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Jpm at the Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials, Payments & Cre Conference JPM AT THE MORGAN STANLEY U . S . FINANCIALS, PAYMENTS & CRE CONFERENCE TRANSCRIPT June 14, 2021 MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Thanks, everybody, for joining me this morning. I do have to read a disclosure statement first, and then we will move on to the main attraction. For important disclosures, please see Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. With that out of the way, I'm pleased to have with us this morning, Jamie Dimon, who needs no introduction as Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase. Jamie, thanks so much for sharing some time with us this morning. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Betsy, thrilled to be here. Next time, in person. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC That sounds great. Your final Zoom meeting, hopefully. Okay. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Can be the end of them, yes. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Q Well, let's kick off with a few near-term questions before we dig into the strategy side. And on the one hand, rates continue to be very low, but on the other hand, as you mentioned in your shareholder letter, there is real inflation risk out there. And I'm wondering how you're positioning JPMorgan Chase in this environment. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. A Yeah. So, we do expect rates to stay low for a bit longer because the Fed has told us that. But you see, there are – if you look at our balance sheet, we have like $500 billion of cash and we've actually been effectively stockpiling more and more cash waiting for opportunity to invest in higher rates. So, our balance sheet is positioned that will benefit from rising rates both in the short end and the long run, and long rates. And that really depends on the decisions we make over the next six to nine months. But I do expect you're going to see higher rates and more inflation, and we're prepared for that. And of course, also, all things being equal, things aren't always equal. I think it’s also kind of like a very, very strong economy. And so, with very strong economy has other implications for us. We try to take all that into consideration when we manage the balance sheet. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Q So, what does that mean for your outlook for NII for 2021? I think you guided to $55 billion. Is that still intact? 2 ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. A It's $52.5 billion. So, you can change your models. I know it's a little disappointing, but sorry. And part of that, I'd say about half the difference is card balances being lower. That's not all bad. There's a huge offset – not a huge offset, a but partial offset in charge-offs, but I don't look at that as bad. I think the consumer is in unbelievably good shape. I’d call it, the pump is primed for the future and they will borrow again at one point. And the second half, I'd say, is mostly discretionary. We've just not been reinvesting a lot of proceeds. We waited. Mortgage prepayment's a little bit higher. You can reinvest those, too; we haven't. So, that's discretionary. And so, the run rate by the end of year maybe a little bit higher than $52.5 billion, but that's about where we are today. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Q So, the natural follow-up here is, what are the triggers for reinvesting from that liquidity pool into securities? What are you waiting for to say that? ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. A Well, you're making a good point. I mean, there’s a lot of discretion in securities. Obviously, loan is output. So, if cards go up then loans go up, we may see other loans go up a little bit. But that $500 billion of cash, you can invest $200 billion tomorrow and earn a lot more money on it. On the other hand, you would dramatically decrease your interest rate exposure to rising rates. And I think you need to protect yourself against rising rates. So, it's purely discretionary, and you’ll find out one day whether we made the right decision or not. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Q Okay. What about Markets? You've had this quarter a little bit more normalized markets, but there has still been some decent amount of volatility. How is IB and trading businesses trending so far this quarter? ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. A Yeah. So, remember the quarter last year was exceptional. Last quarter was exceptional. This quarter is what I call more normal, where you can plug in your model and make it really simple as like something a little bit north of $6 billion, which is still pretty good, by the way, and probably better than we told you last time. The last time we said more like 2019, I forgot what that number was, but plug-in number a little bit north of $6 billion. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Q $6 billion is for your trading revenues? ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. A All trading, yeah. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Q Okay. Fixed Income and Equities. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Jamie Dimon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. A Yes. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Betsy L. Graseck Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Q And then Investment Banking revenues is on top of that, obviously. .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
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