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Premise Ramadan Report 2021 Ramadan 2021 A COVID-19 Global Impact Study PPremiseremise CContributorontributor PPhoto:hoto: TThehe SSheikhheikh ZZayedayed GGrandrand MoMosquesque iinn AAbubu DDhabihabi Executive Summary Ramadan 2021 was a different experience than in years past for the nearly two billion Muslims around the world who celebrate. While parts of the world are starting to re-open, the COVID-19 pandemic is still very much impacting all of our lives and forcing everyone to make adjustments to how they celebrate even the holiest of days. Much like we did last year, Premise engaged our contributor network around the world to gauge the impact of the ongoing pandemic on Ramadan. Through our survey, which reached over 25,000 contributors in 31 countries, we asked a number of questions around the holiday and the enduring impact of COVID-19, surfacing insights regarding: ■ How are Muslims celebrating Ramadan this year? ■ Is the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to impact how Muslims observe the holiday? ■ Are we seeing a change in contributor behavior surrounding Ramadan compared to last year when Ramadan was celebrated during the early stages of the pandemic, especially with vaccinations becoming more widespread? Key Judgements Here’s what we learned: ■ COVID-19 continues to have a major impact on holiday observance: 70% of respondents indicating the virus is impacting their plans. ■ Life is returning to some semblance of normalcy: Despite high levels of concern surrounding the continued pandemic, Premise contributors are significantly more inclined to participate in community events and other public celebrations compared to last year. This is despite high levels of concern around the ongoing pandemic and may represent increased risk due to low global vaccination rates. ■ Behaviors differ by country: Contributors in North Africa report they are less likely to change plans due to COVID, however, people in other countries have had to adjust their behavior around the holiday due to a variety of factors. For instance, Lebanon, which is dealing with a political and economic crises from the failure to form a government in addition to concerns around the pandemic, saw the largest drop-off in celebration over the last year. India, meanwhile, has found itself enduring a second wave of COVID cases, which is likely causing residents there to take more precautions around their celebrations and observances. Ramadan in the COVID Era Nearly two billion of the world’s Muslims look We received over 25,000 submissions within to celebrate the month of Ramadan, which lasts 2 weeks, from 31 countries, demonstrating from April 12th-May 12th 2021 following a year of Premise’s unparalleled ability to discover ground uncertainty brought on by the ongoing COVID-19 truth across a wide range of communities and Pandemic. geographies. As one of the five pillars of Islam, Ramadan is Ramadan is traditionally a time when Muslims, typically celebrated by fasting during the day and across the world, congregate in large numbers eating and drinking only at night. It culminates with friends and family for community events. in Eid al-Fitr, which ushers in the new month To understand the impact of COVID-19, Premise of Shawwal. Like everything else, this year’s Contributors provided insight into special observance was severely impacted by the precautions that were being followed, and which COVID-19 pandemic, which forced many Muslims communities across the world are eschewing to change the way the holiday is observed. those precautions, which may be an indicator of potential prolonged outbreaks. A rich Iftar dinner spread in Malaysia. A colorful Fanous Ramadan in Egypt. How are Premise contributors Celebrating (or not)? Roughly 70% of respondents said that COVID-19 will feature of Ramadan, remains the most popular form impact their plans this holiday. This is reinforced with of observance. Highlighting the extent of continued a majority of respondents reporting that they have concerns about how to safely celebrate in the midst at least thought about cancelling plans with friends of an ongoing pandemic, nearly 20% of respondents or family. Fasting, arguably the most well-known indicated they are ‘staying home.’ Breaking fast and reading in Indonesia. Prayer in Morocco. Are contributors still worried about COVID-19? The fact that many contributors are continuing to crisis in India is reflected in our data, with over stay home comes as no surprise given continued 80% of users extremely or very concerned about levels of concern about COVID-19. In nearly every COVID-19. In contrast, our Balkan contributors are country surveyed, most respondents indicated that less concerned than average, potentially due to they are either extremely or very concerned about higher vaccination rates, particularly in Serbia. the ongoing pandemic. The impact of the current Do vaccination rates play a role in levels of concern? Our data suggests the impact of vaccination is ambiguous, or perhaps under the threshold where it might have an impact. What is notable, however, is the extent to which Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates stand out from the other countries we polled, likely a result of economic means and opportunity. How have patterns evolved over the last year? Despite ongoing concerns about COVID-19 across appears to be no correlation between vaccination the countries we surveyed, comparing our data from rates and respondents’ propensity to engage in last year to this year tells a clear and concerning community events. In other words, contributors in story: Premise contributors are less inclined to largely unvaccinated countries are just as likely to stay home and more inclined to engage in public engage in public activity as those in countries with activities this year, a potential vector for the further greater vaccine availability. spread of COVID-19. Of particular concern, there Iftar dinner outside in Sharjah, UAE Celebratory street decor in Egypt. North Africa and Middle Eastern Countries differ in both vaccination rates and willingness to adjust plans for COVID. The two countries in our report with the highest likely to have received at least one dose of the incidence of plans to celebrate Ramadan publicly vaccine. If a rise in COVID-19 cases is observed in were Algeria and Nigeria. Nearly 1-in-5 of North Africa during and following Ramadan that is respondents from those countries indicated they not observed in the Middle Eastern countries, public would be attending mosque and/or community spread during Ramadan could be a contributing events part of their celebration plans. Premise factor. has found North Africa to have both a high propensity for communal celebration and fewer Looking regionally, Middle Eastern respondents are accommodations for COVID. far more likely than North African ones to indicate that their Ramadan plans will be affected by COVID “Our World in Data” indicates that those two considerations. Notably many Southeast Asian countries have particularly low vaccination rates1, countries recently tightened travel restrictions in a notable contrast to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf order to limit Ramadan-driven COVID-19 spread. States. Saudi contributors indicated a similar intention to celebrate publicly, but are much more 1(4-28-2021) https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/data/vaccinations/vaccinations.csv “My Ramadan plans are being affected by COVID-19” 83% 41% (Blue = greater impact, Red = lesser impact) Desperate times in Lebanon. Many forgoing Ramadan this year. Lebanon indicated a higher percentage of people disrupted the traditions and gatherings usually not celebrating Ramadan this year than any other celebrated during Ramadan: country. Nearly a third of respondents (29%) from ■ 40% said not celebrating this year. 2/3rds Lebanon who reported that they typically celebrate attributed that directly to COVID Ramadan, will not be this year. This is three times higher than the global average. ■ 60% are ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ concerned about the spread of COVID-19 in their community during Ramadan. A large proportion of this is directly attributed to 4 COVID, two-thirds (insert percent) of those Lebanese ■ 3% of the country is vaccinated. respondents indicated COVID played some role in their calculation. But this also coincides with rising inflation and food insecurity throughout the country.2 The Lebanese pound currency lost 90 percent of its value since 2019.3 Mr. Ferid Belhaj, Vice President of the Middle East Region of the World Bank, has stated that as of February 14th 2021, 45 percent of the country resides below the poverty line. Soaring food prices, bans on Iftar events, political deadlock, the coronavirus, and the aftermath of the massive explosion at its largest port last year are all contributing to a situation which has significantly 2https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/17/lebanon-faces-tough-ramadan-amid-soaring-food-prices 3https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/lebanese-inflation-hits-record-high-as-food-prices-soar-400 4https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/lebanon/ Conclusion Our data on Ramadan 2021 paints a global picture of a truly global event, demonstrating its reach and of adaptation to COVID and warns of potential unique capability to discover what’s happening hot spots as vaccines are rolled out, particularly in on the ground around the world. We will continue Northwest Africa. Communities across the Muslim to track how communities combat and cope with world are returning to more public observance COVID as the pandemic continues -- and hopefully of the holiday this year, but we see a mosaic of draws to an end. regional patterns and nuances. Premise’s contributor network has provided a granular, localized picture A beautiful mosque in Tripoli, Lebanon. About Premise Premise provides visibility, attribution, and on-the-ground insights in key markets in a matter of days, not weeks. Our unique combination of global contributors and advanced machine learning [email protected] provides you with Data for Every Decision™.
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