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Modeling the Water Quality in Uluabat Lake a Thesis MODELING THE WATER QUALITY IN ULUABAT LAKE A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY FİRDES YEN İLMEZ IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING JULY 2007 Approval of the thesis: MODELING THE WATER QUALITY IN ULUABAT LAKE submitted by FİRDES YEN İLMEZ in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Environmental Engineering Department, Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Canan Özgen Dean, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences _________________ Prof. Dr. Göksel Demirer Head of Department, Environmental Engineering _________________ Assist. Prof. Dr. Ay şegül Aksoy Supervisor, Environmental Engineering Dept., METU _________________ Examining Committee Members: Prof. Dr. Celal F. Gökçay Environmental Engineering Dept., METU _________________ Assist. Prof. Dr. Ay şegül Aksoy Environmental Engineering Dept., METU _________________ Prof. Dr. Ay şe MUHAMMETO ĞLU Environmental Engineering Dept., Akdeniz University _________________ Assist. Prof. Dr. İpek İmamo ğlu Environmental Engineering Dept., METU _________________ Dr. Elçin Kentel Civil Engineering Dept., METU _________________ Date: _________________ PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : Firdes YEN İLMEZ Signature : iii ABSTRACT MODELING THE WATER QUALITY IN ULUABAT LAKE YEN İLMEZ, Firdes M.S., Department of Environmental Engineering Supervisor : Assist. Prof. Dr. Ay şegül Aksoy July 2007, 104 pages Lakes can be used for recreational purposes, agricultural irrigation, domestic water supply or industrial use. However, these functions of the lakes can be impaired due to excess nutrient loadings from industrial facilities, agricultural activities , and discharge of wastewaters from sewage systems. Uluabat Lake is one of the important lakes in Turkey faced with water quality problems due to excess nutrient loading from point and non-point sources. In this study, Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP Version 7.2), supported by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), was used to simulate the water quality of the lake. The model was calibrated using a set of data belonging to the time period from January 1st to June 1st , 2000, for dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), ortho-phosphate (PO 4-P) and nitrate (NO 3-N). An acceptable similarity was obtained between the predicted and observed water quality values in calibration. Then, the model was verified for another data set. Verification period was from 1 st of June to 31 st of December, 1999. Verification results were also coherent with the observed values. Following the calibration and verification, the model was used as a management tool to predict the future quality conditions for the lake for different management iv scenarios. According to the results, sediment dredging had a significant impact on the water quality. Additional methods on top of sediment dredging improved the quality of the lake. The best result was obtained when buffer zone was formed, phosphorus loads from the Mustafakemalpa şa District sewage system and Emet and Orhaneli Watersheds were decreased by 50% and 50% decrease was considered in the fertilizer usage throughout the agricultural lands, in addition to sediment dredging. Keywords: Calibration, modeling, Lake Uluabat, WASP7, water quality simulation v ÖZ ULUABAT GÖLÜ SU KAL İTES İNİN MODELLENMES İ YEN İLMEZ, Firdes Yüksek Lisans, Çevre Mühendisli ği Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi : Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ay şegül Aksoy Temmuz 2007, 104 sayfa Göller, rekreasyonel, zirai alanların sulanması, evsel ve endüstriyel su temini gibi pekçok amaç için kullanılabilir. Fakat günümüzde göller, endüstriyel tesislerden, zirai faaliyetlerden ve kanalizasyon sistemlerinden atıksuların de şarj edilmesinden dolayı a şırı organik madde giri şine ba ğlı olarak fonksiyonlarını yitirmektedir. Uluabat Gölü, noktasal ve noktasal olmayan kaynaklardan a şırı besin maddesi alması nedeniyle su kalite problemleri ya şayan ülkemizdeki en önemli göllerden biridir. Bu çalı şmada, Uluabat Gölü’ndeki su kalitesi A.B.D. Çevre Koruma Ajansı (EPA) tarafından desteklenen Su Kalite Analiz Simülasyon Modeli (WASP7.2) kullanılarak modellenmi ştir. Model, 01.01.2000-01.06.2000 zaman periyoduna ait veriler kullanılarak çözünmü ş oksijen (ÇO), klorofil-a (Chl-a), orto-fosfat (PO 4-P) ve nitrat (NO 3-N), parametreleri için kalibre edilmi ştir. Kalibrasyon sonucunda, model tahminleri ve gözlenen de ğerler arasında kabul edilebilir bir benzerlik elde edilmi ştir. Daha sonra, simülasyon sonuçları ba şka bir veri seti ile do ğrulanmı ştır. Verifikasyon periyodu olarak 01.06.1999- 31.12.1999 aralı ğı seçilmi ştir. Verifikasyon sonuçlarının da gözlenen de ğerlerle uyum içinde oldu ğu görülmü ştür. vi Kalibrasyonu ve verifikasyonu tamamlanan model, bir yönetim aracı olarak, Uluabat Gölü’nün gelecekteki su kalitesinin ve çe şitli yönetim senaryolarının göl su kalitesi üzerine etkilerinin belirlenmesi amacıyla kullanılmı ştır. Yönetim senaryoları sonuçlarına göre, sediment uzakla ştırılması su kalitesi üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahiptir. Sediment taramasına ek olarak uygulanan yöntemler de göl su kalitesini geli ştirmi ştir. En etkili sonuç, sediment uzakla ştırılmasına ek olarak Uluabat Gölü çevresindeki tarımsal alanların kaldırılıp, Mustafakemalpasa İlçesi kanalizasyon sistemi ve Emet ve Orhaneli Havzalarından gelen fosfor yükü, ve Uluabat Gölü havzasında yer alan tarımsal alanlarda kullanılan gübre miktarlarının %50 oranında azaltılması ile elde edilmi ştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Kalibrasyon, modelleme, Uluabat Gölü, WASP7, su kalite simülasyonu vii DEDICATION To My Mother viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor Assist Prof. Dr. Ay şegül Aksoy for her valuable guidance, advice, criticism, encouragements and insight throughout the research. I have felt fortunate due to study with her since she is so polite, humanist and an excellent instructor. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Bülent Topkaya, Prof. Dr. Habib Muhammeto ğlu, Prof. Dr. Ay şe Muhammeto ğlu, Prof. Dr. Narin Ünal and Assist Prof. Dr. Gönül T. İçemer for their suggestions, comments, encouragements and support. I would like to thank to the all members of Department of Environmental Engineering of Middle East Technical University. I would also like to thank Mr. Mustafa Kaya (Agricultural Engineer), Mr. Kemal Demirta ş, Mr. Ramazan Demir, Mrs. Aynur Yıldırım, Mrs. Güldane Kalkan, Mrs. Gül şen Erdem, Mr. Cemalettin Akın, Mr. Hulusi Gururi (Agricultural Engineer) and Mr. Hakan Moral for their suggestions, comments and support. I wish to thank to all my friends, especially Elif Bulut, Gülcan Sarp, Çi ğdem Açıkgil, Fadime Kara, Deniz Genç, Güray Do ğan, Fatma Öztürk, Mihriban Y. Civan, Sema Yurdakul, Gizem U ğurlu, Cavit Burak Bural, Hande Yükseler, Meltem Ünlü, Ni ğmet Uzal for their support. Finally, I would like to express my deepest appreciation to my mother Behice Gürbüz Gençaban, my grandmother Behice Kinik, my brothers Mustafa and Şevket Karaman, my uncle Rıdvan Gençaban and my aunt İncilay Özyüksel for their endless support, understanding, encouragement and patience not only during this study but also throughout my life. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .....................................................................................................iv ÖZ……….........................................................................................................vi DEDICATION................................................................................................viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.................................................................................ix TABLE OF CONTENTS...................................................................................x LIST OF TABLES..........................................................................................xiii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................ xiv CHAPTER......................................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................... 1 2. BACKGROUND........................................................................................ 3 2.1. Eutrophication ..................................................................................... 3 2.2. Lake Uluabat ....................................................................................... 6 2.3. General Description of the Model......................................................12 2.3.1. EUTRO ...................................................................................... 23 x 2.3.1.1. Phosphorus Cycle.................................................................24 2.3.1.2. Nitrogen Cycle..................................................................... 25 2.3.1.3. DO....................................................................................... 27 2.3.1.4. Phytoplankton Kinetics ........................................................28 3. METHODOLOGY...................................................................................30
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