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Reliability, Multi-State Failures and Survivability of Spacecraft and Space-Based Networks

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Reliability, Multi-State Failures and Survivability of Spacecraft and Space-Based Networks RELIABILITY, MULTI-STATE FAILURES AND SURVIVABILITY OF SPACECRAFT AND SPACE-BASED NETWORKS A Dissertation Presented to The Academic Faculty By Jean-François Castet In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the School of Aerospace Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology December 2012 Copyright © 2012 by Jean-François Castet RELIABILITY, MULTI-STATE FAILURES AND SURVIVABILITY OF SPACECRAFT AND SPACE-BASED NETWORKS Approved by: Dr. Joseph H. Saleh, Advisor School of Aerospace Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Eric M. Feron Dr. Vitali V. Volovoi School of Aerospace Engineering School of Aerospace Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Paul Kvam Mr. John C. Day School of Industrial and Systems Technical Group Supervisor, Autonomy Engineering and Fault Protection Georgia Institute of Technology Jet Propulsion Laboratory Date Approved: October 19, 2012 To my parents, grand-mother and So Young ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I wish to thank my advisor, Dr. Joseph H. Saleh for his guidance and constant support through this difficult but enriching endeavor. Dr. Saleh was always available for our research discussions, and offered pointed and extremely helpful advice and guidance. Without his support, this dissertation would not have seen the light of day. In addition, Dr. Saleh has a brilliant mind and wonderful work ethics I truly admire. I am also very grateful for all the opportunities he has given me, such as presenting my work at various conferences or writing with him several journal papers. He also gave me the exceptional opportunity to co-author a book with him, and I am deeply grateful and proud of this accomplishment. In addition to our fruitful research interactions, I got the chance to discuss with him about a wide range of subjects, and his depth and variety of knowledge never cease to amaze me. I would also like to extend my thanks to all the members of my Ph.D. committee: Dr. Eric M. Feron, Dr. Vitali V. Volovoi, Dr. Paul Kvam and Mr. John C. Day. I thank them for the thought-provoking discussions and expertise that allowed this dissertation to come to fruition. I would like to express my gratitude to Dr. Jeff Jagoda for his essential support during these years. Without his help and the teaching assistantships he kindly offered me, I would not have been able to pursue this program. iv My years as a graduate student would not have been as fun and interesting without my fellow labmates in the Space Systems Design Lab, particularly Greg Dubos, Jarret Lafleur, Joy Brathwaite, and Loïc Brevault for their willingness to discuss research ideas, but also for the less serious sides of student life. I also want to thank other graduate students in the lab, Zarrin Chua, Grégory Lantoine, Nitin Arora, Brad Steinfeldt, and Francesca Favaro. A particular thank to Jenna Stahl, who help smooth the rough edges of my English when I first arrived in the US, and Gi Yun Chung, who had to put up with me during lunch for all these years. I also would like to thank my dear friends in France: Hervé Kelmant, Jean-François and Mayalen Sallaberry, Florian Duport, and all the members of the “Bouliste” from SUPAERO for their support even from far, far away. Finally, I want to thank So Young Kim for her irreplaceable support, encouragement and understanding. My deepest gratitude goes to my parents Pierre and Anne-Marie and my grand-mother Louise for their unconditional love and enduring support of my decision of continuing my studies. Without them, I would not have gone as far as I am today. I also want to extend this to my entire family and family friends for their unwavering support for my studies abroad. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ xii LIST OF FIGURES ...........................................................................................................xv LIST OF SYMBOLS ..................................................................................................... xxiv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................ xxix SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... xxxi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................1 1.1. A Brief Historical Perspective and Motivation ........................................................ 1 1.2. Outline and Anticipated Contributions .................................................................... 4 CHAPTER 2 RELIABILITY OF SPACECRAFT AND SPACECRAFT SUBSYSTEMS8 2.1. On Spacecraft and Reliability: Early Studies ........................................................... 9 2.2. Nonparametric Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Failure Data............................ 12 2.2.1. Database and Data Description ....................................................................... 12 2.2.2. Nonparametric Analysis of Spacecraft Failure Data ...................................... 13 2.2.3. Parametric Analysis and Weibull Modeling of Spacecraft Reliability ........... 18 2.2.4. Discussion and Limitations ............................................................................. 26 2.2.5. Spacecraft Subsystem Reliability and Comparative Contribution to Spacecraft Unreliability .............................................................................................................. 28 vi 2.3. Summary ................................................................................................................ 38 CHAPTER 3 MULTI-STATE FAILURE ANALYSIS OF SPACECRAFT SUBSYSTEMS ..................................................................................................................39 3.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 39 3.2. Setting the Stage for Multi-State Failure Analysis ................................................ 41 3.3. Multi-State Failure Analysis: Theoretical Development and Application to Spacecraft Subsystems .................................................................................................. 43 3.3.1. Nonparametric Analyses of Subsystems’ Multi-State Failures ...................... 43 3.3.2. Weibull Parametric Models ............................................................................ 49 3.3.3. Discussion about Uncertainty and Confidence Interval Spread ..................... 51 3.4. Comparative Reliability and Multi-State Failure Analyses of Spacecraft Subsystem: the Thruster/Fuel Subsystem Example ...................................................... 54 3.5. Summary ................................................................................................................ 57 3.A. Appendix: Multi-State Failure Analysis of Remaining Subsystems .................... 58 CHAPTER 4 SURVIVABILITY AND INTERDEPENDENT MULTI-LAYER NETWORKS: SETTING A NOVEL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS........................64 4.1. Survivability: Literature Highlights ....................................................................... 65 4.1.1. Military Context .............................................................................................. 65 4.1.2. Engineering Context ....................................................................................... 67 4.1.3. Survivability Concept Summary ..................................................................... 68 4.2. Survivability Framework ....................................................................................... 69 vii 4.3. Networks: Literature Highlights and Limitations for Space-Based Networks ...... 71 4.4. Introduction to Interdependent Multi-Layer Networks.......................................... 74 4.5. Formal Definition of Interdependent Multi-Layer Networks ................................ 78 4.5.1. IMLN Representation Using Graphs .............................................................. 78 4.5.2. IMLN Representation Using Matrices ............................................................ 80 4.6. Summary ................................................................................................................ 85 CHAPTER 5 FAILURE PROPAGATION IN INTERDEPENDENT MULTI-LAYER NETWORKS: FORMAL ANALYSIS AND THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT .........86 5.1. Complete Failure Simulation ................................................................................. 87 5.1.1. Time to Failure Generation ............................................................................. 87 5.1.2. Failure Propagation Through the “Kill Effect” ............................................... 88 5.1.3. Failure Propagation Through the “Precursor Effect”...................................... 89 5.1.4. Combination of All Effects ............................................................................. 92 5.1.5. Summary of the Failure Propagation Algorithm ............................................ 93 5.1.6. Failure Propagation Examples ........................................................................ 94 5.2. Multi-State Failure Simulation .............................................................................. 97 5.2.1. Generation of the Times to Failure and
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