Boston Condo and Rental Market Report Year End 2018
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Boston Condo and Rental Market Report Year End 2018 2/1/2019 Introduction Although 2018 was considered a banner year with over Buyers are moving around, following the value. Specific 4000 closings and record high prices, it is also being neighborhoods mean less as Boston develops the infill recognized as the beginning of the “adjustment cycle.” After between them, resulting in a blending and overlapping that years of record – breaking absorption and year over year skews some of the specificity prevalent in years past. The double digit appreciation, the market has hit the pause key ingredients of public transportation, ease of walkability button. and an established sense of place are more motivating than a defined neighborhood boundary. The last quarter of 2018 witnessed a shift in the market from an over heated Sellers’ market to a more balanced Amenities and parking are at the forefront of decision- demand model. The high-end new construction market making. Bostonians still love their cars and although has provided sufficient supply such that those buyers have we have witnessed some constriction on that demand, several choices.. and are taking their time making them. selling any new construction with 2 bedrooms requires With over 1500 units at over $1450 per foot either on a parking space for optimum pricing. Amenities are alive the market or coming on the market within the next 12 and well, now expecting elevated concierge services, months, the supply within that silo is several years’ worth of curated programming and sufficient outdoor spaces such inventory. Fortunately, Boston’s appetite for the high-end that their “vertical neighborhoods” can be self-sustaining. of the market is still relatively robust, over 400 units sold in Balancing all these playgrounds is a challenge in concert 2018 with a $2 million plus price tag. with HOA fees, which need to straddle $1.00 per foot to be acceptable to the median of the market. However, that 35 per month absorption metric has slowed to 10 during the past quarter. The impact of economic Boston will continue to appreciate, albeit more cautiously instability, rising interest rates last fall, national political and certainly not at the same level that we have concerns and the world-wide unsettled nature of political experienced during the past 7 years. But our local economy power struggles has eroded consumer confidence. Few is top-tier, nationwide. We have a user-friendly business can deal with spending millions under these circumstances. development arena and a local administration who wants The constricting Asian market has further reduced the to build housing. Investors from throughout the globe buyer pool. These uber luxury projects will sell, albeit at a still consider Boston a great investment. And although it much slower pace. appears we are facing a general over supply within certain price points, the truth is – it takes 3 years to complete a The market under 1 million, however, is alive and well. Any large residential building in Boston, providing the ability to urban project with absolute prices under 1 million dollars amortize the absorption of these large projects within a is still experiencing robust absorption but moderate reasonable timeframe. Boston will continue to support one appreciation. The stable interest rate scenario is assisting of the top real estate markets in the nation. The 2019 that balance. This bodes well for a moderately priced resale message however, is moderation and some patience… in market too. both price and pace going forward. Development Pipeline (Planning, Under Construction or Recently Completed) • Represents over 21,000 Map Legend The Graphic (171) 610 Rutherford Ave (22) units of inventory either 425 Border Street (16) Condominiums The Harvey (177) recently delivered, 135 Bremen (94) 1699 Mass Ave (20) Condo w/ Hotel Component Coppersmith Village (15/56) 319-327 Chelsea(38) in planning, or under 301-303 Border St (64) Condo w/ Rental Component Cambridge Crossing (2,400) construction Ropewalk (97) Condo w/Office Component 140 Prospect St (5) 75-85 Liverpool (22) 151 Liverpool (36) Apartments Maverick Shipyard(23) • The distribution is as Slip 45 (114/284) The Mark (107) Conversion follows: 18% condominium Slip 65 (80/284) 114 Orleans (23) Unknown Use 125 Sumner (30/22) 31 Orleans (14) units, 46% apartment Volpe MIT (1,400) Hub50 House units, 36% unknown use (440) Market Central (308) Garden Garage (469) Saybrook (29) Everett St Radius (132) Barry’s Corner (325) Residences (19) 24-26 Hichborn St (20) Bulfinch Crossing (55/368) 287 Maverick St (37) Proto (280) Lantera Boston Landing (295) The Archer (67) 25 Atlantic Ave (6) 1550 Soldier's Field Rd (249) 30 Penniman Road (46) 66 Beacon St (15) 1 Bromfield St (119/300) Boulevard on the 392-398 Cambridge (32) Greenway (36) 44 North Beacon Street (16/38) Winthrop Sq. (200/300) Allston Square (245/108) 31 N Beacon (20) St Regis Tower (150) 40 Rugg Rd (265) Motor Mart Garage (125/131) Canvas (94) 37-43 N Beacon St (9/72) 212 Stuart (131) 1000 Boylston (108) Pier 4 (106) 89 Brighton Ave (129) Fenway Center I (550) Echelon (447/285) Allston Yards (1,050) Packard Crossing (114) 47-55 LaGrange (176) Trans National Group Tower (325) NEMA (414) 386-388 Market St (17) South End Gateway (600) 7Ink By Ollie (250) Viola Back Bay (85) Parcel K (304) 455 Harvard St (17) The Coolidge (320) Raffles Residences (139) 87-93 W Broadway (65) 72 Burbank St (32) One Dalton (180) Washington St Plaza (270) 112 Shawmut (170) 1299 Beacon (74) Power Plant (1,344) The Henry (20) 410 W Broadway (24) 5 Washington St (108) Quinzani (101/172) 60 Kilmarnock St (195/238) 420 W Broadway (42) 81 Chestnut Hill Ave (14) SOBO Place (50) 209 Harvard St (43) 120 W 4th St (9) 46 Wareham St (18) 27 H St (11) Flats on Marion (4) The Ceinture (54) The Chandlery (114) 1470 Tremont St (30) Longwood II 410 W Broadway (24) 158 Winthrop Rd (5) Residences(115) The Smith South End (650) 232 Old Colony Ave (24) 20 Boylston St (16) Mission Hill Flats (40) Washington Village (656) 256 Dorchester St (32) 29 Gorham Ave (2) 33-39 Ward St (14) 9-11 Burney St (25) 603 Dorchester Ave (24) 400 Dorchester St (35) Annualized Urban Core Condominium Sales, UAG & Listings by Year • Condominiums are Price PSF classified into luxury $2,400 16% categories based on neighborhood, finishes, $2,300 amenities, and pricing $2,200 8% $2,100 -6% • Ultra Luxury are the 12% highest end buildings, $2,000 followed by Luxury and $1,900 then Mid Luxury buildings 19% $1,800 19% • Since 2013, sales prices $1,700 for Luxury and Mid Luxury $1,600 9% -13% have steadily risen, while Ultra Luxury Ultra Luxury has rise $1,500 15% -10% Luxury significantly $1,400 Mid Luxury 1% • Currently UAG for Ultra $1,300 14% -2% Non Luxury Luxury appears to have $1,200 depreciated, this is 13% 18% $1,100 based on 21 units under -10% 6% $1,000 -3% agreement, of which 17 7% 7% 1% are from one building (Pier $900 16% 9% 4) averaging $2,041 PSF, 6% $800 1% 8% with prices starting as low 9% $700 as $1,500 per square foot 9% • Please note, UAG and $600 Listings are only based $500 on public information via 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 UAG Listings LINK/MLS, and buildings Year (2013 through 2018) like 1 Dalton are not included The above highlights historical and recent condominium sales, units under agreement and listings (through December 31, 2018) for specific Urban Core neighborhoods including Allston, Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Brighton, Charlestown, East Boston, Fenway, the Financial District, Chinatown, Midtown, North End, The Seaport, South Boston, South End, Waterfront, and the West End. Urban Core Annualized Condominium Sales and UAG (By Size & Price Per Square Foot) • The majority of Non, Mid, 3% Non Lux / .4% Mid Lux / 6% Lux / 33% Ultra Lux Sale/UAG PPSF and Luxury units fall under $2,900 10% 1,600 SF $2,800 10% Non Lux / 5% Mid Lux / 23% Lux / 34% Ultra Lux $2,700 • 23% and 34% of units in $2,600 Luxury and Ultra Luxury $2,500 7% are between 1,600 and 87% Non Lux / 94% Mid Lux / 70% Lux / 33% Ultra Lux $2,400 2,400 square feet $2,300 7% $2,200 3% 10% 7% • The majority of sales/ $2,100 12% 2% 7% UAG (over 83%) are 2 $2,000 16% 9% 9% bedrooms or smaller $1,900 10% $1,800 Non Luxury • Only 28% of Luxury and $1,700 2% 3% 5% 2% $1,600 Mid Luxury 3% Ultra Luxury units 2% $1,500 15% 6% Luxury are below 1000 SF in 18% $1,400 12% 0.4% Ultra Luxury comparison to the over 13% 1% $1,300 3% 10% 0.4% 50% occupied by both Mid $1,200 14% and Non Luxury buildings % of $1,100 2% Sales/UAG 14% 13% 2% $1,000 12% 2% 1% for various 26% 23% 3%2% • For both Ultra Luxury and 5% 4% luxury $900 21% 6% 0.2% categories 20% 15% 10% 1% Non Luxury Units, price $800 $700 per square foot increases $600 as unit size increases $500 Square Foot Range The above highlights annualized condominium sales and under agreement (through December 31, 2018) for the specific urban core neighborhoods previously listed. Data is based on publicly available information. 2018 Urban Core Sales Variance Per Quarter (Above and Below $1 Million) • The average variance between selling price and original price is Avg Variance significantly greater for Price Range #Sold/UAG Avg Selling (Sold-Org Avg % closings over $1 million /Quarter /List Avg SF Price Avg PPSF Price) Variance Avg DOM (-3.3%) than for closings Closings Less than $1 Million under $1 million (-0.4%) Quarter 1 165 885 $684,939 $831 ($13,527) -1.2% 45 • Sales variance between selling and original Quarter 2 374 827 $706,331 $914 $7,844 1.5% 26 price for buildings over $1 million was roughly