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Haitong Securities 6837 HK BNP PARIBAS Judy Zhang

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Haitong Securities 6837 HK BNP PARIBAS Judy Zhang Haitong Securities 6837 HK BNP PARIBAS Judy Zhang 27 APRIL 2016 RESULTS FLASH HAITONG SECURITIES 6837 HK CHINA / DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS HOW WE DIFFER FROM CONSENSUS MARKET RECS TARGET PRICE HKD18.20 TARGET PRICE (%) 14.5 POSITIVE 12 BUY UP/DOWNSIDE +37.5% EPS 2017 (%) 23.5 NEUTRAL 4 CLOSE HKD13.24 EPS 2018 (%) (25.8) NEGATIVE 0 Disappointing result on weak market KEY STOCK DATA YE Dec (RMB m) 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E NPAT down 57.2% y-y in 1Q16 Operating Profit 10,420 19,616 17,949 22,417 NPAT was down 57.2% y-y in 1Q16 to RMB1.75b, or 13.8% of the Rec. net profit 7,711 14,296 13,363 16,626 BBG FY16 consensus estimate. Weakness was seen across Recurring EPS (RMB) 0.80 1.24 1.16 1.45 business segments, including brokerage, prop trading and lending. EPS growth (%) 91.1 54.5 (6.5) 24.4 1Q16 ROA of 1.2% and ROE of 6.5% were down from 3.3% and Recurring P/E (x) 13.8 8.9 9.5 7.7 18.1% respectively in 4Q15. Despite the weak result, we think HTS’ valuation (1.11x FY16E P/B and 9.5x FY16 P/E) still presents the Dividend yield (%) 2.7 4.2 3.9 4.9 best risk/reward among brokers we cover. Price/book (x) 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.0 ROE (%) 11.9 16.3 12.1 13.8 Key positives: IBD and other operating income ROA (%) 3.11 3.18 2.17 2.43 1) Investment banking income: up 102.3% y-y to RMB1.1b in Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 1Q16, mainly due to the strong bond underwriting business (total 26 35 bond underwriting amount was up 2,329.2% y-y to RMB61.9b in 22 15 1Q16); 2) Other operating income: up 92.5% y-y to RMB758m in 18 (5) 1Q16, thanks to the strong revenue growth of subsidiaries. 14 (25) 10 (45) (HKD) (%) Key negatives: brokerage, prop trading, lending, CIR & leverage Haitong Securities Rel to MSCI China 1) Brokerage: Brokerage commission fell 35.2% y-y in 1Q16, partially due to contracting A-share market turnover (-22.6% y-y), Share price performance 1 Month 3 Month 12 Month with ADT down from RMB722b in 1Q15 to RMB540b in 1Q16. In Absolute (%) 3.9 20.8 (49.1) addition, we estimate the average commission rate of the company Relative to country (%) 0.2 6.8 (24.4) was down 17.4% q-q in 1Q16. We expect the downward pressure on Mkt cap (USD m) 19,633 commission rate to continue, given the rapid development of internet 3m avg daily turnover (USD m) 30.9 brokerage and relaxation of the “one person, multiple accounts” policy; 2) Prop trading business: Prop trading income dropped Free float (%) 89 67.1% y-y to RMB1.1b in 1Q16, underperforming the A-share market Major shareholder Bright Food (Group) (4%) performance of -19.9% y-y; 3) Lending business: Net interest 12m high/low (HKD) 25.70/10.30 income was down 34.1% y-y to RMB875m, mainly due to the 3m historic vol. (%) 34.9 contraction of intermediary businesses such as margin financing ADR ticker - (MFSL balance was down 22.9% y-y in 1Q16) and increase in interest expenses on bonds payable; 4) Cost efficiency: Operating ADR closing price (USD) - expenses were up 21.2% y-y in 1Q16, vs revenue growth of -34.4% Issued shares (m) 11,502 y-y, leading to CIR up 24.4ppt y-y to 53.1% in 1Q16; 5) Lower Sources: FactSet estimates; BNP Paribas estimates leverage ratio: The company’s leverage ratio and core leverage (excluding customer funds) decreased to 5.21x and 3.63x in 1Q16, from 5.35x and 4.41x in 4Q15. ROA and ROE deteriorated to 1.2% and 6.5% in 1Q16 from 3.3% and 18.1% in 4Q15. Judy Zhang [email protected] +852 2825 1810 Our research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, FactSet and on http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com/index. Please contact your salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page. PREPARED AND PUBLISHED BY NON-US BROKER-DEALER(S): BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES (ASIA) LTD. THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR U.S DISTRIBUTION. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND AT APPENDIX ON PAGE 5 Haitong Securities 6837 HK Judy Zhang Exhibit 1: 1Q16 results summary 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 --------------------1Q16 ---------------------- ---------- Change --------- (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (q-q %) (y-y %) Revenue 3,035 3,803 4,485 6,859 7,968 14,276 4,797 11,212 5,226 (53.4) (34.4) NPAT 1,210 1,667 2,072 2,762 4,102 6,053 910 4,774 1,754 (63.3) (57.2) Asset turnover (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) Leverage ratio (x) 3.0 3.4 3.7 5.2 5.6 6.1 5.6 5.4 5.2 (0.1) (0.4) Core leverage ratio (x) 2.4 2.7 2.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.4 3.6 (0.8) (0.6) ROA (%) 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.7 0.6 3.3 1.2 (2.1) (3.1) ROE (%) 7.8 10.6 12.8 16.5 23.2 27.6 3.5 18.1 6.5 (11.6) (16.7) Efficiency ratio (%) 45.0 40.4 38.3 39.6 28.7 38.2 69.2 44.4 53.1 8.7 24.4 Pre-tax margin (%) 54.4 58.1 60.9 55.8 69.3 59.1 22.1 54.4 44.7 (9.8) (24.6) Effective tax rate (%) 23.4 20.7 20.5 23.5 21.0 22.1 28.2 15.6 16.7 1.0 (4.4) After-tax margin (%) 39.9 43.8 46.2 40.3 51.5 42.4 19.0 42.6 33.6 (9.0) (17.9) Sources: Company data; BNP Paribas Exhibit 2: Valuation summary of China brokers Target BBG code Rating TP P/BV Price Mkt cap ------- P/B ------- -------- P/E -------- ----- Div yield ----- ------- ROE ------- ------ ROA ------ Net profit growth ‘16E ‘15E ‘16E ‘17E ‘15E ‘16E ‘17E ‘15E ‘16E ‘17E ‘15E ‘16E ‘17E ‘15E ‘16E ‘17E ‘15E ‘16E ‘17E (LC) (x) (LC) (USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) H-Shares CITICS-H 6030 HK BUY 22.8 1.5 17.58 5.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 9.3 10.0 8.3 3.2 2.7 3.3 16.5 12.2 13.4 3.6 2.6 2.6 78.9 (7.7) 21.1 Haitong-H 6837 HK BUY 18.2 1.5 13.24 5.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 8.9 9.5 7.7 4.2 3.9 4.9 16.3 12.1 13.8 3.2 2.2 2.4 85.4 (6.5) 24.4 Galaxy 6881 HK BUY 9.2 1.3 7.19 3.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 6.9 8.4 7.0 4.6 3.8 4.6 19.7 12.0 13.3 3.5 2.1 2.2 120.7 (17.5) 19.9 HTSC 6886 HK HOLD 21.6 1.5 17.00 3.8 1.2 1.2 1.0 9.2 10.9 9.6 3.3 2.8 3.1 18.0 11.0 11.4 2.9 1.8 1.8 146.2 (15.1) 12.7 Average 1.2 1.1 1.0 8.6 9.7 8.1 3.3 3.4 3.7 17.6 11.8 13.0 3.3 2.2 2.3 107.8 (11.7) 19.5 Weighted average 1.2 1.1 1.0 8.7 9.7 8.1 3.2 3.4 3.7 17.3 11.9 13.1 3.3 2.2 2.3 102.8 (10.7) 20.2 A-Shares CITICS-A 600030 CH HOLD 19.1 1.5 16.61 25.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 10.4 11.3 9.3 2.7 2.3 2.8 16.5 12.2 13.4 3.6 2.6 2.6 78.9 (7.7) 21.1 Haitong-A 600837 CH HOLD 15.3 1.5 15.38 19.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 12.4 13.2 10.6 1.9 3.5 3.3 16.3 12.1 13.8 3.2 2.2 2.4 85.4 (6.5) 24.4 Huatai-A 601688 CH na na na 17.62 14.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 11.4 13.5 11.9 2.6 2.2 2.5 18.0 11.0 11.4 2.9 1.8 1.8 146.2 (15.1) 12.7 Average 1.5 1.4 1.3 11.4 12.7 10.6 2.4 2.7 2.9 16.9 11.8 12.9 3.2 2.2 2.3 103.5 (9.8) 19.4 Weighted average 1.5 1.4 1.3 11.3 12.5 10.4 2.4 2.7 2.9 16.8 11.9 13.0 3.3 2.2 2.3 97.9 (9.2) 20.1 Note: Priced as at 27 Apr 2016 Sources: Wind; Company data; Bloomberg; BNP Paribas estimates 2 BNP PARIBAS 27 APRIL 2016 Haitong Securities 6837 HK Judy Zhang Financial statements Haitong Securities Profit and Loss (RMB m) Year Ending Dec 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Net brokerage income 3,925 5,147 12,798 11,821 13,686 Net interest income 1,901 2,527 2,213 1,471 2,254 Underwriting income 1,906 2,623 3,338 4,003 4,632 Asset management, dist.
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