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The 2008 Mortgage Crisis As a Déjà Vu of the Mortgage Meltdown of 1994
Business History ISSN: 0007-6791 (Print) 1743-7938 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/fbsh20 Failure to learn from failure: The 2008 mortgage crisis as a déjà vu of the mortgage meltdown of 1994 Natalya Vinokurova To cite this article: Natalya Vinokurova (2018): Failure to learn from failure: The 2008 mortgage crisis as a déjà vu of the mortgage meltdown of 1994, Business History, DOI: 10.1080/00076791.2018.1440548 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/00076791.2018.1440548 Published online: 27 Mar 2018. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 38 View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=fbsh20 BUSINESS HISTORY, 2018 https://doi.org/10.1080/00076791.2018.1440548 Failure to learn from failure: The 2008 mortgage crisis as a déjà vu of the mortgage meltdown of 1994 Natalya Vinokurova Management Department, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA ABSTRACT KEYWORDS This article traces the developments in the market for residential Financial crises; 2008 mortgage-backed securities (MBS) during the period 1970–2008. mortgage crisis; mortgage- Drawing on an analysis of trade publications, business press, and backed securities; tranching; interviews with practitioners, it shows that an MBS market meltdown prepayment risk; default risk; collateralised mortgage in 1994 provided clear signals of problems with MBS. The market obligation (CMO); 1994 participants did not re-evaluate their use of risk management tools mortgage meltdown; or adjust security design in response to the 1994 crisis, suggesting learning from failure a lack of understanding of the implications of the crisis. -
A Business Lawyer's Bibliography: Books Every Dealmaker Should Read
585 A Business Lawyer’s Bibliography: Books Every Dealmaker Should Read Robert C. Illig Introduction There exists today in America’s libraries and bookstores a superb if underappreciated resource for those interested in teaching or learning about business law. Academic historians and contemporary financial journalists have amassed a huge and varied collection of books that tell the story of how, why and for whom our modern business world operates. For those not currently on the front line of legal practice, these books offer a quick and meaningful way in. They help the reader obtain something not included in the typical three-year tour of the law school classroom—a sense of the context of our practice. Although the typical law school curriculum places an appropriately heavy emphasis on theory and doctrine, the importance of a solid grounding in context should not be underestimated. The best business lawyers provide not only legal analysis and deal execution. We offer wisdom and counsel. When we cast ourselves in the role of technocrats, as Ronald Gilson would have us do, we allow our advice to be defined downward and ultimately commoditized.1 Yet the best of us strive to be much more than legal engineers, and our advice much more than a mere commodity. When we master context, we rise to the level of counselors—purveyors of judgment, caution and insight. The question, then, for young attorneys or those who lack experience in a particular field is how best to attain the prudence and judgment that are the promise of our profession. For some, insight is gained through youthful immersion in a family business or other enterprise or experience. -
The Mortgage Market
Debt Instruments and Markets Professor Carpenter The Mortgage Market Concepts and Buzzwords • Mortgage lending • Collateral, RMBS, CMBS, originator, • Loan structures service, FRM, ARM, GPM, balloon, PTI, • Loan quality LTV, FICO, prime, Alt-A, jumbo, subprime, pass-through, WAM, WAC, IO, • Securitization PO, CMO, PAC, TAC, XS, OC, FHA, VA, • Agencies/GSEs GNMA, FNMA, FHLMC, private label, • MBS CDO, senior, subordinated, mezzanine, • The subprime story ABX, HPA, SPV, step-up rate Readings • Veronesi, Chapters 8 and 12 • Tuckman, Chapter 21 • Gorton, 2008, The Panic of 2007 • Acharya, et al., 2010, Guaranteed to Fail The Mortgage Market 1 Debt Instruments and Markets Professor Carpenter Mortgage • A mortgage is a loan secured by the collateral of some specific real estate property. • The mortgage obliges the borrower (mortgagor) to make predetermined series of payments. • The lender (mortgagee) has the right of foreclosure (can seize the property) if the mortgagor defaults. Typical Loan Structures • Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) – level monthly payments of principal and interest until maturity, typically 15 or 30 years. • Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) – monthly payments based on a floating interest rate, adjusted periodically, according to a pre- determined interest rate index. It usually also has interest rate caps. • Balloon mortgage – like FRM until balloon date when all principal comes due. • Graduated payment mortgage (GPM) – monthly payments increase over time. Borrower has the option to pay the loan off early (prepay) at pre- specified terms. The Mortgage Market 2 Debt Instruments and Markets Professor Carpenter The Mortgage Market 1930s–1960s • Before the crash of 1929, banks, S&Ls, and insurance companies originated and held residential mortgages. -
The Last 25 Years of CMBS: from Mega Deals to Miami Beach the Twists, Turns, Near-Misses and Memories of Building an Industry from Scratch
July 2019 CMBS Research The Last 25 Years of CMBS: From Mega Deals to Miami Beach The Twists, Turns, Near-Misses and Memories of Building an Industry from Scratch By Manus Clancy You might say, where there’s blood, there’s also rumor. The scuttlebutt in the CMBS industry was that some Heading into the summer of 1998, those who of the issuers were sitting on huge mark-to-market losses. The early issuers, like today, would warehouse helped create the CMBS market had every loans until they reached critical mass for bringing a deal reason to feel optimistic about the industry’s to market. They would hedge for interest rate risk, but future. The market was now several years old, spread-hedging was either non- existent or tricky. They also tended to warehouse for longer periods of time a number of banks had started “shelves” for than they do now, so the balance of loans on the firms’ issuing CMBS deals and the types of issues books would swell. had evolved from deals with just a few large As spreads blew out late in the summer of 1998, the loans to deals made up of hundreds of loans value of the loans being warehoused plummeted. The and balances totaling in the billions. spread widening was underscored by the miserable execution of Morgan Stanley Capital I Inc., 1998-CF1 (MSC 1998-CF1), which priced in August 1998 near the Lehman Brothers Commercial Trust, 1998-C1 (LBCMT height of the storm. 1998-C1), which amazingly still remains outstanding But the CMBS industry was not one to turn its back on more than 20 years later, was a case in point. -
Subprime Lending
5 SUBPRIME LENDING CONTENTS Mortgage securitization: “This stuff is so complicated how is anybody going to know?” .............................................................................. Greater access to lending: “A business where we can make some money”............. Subprime lenders in turmoil: “Adverse market conditions”.................................. The regulators: “Oh, I see” ................................................................................... In the early s, subprime lenders such as Household Finance Corp. and thrifts such as Long Beach Savings and Loan made home equity loans, often second mort- gages, to borrowers who had yet to establish credit histories or had troubled financial histories, sometimes reflecting setbacks such as unemployment, divorce, medical emergencies, and the like. Banks might have been unwilling to lend to these borrow- ers, but a subprime lender would if the borrower paid a higher interest rate to offset the extra risk. “No one can debate the need for legitimate non-prime (subprime) lending products,” Gail Burks, president of the Nevada Fair Housing Center, Inc., tes- tified to the FCIC. Interest rates on subprime mortgages, with substantial collateral—the house— weren’t as high as those for car loans, and were much less than credit cards. The ad- vantages of a mortgage over other forms of debt were solidified in with the Tax Reform Act, which barred deducting interest payments on consumer loans but kept the deduction for mortgage interest payments. In the s and into the early s, -
Liquidity Crises in the Mortgage Market
YOU SUK KIM RICHARD STANTON Federal Reserve Board University of California, Berkeley STEVEN M. LAUFER NANCY WALLACE Federal Reserve Board University of California, Berkeley KAREN PENCE Federal Reserve Board Liquidity Crises in the Mortgage Market ABSTRACT Nonbanks originated about half of all mortgages in 2016, and 75 percent of the mortgages insured by the FHA and the VA. Both shares are much higher than those observed at any point in the 2000s. In this paper, we describe how nonbank mortgage companies are vulnerable to liquidity pressures in both their loan origination and servicing activities, and we document that this sector in the aggregate appears to have minimal resources to bring to bear in an adverse scenario. We show how the same liquidity issues unfolded during the financial crisis, leading to the failure of many nonbank companies, requests for government assistance, and harm to consumers. The high share of nonbank lenders in FHA and VA lending suggests that the government has significant exposure to the vulnerabilities of nonbank lenders, but this issue has received very little attention in the housing reform debate. ost narratives of the housing and mortgage market crash in the late M2000s attribute it to house price declines, weak underwriting, and other factors that caused credit losses in the mortgage system. The Financial Conflict of Interest Disclosure: The authors received financial support for this work from the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. With the exception of the aforementioned, they did not receive financial support from any firm or person for this paper or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this paper. -
How Mortgage-Backed Securities Became Bonds: the Emergence, Evolution, and Acceptance of Mortgage-Backed Securities in the United States, 1960–1987
How Mortgage-Backed Securities Became Bonds: The Emergence, Evolution, and Acceptance of Mortgage-Backed Securities in the United States, 1960–1987 NATALYA VINOKUROVA This article documents the emergence, evolution, and acceptance of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by bond investors in the United States between 1968 and 1987. Drawing on an analysis of trade publications, securities prospectuses, and business press, I argue that MBS issuers’ eventual success at convinc- ing bond investors to accept their products is especially remark- able given that bond investors had rejected most types of MBS issued between 1970 and 1983. My analysis suggests that the acceptance of MBS as bonds was an outcome of two approaches employed by the MBS issuers: (1) changing the attributes of their products to make them more bond-like, and (2) changing the meaning of the bond category by opening its boundaries to prod- ucts that incorporated mortgage features. These two approaches © The Author 2018. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Business History Conference. doi:10.1017/eso.2017.45 NATALYA VINOKUROVA is an assistant professor of Management at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Her research focuses on decision making in frag- mented systems with a particular interest in the antecedents of the 2008 mortgage crisis. Her recent publications include: “Failure to Learn from Failure: The 2008 Mortgage Crisis as a Déjà Vu of the Mortgage Meltdown of 1994,” in Business History, and “State Terror as a Management Practice,” forthcoming, in Enterprise and Society. Management Department, the Wharton School, University of Penn- sylvania, 3620 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104. -
Informational Failures in Structured Finance and Dodd-Frank╎s •Œimprovements to the Regulation of Credit Rating Agenc
Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law Volume 17 Issue 3 Article 2 2012 Informational Failures In Structured Finance And Dodd-Frank’s “Improvements To The Regulation Of Credit Rating Agencies” Steven McNamara Follow this and additional works at: https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/jcfl Part of the Securities Law Commons Recommended Citation Steven McNamara, Informational Failures In Structured Finance And Dodd-Frank’s “Improvements To The Regulation Of Credit Rating Agencies”, 17 Fordham J. Corp. & Fin. L. 665 (2012). Available at: https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/jcfl/vol17/iss3/2 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by FLASH: The Fordham Law Archive of Scholarship and History. It has been accepted for inclusion in Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law by an authorized editor of FLASH: The Fordham Law Archive of Scholarship and History. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Informational Failures In Structured Finance And Dodd-Frank’s “Improvements To The Regulation Of Credit Rating Agencies” Cover Page Footnote Assistant Professor, Business Law, Olayan School of Business, the American University of Beirut; B.A., St. John’s College; Ph.D., Boston College; J.D., Columbia University School of Law. The author may be contacted at [email protected]. He wishes to thank his colleagues Ali Termos and Neil Yorke-Smith for comments and discussion during the course of preparation of this article. This article is available in Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law: https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/jcfl/vol17/ -
Weapons of Mass Destruction: OTC Derivatives and the 2008 Financial Crisis
Weapons of Mass Destruction: OTC Derivatives and the 2008 Financial Crisis Jesse Coker In 2002, Warren Buffet included a warning in his annual letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway which now seems eerily prophetic: “We view [derivatives] as time bombs, [as] financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal” (12, 14). These hidden dangers were painfully revealed in 2008 and 2009, when the ballooning housing, stock, and mortgage-backed security markets imploded simultaneously, bringing about the worst domestic recession since the Great Depression (“Financial Crisis Response”). Measured from 2006-2009, the “credit crisis” increased unemployment from 4.6% to over 10%, reduced US stock market capitalization by almost $5 trillion, decreased real gross private investment by a staggering 31.42%, and resulted in the federal government doling out over $1.1 trillion of aid to prevent the failure of well-established corporations including AIG, JPMorgan Chase, General Motors, and the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Kolb 261-269). Unraveling the complex series of events that created the financial crisis remains challenging, since “no single cause [of the crisis] can be identified” (Kolb xi). However, one factor lies at the center of this web of causality: over-the-counter, mortgage- backed derivatives. The 2008 financial crisis clearly illustrates how the unregulated over-the- counter (OTC) derivatives market has the inherent tendency and capacity to create securities capable of toppling financial markets. To begin, it is important to understand the basic types of derivatives and the two different markets in which they are traded. -
The Role for Government in the US Mortgage Market
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE FUTURE OF THE GOVERNMENT SPONSORED ENTERPRISES: THE ROLE FOR GOVERNMENT IN THE U.S. MORTGAGE MARKET Dwight Jaffee John M. Quigley Working Paper 17685 http://www.nber.org/papers/w17685 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 December 2011 We are grateful to the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2011 by Dwight Jaffee and John M. Quigley. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The Future of the Government Sponsored Enterprises: The Role for Government in the U.S. Mortgage Market Dwight Jaffee and John M. Quigley NBER Working Paper No. 17685 December 2011 JEL No. G01,G2,G28,H81,R21,R3 ABSTRACT This paper analyzes options for reforming the U.S. housing finance system in view of the failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as government sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The options considered include GSE reform, a range of possible new governmental mortgage guarantee plans, and greater reliance on private mortgage markets. The analysis also considers the likely consequences of adopting alternative roles for government in the U.S. -
Dennis Chao Professor Becker Econ 145 September 22, 2010
Dennis Chao Professor Becker Econ 145 September 22, 2010 Understanding the Causative Factors of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: An Examination of Current Literature Though we are bombarded with facts and figures about the recent financial crisis continuously, our understanding of the crisis evolves daily. We are constantly hypothesizing and revising ideas about causes and consequences of the crisis – many of which will not be confirmed for years to come: U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson, who was a former Wall Street banker, warned that the crisis is not short term and will be with us for a while (Callan, Grant, & Barber, 2007). In order to learn from past mistakes, it is critical that we attempt to develop a complete understanding of how and why this crisis occurred– the worst since the Great Depression, longer than those of 1973-1975 and 1981-1982 (Harding, 2010). This paper will examine and review current literature on the recent financial crisis, specifically, a history and overview of the financial innovations involved and a synthesis of the causes of the crisis. In order to fully understand the recent financial crisis, it is first necessary to examine both a general overview of the instruments involved as well as some brief history of the financial world. Listening to the news, one may have gleaned that economists have generally accepted that the recent financial crisis is largely connected to the collapse of the housing bubble. Along with this notion, a multitude of acronyms for financial instruments – MBS, CDOs – along with the phrase “subprime mortgages” come to mind. Kregel (2008) points to the government, particularly its formation of the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae), and the Federal National Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), as an important initial proponent of the housing bubble. -
Electronic Edition
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