INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI)

Bharti AXA: Expensive but strategically sound

INDIA | Insurance | Company Report 23 Aug 2020

ICICI Lombard on 21st Aug 2020 entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Bharti AXA BUY (Maintain) General Insurance in an all stock deal, according to the scheme of arrangement ICICIGI will CMP RS 1292 issue 35.7mn shares to Bharti Enterprises (18.2 mn) and AXA Group (17.5mn) valuing the TARGET RS 1450 (+12%) company at Rs 46.1bn. The combined entity will have a market share of about 8.7% (based on FY20 premiums) with annual premium of Rs 164.5 bn. Proposed transaction is subject to SEBI CATEGORY: LARGE CAP various conditions precedent and regulatory approvals COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 454 Merger Rational: Transaction is expected to provide a significant opportunity for ICICI MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 585 Lombard to consolidate its market leading position in the non‐life insurance sector. Post MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 7.9 integration combined entity will have a market share of 8.7% (FY20) and will be third largest 52 ‐ WK HI/LO (RS) : 1440 / 806 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 17.9 non‐life insurer. Gain in market share will be predominantly in Motor‐OD and Marine PAR VALUE (RS) : 10 segment which have been focus area for Bharti AXA. Banca tie‐ups and OEMs relationship will further augment ICICIGI’s distribution strength. Combined entity will also benefit from SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % strategic partnership with Bharti and AXA group Jun 20 Mar 20 Dec 19 PROMOTERS : 51.9 55.9 55.9 FII / NRI : 31.9 26.0 26.4 Deal slightly on expensive side: According to agreement Bharti AXA GI is being valued at Rs FI / MF : 10.5 10.6 10.2 46.1bn or c.6.5x of its FY20 book value and at 1.0x of its FY20 Float. While this is c.30% NON PRO : 3.2 3.1 3.2 discount to ICICIGI’s valuation multiples, but given that Bharti AXA is a loss making entity PUBLIC & OTHERS : 4.3 4.4 4.4 (FY20: Loss of Rs 2.4bn) with a combined ratio of 120%, valuation seems to be on higher side in our view. Further cost of float of c.9.5% is higher than investment yield of c.8%. However PRICE VS. SENSEX deal makes sense from strategic point in our view as it will help ICICIGI to consolidate its 200 market leader position. Further Banca tie‐ups and Motor OEMs relationships of Bharti AXA 170 will provide ICICIGI inroads into some of the large retail banks and strengthen its position across OEMs thus provide long term growth opportunities. 140

Operating leverage and cost savings to bring down combined ratio: Higher combined ratio 110 for Bharti AXA is mainly on account of high expense ratio at 37% (advertisement, promotion 80 and IT expenses) compared to 24% for ICICIGI. Claim ratio is marginally higher at 78% compared to ICICIGI claim ratio of c.75%. Strong brand value, wide distribution network and 50 economies of scale offered by ICICIGI should provides significant headroom to bring down Jan‐18 Sep‐18 May‐19 Jan‐20 these costs over time and increase efficiencies resulting in lower combined ratio in our view. ICICI Lom BSE Sensex

Revenue Synergy to come from Banca tie‐ups and OEMs: Bharti AXA has tie‐up with 42 KEY FINANCIALS corporate agents (including 8 banca tie‐ups), of these only 10 are common (1 banca). Thus Rs bn FY20 FY21E FY22E ROE (%) 20.5% 21.1% 20.0% this deal will provide ICICIGI access to 7 more banca channel including some of large retail ROA (%) 3.4% 3.8% 3.9% banks such as HDFC bank and Axis bank. Further Bharti AXA has significant market share in Net Profit 11.9 14.6 16.6 several OEMs which could bring further revenue synergies. % growth 14% 23% 13% EPS (Rs) 26.3 32.2 36.5 th BVPS (Rs) 125.6 162.2 196.9 Tax benefit from unabsorbed losses: As of 30 June 2020, Bharti AXA had unabsorbed Combined Ratio 100.4% 98.9% 98.3% losses of Rs 15bn; ICICIGI will get tax benefits out of these losses as it will be carried forward P/E (x) 49.2 40.1 35.4 to resulting entity. While management has not given any guidance, we expect tax benefits to P/BV (x) 10.3 8.0 6.6 be spread over the years as these losses get absorbed. Source: Phillip Capital India Research

Sujal Kumar, Research Analyst Valuation and outlook: Strong brand value and resilient balance sheet should provide ICICGI ([email protected]) (combined entity) opportunity to capture market share and consolidate its position as market leader. Under current scenario we expect ICICIGI to disproportionately benefit from Manish Agarwalla, Research Analyst ([email protected]) any long‐term positives emerging for the industry. With solvency of weaker players under pressure we may witness price rationalization leading to better underwriting profitability. At the current price, the stock is trading at an FY21/FY22 PE of 40/35x and P/BV of 8.0/6.6x, with an RoE of 20%. We maintain BUY rating on the stock with TP of Rs 1,450 valuing stock at 7.4x FY22 BV of Rs 197

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Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker‐dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a‐6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA‐member broker‐dealer.

ICICI LOMBARD COMPANY UPDATE

Third largest Non Life insurer post merger Post integration, combined entity will have a market share of c.8.7% based on FY20 premiums. For 4M21, market share for combined entity has a market share of c.9.2% on Proforma basis.

Market share of non‐life insurers (FY‐20) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

Source: IRDAI, PhillipCapital India Research

Market share gain will predominantly be in Motor‐OD and Marine segment, where market share of combined entity will increase by c.2.5‐3.5%. In health segment while market share of Bharti AXA is relatively small, its share has been increasing over past few years. Bharti AXA has been largely focusing on group health which contributes c.70% of Bharti AXA’s total health GDPI.

Market Share by Segment FY20 4M21 Segment ICICI Lombard Bharti AXA Merged Entity ICICI Lombard Bharti AXA Merged Entity Fire 9.8% 1.4% 11.2% 11.2% 1.6% 12.8% Marine 13.8% 2.3% 16.1% 14.3% 2.4% 16.7% Motor OD 13.9% 3.3% 17.2% 13.2% 2.6% 15.8% Motor TP 7.3% 1.4% 8.7% 7.5% 1.2% 8.7% Health 5.5% 0.7% 6.2% 5.3% 0.8% 6.1% Crop 0.0% 2.6% 2.6% 0.6% 2.8% 3.4% Total 7.0% 1.7% 8.7% 7.8% 1.4% 9.2% Source: IRDAI, PhillipCapital India Research

Banca Tie ups and OEMs relationships to provide revenue synergy Banca tie‐ups and healthy market share in several OEMs is likely to provide significant revenue synergy. As shown in the table below ICICIGI has tie‐ups with 100 corporate agents (including 9 banks) compared to 42 tie‐ups for Bharti AXA (8 banks), excluding 10 common agents combined entity will have 132 tie‐ups. Deal will provide ICICIGI access to some of the large retail banks which has tie‐ups with Bharti AXA such as HDFC Bank, Axis bank and DBS Bank. Further strategic partnership with Bharti group will provide access to Airtel payment banks and could offer significant cross selling opportunity.

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ICICI LOMBARD COMPANY UPDATE

Revenue Synergy Corporate Agents ICICIGI Bharti AXA Common Merged Bank 9 8 1 16 Co‐op/ Gramin Bank 24 7 0 31 SFB 4 0 0 4 HFC 5 3 1 7 NBFC 26 10 4 32 Others 32 14 4 42 Total 100 42 10 132

Source: Investor Presentation, IRDAI, PhillipCapital India Research

Cost Synergy: Operating leverage and cost rationalisation As shown in the chart below, Bharti AXA has a combined ratio of 120% (FY20) largely on account of higher expense ratio at 37% compared to 24% for ICICIGI. On a closer look, higher expense ratio is mainly due to higher Advertisement and publicity cost, which accounted to c.45% of its total cost for FY20.

We believe strong brand value, wide distribution network and economies of scale offered by ICICI Lombard provides significant headroom to bring down these costs over time and increase cost efficiencies resulting in lower combined ratio.

Opex ratio is pushing Combined ratio higher Operating expenses breakup Claim Ratio Commission Ratio Expense Ratio Employee Cost Advertisement and Publicity 140% Information technology Other cost

120% 100% 100% 37% 22% 34% 29% 21% 24% 80% 80% 6% 8% 60% 60% 31% 45% 40% 77% 75% 78% 73% 40% 20% 20% 0% 33% 28% Bharti AXA ICICIGI Bharti AXA ICICIGI 0% FY19 FY20 FY19 FY20 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

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ICICI LOMBARD COMPANY UPDATE

Investment book and Asset Quality

As of March 2020, Bharti AXA had an investment book of Rs 47.5 bn. Post integration combined entity will have an investment book of c.Rs 310bn (FY20).

As shown in the chart below, investment book of Bharti AXA is largely focused debt securities and equity (incl mutual funds) constitutes c.8% of total investment book compared to c.11% for ICICIGI. Further within Debt securities Bharti AXA exposure is largely towards AAA rated.

Investment book breakup by Asset class… Rating profile of debt investment

Equity Preference Mutual Funds G‐Sec AAA AA or better State Gov Corporate Others Rated between AA and A Any other (Sovereign) 100% 100%

80% 80% 40% 40% 40% 52% 54% 60% 60% 2% 13% 11%

40% 9% 10% 40% 58% 49% 20% 48% 20% 24% 27% 3% 4% 0% 8% 4% 0% Bharti AXA ICICI Lombard Merged Entity ICICIGI Bharti AXA

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

As a result investment yield of Bharti AXA have been lower compared to ICICI Lombard, we would expect investment yield to also improve post integration as ICICIGI Investment management team takes over the fund management

Bharti AXA had to write‐off Rs 1.5bn of its investment book in FY20 due to its exposure towards troubled corporates such as Reliance Capital, DHFL and IL&FS. As of June 20, book value of its investments towards these entities is c.Rs 1.1bn and which will be needed to be provided in due course. As of June 2020 Bharti AXA had an GNPA ratio of 5.61% and Net NPA ratio of 1.87%

Investment Yield… Book value of Investment at troubled corporates (Rs mn)

Bharti AXA ICICIGI 600 551 12% 500 10% 400 352 8% 300 6% 200 4% 100 100 2% 0 Reliance Capital DHFL IL&FS 0% FY17 FY18 FY19 `FY20

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

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ICICI LOMBARD COMPANY UPDATE

Financials

Income Statement Valuation Ratios Y/E Mar, Rs bn FY19 FY20 FY21e FY22e FY19 FY20 FY21e FY22e Gross written premium 147.9 135.9 144.2 165.2 EPS (Rs.) 23.1 26.3 32.2 36.5 Net written premium 95.4 96.4 101.7 116.3 Dividend per share (Rs.) 5.0 5.4 6.0 6.5 Net Earned Premium 83.8 94.0 99.2 107.8 Book Value (Rs.) 124.6 125.6 162.2 196.9 Net Claims Incurred 63.1 68.5 69.4 77.3 P/E (x) 56 49 40 35 Commission Expense 2.2 3.6 4.7 4.6 P/B (x) 10.3 10.3 8.0 6.6 Operating Expenses 19.9 22.9 24.7 26.3 Underwriting Surplus/(Deficit) ‐1.5 ‐1.1 0.4 ‐0.4 Analytical ratio Investment income 18.0 20.1 20.5 23.8 Claim loss ratio 75.3% 72.9% 69.9% 71.8% Other Income 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.6 Expense ratio 20.9% 23.8% 24.3% 22.6% Provision and other expenses 1.07 3.27 2.07 1.88 Net Commission Ratio 2.3% 3.8% 4.7% 3.9% Profit Before Tax 16.0 17.0 19.5 22.1 Combined ratio 98.5% 100.4% 98.9% 98.3% Income tax 5.5 5.0 4.9 5.5 Retention ratio 64.5% 70.9% 70.5% 70.4% Net Profit 10.5 11.9 14.6 16.6 Solvency margin 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.2

DuPont analysis (%) Premium earned 26.5% 26.7% 25.5% 25.5% Balance Sheet Claims incurred 20.0% 19.5% 17.8% 18.3% Y/E Mar, Rs bn FY19 FY20 FY21e FY22e Commission paid 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% Share capital 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Investments 5.9% 6.0% 5.4% 5.8% Reserves and Surplus 48.7 56.8 68.1 81.1 Operating and other expense 6.3% 6.5% 6.3% 6.2% Networth 53.2 61.3 72.7 85.7 Provisions 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% Total Fair value change account 3.4 ‐4.3 1.0 3.8 Tax expense 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% Borrowing 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 RoA 3.3% 3.4% 3.8% 3.9% Current Liabilities 216.2 249.8 268.3 273.5 Leverage 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.1 O/W Premiums received in advance 13.4 30.5 22.9 0.3 RoE 20.9% 20.5% 21.1% 20.0% O/W Claims Outstanding 56.4 58.7 61.2 69.7 Growth rates Provisions 334.0 370.4 408.0 437.5 Gross premium 17% ‐8% 6% 15% Total Liabilities + Shareholder Equity Net Written premium 22% 1% 5% 14% Net premium earned 21% 12% 6% 9% 53.4 58.6 67.4 77.7 Net claims incurred 19% 9% 1% 11% Investments ‐ Shareholders 168.9 204.7 235.3 271.4 Commission paid ‐179% 63% 30% ‐4% Investments ‐ Policyholders 222.3 263.3 302.6 349.2 Operating expenses ‐6% 15% 8% 6% Total Investments 4.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 Investment Income 17% 12% 2% 16% Fixed Asset 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 PBT 34% 6% 15% 13% Deferred Asset 4.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 PAT 22% 14% 23% 13% Cash and bank balances 100.0 97.0 95.0 77.6 Advances and other assets 334.0 370.4 408.0 437.5

Total Asset FY19 FY20 FY21e FY22e Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

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ICICI LOMBARD COMPANY UPDATE

Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History

1600

1400 S (TP 1200)

1200 B (TP 1400)

1000 B (TP 1200)

800

600

400

200

0 S‐17 D‐17 M‐18 J‐18 S‐18 D‐18 M‐19 J‐19 S‐19 D‐19 M‐20 J‐20

Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. We have different threshold for large market capitalisation stock and Mid/small market capitalisation stock. The categorisation of stock based on market capitalisation is as per the SEBI requirement.

Large cap stocks Rating Criteria Definition BUY >= +10% Target price is equal to or more than 10% of current market price NEUTRAL ‐10% > to < +10% Target price is less than +10% but more than ‐10% SELL <= ‐10% Target price is less than or equal to ‐10%.

Mid cap and Small cap stocks Rating Criteria Definition BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price NEUTRAL ‐15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than ‐15% SELL <= ‐15% Target price is less than or equal to ‐15%.

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ICICI LOMBARD COMPANY UPDATE

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