predictive Science Of
    UC Riverside Cliodynamics Title Toward Cliodynamics – an Analytical, Predictive Science of History Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/82s3p5hj Journal Cliodynamics, 2(1) Author Turchin, Peter Publication Date 2011 DOI 10.21237/C7clio21210 Peer reviewed eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California Cliodynamics: the Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History Toward Cliodynamics – an Analytical, Predictive Science of History Peter Turchin University of Connecticut This article responds to those who think that a science of history is in principle impossible. First, I tackle the issue of prediction and point out that it is not limited to forecasting the future. Scientific prediction is also (an much more usefully) employed in empirical tests of scientific theories. Next, I switch from conceptual to empirical issues, and review evidence for general empirical regularities. I also discuss some recent examples of using scientific prediction in testing theories about historical dynamics. I conclude by pointing out that we now have the right quantitative tools and, even more important, a growing corpus of historical data for testing theories. An analytical, predictive history, or cliodynamics, is eminently possible. Introduction Philosophers have long debated whether history can be a science in the same sense that physics and biology are sciences. At the heart of the debate are two opposing views of history. Nineteenth century thinkers, such as Leo Tolstoy and Carl von Clausewitz (see Gaddis, this volume), believed that historical process was governed by some kind of general laws. Many French and English historians of the nineteenth century viewed history as a science [42]. Twentieth century historians such as Toynbee [31] proposed grand schemes to account for the rise, the flowering, and the decline of civilizations.
    [Show full text]
  • 2011-12 Newsletter
    East Asian Studies Department and Program Newsletter 2011-12 The newsletter of Princeton University’s East Asian Studies Department and Program is published annually in September by the East Asian Studies Program and is also available online. Unless otherwise stated, all activities reported are sponsored and orga- nized by the East Asian Studies Program or Department, either solely or in collaboration with other departments or programs on campus. News and comments are welcome and should be addressed to the Program Coordinator. Design/Editorial: Beate Witzler Email: [email protected] Phone: 609.258.9350 Fax: 609.258.2099 Photo Credits: Cover image of Jones Hall taken by Brandon Ermita. Haniwa tomb figure ca. 6th century Japan on p. 6 courtesy of Princeton University Art Museum, museum purchase with funds given by Duane E. Wilder, Class of 1951 [y1992 2], photo by Bruce M. White. Image of Buddha wall at Beihai Park in Beijing on p. 21 by Cara Healey. Crescent Moon Lake, Dunhuang, Gansu Province on p. 24 by Richard Kent. Drathang Bodhisattva, 12c. Tibet, on p. 25 by Stephen F. Teiser. Upwards, Seoul, South Korea, on p. 27 by Chloe Ferguson ‘13. 2010 photo contest of the Office of International Programs. Apsara on p. 29 by Ben Elman. Phiyang, 11c. Library, Tibet, on p. 34 by Stephen F. Teiser. The Path on the Wall, Beijing, China, by Sarah Sims ‘11. 2010 photo contest of the Office of International Programs. Tokyo tower on p. 39 by Cara Healey. Shang Dynasty bronze axe, Qingzhou, on back page by Stephen F. Teiser. Contents: Director’s Letter 3 Department and Program News 4 Undergraduates 9 Graduate Students 14 Fellows and Visitors 20 Faculty 21 Program Events 26 Associated Programs 29 Research Projects & Conferences 31 Library News 34 Alumni 35 Director’s Letter September 2011 The mission of the Program is to support teaching and research about China, Korea, and Japan throughout the uni- versity.
    [Show full text]