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From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano: Catálogo de revistas en línea The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics La evolución de la historia económica desde 1950: de cliometría hasta cliodinámica Javier Mejía Universidad de los Andes* http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4815-8942 [email protected] Fecha de recepción: 10 de junio de 2015 Fecha de aceptación: 20 de octubre de 2015 Sugerencia de citación: Mejia, J. (2015). The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics. tiempo&economía, 2(2), 79-103 Abstract This paper analyzes the evolution of economic history in the last 65 years. It argues that eco- nomic history has followed a path that goes from the strictly use of standard economics applied to economic past (i.e. cliometrics), to a general formal reflection of social history based on more flexible tools (i.e. cliodynamics). While cliometrics was a paradigm based on neoclassical theory and econometric methods, cliodynamics is a research agenda founded in non-neoclassical theoretical frameworks and quantitative methods not based on statistical inference. In that sen- se, the paper supports the idea that economic history has maintained its relevance in econo- mics literature, despite the decay of particular traditions in the field. Keywords: cliodynamics, cliometrics, Economic history. JEL Codes: B2, B4, N01, O1 * The author is grateful to Andrés Álvarez for his valuable comments. tiempo&economía Vol. 2 N° 2 - II semestre de 2015 pp. 79-103 80 The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics Resumen Este artículo analiza la evolución de la historia económica en los últimos 65 años. Se argu- menta que la historia económica ha pasado de un paradigma caracterizado por aplicar la eco- nomía estándar al pasado (cliometría) a reflexiones más generales sobre la historia social, basa- das en herramientas más flexibles (cliodinámica). Mientras la cliometríra se basaba en la teoría neoclásica y los métodos econométricos, la cliodinámica parte de marcos teóricos no neoclá- sicos y métodos diferentes a la inferencia estadística. Con esto, este artículo respalda la idea de que la historia económica, a pesar de la decadencia de tradiciones particulares dentro de ella, ha mantenido su relevancia en economía. Palabras clave: cliodinámica, cliometría, historia económica. Códigos JEL: B2, B4, N01, O1 81 Javier Mejía Introduction There are plenty of studies reviewing the evolution of economic history. Almost all of them focus in the emergence and decadence of cliometrics.1 Nevertheless, that evolution followed a more complex path, full of divergences and interactions with other disciplines and approaches. This paper presents and analyzes that path, showing how economic history has evolved over the last 65 years. This paper does not pretend to be a survey on the field, it rather pretends to propose a re- flection based on the seminal literature. Moreover, its attention focuses on the economic his- tory within mainstream economics. Therefore, it lays aside the evolution of other intellectual traditions that were interested in economic history and were important in other contexts. For instance, we mention just obliquely Annales, Marxist and Structuralist schools. Those were tra- ditions highly concerned on economic history and were quite influential in several regions, but remained peripheral for mainstream economics. The paper tries to show that, against what many authors suggest,2 economic history never passed through a decline stage. Its path is better defined as the succession of four major steps. The first one was an initial scientific revolution that generated the emergence of cliometrics. Then, cliometrics became the dominant paradigm. In a third stage, cliometrics collapsed as paradigm, and different branches of economic history emerged, some of which would reach mainstream discussions in economics. Finally, nowadays all those branches seem to converge into a new paradigm, namely cliodynamics (see diagram 1). Diagram 1. The path of economic history. 1950-2015. Decline of Cliometric Consolidation of Cliometrics/ Convergence to Revolution Cliometrics Fragmentation of Cliodynamics (?) Economic History Cliometric Revolution Despite the existence of some predecessors, the literature has well defined the inception of Cliometrics as a “revolution”, started in the mid-1950s in the American faculties of economics, in particular, at Purdue University. It was a revolution regarding the dominant way of treating history in the Anglosphere until then. The conflict between new economic history (as also was known cliometrics) and old economic history was not trivial and had ancient roots. 1 The surveys on the subject began quite early. Just for mention the most important authors, North (1965, 1974), Davis (1966), Fogel (1966), Scheiber (1967), McClelland (1973) presented general balances of the field in the proximity of the Cliometric Revolution. 2 See Whaples (2010), Hoffman (2010) and Boldizzoni (2011). tiempo&economía Vol. 2 N° 2 - II semestre de 2015 p. 81 82 The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics Economic history, by the 1940, was a field dominated by the inheritors of the German his- torical school.3 The German school, which main figure in the Anglophone academic environ- ment was Gustav von Schmoller, emphasized the role of history as the key source of knowledge about human actions and economic matters. An important part of their philosophy about so- cial dynamics was that economic relations were culture-specific, and hence not generalizable over space and time. Therefore, the German school rejected the universal validity of economic theories. In accordance to this, they were in favor of a method based on empirical and historical analysis instead of logic and mathematics (Shionoya, 2005). In contrast with the old economic historians and its German-historical foundations, the new generation of cliometricians had a complete opposite intellectual heritage, which privileged theory and generalized analysis of society. These were young academics trained in neoclassical economics,4 which, as we will see later, based their interpretation of society in general principles, valid throughout space and time. They sustained that the “old economic history” was riddled with errors in economic reasoning and embodied an inadequate approach to causal explanation. Cliometricians insisted in a scientific approach to economic-historical questions; a careful specification of explicit models of the phenomena under analysis (Lyons et al., 2008). In this context, before the arrival of cliometrics, the usage of general theories for approach- ing historical phenomena was completely rejected by scholars. Therefore, the efforts in the sub- ject were destined to fail. Maybe the most famous call for more theory in economic history, that had virtually none echo by the time, was an address of Eli Heckscher (1929) to the International Historical Congress at Oslo, entitled A Plea for Theory in Economic History. In that address, for in- stance, Herckscher pointed out that ignorance of the most basic economic theory by econom- ic historians had led to the absurd proposition that the Roman Empire declined because it had become so large that it had ceased to have any foreign trade (Findlay, 1998). Some sporadic attempts in the same line were made by Clark (1942) and, in particular, by Kemmerer in the sixth annual meeting of the Economic History Association, at Baltimore in 1946. Even then, in the proximity of the Cliometric Revolution, the academic environment was pretty hostile to these approaches (see Kirkland, 1949). On the other hand, the usage of quantitative analysis was a not so radical innovation of the Cliometric Revolution. At least one generation before the cliometric revolutionaries, the eco- nomic historians began to have interest in measurement. In the decade of 1940s quantitative analysis was already a generalized practice in the field, as Heaton (1942) suggested: 3 The particular way in which the German Historical School influenced the dominant economic history varied through regions; in Britain it was pretty direct. For instance, William Ashley, first president of the Economic History Society at its founding in 1926, was a declared follower of Schmoller. In the United States that influ- ence was rather indirect, via the institutional school (Wright, 2001). 4 Throughout the text it would be used the definition of neoclassical economics offered by Colander (2000). For Colander neoclassical economics was characterized by the following 6 features: focusing on allocation of resources at a given moment in time; accepting some variation of utilitarianism as playing a central role in understanding the economy; focusing on marginal tradeoffs; assuming farsighted rationality; accepting methodological individualism; being structured around a general equilibrium conception of the economy. He makes and effort in differentiate neoclassical economics of modern mainstream economics, that would be also an important conceptual issue in this paper. 83 Javier Mejía The use of statistics is no new thing to economic historians, but the urge to mea- sure movements, growths, groups, and institutions and to answer such questions as How much? How many? How quickly? Or how representative? Is perhaps the out- standing characteristic of our generation. (Heaton, 1942,
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