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Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2019-MEAD

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Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2019-MEAD Presale: Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2019-MEAD November 13, 2019 PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST Preliminary Ratings Sahil Kundra Centennial LTV ratio Market value Debt yield + 1 (303) 721 4203 Class Preliminary rating(i) Preliminary amount ($) (%)(ii) decline (%)(iii) (%)(iv) sahil.kundra A AAA (sf) 297,065,000 42.49 73.94 15.30 @spglobal.com X-A(v) AAA (sf) 297,065,000 (vi) N/A N/A N/A SECONDARY CONTACT B AA- (sf) 69,920,000 52.49 67.81 12.38 Dennis Q Sim New York C A- (sf) 52,440,000 59.99 63.21 10.83 (1) 212-438-3574 D BBB- (sf) 64,315,000 69.19 57.57 9.39 dennis.sim @spglobal.com E NR 100,510,000 83.57 48.75 7.78 RR interest(vii) NR 30,750,000 N/A N/A N/A This presale report is based on information as of Nov. 13, 2019. The ratings shown are preliminary. Subsequent information may result in the assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings. Accordingly, the preliminary ratings should not be construed as evidence of final ratings. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. (i)The rating on each class of securities is preliminary and subject to change at any time. The issuer will issue the certificates to qualified institutional buyers in line with Rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933. (ii)Based on S&P Global Ratings' value. (iii)Reflects the decline in the $735.9 million as-is appraised value that would be necessary to experience a principal loss at the given rating level. (iv)Based on S&P Global Ratings' net cash flow. (v)Interest-only. (vi)Notional balance. The notional amount of the class X-A certificates will be equal to the certificate balance of the class A certificates. (vii)Non-offered vertical risk retention certificates, which will be retained by Morgan Stanley Bank N.A. as the retaining sponsor. LTV ratio--Loan-to-value ratio, based on S&P Global Ratings' values. RR--Risk retention. N/A--Not applicable. NR--Not rated. Profile Expected closing Nov. 26, 2019. date Loan A $615.0 million five-year fixed-rate interest-only mortgage loan. Collateral The mortgage loan is secured by the fee interest in Park Meadows Mall, an approximately 1.6 million-sq.-ft. super regional shopping center located in Lone Tree, Colo., of which approximately 763,000 sq. ft. serves as collateral for the loan. Payment structure Principal payments will be made sequentially: first to the class A, then B, then C, then D, and then E certificates. The issuer will make interest payments on the certificates first to the class A and X-A certificates, pro rata, based on the interest due, and then sequentially to the class B, then C, then D, and then E certificates. Realized losses are allocated in reverse sequential order starting with the class E certificates. Principal and interest payments, as well as any realized losses, will be allocated pro rata to the certificates and the RR interest certificates based on their applicable percentage. www.standardandpoors.com November 13, 2019 1 © S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer 2338717 on the last page. Presale: Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2019-MEAD Profile (cont.) Mortgage loan Morgan Stanley Mortgage Capital Holdings LLC. originator, seller, and sponsor Borrower Park Meadows Mall LLC. (a recycled SPE). Borrower' sponsor Brookfield Property REIT Inc. Master Servicer Midland Loan Services, a division of PNC Bank N.A. Special servicer Midland Loan Services, a division of PNC Bank N.A. Trustee and Wells Fargo Bank N.A. certificate administrator RR--Risk retention. SPE--Special purpose entity. REIT--Real estate investment trust. Rationale The preliminary ratings assigned to Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2019-MEAD's commercial mortgage pass-through certificates series 2019-MEAD reflect S&P Global Ratings' view of the collateral's historic and projected performance, the sponsor's and manager's experience, the trustee-provided liquidity, the loan terms, and the transaction's structure. We determined that the mortgage loan has a beginning and ending loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 83.6%, based on S&P Global Ratings' value. Strengths The transaction exhibits the following strengths: - The mortgage loan has a strong debt service coverage (DSC) of 2.41x, calculated using the 3.19% fixed rate coupon and our in-place net cash flow (NCF) of $47.8 million for the property, which is 9.2% lower than the issuer's NCF. - The mortgage loan has a moderate leverage with an 83.6% LTV ratio, based on S&P Global Ratings' valuation. Our long-term sustainable value estimate is 38.7% lower than the appraiser's as-is valuation of $1.2 billion. Including mezzanine loan of $85.0 million, the S&P Global Ratings LTV ratio increases to 95.1%. - The mall generally maintains good market position within the respective trade area, and captures approximately 24% market share of general merchandise, apparel, furniture, and other miscellaneous (GAFO) sales. According to the appraiser, the primary trade area within a six-mile radius has an aggregate household income of approximately $17.0 billion, with an estimated $1.9 billion spent on GAFO items. The mall's ability to capture a high level of trade area sales is a good indication of the collateral's performance. - Based on sales information provided by the issuer, comparable sales, excluding Apple and Tesla for in-line tenants, has steadily held around $700 per sq. ft. with 2017 sales at $715 per sq. ft., 2018 sales at $695 per sq. ft., and trailing 12 months sales ending Sept. 30, 2019 at $701 per sq. ft. - The loan benefits from the property's good location, situated on 101.9 acres in the city of Lone Tree, Colorado, which is part of greater Denver core-based statistical area (CBSA) area. Located www.standardandpoors.com November 13, 2019 2 © S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer 2338717 on the last page. Presale: Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2019-MEAD in Douglas County, this area, according to the appraiser, has seen compound annual growth between 2000 to 2019 of 0.52% in population and 2.13% in average household income. The area is one of the primary commercial/retail hubs for the Denver CBSA. - The mortgage loan and mezzanine loan, along with sponsor equity of about $211.5 million, was used to recapitalize the ownership structure and refinance a prior mortgage loan totaling $360 million. Prior to the recapitalization, Brookfield Property REIT Inc. (BPR) owned 35.0% of the equity interests in the property in a joint venture with JP Morgan Asset Management. - The loan benefits from the institutional sponsorship of BPR (BBB-/Stable). BPR is headquartered in Chicago, owned by affiliates of Brookfield Asset Management, and ranks among the largest retail real estate companies in the U.S., with approximately $90.0 billion in total assets. - The collateral occupancy rate is approximately 96.3% as of September 2019. The in-line occupancy rate at the property has remained in the mid 90% range since 2015, ranging between 95.8% and 98.2%. The current occupancy as calculated by S&P Global ratings is 90.1%. The variance is primarily due to Forever 21 (31,596 sq. ft., 4.1%) that we have assumed to be vacant. - The property has a diverse tenant mix of over 130 tenants, ranging from national anchors (over 50,000 sq. ft.), major retailers (10,000 sq. ft. to 50,000 sq. ft.), and in-line retailers (less than 10,000 sq. ft.). The diverse income lowers the risk of sudden drops in the loan's capacity to meet its debt service obligations. Based on our calculation, no single tenant generates more than 4.0% of the in-place base rent. Dick's Sporting Goods and Crate & Barrel contribute the most to base rent by our calculation, with approximately 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively. - Recent re-leasing spreads for in-line and food court spaces in year-to-date 2019 are generally positive. Based on our calculations, the re-leasing spread was a positive 5.1% in 2019. Additional information on re-leasing spreads are discussed below in the Recent Property Leasing section. - Based on the appraiser's provided comparable malls, Park Meadows remains the dominant mall in the region, and we agree with this assessment. The appraiser noted Cherry Creek mall, The Streets at SouthGlen, Southwest Plaza, and Town Center at Aurora as the main competitive centers. However, with the exception of Cherry Creek, which has comparable performance to Park Meadows, all of the other competitors have lower sales per sq. ft. and higher vacancy rates. In addition, The Streets at SouthGlen and Town Center at Aurora have Sears as an anchor, which has either closed or is on the store closure list. - The transaction is structured so that the borrower is responsible for expenses that would typically result in shortfalls to the certificate holders, such as special servicing, work-out, and liquidation fees, as well as costs and expenses for appraisals and inspections that the special servicer conducts. In addition, if deemed recoverable from the liquidation proceeds, the servicer must make administrative advances to cover interest shortfalls from these expenses if the borrower does not make timely payments (provided the collateral has sufficient value), which we believe will help avoid or mitigate shortfalls to the certificate holders.
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