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THE ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR PROGRAMMES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

Traditionally, decisions concerning investment in -generating plant in the UK have been based on an evaluation of the direct costs involved, namely capital and operating costs. Examination of many of the wider-ranging impacts such as environmental implications and possible health effects have often been given somewhat less emphasis within the decision-making process. This book attempts to correct this imbalance by integrating estimates of various indirect costs associated with the operation of both -fired and nuclear-power generating capacity into a social cost analysis.

Moreover, in an attempt to facilitate informed discussion ofsome ofthe more important issues relevant to the nuclear-power debate, this book also provides an interdisciplinary overview of several areas of legitimate public concern. In this respect, particular attention is paid to the involved in nuclear-reactor operation, the nature and development ofthe market, the 'economics' ofthe reprocessing option, and the environmental impact of radioactive emissions from nuclear-power plant.

It should be stressed that the author does not adopt either a pro- or anti­ nuclear standpoint, but rat her attempts to provide a means to raise the nuclear debate from an emotional to a more informed level.

Peter LIoyd Jones is Research Fellow in the Department of Political Economy at the University of Aberdeen. He was employed as a consultant to the Electricity Consumers' Council for the Sizewell inquiry in 1982-3. He has contributed articles to Economics, Energy Reviews and the International Journal 0/ Environmental Studies. THE ECONOMICS OF PROGRAMMES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM Peter Lloyd Jones

M MACMILLAN PRESS LONDON © Peter Lloyd Jones 1984 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1984 978-0-333-35095-9 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission.

First published 1984 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Companies and representatives throughout the world

ISBN 978-1-349-06776-3 ISBN 978-1-349-06774-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-06774-9 Contents

Acknowledgements vii Glossary of Abbreviations and Technical Terms ix List of Tables xvi List of Figures xix Introduction Nuclear Power Technology 4 2 The U ranium Market 28 3 The Economics of Nuclear- Reprocessing: A Case Study of the Windscale THORP plant 46 4 75 5 Social Cost Analysis of Coal and Nuclear Generating Plant 99 6 Concluding Remarks 152

Appendices 1 Note on Calculation of Capital Expenditure on the Proposed THORP Plant 154 2 Calculation of the Equivalent Cost of Yellow-cake Required to Replace Reprocessing Gains of Uranium and 155 3 A Comparison of -cycle Costs Quoted by BNFL with Those Obtainedfrom Other Sources 156 4 Supplementary Information on Measurement 159

References 161

Index 166 Acknowledgements

I should like to thank the following people, all of whom contributed, wittingly or not, to the completion of this book. First and foremost my supervisor, Professor David Pearce, who nursed this project through all aspects of the nuc1ear-power debate be fore guiding it to this final resting-place, and provided much needed motivation during numerous periods of doubt. In addition I have received invaluable assistance and advice from many individuals outside the confines of academia. In this respect special mention should be made ofDr P. M. S. Jones and his staff at the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority for guidance on technical matters, and Mr F. P. Jenkin of the Central Electricity Generating Board for helping to unravel the mysteries of the Board's accounting procedures. The nature of this has necessitated a strong reliance on the computing facilities at Aberdeen University, and I should like to thank Terry Rourke ofthe Computing Centre for his time and help in the early stages of this research, at a time when my computing ability was sadly lacking; also David Rose of the Political Economy Department for introducing me to the intricacies of the Financial Corporate Planning System (FCS) package, and David Munro ofthe Computing Centre for not erasing my computer files despite several threats. From a financial point of view, thanks are due to the Social Science Research Council, my mother, and the Aberdeen Branch of the National Westminster Bank without whose support none ofthis would have been possible, and I hereby pledge to repay my considerable debt to the latter as so on as possible. In addition to these people I must thank a number of others whose contributions, although less direct, were equally valuable. In particular, Julia Bickerstaffe, Lynne Edwards and Guy Doyle for introducing me to many of the references used throughout the two- period; also, my fellow postgraduates in the Department ofPolitical Economy both past and present for providing support and encouragement through informal discussions on many topics, and various flatmates for maintaining my vii viii Acknowledgements catTeine level at an optimum. Special mention should also be made ofDr Morag Horne, who bore the brunt of my ill-humour during the final stages of writing. Finally, to Mrs Winnie Sinclair, Mrs Phyl McKenzie and Miss Aileen Fraser I can only express the sincerest thanks for typing endless letters of inquiry and, of course, the final script.

Peter Lloyd Jones Aberdeen, Scotland Glossary of Abbreviations and Technical Terms

ABBREVIATIONS

AEA see UKAEA AGR advanced gas-cooled reactor ATWS anticipated transients without BNFL British Nuclear Limited BWR boiling-water reactor CAGR commercial advanced gas-cooled reactor CANDU Canadian -moderated natural uranmm­ fuelled reactor CDA Combined Development Agency CDFR commercial demonstration fast reactor CEA Commissariat cl l'Energie CEGB Central Electricity Generating Board CEQ Council on Environmental Quality CFR commercial fast reactor CHP combined and power DFR fast reactor DU denatured uranium EAR estimated additional resources ECCS emergency core cooling system ECSC European Coal and Steel Community Ekg refers to an 'equivalent' weight of a particular substance FBR fast - FP fission products FRF freshwater recreational fishing FRL Fisheries Radiological Laboratory GDP gross domestic product GW gigawatt (million kilowatts) GW(e) gigawatt e1ectric ix x Glossary

GWh giga GWy giga watt year HA high active HALW high-active liquid waste HARVEST Highly Active Residues Vitrification Engineering Studies HASW high-active solid waste HAW high-active waste HIP hot isotatic pressing HTR high-temperature reactor HWR heavy-water reactor IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICRP International Commission on Radiological Protection IDC interest during construction INFCE(P) International Evaluation (Programme) LA LW low-active liquid was te LASW low-active solid waste LEU low- LMFBR liquid-metal fast-breeder reactor LOCA loss of coolant accident LWR -water reactor MAFF Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food MALW medium-active liquid waste MASW medium-active solid waste MOX mixed-oxide fabrication MW megawatt (thousand kilowatts) MW(e) megawatt electric NCB National Coal Board NEA NIl Nuclear Installations Inspectorate NNC National Nuclear Corporation NPV net present value - the current value of a future stream of costs and benefits discounted at some rate of interest NRPB National Radiological Proteetion Board NUFCOR Nuclear Fuel Corporation (South Africa) NWS non-weapons state OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PFR prototype fast reactor PWR pressurised water reactor Glossary Xl

RAR reasonably assured resources RCEP Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution RTZ Rio Tinto-Zinc SC site construction SGHWR steam-generating heavy-water reactor SSEB South of Scotland Electricity Board THORP thermal-oxide reprocessing plant TkW tera kilowatt (10 12 kilowatts) TMI Three Mile Island UKAEA United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority UNSCEAR United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation USAEC United States Atomic Energy Commission WMP world market price WOCA World Outside Communist Alliance WPI Windscale Public Inquiry

TECHNICAL TERMS

Actinides Elements following actinium in the periodic table. They include , protactimium, neptunium, plutonium, americium, , berkelium and californium. Many of them are long-lived C(­ emitters. Bare spherical critical The quantity of compris­ ing the minimum radius required to sustain the chain reaction. Breed To form fissile nuclei, usually as a result of capture, possibly followed by . Breeder A reactor that is capable of producing more fissile material than it consumes. Breeding ratio The ratio ofthe number offissile nuclei created during fission to the number of fissile nuclei destroyed in the process. Burn-up Irradiation of nuclear fuel by in a reactor. It is measured in units of megawatt-days (of heat) per of uranium or plutonium. C Caesium. Caesium Particularly caesium 137. A fission product and biologically hazardous ß-emitter. Cave A working space for the manipulation of highly radioactive items; it is surrounded by a great thickness of concrete or other shielding and has deep protective windows. XlI Glossary

Cladding Material used to cover nuclear fuel in order to protect it and to contain the fission products formed during irradiation. Materials used include '', stainless steel, zircaloy, zirconium, grap­ hite/silicon carbide and zirconium/niobium alloy.

CO2 Carbon dioxide. Coolant Liquid (water, molten metal) or gas (carbon dioxide, , air) pumped through reactor core to remove the heat generated therein. Cooling pond A deep tank of water into which irradiated fuel is discharged upon removal from a reactor, there to remain until shipped for reprocessing. Core The central region of a reactor where the nuclear chain reaction takes place, and heat is thereby generated. Critical Of an assembly of nuclear fuel, that is just capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction. Decay Disintegration of a nucleus through the emission of radioactivity. Decay heat Heat generated by the radioactivity of the fission pro­ ducts, wh ich continues even after the chain reaction in a reactor has been stopped. Depleted Of uranium whose uranium 235 content is less than the 0.7 per cent that tends to occur naturally. Deuterium Hydrogen 2, heavy hydrogen; its nucleus consists of one plus one neutron rather than the one proton only of ordinary hydrogen. Dose The amount of energy delivered to a unit mass of a material by radiation travelling through it. Doubling time Of breeder reactors, the time taken for a particular design of reactor to double the quantity of fissile material in its inventory. Enrichment The process of increasing the concentration of the uranium 235 isotope in uranium beyond 0.7 per cent in order to make the fuel made from it more suitable for use in certain types of reactor. Fast Of neutrons, that they are travelling with a velocity close to that at which they were ejected from the fissioning nucleus. Fast reactor A reactor in which there is no moderator and in wh ich the nuclear chain is sustained by fast neutrons alone. Fertile Of material such as uranium 238 or thorium 232 wh ich can by neutron absorption be transformed into fissionable material. Fissile Of a nucleus, that it will fission readily if it is struck by and captures a neutron. Glossary xiii

Fission The splitting of a heavy nucleus into two or more parts, usually accompanied by arelease of energy. Fission product A nucleus of intermediate size formed from the breakdown or fission of a heavy nucleus such as that ofuranium. Such a nucleus will be highly radioactive and usually emits ß-particles. Fuel Material (such as natural or enriched uranium or uranium and/or plutonium dioxide) containing fissile nuclei, fabricated into a suitable form for use in a reactor. Fuel assembly, fuel element A single unit of fuel plus cladding which can be individually inserted into or removed from the reactor core. Fuel pin A single tube of cladding filled with pellets of fuel. Graphite A black compacted crystalline carbon, used as and reftector in some reactor cores. Half-Iife The period in which the number of nuclei of a particular type is reduced by radioactive decay to one-half. Heavy water Water in which the hydrogen atoms all consist of deuterium, the heavy stable isotope that is present to the extent of 150 parts per million in ordinary hydrogen. Helium A light, chemically inert gas used as coolant in high- temperature reactors. Hex Uranium hexaftuoride (UF6 ), a corrosive gas (above 56°C). Hot-cell see Cave. Irradiated Of reactor fuel, having been involved in a chain reaction, and having thereby accumulated fission products; in any application, exposed to radiation. Isotopes Two nuclei of the same chemical element that difTer only in their mass, e.g. uranium 235 and uranium 238. Krypton A chemically inert gas; the isotope krypton 85 is a direct fission product of the reprocessing stage of the nuclear fuel cycle. Light water Ordinary water, used as a moderator and coolant in light­ water reactors. Magnox A magnesium alloy used as fuel cladding in the first­ generation British gas-cooled reactors, consequently known as Magnox reactors. Mixed oxide A mixture of plutonium and uranium dioxides, used as the fuel in breeder reactors. Moderator A substance used to slow down neutrons emitted during in thermal reactors. Neutron An uncharged particle, constituent of nucleus, ejected at high energy during fission, capable of being absorbed in another nucleus and bringing about further fission or radioactive behaviour. XIV Glossary

Nuclear-fuel cycle The sequence of operations in which uranium is mined, fabricated into fuel, irradiated in a reactor, and either processed or stored. Nuclide An atom of an isotope having a defined energy state, not necessarily radioactive. Plutonium A heavy 'artificial' metal, made by neutron bombardment of uranium; fissile, highly reactive chemically, extremely toxic rJ.­ emitter. Power density A measure of the heat given off per unit in the reactor core, usually given in kilowatts per litre. Pu Plutonium. Radiation, nuclear Neutrons, or ß particles or y-rays which radiate out from radioactive substances. Reactivity Offuel, its ability to support a nuclear chain reaction; it is a function of the concentration of fissile atoms and inversely of the quantity of neutron-absorbing material present. Reprocessing The chemical separation of irradiated nuclear fuel into uranium, plutonium, and radioactive waste (mainly fission products). Separation factor A measure of the effectiveness of any process intended to separate two isotopes, such as 235U and 238U. Shielding Material interposed between a source of radioactivity and an operator in order to reduce the radiation dose. S02 Sulphur dioxide. Spent A term applied to fuel when it has been irradiated in a reactor for up to three and is reaching the stage of diminishing efficiency. Spiking The irradiation of fuel with the intent of making it difficult or impossible to divert from legitimate use. Tailings Crushed uranium ore from which the uranium has been extracted chemically. The division of a nucleus into three parts. Thermal Ofneutrons, that they are travelling with a speed comparable with that of gas molecules at ordinary temperatures. Thorium A fertile heavy meta!. Hydrogen 3 - nucleus contains one proton plus two neutrons; radioactive. It is genera in nuclear fuels by ternary fission. U Uranium Uranium The heaviest natural element, dark grey metal; isotopes 233 and 235 are fissile, 238 fertile; rJ.-emitter. Vitrification The incorporation of high-level wastes (mainly the Glossary xv

oxides of metals formed as fission products) into a glass, ce ramie or rock-like solid. Yellow-cake A mixture of the two oxides of uranium; a yellow powder. Zircaloy An alloy ofzirconium used as fuel cladding in CANDU and L WR reactors.

Radiation Terminology rx (alpha) particle A heavy, positively charged particle; the nucleus of a helium 4 atom containing two and two neutrons. ß (beta) particle An electron; a light, negatively charged particle. y (gamma) radiation Electromagnetic radiation of very short wavelength. rx-emitter A radioisotope emitting rx-particles. ß-emitter A radioisotope emitting ß-particles. y-emitter A radioisotope emitting y-radiation. List of Tables

LI Planned nuc1ear-power station construction in the UK to 2000 2 1.1 Characteristics of major reactor types 8 1.2 UK's Magnox reactors 9 1.3 UK AGR stations 10 1.4 The plutonium balance-sheet for a breeder reactor 12 1.5 Some characteristic data of enrichment 21 2.1 World uranium production in 1971 32 2.2 INFCE projections of nuc1ear capacities in WOCA by reactor type for the period up to 2000 34 2.3 Estimates of annual and cumulative re­ quirements for INFCE low-growth, 'throw-away' fuel-cyc1e strategy 34 2.4 Possible reductions in uranium requirements to meet a given demand owing to lower tails assays 35 2.5 Fuel requirements for uranium and plutonium recyc1e in thermal and breeder reactors 36 2.6 Estimated uranium resources by continent 37 2.7 Speculative resources listed by continent 39 2.8 Western US lignites containing low-grade uranium 40 2.9 Maximum attainable uranium production capabilities, 1980-2025 42 2.10 Uranium cartel's minimum price schedule for U 3 0 S of 29 May 1972 43 2.11 Minimum fixed prices: cost, insurance and freight (c.i.f.) any converter or enrichment delivery point 44 3.1 Spent fuel arisings 50 3.2 Capital expenditure for proposed THORP plant 52 3.3 Reprocessing route cost elements 53 3.4 Storage route cost elements 58 3.5 Dry-storage equivalent cost of yellow-cake required to replace reprocessing gains of uranium and plutonium 60 3.6 Net costs of reprocessing over storage 62 xvi List 0/ Tab/es xvii

3.7 Illustration of the effect of increases in capital expenditure for the dry-storage option on the NPV of THORP 65 3.8 The increase in NPV THORP (U + Pu) associated with a decrease in the cost estimate for mixed-oxide fuel fabrication 65 3.9 The effect on the NPV ofTHORP ofuranium price increases in excess of those assumed in the reference case 67 3.10 Plutonium required for CFR 68 3.11 A comparison of PWR and FBR reactors 70 3.12 Implied value of plutonium relative to fuel required for the uranium-only and uranium plus plutonium thermal recycJe scenarios 71 4.1 Radiation exposure of the UK population from all sources 75 4.2 Activity of 41Ar discharged to the atmosphere from UK power stations and resulting radiation exposure 78 4.3 Activity of 85Kr discharged to the atmosphere from the BNFL Windscale and Calder works and resulting radiation exposure for the years 1971-6 79 4.4 Activity of 1291 discharged to the atmosphere from the BNFL Windscale and Calder works and resulting radiation exposure for the years 1975-7 80 4.5 Activity of 3H discharged to the atmosphere from UK Magnox stations and resulting radiation exposure 81 4.6 Activity of 14C discharged to the atmosphere from UK Magnox stations and resulting radiation exposure 82 4.7 Forecast maximum annual tritium arisings from an AGR station 83 4.8 Radiation exposure of individuals resulting from the dis- charge of liquid radioactive effiuent from UK Magnox power stations 85 4.9 Estimates of current discharges and forecast MALW aris- ings for the year 2000 from oxide-fuel reprocessing 88 4.10 Annual activity of plutonium and americium isotopes discharged to the sea from the BNFL Windscale and Calder works 90 4.11 Annual dose equivalent to the UK population from dis- charges of radioactive effiuents 94 4.12 Estimates of radioisotopic arisings from nucJear-n:actor operations 95 4.13 Occupational radiation exposure: some typical recent values 97 5.1 Reference ca se cost estimates for 1000 MW generating plant 102 5.2 Capital cost estimates for PWR plant 106 XVlll List of Tab/es

5.3 Calculation of interest during construction (IDC) 110 5.4 Initial fuel requirements for nuclear plant 111 5.5 Nuclear fuel-cycle costs 112 5.6 Replacement fuel requirements for nuclear plant 114 5.7 Research and development expenditure in support of es- tablished generating technology 118 5.8 Electricity supplied - by type of plant 118 5.9 UKAEA research and development expenditure in support of latent generating technology 119 5.10 Estimated UK sulphur dioxide emissions from coal-fired plant compared to total emissions from all combustion processes in OECD countries 121 5.11 Estimates of total crop yield losses from S02 emissions 121 5.12 Annual cost estimates associated with the acidification of Scandinavian waters from all OECD sources 122 5.13 The efTect of risk/detriment cost relationship on the mo ne- tary value of the man- 126 5.14 Radiation exposure of CEGB/SSEB nuclear power-station workers, 1972-6 128 5.15 Maximum annual individual committed efTective dose equi­ valent from the operation of a 2000 MWe coal-fired power station 129 5.16 Accidents in NCB mines 130 5.17 Summary of results of the German risk study for nuclear power plants 132 5.18 Reference case annual operating costs for UK generating plant, 1980-2010 142 5.19 Electricity demand forecasts, 1979-2010 144 5.20 Net system operating savings 148 5.21 Capital expenditures incurred during construction periods 150 5.22 Net economic benefits to be derived from operating a nuclear-fuelled as against a coal-fired generating plant 151 6.1 Demand forecasts and required generating capacity for the year 2000 153 AU THORP capital expenditure estimates for years 1977-8 to 1~1~ 1~ A3.1 A comparison of nuclear fuel-cycle costs quoted by BNFL with those obtained from other sources 157 A4.1 U nits of measurement: prefixes and symbols 160 A4.2 Relationship between the new International System ofUnits (SI) and previous units of radiation measurement 160 List of Figures

1.1 The throw-away cycle 14 1.2 The uranium recycle 15 1.3 The uranium and plutonium recycle with reprocessing 16 1.4 The denatured uranium-thorium recycle 17 1.5 The fast-reactor launch cycle 24 1.6 The fast-reactor established cycle 25 1.7 The radioactive decay heating in discharged fast-reactor fuel 26 2.1 Uranium supply and demand schedules based on estimates given by INFCE 41 2.2 Historical price trend of uranium ore 43 5.1 Research and development cost-time functions for coal- fired generating plant and gas-cooled nuclear reactors 116 5.2 Research and development cost-time functions for fast- reactor systems and water-cooled nuclear reactors 117 5.3 Monetary value of the man-sievert at varying per caput dose equivalents 127 5.4 Complementary cumulative distribution function für early fatalities per year 133 5.5 Complementary cumulative distribution function for late fatalities per year 134 5.6 Reference case nuclear fuel-cost profile, 1980-2010 141 5.7 Derivation ofthe load duration curve for the CEGB system, 1979-80 146

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