Investor Update August 2018
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Investor Update August 2018 NYSE: PSX www.phillips66.com Bayway Refinery, Linden, NJ Cautionary Statement This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. Words and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to the operations of Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP (including their respective joint venture operations) are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about these entities, their interests and the energy industry in general on the date this presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements can be found in filings that Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP make with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP are under no obligation (and expressly disclaim any such obligation) to update or alter these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of the websites of Phillips 66 and Phillips 66 Partners LP. 1 Diversified Downstream Company Marketing & Midstream Chemicals Refining Specialties Integrated Midstream 50% Interest in CPChem Diversified Refining Portfolio Stable, High-return Network Businesses Location Advantaged Investing in Quick Payout Pursue Organic and M&A Chemicals Portfolio Projects Enhancing U.S. Fuels Opportunities Brands USGC Petchem Project Footprint Offers Opportunities PSXP as a Growth Vehicle Complete for Midstream Growth 2 Executing Strategy Leading Operating Excellence Growth CPChem USGC petrochemicals assets Gray Oak Pipeline Sweeny Hub Beaumont Terminal Returns Refinery yield and feedstock flexibility projects U.S. Marketing re-imaging Distributions 27% dividend CAGR since 2012 $14.1 B in total share repurchases/exchanges High-Performing Organization Vacuum Tower, Billings Refinery, Billings, MT See appendix for footnotes. 3 Operating Excellence Total Recordable Rates Refining Environmental Metrics (Incidents per 200,000 Hours Worked) (No. of events) Industry Average ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 317 302 279 264 242 123 Phillips 66 CPChem DCP Midstream 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H 2018 Operating Costs and SG&A Refining Capacity Utilization ($B) (%) Adjusted Op. Costs and SG&A Turnaround Costs Planned Maintenance & Turnarounds 5% 6% 3% 4% 5% 2% 5.4 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.8 93% 94% 91% 96% 95% 94% 2.9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H 2018 See appendix for footnotes. 4 Environmental, Social, Governance Board engaged in setting company ESG Industry Safety Metrics (Incidents per 200,000 Hours Worked) strategy 6 Extensive ESG engagement 4 2 Record low reportable environmental events 0 Agricul., Food All Construction Prof. Petroleum Petchem. Phillips 66 Crop Manufact. Manufact. & Bus. Refining Manufact. Investing in forward-looking research and Prod. Services development technology Phillips 66 SOx, NOx, PM Emissions (Thousand tonnes) Promoting inclusive and diverse workforce 30 Committed to corporate and local 25 philanthropic programs 20 15 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 See appendix for footnotes. 5 U.S. Crude Oil and Gas Plant NGL Production Bakken 8 Rockies 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 0 Midcontinent 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 8 6 Permian 4 8 2 6 0 4 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2 0 Eagle Ford 8 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 6 4 2 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: BTU Analytics, July 2018 6 Midstream Macro Environment U.S. Crude Oil Export Volume (MMBD) U.S. Clean Product Exports (MMBD) 1.5 2.5 2.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 U.S. LPG Export Volume (MMBD) Phillips 66 2018 Export Capacity (MMBD) 1.2 2.0 Propane Butane 1.5 0.6 1.0 1.8 0.5 Thousands 0.0 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Clean Products Crude LPG Total Source: EIA, annual averages data through May 2018, Petroleum Monthly 7 Chemicals Macro Environment U.S. Ethane Demand Global PE Capacity and Demand (MMBD) (MMTA) 2.5 Exports 150 Capacity Base Ethane Petchem & Price-sensitive Demand 2.0 Flexible Feedstock 100 1.5 1.0 50 0.5 0.0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: I.H.S., Ethane Demand as of May 2018. 8 Refining Macro Environment Global Clean Product Demand (MMBD) Global clean product demand 70 Diesel expected to grow, driven largely by Jet Gasoline diesel 60 50 Global utilization rates expected in 40 low-80s, with U.S. refining in low-90s 30 20 Strong U.S. utilization due to cost and reliability advantages, and growing 10 export demand 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: I.H.S., April 2018 9 Integrated Midstream Network 10 Midstream Transportation 21,000 miles of US pipeline systems 40 finished product terminals 38 storage locations 19 crude oil terminals 5 LPG terminals and 1 petroleum coke exporting facility NGL and Other 200,000+ BPD fractionation capacity 200,000 BPD LPG export capacity 2,600+ miles of pipelines 125,000 BPD vacuum distillation capacity DCP Midstream Beaumont Terminal, Nederland, TX 61 natural gas processing facilities with 7.8 BCFD net capacity 63,000 miles of natural gas pipeline systems 11 Midstream Growth Platform for growth Sweeny Hub Gray Oak Pipeline South Texas Gateway Terminal Beaumont Terminal Sand Hills Pipeline expansion Bayou Bridge Pipeline Lake Charles Pipeline Project Lake Charles Isomerization Unit See appendix for map key. 12 Sweeny Hub Expansion $1.5 B expansion of Sweeny Hub 2 x 150 MBD NGL fractionators 6 MM bbls expansion of PSXP’s NGL storage capacity Y-grade NGL feedstock supply agreements with firm volume commitments secured Purified products will be marketed via Freeport LPG Terminal Freeport LPG Terminal, Sweeny, TX New assets leverage and enhance existing infrastructure 13 Phillips 66 Partners Distribution Growth (cents/common unit) Achieved 2018E annualized run-rate $1.1 B adjusted EBITDA in 2Q18 Organic growth opportunities 75.2 71.4 67.8 64.6 61.5 58.6 30% distribution CAGR 2013-2018 55.8 50.5 53.1 45.8 48.1 42.8 40.0 37.0 34.0 30.2 31.7 27.4 Top quartile growth post-2018 21.3 22.5 See appendix for footnotes. 14 DCP Midstream DJ Basin 0.8 Bcf/d Well positioned in low-cost supply basins processing capacity Strong growth projects around existing footprint Sand Hills NGL Pipeline expansions to 425 MBD in 2Q 2018, 485 MBD by the end of 2018 Permian Mid-continent 1.3 Bcf/d 1.8 Bcf/d DJ Basin gathering and processing infrastructure processing processing expansions of 200 MMCFD in Aug. 2018 with another capacity capacity 200 MMCFD in service 2Q 2019 Gulf Coast Express Permian ~2 BCFD natural gas JV pipeline expected in service 4Q 2019 Stable distributions to LP unit holders and South 2.3 Bcf/d resumed distributions to owners processing capacity See appendix for footnotes. 15 Feedstock Advantaged Chemicals Portfolio Worldwide U.S. Gulf Net Ethylene Coast Capacity: 6,410 kMTA U.S. Net Ethylene Capacity: 5,285 kMTA Middle East Saudi Net Ethylene Qatar Capacity: Arabia 1,125 kMTA As of June 30, 2018 16 CPChem CPChem USGC Ethane Cracker, Cedar Bayou, TX Olefins and Polyolefins Specialties, Aromatics and Styrenics 11,245 kMTA/year North America capacity 2,710 kMTA/year North America capacity 2,510 kMTA/year Middle East capacity 1,050 kMTA/year Middle East capacity USGC Petrochemicals assets started up 15 North American facilities 5 Middle East facilities As of June 30, 2018 17 Chemicals Outlook 2018E Average Ethylene Production Cost Curve Middle East ethane and North ($/Tonnes) America NGLs remain positioned at the low end of the cost curve N.A. M.E. Naphtha Naphtha 1,000 Asia Coal Asia Naphtha W. Europe Ethylene demand growth outpacing M.E. Naphtha LPG W. Europe global GDP LPG 500 Asia LPG N.A. LPG N.A. Ethane Expect demand growth to rapidly M.E. Ethane 0 balance new capacity additions 0 50 100 150 200 Cumulative Production - Million Metric Tons Source: I.H.S., July 2018. Enhancing Returns in Refining and Marketing 19 Refining and Marketing Refining 13 refineries in U.S. and Europe In 5 U.S. PADDs 2,146 MBD crude capacity 35% heavy, 30% light, 35% medium crude mix Marketing 9,000+ global sites, including 5,700 wholesale outlets 1,700+ re-imaged sites since 2015 Sweeny Refinery, Sweeny, TX 20 Enhancing Refining Returns Improving returns projects PSX Global Clean Product Yield Wood River FCC modernization (complete) 85.5% Bayway FCC modernization (complete) 84.6% 84.4% 84.6% 84.1% 83.6% Lake Charles crude flexibility (4Q 2018) Lake Charles isomerization unit (3Q 2019)* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H 2018 Sweeny FCC optimization (2Q 2020) U.S. Refining Capacity Utilization ~ 25 other low-cost, high-return projects Increasing clean product yield 88%93% 90%94% 91%91% 90%96% 91%95% 91%94% Top tier refinery utilization rates 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H 2018 U.S.