Antibiotic Prophylaxis in Gastric, Biliary and Colonic Surgery

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Antibiotic Prophylaxis in Gastric, Biliary and Colonic Surgery Antibiotic Prophylaxis in Gastric, Biliary and Colonic Surgery H. HARLAN STONE, M.D., C. ANN HOOPER, B.S., B.A., LAURA D. KOLB, B.S., CAROL E. GEHEBER, B.S., E. JANELLE DAWKINS, B.S. Antibiotic prophylaxis for surgery has appeared indicated when- From the Joseph B. Whitehead Department of Surgery, ever likelihood of infection is great or consequences of such are Emory University School of Medicine, catastrophic. For better clarification, a prospective, randomized, 69 Butler St., S.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303 double-blind study was run on 400 patients undergoing elective gastric, biliary, and colonic operations. There were four treat- ment categories, with antibiotic being instituted 12 hours pre- operatively, just prior to operation, after operation, or not at all. were During operation, samples of blood, viscera, muscle, and fat were could then likewise be reduced if less hospital days taken for determination of antibiotic concentration. Both aerobic consumed and if reoperation for some complicating in- and anaerobic cultures were also taken of any viscus entered, fection were not as frequently required; while antibiotic peritoneal cavity, and incision. Similar cultures were run on all use might even be decreased if fewer postoperative postoperative infections. Results demonstrated that the incidence infections developed and, especially, if the duration of of wound infection could be reduced significantly by the preopera- antibiotic prophylaxis was cut to a bare minimum. tive administration ofantibiotic in operations on the stomach (22% to 4%), on the biliary tract (11% to 2%), and large bowel (16% to Nevertheless, potential harm resulting from routine 6%). Less impressive results were obtained for peritoneal sepsis. antibiotic therapy cannot be ignored. Drug toxicity, Initiation of antibiotic postoperatively gave an almost identical allergic reactions, and in particular the evolution of infection rate as if antibiotic had not been given (15% and 16%, resistant bacterial strains certainly appear to be potential respectively). if not actual significant threats. TrHE VALUE as well as dangers of prophylactic anti- biotics has been hotly debated for the past three Clinical Trial decades. Lack of concrete data, as might be derived from To evaluate these several aspects of prophylactic anti- either rigidly controlled laboratory studies or prospective biotic therapy as well as to confirm the already reported randomized clinical trials, has by no means limited these benefits of its application, a prospective randomized and arguments. Only the animal experiments of Burke4 and double-blinded study was carried out on the surgical relatively sophisticated clinical trials by Polk,10, Ledger,7 wards of Grady Memorial Hospital. After 20 months (the and a few others have given any true insight as to the trial period ending February 29, 1976), 400 consecutive benefits of such a program.1 3'4'8 9 All other supportive re- patients admitted for elective operations on the stomach, ports have primarily been emotional claims, based upon biliary tract, and/or colon had been enrolled in the study. either poorly or totally uncontrolled scientific evidence. The only exceptions to inclusion into the study were There are, in addition, other advantages that might be antibiotic therapy with parenteral or orally absorbable gained through the administration of prophylactic anti- agents during the 10 days immediately preceding opera- biotics. Hospital beds possibly could be conserved tion, conditions present that already demanded antibiotic through a shortened average patient stay. Hospital costs prophylaxis (i.e., heart valve disease), known allergy to a cephalosporin, and an age of less than two years. Pa- tients colon surgery, however, did receive 1 Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Surgical Associa- undergoing tion, New Orleans, Louisiana, April 7-9, 1976. gm of oral neomycin every 4 to 6 hours for two days Supported in part by a grant from Eli Lilly and Company. prior to operation as well as 500 mg of erythromycin 443 444 STONE AND OTHERS Ann. Surg. o October 1976 base every 6 hours for 24 hours preoperatively. Routine of the contents of the organ subjected to operation, attempts were made to preclude any consideration of the peritoneal cavity, and the subcutaneous portion of the antibiotic prophylaxis with respect to decision for incision at the time of closure. Sensitivity testing was operation, procedure performed, and general postoper- subsequently run on all aerobic isolates to the 30 mcg ative care. disc of cefazolin.2 Antibiotic Administration Followup Each patient was given an intramuscular injection of Postoperatively, all patients were carefully followed for either antibiotic (I gm of tefazolin) or placebo (equiv- evidences of infection developing within the abdomen alent volume of diluent) on the evening before opera- and/or surgical incision. In addition, complicating infec- tion, on call to the operating room and on that same tions in other areas were specifically noted. Appropriate evening after return to either the ward or the intensive aerobic and anaerobic cultures were taken from all sites care unit, on the morning of the day following surgery, of known as well as even suspected sepsis. Aerobic and again during the evening of the first postoperative bacterial isolates were also tested for sensitivity to the day (Fig. 1). Scaled down doses were used for children, prophylactic antibiotic, i.e., cefazolin, at a 30 mcg disc with weight being the prime determinant. The solutions size.2 for injection had previously been assembled in patient Complications of drug therapy, other postoperative number packets, so that there were five vials in each pack problems, total as well as postoperative hospital stay, and each vial was coded as to time when it should be all details related to indications for surgery, type of given. Details in randomization were unknown to all con- operation, general status of the patient, and, finally, cerned with patient care, although the master key was eventual outcome were faithfully recorded. These items readily available in the event that a possible drug or were later used to confirm the purity of the randomiza- infectious complication demanded that the code be tion process plus the identification of any significant broken. influence, other than the prophylactic antibiotic, on the Drug dosage had been set up so that equal numbers incidence of subsequent infection. of patients had their prophylactic antibiotic initiated approximately 12 hours preoperatively, one hour prior to Results operation, or within an hour following completion of the operation (Fig. 1). Twenty-five per cent of the patients At the completion of the clinical trial, there were 100 received no antibiotic at all. When given, cefazolin was patients for analysis in each treatment category. Gastric administered in three consecutive injections for a total surgery had been performed on 96, a biliary tract dose of 3 gms over a period of approximately 24 hours. procedure on 131, and colon surgery on 190-thereby No other antimicrobial was given thereafter, that is, giving a total of 417 operations. The extra 17 were ac- unless an established infection could be documented counted for by the fact that these patients had had a or the patient's clinical course became highly suggestive surgical procedure carried out in two, rather thanjust one, of a developing septic complication. area of study. Ages ranged from 2 to 86 years, with an average of47.6. Sampling During Operation There were 179 males and 221 females; 312 were Negro, while 88 were Caucasian. No significant difference At surgery, 9 specific specimens could were taken. An at- be found between the four assigned treatment groups tempt was generally made to obtain all samples within with respect to type of operation, a indication for surgery, few minutes of each other. Once the abdomen had been age, sex, or race. opened, both peripheral as well as portal venous blood There were four postoperative deaths, three of which were drawn for determination of antibiotic blood levels. occurring in patients who had Likewise, liquid had two procedures done contents ofthe organ ofoperation (gastric at the one operation. Otherwise, no major difference was juice, bile, and/or colon contents) were obtained for apparent between the several therapy categories. similar analyses of antibiotic concentration. A modified well-diffusion technique was used for these studies.13 Antibiotic Distribution Biop§ies of viscera resected as well as abdominal wall muscle and subcutaneous fat were also taken. These Concentrations of cefazolin were not significantly specimens were immediately frozen and then sent at inter- different when portal was compared to peripheral venous vals to the Lilly Research Laboratories for determina- blood (Table 1). The average value was 13.7 mcg/ml. tion of antibiotic tissue concentration. Administration of cefazolin 8 to 12 hours prior to Finally, both aerobic and anaerobic cultures were taken operation gave approximately 40% higher tissue levels Vol. 184oNo. 4 ANTIBIOTIC PROPHYLAXIS 445 PRE-OP DAY OF POST-OP GROUP DAY 1 OPERATION DAY A GROU l|AM PM-t AM |PM ||AM |PE FIG. 1. Times of antibiotic administration. Placebo in- jections are indicated by an I x x x 0 0 "O"; cefazolin was given at times marked by an "X." Ii 0 X X X 0 III 0 0 X X X IV 0 0 0 0 0 than if the antibiotic had been started a mere hour pre- lactic antibiotic had been started preoperatively (Table 2). operatively (Table 1). Concentrations of cefazolin in sub- Results were much more impressive with procedures on cutaneous fat were less than half that of the blood when- the colon than for operations on the stomach and biliary ever antibiotic therapy had been instituted only an hour tract. However, no real difference could be discerned before hand. In fact, antibiotic concentrations in fat and in between the two groups receiving preoperative cefazolin, bowel wall were consistently below values discovered in that is, between those patients having such therapy other tissues.
Recommended publications
  • Estimating the Instantaneous Asymptomatic Proportion with a Simple Approach: Exemplified with the Publicly Available COVID-19 Surveillance Data in Hong Kong
    ORIGINAL RESEARCH published: 03 May 2021 doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.604455 Estimating the Instantaneous Asymptomatic Proportion With a Simple Approach: Exemplified With the Publicly Available COVID-19 Surveillance Data in Hong Kong Chunyu Li 1†, Shi Zhao 2,3*†, Biao Tang 4,5, Yuchen Zhu 1, Jinjun Ran 6, Xiujun Li 1*‡ and Daihai He 7*‡ 1 2 Edited by: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China, JC 3 Catherine Ropert, School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China, Chinese University of 4 Federal University of Minas Hong Kong (CUHK) Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong 5 Gerais, Brazil University, Xi’an, China, Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada, 6 School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Reviewed by: Hong Kong, China, 7 Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China Mohammad Javanbakht, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Iran Background: The asymptomatic proportion is a critical epidemiological characteristic Changjing Zhuge, that modulates the pandemic potential of emerging respiratory virus, which may vary Beijing University of Technology, China *Correspondence: depending on the nature of the disease source, population characteristics, source–host Daihai He interaction, and environmental factors. [email protected] Xiujun Li Methods: We developed a simple likelihood-based framework to estimate the [email protected] instantaneous asymptomatic proportion of infectious diseases. Taking the COVID-19 Shi Zhao epidemics in Hong Kong as a case study, we applied the estimation framework [email protected] to estimate the reported asymptomatic proportion (rAP) using the publicly available † These authors share first authorship surveillance data.
    [Show full text]
  • Globalization and Infectious Diseases: a Review of the Linkages
    TDR/STR/SEB/ST/04.2 SPECIAL TOPICS NO.3 Globalization and infectious diseases: A review of the linkages Social, Economic and Behavioural (SEB) Research UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research & Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) The "Special Topics in Social, Economic and Behavioural (SEB) Research" series are peer-reviewed publications commissioned by the TDR Steering Committee for Social, Economic and Behavioural Research. For further information please contact: Dr Johannes Sommerfeld Manager Steering Committee for Social, Economic and Behavioural Research (SEB) UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) World Health Organization 20, Avenue Appia CH-1211 Geneva 27 Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] TDR/STR/SEB/ST/04.2 Globalization and infectious diseases: A review of the linkages Lance Saker,1 MSc MRCP Kelley Lee,1 MPA, MA, D.Phil. Barbara Cannito,1 MSc Anna Gilmore,2 MBBS, DTM&H, MSc, MFPHM Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum,1 D.Phil. 1 Centre on Global Change and Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK 2 European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition (ECOHOST) London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK TDR/STR/SEB/ST/04.2 Copyright © World Health Organization on behalf of the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases 2004 All rights reserved. The use of content from this health information product for all non-commercial education, training and information purposes is encouraged, including translation, quotation and reproduction, in any medium, but the content must not be changed and full acknowledgement of the source must be clearly stated.
    [Show full text]
  • 2019 Maryland STI Annual Report
    November 2020 Dear Marylanders, The Maryland Department of Health (MDH) Center for STI Prevention (CSTIP) is pleased to present the 2019 Maryland STI Annual Report. Under Maryland law, health care providers and laboratories must report all laboratory-confirmed cases of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis to the state health department or the local health department where a patient resides. Other STIs, such as herpes, trichomoniasis, and human papillomavirus (HPV), also affect sexual and reproductive health, but these are not reportable infections and therefore cannot be tracked and are not included in this report. CSTIP epidemiologists collect, interpret and disseminate population-level data based on the reported cases of chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis and congenital syphilis, to inform state and local health officials, health care providers, policymakers and the public about disease trends and their public health impact. The data include cases, rates, and usually, Maryland’s national rankings for each STI, which are calculated once all states’ STI data are reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The CDC then publishes these data, including state-by-state rankings, each fall for the prior year. The 2019 report is not expected to be released until early 2021 because of COVID-related lags in reporting across the country. The increases in STIs observed in Maryland over the past 10 years mirrors those occurring nationwide, and the increasing public health, medical and economic burden of STIs are cause for deep concern. The causes for these increases are likely multi-factorial. According to CDC, data suggest contributing factors include: Substance use, poverty, stigma, and unstable housing, all of which can reduce access to prevention and care Decreased condom use among vulnerable groups Shrinking public health resources over years resulting in clinic closures, reduced screening, staff loss, and reduced patient follow-up and linkage to care services Stemming the tide of STIs requires national, state and local collaboration.
    [Show full text]
  • Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem
    Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem Charles F. Manski Francesca Molinari The Institute for Fiscal Studies Department of Economics, UCL cemmap working paper CWP20/20 Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem Charles F. Manski Department of Economics and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University and Francesca Molinari Department of Economics, Cornell University April 26, 2020, forthcoming in the Journal of Econometrics Abstract As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of cumulative population infection by the SARS CoV-2 virus are lower than actual rates of infection. Hence, reported rates of severe illness conditional on infection are higher than actual rates. Understanding the time path of the COVID-19 pandemic has been hampered by the absence of bounds on infection rates that are credible and informative. This paper explains the logical problem of bounding these rates and reports illustrative findings, using data from Illinois, New York, and Italy. We combine the data with assumptions on the infection rate in the untested population and on the accuracy of the tests that appear credible in the current context. We find that the infection rate might be substantially higher than reported. We also find that the infection fatality rate in Illinois, New York, and Italy is substantially lower than reported. Acknowledgements: We thank Yizhou Kuang for able research assistance. We thank Mogens Fosgerau, Michael Gmeiner, Valentyn Litvin, John Pepper, Jörg Stoye, Elie Tamer, and an anonymous reviewer for helpful comments. We are grateful for the opportunity to present this work at an April 13, 2020 virtual seminar at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University.
    [Show full text]
  • Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance 2011
    Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance 2011 Division of STD Prevention December 2012 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention Division of STD Prevention Atlanta, Georgia 30333 Acknowledgments Publication of this report would not have been possible without the contributions of the state and territorial health departments, sexually transmitted disease control programs, regional infertility prevention projects, and public health laboratories that provided surveillance data to CDC. This report was prepared by the following CDC staff: Damarys Cordova, Elaine Flagg, Sarah Kidd, Robert Kirkcaldy, Eloisa Llata, Mark Stenger, John Su, Elizabeth Torrone, Hillard Weinstock, and Susan Bradley, Jim Braxton, Delicia Carey, Darlene Davis, LaZetta Grier, Alesia Harvey, Kathleen Hutchins, Rob Nelson, and Fred Rivers, the Epidemiology and Surveillance Branch and the Statistics and Data Management Branch, respectively, of the Division of STD Prevention, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention. ii STD Surveillance 2011 Copyright Information All material contained in this report is in the public domain and may be used and reprinted without special permission; however, citation as to source is appreciated. Suggested Citation Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance 2011. Atlanta: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; 2012. Web Site The online version of this
    [Show full text]
  • Early Real-Time Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Emerging Infectious Diseases
    PHYSICAL REVIEW X 2, 031005 (2012) Early Real-Time Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Emerging Infectious Diseases Bahman Davoudi,1 Joel C. Miller,2 Rafael Meza,1 Lauren Ancel Meyers,3 David J. D. Earn,4 and Babak Pourbohloul1,5,* 1Mathematical Modeling Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada 2Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA 3Section of Integrative Biology, Institute for Cellular and Molecular Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA 4Department of Mathematics & Statistics and the M. G. DeGroote Institute of Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada 5School of Population & Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (Received 22 July 2011; revised manuscript received 6 April 2012; published 30 July 2012) When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information during the early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a reliable estimate for the basic reproduction number, R0. Over the past few years, infectious disease epidemic processes have gained attention from the physics community. Much of the work to date, however, has focused on the analysis of an epidemic process in which the disease has already spread widely within a population; conversely, very little attention has been paid, in the physics literature or elsewhere, to formulating the initial phase of an outbreak. Careful analysis of this phase is especially important as it could provide policymakers with insight on how to effectively control an epidemic in its initial stage.
    [Show full text]
  • The Type-Reproduction Number of Sexually Transmitted Infections Through Heterosexual and Vertical Transmission Hiromu Ito 1,2, Taro Yamamoto1 & Satoru Morita 3,4*
    www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN The type-reproduction number of sexually transmitted infections through heterosexual and vertical transmission Hiromu Ito 1,2, Taro Yamamoto1 & Satoru Morita 3,4* Multiple sexually transmitted infections (STIs) have threatened human health for centuries. Most STIs spread not only through sexual (horizontal) transmission but also through mother-to-child (vertical) transmission. In a previous work (Ito et al. 2019), we studied a simple model including heterosexual and mother-to-child transmission and proposed a formulation of the basic reproduction number over generations. In the present study, we improved the model to take into account some factors neglected in the previous work: adult mortality from infection, infant mortality caused by mother-to-child transmission, infertility or stillbirth caused by infection, and recovery with treatment. We showed that the addition of these factors has no essential efect on the theoretical formulation. To study the characteristics of the epidemic threshold, we derived analytical formulas for three type-reproduction numbers for adult men, adult women and juveniles. Our result indicates that if an efcient vaccine exists for a prevalent STI, vaccination of females is more efective for containment of the STI than vaccination of males, because the type-reproduction number for adult men is larger than that for adult women when they are larger than one. Although sex is a private and pleasurable activity, it may result in disease1. Largely because of human instinct, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) have continued to exist alongside human beings for a long time. In fact, STIs were described in ancient records such as the Ebers Papyrus and the Old Testament of the Bible in Leviticus 15: 2–332.
    [Show full text]
  • Prevention of Hospital-Acquired Infections World Health Organization
    WHO/CDS/CSR/EPH/2002.12 Prevention of hospital-acquired infections A practical guide 2nd edition World Health Organization Department of Communicable Disease, Surveillance and Response This document has been downloaded from the WHO/CSR Web site. The original cover pages and lists of participants are not included. See http://www.who.int/emc for more information. © World Health Organization This document is not a formal publication of the World Health Organization (WHO), and all rights are reserved by the Organization. The document may, however, be freely reviewed, abstracted, reproduced and translated, in part or in whole, but not for sale nor for use in conjunction with commercial purposes. The views expressed in documents by named authors are solely the responsibility of those authors. The mention of specific companies or specific manufacturers' products does no imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the World Health Organization in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. WHO/CDS/CSR/EPH/2002.12 DISTR: GENERAL ORIGINAL: ENGLISH Prevention of hospital-acquired infections A PRACTICAL GUIDE 2nd edition Editors G. Ducel, Fondation Hygie, Geneva, Switzerland J. Fabry, Université Claude-Bernard, Lyon, France L. Nicolle, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada Contributors R. Girard, Centre Hospitalier Lyon-Sud, Lyon, France M. Perraud, Hôpital Edouard Herriot, Lyon, France A. Prüss, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland A. Savey, Centre Hospitalier Lyon-Sud, Lyon, France E. Tikhomirov, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland M. Thuriaux, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland P. Vanhems, Université Claude Bernard, Lyon, France WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION Acknowledgements The World Health Organization (WHO) wishes to acknowledge the significant support for this work from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
    [Show full text]
  • Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States, 2019
    ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE THREATS IN THE UNITED STATES 2019 Revised Dec. 2019 This report is dedicated to the 48,700 families who lose a loved one each year to antibiotic resistance or Clostridioides difficile, and the countless healthcare providers, public health experts, innovators, and others who are fighting back with everything they have. Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States, 2019 (2019 AR Threats Report) is a publication of the Antibiotic Resistance Coordination and Strategy Unit within the Division of Healthcare Quality Promotion, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Suggested citation: CDC. Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States, 2019. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, CDC; 2019. Available online: The full 2019 AR Threats Report, including methods and appendices, is available online at www.cdc.gov/DrugResistance/Biggest-Threats.html. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc:82532. ii U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Contents FOREWORD .............................................................................................................................................V EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ VII SECTION 1: THE THREAT OF ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE ....................................................................1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................3
    [Show full text]
  • Estimating SARS-Cov-2 Infections from Deaths, Confirmed Cases, Tests
    Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections from deaths, confirmed cases, tests, and random surveys Nicholas J. Ironsa and Adrian E. Rafterya,b,1 aDepartment of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; and bDepartment of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 Contributed by Adrian E. Raftery, June 16, 2021 (sent for review February 17, 2021); reviewed by Mary Bassett and Constantin T. Yiannoutsos There are multiple sources of data giving information about the infections on each day since March 2020 in Indiana and Ohio. number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have We then leverage our results from these states to build a model major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For for confirmed cases that accounts for preferential testing as a example, the number of confirmed cases largely underestimates function of the cumulative number of tests administered in each the number of infections, and deaths lag infections substan- state. This allows us to pin down the IFR and infection counts for tially, while test positivity rates tend to greatly overestimate the vast majority of states that have not conducted representative prevalence. Representative random prevalence surveys, the only testing surveys. putatively unbiased source, are sparse in time and space, and the Our simple Bayesian model takes inspiration from Johndrow results can come with big delays. Reliable estimates of popula- et al. (5), although it differs in significant ways. Whereas tion prevalence are necessary for understanding the spread of the Johndrow et al. model the effect of social distancing measures virus and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies.
    [Show full text]
  • Estimating COVID-19 Prevalence and Infection Control Practices Among US Dentists
    Original Contributions Estimating COVID-19 prevalence and infection control practices among US dentists Cameron G. Estrich, MPH, PhD; Matthew Mikkelsen, MA; Rachel Morrissey, MA; Maria L. Geisinger, DDS, MS; Effie Ioannidou, DDS, MDS; Marko Vujicic, PhD; Marcelo W.B. Araujo, DDS, MS, PhD ABSTRACT Background. Understanding the risks associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome corona- virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission during oral health care delivery and assessing mitigation strategies for dental offices are critical to improving patient safety and access to oral health care. Methods. The authors invited licensed US dentists practicing primarily in private practice or public health to participate in a web-based survey in June 2020. Dentists from every US state (n ¼ 2,195) answered questions about COVID-19eassociated symptoms, SARS-CoV-2 infection, mental and physical health conditions, and infection control procedures used in their primary dental practices. Results. Most of the dentists (82.2%) were asymptomatic for 1 month before administration of the survey; 16.6% reported being tested for SARS-CoV-2; and 3.7%, 2.7%, and 0% tested positive via respiratory, blood, and salivary samples, respectively. Among those not tested, 0.3% received a probable COVID-19 diagnosis from a physician. In all, 20 of the 2,195 respondents had been infected with SARS-CoV-2; weighted according to age and location to approximate all US dentists, 0.9% (95% confidence interval, 0.5 to 1.5) had confirmed or probable COVID-19. Dentists reported symptoms of depression (8.6%) and anxiety (19.5%). Enhanced infection control procedures were implemented in 99.7% of dentists’ primary practices, most commonly disinfection, COVID-19 screening, social distancing, and wearing face masks.
    [Show full text]
  • Estimating the True (Population) Infection Rate for COVID-19: a Backcasting Approach with Monte Carlo Methods Steven J
    medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.12.20098889; this version posted May 18, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . Estimating the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: A Backcasting Approach with Monte Carlo Methods Steven J. Phipps1,*, R. Quentin Grafton2, and Tom Kompas3 1College of Sciences and Engineering, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia 2Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia 3Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia *[email protected] ABSTRACT Differences in COVID-19 testing and tracing across countries, as well as changes in testing within each country over time, make it difficult to estimate the true (population) infection rate based on the confirmed number of cases obtained through RNA viral testing. We applied a backcasting approach, coupled with Monte Carlo methods, to estimate a distribution for the true (population) cumulative number of infections (infected and recovered) for 15 countries where reliable data are available. We find a positive relationship between the testing rate per 1,000 people and the implied true detection rate of COVID-19, and a negative relationship between the proportion who test positive and the implied true detection rate. Our estimates suggest that the true number of people infected across our sample of 15 developed countries is 18.2 (5–95% CI: 11.9–39.0) times greater than the reported number of cases.
    [Show full text]