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Hurricane Noelani” Disaster Movies: Catastrophically Bad Science Scott Stransky ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 1 Agenda • Analysis of disaster movies from a scientific point of view • We’ll cover a wide range of topics, including: – Storm surge – Severe thunderstorms – Hurricanes – Geology of the Earth’s interior – Lava – Severe thunderstorms – Pandemics – Asteroid impacts – Tsunamis – Polar reversals ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 2 The Film The Day After Tomorrow Portrays 300-foot “Storm Surge” in New York City ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 3 Storm Surge Is Caused by Low Pressure and High Wind • The main drivers of storm surge are: – Wind pushing the water up towards the coast (which is why the front right quadrant of a hurricane is the worst) – Low pressure of the storm suctioning the water upwards ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 4 A 300-Foot Storm Surge Is Unrealistic • It would require approximately 1,200 mile per hour winds—twice the speed of sound • Yet when the surge is approaching land, there is very little wind evident • Of course, realistic storm surge is an important driver of risk, especially from hurricanes, and AIR is in the process of updating its storm surge model ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 5 Tornadoes in Los Angeles Make Good Entertainment… and Are Actually Plausible • In the film, at least 4 tornados form in LA simultaneously, and since it is a movie, they are drawn to landmarks such as the Hollywood sign • Tornadoes (and other severe thunderstorm events) touched down in Orange County, CA, in early 2010, causing $87 million of property damage in the state (such events are in our 10K severe thunderstorm model) ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 6 The Day After Tomorrow Featured Unrealistically Large Cyclones Over Land, Which Is Implausible • In the movie, continent- sized cyclones are over land • The cyclones in the movie were several times larger than Super Typhoon Tip Screenshot from The Day After Tomorrow (1979), the largest recorded cyclone • Tip reached its enormous size over water, where it could draw energy, while the storms in the movie were over land ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 7 Multiple Simultaneous Cyclones, as Shown in The Day After Tomorrow, Have Happened • In addition to portraying large cyclones over land, it also portrays multiple cyclones at once Screenshot from The Day After Tomorrow • However, the image to the right shows a set of 5 cyclones at once, so having numerous cyclones is not out of the question Actual satellite image from 9/15/2004 ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 8 Hurricanes Always Rotate Counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere… Except in Movies Actual satellite image of Hurricane Dean ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 9 Hawaii’s Hurricane Iniki Was the Basis of The Day After Tomorrow’s “Hurricane Noelani” • The hurricane footage used to represent “Hurricane Noelani” in The Day After Tomorrow was actually taken during Hurricane Iniki in 1992 • Iniki was Hawaii’s costliest hurricane, causing more than an estimated $3 billion of insured loss (trended to today’s dollars) • AIR will be releasing an update to its Hawaii Tropical Cyclone Model later this year ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 10 Jurassic Park Also Used Footage from Hurricane Iniki • Steven Spielberg was caught in Hurricane Iniki on Kauai on what was to have been the last day of filming "Jurassic Park“ • The 130 cast and crew members, including the stars of the film, waited out the storm in a hotel; "This was a real zinger," Spielberg told NBC News of the storm • Iniki footage made the final film ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 11 The Perfect Storm Made Use of Real Hurricane Footage from 1999’s Hurricane Floyd • The perfect storm of 1991 was a nor’easter that absorbed a hurricane (Sounds familiar? So was Hurricane Sandy) • Hurricane Floyd was impacting the eastern seaboard during filming, leading the producer to comment, “Of course, we were aware of the irony of a huge hurricane wreaking havoc on a movie about a huge hurricane.” • However, the waves caused by Floyd were filmed, leading the producer to say, “Hurricane Floyd went from being our greatest fear to becoming one of our greatest assets. You can't buy those kinds of special effects.” ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 12 The Core Has a Great Cast but Bad Geology • This film features a team that must go to the center of the Earth to restart the core using nuclear bombs • For the journey, they use a ship that is made from something called Unobtainium and is powered by lasers • (By the way, I’d recommend the Wikipedia article on Unobtainium—it’s fascinating!) ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 13 The Earth’s Core Is Enormous • The molten core is about the size of Mars • It spins at about 500+ miles per hour • In the film, the core has stopped, causing a breakdown of the Earth’s magnetic field and property destruction from solar radiation ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 14 Thus, the Energy Required to Stop the Core’s Rotation Is Also Enormous • Calculated by one source as 1028 joules • Put into perspective: – 5,000,000,000,000 one megaton bombs – 500,000,000 times the energy of all the bombs on earth – 250,000 times stronger than Tohoku • This is enough energy to power a standard 100 watt bulb for over 230 million times the scientifically accepted age of the universe (13.75 billion years) • This is enough energy to power AIR’s Boston office for over 100,000 times the age of the universe • … Yet the movie has the core stopping without this energy being dissipated • … and the movie believes that you could restart it using several nuclear bombs ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 15 Armageddon Also Miscalculates Energy • Bruce Willis and team must fly to an asteroid and blow it up before it hits Earth • British scientists published a paper in the “Journal of Physics Special Topics,” calculating that this would take 8 x 1026 joules to accomplish (similar to restarting the core), or millions of times more than all the bombs on Earth combined • The splitting of the asteroid would have had to be detected and blown up over 8 billion miles from Earth ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 16 The Core Explains that the Core Stopped Rotating Because of a Human-Created Weapon • A weapon was created that “propagates earthquakes through the core” • This apparently stopped the core’s rotation • Luckily, we don’t have to account for this scenario in our earthquake models, given the energy constraints shown in the previous slide ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 17 The Interior of the Earth Is Not Like the Surface… Unless You Are a Filmmaker • Along the ship’s journey toward the core, they encounter a large “geode”— a void in the mantle • Pressure inside this geode would be 10,000+ times higher than at the surface, and stepping out of the ship would instantly crush a person • Gravity is reduced as you get closer to the core… in real life ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 18 On the Other Hand, a “Simple” Kid’s Cartoon, Bugs Bunny, Almost Got It Right • The episode of Tiny Toons called, “Journey to the Center of Acme Acres,” features the characters going to the center of the Earth • In this case, they correctly experience “zero gravity” at the core (but no impacts caused by pressure or temperature) ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 19 Let’s Talk About Lava ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 20 Lava Is Denser than Films Would Have You Believe • In The Core, a character falls into molten lava • Someone who fell into the molten rock would not sink • Lava has a density about 3 times higher than water • Similar to how styrofoam floats on water ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 21 Video Games Also Give People the Wrong Impression of Lava • The Mario video game series has featured lava in numerous levels • Mario always sinks and loses a life when he falls into lava • Since many children gain their first experience of lava through these games, they can be scarred for life ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 22 Peter Jackson Also Ignored Density in The Lord of the Rings • Gollum falls into the molten lava of Mount Doom, and he sinks • Caveat: the density of Gollum is perhaps not well understood • Interestingly, the gold ring, which has a much higher density than water, does float ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 23 Twister Shows Many Severely Unscientific Thunderstorms • In Twister, storm chasers attempt to get scientific instruments inside a tornado • According to the MPAA, which is the rating agency for movies in the U.S., Twister is rated PG-13 “for intense depiction of very bad weather” ©2013 AIR WORLDWIDE CONFIDENTIAL: For the exclusive use of Atlanta Client Conference attendees 24 The MPAA Has Recently Determined Ratings for Some of AIR’s Models Model Rating MPAA Reasoning Reasoning U.S.
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