THE ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMMES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM Traditionally, decisions concerning investment in electricity-generating plant in the UK have been based on an evaluation of the direct costs involved, namely capital and operating costs. Examination of many of the wider-ranging impacts such as environmental implications and possible health effects have often been given somewhat less emphasis within the decision-making process. This book attempts to correct this imbalance by integrating estimates of various indirect costs associated with the operation of both coal-fired and nuclear-power generating capacity into a social cost analysis. Moreover, in an attempt to facilitate informed discussion ofsome ofthe more important issues relevant to the nuclear-power debate, this book also provides an interdisciplinary overview of several areas of legitimate public concern. In this respect, particular attention is paid to the technology involved in nuclear-reactor operation, the nature and development ofthe uranium market, the 'economics' ofthe reprocessing option, and the environmental impact of radioactive emissions from nuclear-power plant. It should be stressed that the author does not adopt either a pro- or anti­ nuclear standpoint, but rat her attempts to provide a means to raise the nuclear debate from an emotional to a more informed level. Peter LIoyd Jones is Research Fellow in the Department of Political Economy at the University of Aberdeen. He was employed as a consultant to the Electricity Consumers' Council for the Sizewell inquiry in 1982-3. He has contributed articles to Energy Economics, Financial Times Energy Reviews and the International Journal 0/ Environmental Studies. THE ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMMES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM Peter Lloyd Jones M MACMILLAN PRESS LONDON © Peter Lloyd Jones 1984 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1984 978-0-333-35095-9 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission. First published 1984 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Companies and representatives throughout the world ISBN 978-1-349-06776-3 ISBN 978-1-349-06774-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-06774-9 Contents Acknowledgements vii Glossary of Abbreviations and Technical Terms ix List of Tables xvi List of Figures xix Introduction Nuclear Power Technology 4 2 The U ranium Market 28 3 The Economics of Nuclear-fuel Reprocessing: A Case Study of the Windscale THORP plant 46 4 Radioactive Waste 75 5 Social Cost Analysis of Coal and Nuclear Generating Plant 99 6 Concluding Remarks 152 Appendices 1 Note on Calculation of Capital Expenditure on the Proposed THORP Plant 154 2 Calculation of the Equivalent Cost of Yellow-cake Required to Replace Reprocessing Gains of Uranium and Plutonium 155 3 A Comparison of Nuclear Fuel-cycle Costs Quoted by BNFL with Those Obtainedfrom Other Sources 156 4 Supplementary Information on Radiation Measurement 159 References 161 Index 166 Acknowledgements I should like to thank the following people, all of whom contributed, wittingly or not, to the completion of this book. First and foremost my supervisor, Professor David Pearce, who nursed this project through all aspects of the nuc1ear-power debate be fore guiding it to this final resting-place, and provided much needed motivation during numerous periods of doubt. In addition I have received invaluable assistance and advice from many individuals outside the confines of academia. In this respect special mention should be made ofDr P. M. S. Jones and his staff at the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority for guidance on technical matters, and Mr F. P. Jenkin of the Central Electricity Generating Board for helping to unravel the mysteries of the Board's accounting procedures. The nature of this work has necessitated a strong reliance on the computing facilities at Aberdeen University, and I should like to thank Terry Rourke ofthe Computing Centre for his time and help in the early stages of this research, at a time when my computing ability was sadly lacking; also David Rose of the Political Economy Department for introducing me to the intricacies of the Financial Corporate Planning System (FCS) package, and David Munro ofthe Computing Centre for not erasing my computer files despite several threats. From a financial point of view, thanks are due to the Social Science Research Council, my mother, and the Aberdeen Branch of the National Westminster Bank without whose support none ofthis would have been possible, and I hereby pledge to repay my considerable debt to the latter as so on as possible. In addition to these people I must thank a number of others whose contributions, although less direct, were equally valuable. In particular, Julia Bickerstaffe, Lynne Edwards and Guy Doyle for introducing me to many of the references used throughout the two-year period; also, my fellow postgraduates in the Department ofPolitical Economy both past and present for providing support and encouragement through informal discussions on many topics, and various flatmates for maintaining my vii viii Acknowledgements catTeine level at an optimum. Special mention should also be made ofDr Morag Horne, who bore the brunt of my ill-humour during the final stages of writing. Finally, to Mrs Winnie Sinclair, Mrs Phyl McKenzie and Miss Aileen Fraser I can only express the sincerest thanks for typing endless letters of inquiry and, of course, the final script. Peter Lloyd Jones Aberdeen, Scotland Glossary of Abbreviations and Technical Terms ABBREVIATIONS AEA see UKAEA AGR advanced gas-cooled reactor ATWS anticipated transients without scram BNFL British Nuclear Fuels Limited BWR boiling-water reactor CAGR commercial advanced gas-cooled reactor CANDU Canadian deuterium-moderated natural uranmm­ fuelled reactor CDA Combined Development Agency CDFR commercial demonstration fast reactor CEA Commissariat cl l'Energie CEGB Central Electricity Generating Board CEQ Council on Environmental Quality CFR commercial fast reactor CHP combined heat and power DFR Dounreay fast reactor DU denatured uranium EAR estimated additional resources ECCS emergency core cooling system ECSC European Coal and Steel Community Ekg refers to an 'equivalent' weight of a particular substance FBR fast -breeder reactor FP fission products FRF freshwater recreational fishing FRL Fisheries Radiological Laboratory GDP gross domestic product GW gigawatt (million kilowatts) GW(e) gigawatt e1ectric ix x Glossary GWh giga watt hours GWy giga watt year HA high active HALW high-active liquid waste HARVEST Highly Active Residues Vitrification Engineering Studies HASW high-active solid waste HAW high-active waste HIP hot isotatic pressing HTR high-temperature reactor HWR heavy-water reactor IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICRP International Commission on Radiological Protection IDC interest during construction INFCE(P) International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation (Programme) LA LW low-active liquid was te LASW low-active solid waste LEU low-enriched uranium LMFBR liquid-metal fast-breeder reactor LOCA loss of coolant accident LWR light-water reactor MAFF Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food MALW medium-active liquid waste MASW medium-active solid waste MOX mixed-oxide fabrication MW megawatt (thousand kilowatts) MW(e) megawatt electric NCB National Coal Board NEA Nuclear Energy Agency NIl Nuclear Installations Inspectorate NNC National Nuclear Corporation NPV net present value - the current value of a future stream of costs and benefits discounted at some rate of interest NRPB National Radiological Proteetion Board NUFCOR Nuclear Fuel Corporation (South Africa) NWS non-weapons state OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PFR prototype fast reactor PWR pressurised water reactor Glossary Xl RAR reasonably assured resources RCEP Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution RTZ Rio Tinto-Zinc SC site construction SGHWR steam-generating heavy-water reactor SSEB South of Scotland Electricity Board THORP thermal-oxide reprocessing plant TkW tera kilowatt (10 12 kilowatts) TMI Three Mile Island UKAEA United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority UNSCEAR United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation USAEC United States Atomic Energy Commission WMP world market price WOCA World Outside Communist Alliance WPI Windscale Public Inquiry TECHNICAL TERMS Actinides Elements following actinium in the periodic table. They include thorium, protactimium, neptunium, plutonium, americium, curium, berkelium and californium. Many of them are long-lived C(­ emitters. Bare spherical critical mass The quantity of fissile material compris­ ing the minimum radius required to sustain the chain reaction. Breed To form fissile nuclei, usually as a result of neutron capture, possibly followed by radioactive decay. Breeder A reactor that is capable of producing more fissile material than it consumes. Breeding ratio The ratio ofthe number offissile nuclei created during fission to the number of fissile nuclei destroyed in the process. Burn-up Irradiation of nuclear fuel by neutrons in a reactor. It is measured in units of megawatt-days (of heat) per tonne of uranium or plutonium. C Caesium. Caesium Particularly caesium 137. A fission product and biologically hazardous ß-emitter. Cave A working space for the manipulation of highly radioactive items; it is surrounded by a great thickness of concrete or other shielding and has deep protective windows. XlI Glossary Cladding Material used