Monday, February 14, 2011 Deutsche Boerse/NYSE deal far from done by Davidmailto:
[email protected] Brierley The proposed merger between Deutsche Boerse AG and NYSE Euronext may hit a regulatory wall. Although the deal has been widely celebrated by analysts and mar- kets, there is a very real problem in merging two of the world’s larg- est derivatives and equities trading businesses, not least in Europe. In many areas, the combined market shares are very high indeed. A particular problem is European exchange-traded derivatives, widely perceived to form the heart of the deal. In Europe, Eurex, owned by Deutsche Boerse, and Liffe, owned by NYSE Euronext, operate an effective duopoly. This is where cost reduction could make a real difference: Derivatives are growing for NYSE Euronext, while its cash equities business is suffering from the climate of investor uncertainty. “There will be a competition review by the European authorities. Already in derivatives trading, there is not a level playing field. However, there is an opportunity for disposals to get the merger through,” Raul Sinha, a bank analyst at Nomura, told SNL Financial. In a note, Richard Repetto of Sandler O’Neill wrote: “We note that this transaction provides significant scale/overlap in European futures, European cash equities, and U.S. equity options. Therefore, we’d expect a significant antitrust review in each of these areas.” The merged entity would have 43% of U.S. equity options and 30% of pan-European cash equities, aside from near total dominance of European exchange-traded derivatives. Although weak volume growth and rising competition from new exchanges threaten the equities business, the options business is better protected from bank-sponsored competition.