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Agricultural Development Planning in Thailand: Some Supporting Analysis Charles F DAE-CARD Sector Analysis Series CARD Reports and Working Papers 3-1977 Agricultural Development Planning in Thailand: Some Supporting Analysis Charles F. Framingham University of Manitoba Arthur L. Stoecker Iowa State University Kanok Khatikarn Division of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Royal Thai Government Somnuk Sriplung Division of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Royal Thai Government Earl O. Heady Iowa State University Follow this and additional works at: http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/dae-card_sectoranalysis Part of the Agribusiness Commons, Agricultural and Resource Economics Commons, Agricultural Economics Commons, Asian Studies Commons, and the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Framingham, Charles F.; Stoecker, Arthur L.; Khatikarn, Kanok; Sriplung, Somnuk; and Heady, Earl O., "Agricultural Development Planning in Thailand: Some Supporting Analysis" (1977). DAE-CARD Sector Analysis Series. 1. http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/dae-card_sectoranalysis/1 This Book is brought to you for free and open access by the CARD Reports and Working Papers at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in DAE-CARD Sector Analysis Series by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Agricultural Development Planning in Thailand: Some Supporting Analysis Charles F. Framingham Arthur L. Stoecker Kanok Khatikarn Somnuk Sriplung Earl 0. Heady AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING IN THAILAND: SOME SUPPORTING ANALYSIS Charles F. Framingham, Arthur L. Stoecker, Kanok Khatikarn, Somnuk Sriplung and Earl 0. Heady The Division of Agricultural Economics Office of the Under Secretary of State for Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives Royal Thai Government, Bangkok, Tahiland in cooperation with The Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011 This work was completed under Contract AID/CM/SA-C-73-19 and Grant AID/CSD-2824 DAE-CARD Sector Analysis Series: No. 4 March 1977 ii TABLES OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES iv LIST OF TABLES vi FOREWORD X I. INTRODUCTION 1 Purpose 1 II. THE PRESENT SITUATION 5 Thailand's Population 5 Land for Agriculture 7 Agricultural Resource Development 9 Agricultural Production 9 Performance of Thai Agriculture 11 III. ISSUES AFFECTING PLANNING RESEARCH 19 Population Growth 19 Income Levels and Distribution 20 Employment Levels and Distribution 21 Land Reform and the Right to Land Ownership 25 Area of Land Classified by Type and Actual Land Use 25 Agricultural Productivity and Technology Adoption 28 IV. OBJECTIVES 31 V. THE APPROACH TAKEN 32 Population Levels and Rate of Population Growth 34 Income Growth 35 Commodity Prices 36 Agricultural Land Area and Use and Technology Adoption '38 iii Irrigation 38 Analysis of Livestock Production 39 Alternatives Identified for Analysis 40 VI. ALTERNATIVES ANALYZED 46 Alternative A 46 Alternative Bl 49 Alternative B2 52 Alternative C 53 Alternative D 54 Alternative E 54 Alternative F 55 VII. RESULTS OF ALTERNATIVES ANALYZED 57 BE 2524 Employment and Income Under Alternative A, Bl and B2 57 Conditions BE 2524 Employment and Income Under Alternative E and F 67 Conditions The Price of Rice and Net Farm Income 80 Output, Employment and Income Generated in Nonagricultural 84 Sectors Production, Consumption and Commodity Exports 86 Use of Land, Water, RD Rice Varieties and Fertilizer 98 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Thailand's Agricultural Zones and Region as Specified 3 for Analysis and Planning. Figure 2. The Regional Distribution and Levels of Urbanization 6 of Population in Thailand. Figure 3. Average Income per Farm Family by Source BE 2513. 15 Figure 4. Employment in Thailand by Region for Agriculture and 22 Nonagricultural Sectors BE 2513. Figure 5. BE 2516 Agricultural Labor Available and Employed in 23 Agriculture in Thailand's Agricultural Regions During the Peak Use Honth and in the Dry Season When Agricul­ tural Labor Requirements are Lowest. Figure 6. BE 2516 Levels of Total Employment in Agriculture. 24 Figure 7. BE 2516 Agricultural Employment Situation by Region 26 in the Honth of Peak Employment, the Dry Season and the Wet Season. Figure 8. Economically Active Population and Employment Situa- 58 tion in Agriculture in BE 2516 and in BE 2524 Under Alternative A, Bl and B2 Conditions. Figure 9. Levels of Unemployment in Thailand by Region BE 2516 59 and in BE 2524 as Estimated Under Alternatives A, Bl and B2 During the Wet Season, Dry Season and Honth of Peak Employment. Figure 10. Net Farm Income in Thailand in BE 2516 and in BE 2524 60 as Estimated Under Alternative A, Bl and B2 Conditions. Figure 11. Economically Active Population and Employment Situation 68 in Agriculture in BE 2516 and in BE 2524 Under Alter­ natives A, C and D Conditions. Figure 12. Levels of Unemployment in Thailand by Region in BE 2516 69 and in BE 2524 as Estimated Under Alternatives A, C and D during the Wet Season, Dry Season and Honth of Peak Employment. v Figure 13. Net Farm Income in Thailand in BE 2516 and in BE 2524 70 as Estimated Under Alternative A, C, and D Conditions. Figure 14. Economically Active Population and Employment Situa- 75 tion in Agriculture in BE 2516 and in BE 2524 Under Alternative A, E and F Conditions. Figure 15. Levels of Unemployment in Thailand by Region in BE 76 2516 and in BE 2524 as Estimated Under Alternatives A, E and F During the Wet Season, Dry Season and Month of Peak Employment. Figure 16. Net Farm Income in Thailand in BE 2516 and in BE 2524 77 as Estimated Under Alternative A, E and F Conditions. Figure 17. BE 2524 Net Farm Income in Thailand for Several 82 Alternatives Under Selected Paddy Rice Price Condi­ tions. Figure 18. BE 2524 Agricultural Output of Thailand and Nonagri- 85 cultural Ouput, Income and Employment Generated Under Alternative A, Bl and D Conditions. Figure 19. Thailand's Agricultural Production, Consumption and 87 Export Situation in BE 2516 and in BE 2524 Under Alternative A, Bl and B2 Conditions. Figure 20. Thailand's Agricultural Production, Consumption and 88 Export Situation in BE 2516 and in BE 2524 Under Alternative A, C and D Conditions. Figure 21. Thailand's Agricultural Production, Consumption and 89 Export Situation in BE 2516 and in BE 2524 Under Alternative A, E and F Conditions. vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Commodities and Commodity Groups Explicitly Identified, 4 Analyzed and Reported Throughout the Text. Table 2. Characteristic Features of Thailand's Population and 7 Labor Force by Region in 1970. Table 3. Thailand's Land Area by Class of Land and Region in 8 BE 2516. Table 4. Thailand's Agricultural Land Area by Class and Region 9 in BE 2516-2517. Table 5. Indicators of Thailand's Average Agricultural Resource 10 Development by Region, BE 2517. Table 6. Agricultural Production of Major Crops in Thailand 11 BE 2516-2517 by Region Unit - 1,000 Tons. Table 7. Agricultural Productivity of Major Livestock Types in 12 Thailand BE 2516-2517 by Region. Table 8. Thailand's Agricultural Import-Export Situation for 13 Selected Commodities BE 2513 and BE 2516. Table 9. Regional Average Farm Family Income by Source and Total 14 Family Income Generated in Nonagricultural Sectors by Agriculture in BE 2513 (Baht). Table 10. Labor Force and Employment in Thailand for Agriculture 16 and Nonagricultural Sectors by Region BE 2513 (1,000). Table 11. BE 2513 and Projected BE 2524 Population Statistics 18 Under Alternative Population Growth Assumptions by Region (1,000). Table 12. The Distribution of Farms by Size and Land Area by 27 Tenure Class and Region, BE 2517. Table 13. Land Area, Yield and Production of Rice in Thailand 29 BE 2498-2518. Table 14. Factors Affecting Achievement of Agricultural 33 Development Planning Objectives. vii Table 15. Projected BE 2524 Regional and National P9pulation 34 Levels for Thailand Under Alternative Population Growth Rates (1,000 Persons). Table 16. Percentage Increase in Domestic Demand for Selected 36 Major Thailand Agricultural Products Given a One Percent Increase in Disposable Income, 1972-73. Table 17. Price, Production and Export Levels for Selected Thai 37 Agricultural Products. Table 18. Actual BE 2518 Irrigable Area Planted to Paddy and 39 Potentially Irrigable Paddy Area by Season Given Completion of Dams and Reservoirs Under Construction and Scheduled for Completion by BE 2524. Table 19a. Estimated BE 2524 Domestic, Export and Total Live- 41 stock Product Demands by Region. Low Assumed Popu- lation Growth Rate and Low Exports. Table 19b. Estimated BE 2524 Livestock Total Demands for Thai- 41 land with Low Assumed Population Growth and Low Exports. Table 19c. Estimated BE 2524 Domestic, Export and Total Live- 42 stock Product Demands by Region. Medium Assumed Population Growth Rate and Medium Exports. Table 19d. Estimated BE 2524 Livestock Total Demands for Thai- 42 land with Medium Assumed Population Growth and Medium Exports. Table 19e. Estimated BE 2524 Domestic, Export and Total Live- 43 stock Product Demands by Region. High Assumed Popula­ tion Growth Rate and High Exports. Table 19f. Estimated BE 2524 Livestock Total Demands for Thailand 43 with High Assumed Population Growth and High Exports. Table 20. Principal and Illustrative Alternatives Analyzed. 45 Table 21. BE 2524 Demand Factor Levels Assumed in Analysis of 47 Alternative A. Table 22. BE 2524 Supply Factor Levels Assumed in Analysis of 48 Alternative A. Table 23. BE 2524 National Domestic and Export Demand Assumed 49 for Major Crops in Analysis of Alternative A (1,000 Tons). viii Table 24. BE 2524 Domestic and Export Demand Assumed for Major 50 Crops in Analysis of Alternatives Bl (1,000 Tons). Table 25. BE 2524 Supply Factor Levels Assumed in Analysis of 51 Alternative Bl. Table 26. BE 2524 Population and Domestic Demand Conditions 54 Under Alternative C as Compared to Alternative A Conditions.
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