Evaporation Estimates from Nasser Lake, Egypt, Based on Three Floating Station Data and Bowen Ratio Energy Budget
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View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Lirias Theor Appl Climatol (2010) 100:439–465 DOI 10.1007/s00704-009-0168-z ORIGINAL PAPER Evaporation estimates from Nasser Lake, Egypt, based on three floating station data and Bowen ratio energy budget Mohamed Elsawwaf & Patrick Willems & Andrea Pagano & Jean Berlamont Received: 15 January 2009 /Accepted: 26 June 2009 /Published online: 26 August 2009 # Springer-Verlag 2009 Abstract Nasser Lake is located in a hyper-arid region in conducted based on quasi-Monte Carlo sequences (Latin the south of Egypt. Evaporation is by far the most Hypercube sampling). The standard deviation of the total important factor in explaining the water losses from the uncertainty on the BREB evaporation rate was found to be lake. To obtain better management scenarios for Nasser 0.62 mm day−1. The parameter controlling the change in Lake, an accurate estimation of the lake evaporation losses stored energy, followed by the BR parameter, was found to be thus is essential. This paper presents an update of previous the most sensitive parameters. Several of the six conventional evaporation estimates, making use of local meteorological methods showed substantial bias when compared with the and hydrological data collected from instrumented plat- BREB method. These were modified to eliminate the bias. forms (floating weather stations) at three locations on the When compared to the BREB-based values, the Penman lake: at Raft, Allaqi, and Abusembel (respectively at 2, 75, method showed most favorably for the daily time scale, while and 280 km upstream of the Aswan High Dam). Results for the monthly scale, the Priestley–Taylor and the deBruin– from six conventional evaporation quantification methods Keijman methods showed best agreement. Differences in were compared with the values obtained by the Bowen ratio mean evaporation estimates of these methods (against the energy budget method (BREB). The results of the BREB BREB method) were found to be in the range 0.14 and method showed that there is no significant difference 0.36 mm day−1. All estimates were based calculations at the between the evaporation rates at Allaqi and Abusembel. daily time scale covering a 10-year period (1995–2004). At Raft, higher evaporation rates were obtained, which were assumed to be overestimated due to the high uncertainty of the Bowen ratio (BR) parameter. The average 1 Introduction BR value at Allaqi and Abusembel was used to eliminate this overestimates evaporation. Variance-based sensitivity Nasser Lake is located in the lower Nile River Basin at the and uncertainty analyses on the BREB results were border between Egypt and Sudan at 182 m above mean sea level (amsl; Fig. 1). The lake was created from the late 1960s to the 1970s together with the construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD) upstream of the old Aswan dam, M. Elsawwaf (*) : P. Willems : J. Berlamont about 5 km south of the city of Aswan. The AHD created a Hydraulics Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, multi-purpose storage reservoir to provide adequate water Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, supply in summer, hydropower, flood protection, and Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, improved river navigation. The lake has an area of about 3001 Heverlee, Belgium 2 e-mail: [email protected] 6,540 km and a length of about 500 km, 350 km of which lies in Egypt and 150 km in Sudan. The lake has an average A. Pagano width of about 10 km, a maximum width of about 60 km, Econometrics and Applied Statistics Unit, an average depth of 25 m, and a maximum depth of about EC Joint Research Centre, 9 3 Via Fermi 2749, 90. The total capacity of the reservoir is 162.3×10 m at its 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy highest water level (Sadek et al. 1997; Omar and El-Bakry 440 M. Elsawwaf et al. clear, resulting in massive storage of solar energy in a Aswan High Dam considerably greater volume. The bulk temperature of the Raft station lake (the temperature below about half a meter) will fluctuate to a small degree over the course of a day and the evaporation rate will change correspondingly. Methods that use only net radiation to estimate evaporation rates must fail because net radiation is not providing the energy required for evaporation. For example, these models will Allaqi station predict a small or zero evaporation rate at night since the net radiation is small. Over a water body at night, the evaporation rate is in fact nearly as large as it is during the Western Desert day. Even on a daily or weekly basis, conventional methods based on net radiation will not work well. For example, between June and September, the lake temperature will rise Eastern Desert significantly as an extremely large amount of energy is stored in the water. Methods that use the net radiation will Abusembel station Egypt assume that all of the available energy is going into sensible or latent energy, yet a significant portion is used to warm the Arqeen station lake. On a daily basis, the overestimation of evaporation is Egypt-Sudan border not large but consistently, which might lead to large errors when the evaporation rates are aggregated over longer time periods. Similarly in the fall, when the lake cools, these N Aswan High Dam Sudan methods will underestimate the evaporation rates. Working FS Accounting for the above considerations, observational FS under setting up studies of lake evaporation have used a variety of different methods to estimate evaporation rates. These include the Fig. 1 Location map of the Nasser Lake area showing the floating Bowen ratio energy budget (BREB) method and eddy- stations (FS) sites and the major physical features of Nasser Lake correlation techniques, the water-budget method, methods of the so-called Dalton group such as the bulk aerodynamic method, the methods in the so-called combination group 1981). For many years, the Egyptian Ministry of Water such as the Penman, Priestley–Taylor, and deBruin–Keijman − Resources and Irrigation adopted the figure of 7.54 mm day 1 methods, and the methods in the temperature group such as as the annual mean evaporation rate with a maximum value the Papadakis method among others (Lenters et al. 2005; − in June of 10.8 mm day 1 and a minimum in December of Winter 1981;Winteretal.1995). Another method that is − 3.95 mm day 1 (Whittington and Guariso 1983). used in numerous studies is the mass transfer method (e.g., Evaporation from open-water bodies is quite different Yu and Knapp 1985; Ikebuchi et al. 1988; Laird and from these above-land surfaces (Eichinger et al. 2003). The Kristovich 2002) because of its ease of application and sun’s energy penetrates the water to depths of as much as suitability for modeling (e.g., Hostetler and Bartlein 1990; 30 m in clear water, somewhat less in turbid water, and is Blodgett et al. 1997; Lenters et al. 2005). The water-budget stored throughout the water column (Eichinger et al. 2003). method (e.g., Myrup et al. 1979) can potentially provide a The water column is mixed by surface motion and becomes most reliable estimate of evaporation, as long as each water- the source of energy that drives evaporation (Eichinger et budget component is accurately measured or modeled, which al. 2003). Because of the large heat storage capacity of is often a difficult task, especially for the groundwater losses − water (1.006×106 Jm3) and the fact that water is (Lenters et al. 2005). In general, however, the BREB and approximately 1,000 times more dense than air, the eddy-correlation techniques are considered to be the most temperature of deep, clear, water bodies does not change accurate methods, albeit at the cost of additional, high- significantly throughout the day when compared to the quality instrumentation data (Lenters et al. 2005; Rosenberry atmosphere (Eichinger et al. 2003). The amount of et al. 2007; Winter 1981). As reported by Sene et al. (1991) available energy at the surface is nearly constant throughout and Stannard and Rosenberry (1991), except for a recent the day and night, leading to a nearly constant evaporation study by Blanken et al. (2000), most applications of the rate. The water in Nasser Lake lies between the two eddy-correlation technique have been limited to applications extremes of a clear water body and a land surface (desert). with short-term data series. The energy-budget method is being The lake is deep over much of its area and is relatively the preferred technique for evaporation estimation based on Evaporation estimates from Nasser Lake, Egypt 441 accurate, long-term monitoring data (Winter et al. 2003; evaporation studies for Nasser Lake applied conventional Lenters et al. 2005; among others). methods, except Omar and El-Bakry (1981) and Sadek et Despite this preference, few BREB-based lake evaporation al. (1997), who also applied the BREB method, but with studies based on long-term data series (at least 5 years) very limited data. All previous studies relied on ground are found. Lenters et al. (2005) presented a comprehensive, station data, except the Omar and El-Bakry (1981) study. 10-year BREB-based analysis of seasonal, intraseasonal, and The evaporation estimates by Sadek et al. (1997) have a interannual variations in lake evaporation for the Sparkling rather narrow range, from 5.70 to 7.05 mm day−1 (3.25 Lake in Northern Wisconsin (USA). Other BREB-based billion m3 difference at its highest water level), or only studies have been conducted by Robertson and Barry (1985) slightly above 4% of the natural annual Nile flow at the for the Perch Lake in Ontario (Canada), also based on AHD (84 billion m3).