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ANZ RESEARCH

FX INSIGHT

6 May 2016

INR: WEAKNESS ’MAY’ BE HERE FOR A WHILE

resulted in a surge in foreign inflows into the Indian equity market, helping to propel INR higher.



The INR is one of the worst performing currencies in May, historically.

FIGURE 2. INR’S MAY WEAKNESS IS CONSISTENT

An unusual absence of auspicious wedding dates in May this year may not be sufficient to prevent INR weakness from repeating.

8
Rupee appreciates against USD
6

4

2



INR’s close correlation with the equity market

means it is vulnerable to signs of domestic slowdown and any reassessment of US Fed rate hikes.

0
-2 -4

With the currency on the rich side, INR’s

diminishing positive reaction to rate cuts and slow reform progress also pose risks to the currency, in our view.

-6 -8
Rupee depreciates against USD

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

We maintain our year-end USD/INR forecast of 68.5.

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Research

In our view, the INR May effect is due to a tendency for the highest number of auspicious wedding dates to fall within that month, which leads to a rise in gold demand and other associated spending (INR: Indian

weddings and the impact on Rupee, 9 May 2013). It

is perhaps no coincidence that we tend to see a peak in gold import volumes occurring in April and May (see Figure 3).

SELL IN MAY SEEMS TO APPLY TO INR

The INR is typically one of the weakest performing currencies in May. Figure 1 shows the average FX spot returns against the USD over the period 2000- 2015 for the G10 and Asian currencies. Not only does the INR post the largest average spot loss at 1.3%, but it also depreciates with consistent regularity during May.

FIGURE 3. INDIAN GOLD IMPORT VOLUMES BY

  • MONTH (% OF CALENDAR YEAR TOTAL)
  • FIGURE 1. INR IS HISTORICALLY THE WEAKEST

CURRENCY IN MAY (2000-2015)

12

10

8

0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
-0.2 -0.4 -0.6

-0.8 -1.0 -1.2

-1.4

6420
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Sources: Haver, Bloomberg, ANZ Research
Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Research

However, the number of auspicious days (Vivah Shubh Muhurat) varies each year, and in 2016 we have an unusual situation where there are no such days in May (see Figure 4). In fact, between May and October this year, there are no auspicious wedding days at all, suggesting there could be some pent-up demand in the final two months of the year.
Since 2000, INR has weakened in 12 out of the last 16 years, which means historically there has been a 75% chance of it depreciating during May (see Figure 2). It normally takes some kind of major external event to prevent the rupee from weakening in May. For instance, the landslide election victory in May

2014 by Narendra Modi’s BJP party resulted in a

surge of foreign portfolio inflows which lifted Indian asset prices and resulted in the INR rallying. In 2009, a sharp rebound in global equity markets off the lows seen during the global financial crisis

FX Insight / 6 May 2016 / 2 of 5

FIGURE 4. AUSPICIOUS INDIAN WEDDING DAYS BY MONTH (2016 COMPARED TO HISTORICAL AVERAGE)

Then there is the prospect for global market volatility when the market starts to price in a resumption of US Federal Reserve rate hikes. The rally in the Sensex and the INR since February was driven mostly by delayed Fed rate hike expectations, which can easily turn around.

14

12

10

8

FIGURE 6. INDIA PMI AND BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATOR EASING

64

65 60 55 50

45

40
16 14 12 10 8

20

  • Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
  • Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Average auspicious days in the month since 2000 Number of auspicious days in 2016

6

Sources: www.drikpanchang.com, ANZ Research

4

So could a lean wedding season in May this year prevent INR weakness from repeating? Looking at history, this may not be the case. In previous years when there had been very few auspicious wedding days during May, we still saw a decline in the INR.

2

0-2

  • 07
  • 08
  • 09
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12
  • 13
  • 14
  • 15
  • 16

  • PMI (LHS)
  • Business cycle indicator (RHS)

KEEP AN EYE ON THE EQUITY MARKET

Sources: Haver, Bloomberg, ANZ Research

Our economists expect the RBI to remain on hold for the rest of this year. However, even if a rate cut materialises, it may only have limited positive impact on the INR, judging from its recent reaction. The 5 April rate cut gave little cheer to markets, with the currency actually falling 0.3%, the highest decline in the last five rate cuts starting January 2015 (see Figure 7). We note that the INR tends to respond positively to: a) in-between policy meeting rate cuts; and b) cuts of more than 25bps compared to an expected 25bps cut during a regular policy meeting.

With the April CPI moderating to within the RBI’s

implicit January 2017 target of 5% and the Indian Met Department’s predictions of above-normal monsoon this year, markets are already pricing in another 25bps of cut in H2 2016. If the RBI chooses to act later this year, the effect on INR could well

follow April’s example.
INR’s fortunes have been closely tied to the local

equity market since 2015 (see Figure 5). Given the influence that foreign equity flows have on the INR, this is not that surprising. Hence, this suggests that there will be added sensitivity of the INR to underlying domestic growth prospects, not to mention general global market risk sentiment.

FIGURE 5. INR AND SENSEX MOVING IN LINE

30000 29000 28000 27000 26000 25000 24000 23000 22000
61

62

63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

FIGURE 7. INR’S POSITIVE REACTION TO RATE CUTS

  • Jan 15
  • Apr 15
  • Jul 15
  • Oct 15
  • Jan 16
  • Apr 16

HAS ITS LIMITS

  • SENSEX (LHS)
  • USD/INR (inverse, RHS)

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Research

Notwithstanding the solid headline GDP growth figure of 7.3% for Q4 2015, there are signs that activity is slowing down. The Business Cycle Indicator has been trending lower, and the most recent PMI unwound some of the recent increases (see Figure 6). Though a positive step towards medium term growth, the passage of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code in the Lower House or Lok Sabha on 5 May will have little immediate effect in alleviating some of the headwinds to growth from high non-performing loans in the banking system.

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ

FX Insight / 6 May 2016 / 3 of 5

REFORMS COMING?

Although this increases associated risks to volatility or liquidity, it will likely be short-lived in our view.
Another downside risk to the INR is the slow pace of

reforms. The second half of the Budget session of Parliament resumed on 25 April. Our economists are hopeful that the GST Bill can clear the main hurdle in 2016 and get it passed by the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament). But even then, they see its rollout as likely only in 2017 as half of the 29 state assemblies need to ratify the bill for it to be fully functional.

FIGURE 9. RBI’S PRDUENT POLICY IN DEALING WITH FCNR SWAPS DUE FOR MATURITY LATER IN 2016

40

30

20 10
0

The Modi government’s ability to push such big

reforms through will be important for investor sentiment towards India.

-10 -20 Aug-2008

EXTERNAL VULNERABILITIES HAVE DIMINISHED

  • Feb-2010
  • Aug-2011
  • Feb-2013
  • Aug-2014
  • Feb-2016

Net forward book

One thing we should not lose sight of is the fact that

India’s fundamentals have improved in recent years.

The trade deficit has narrowed on the back of the fall in oil prices (see Figure 8), helping to reduce the current account deficit from 5% of GDP in 2012 to 1.1% in 2015. Importantly, thanks to a pick-up in net FDI, India now runs a basic balance surplus, making it less vulnerable. In addition, the RBI has built up its FX reserves and is in a good position to smooth out volatility in the INR. Our estimate puts India as having the best reserve adequacy in emerging Asia.

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ

BUT INR ON THE RICH SIDE

Looking at various measures of INR’s real effective

exchange rate (REER), the currency remains richly valued, though off its highs. An improved external position and bold reforms, if undertaken, could sustain the INR REER at current levels for longer. But in our view, domestic prospects will not be strong enough to prevent a further adjustment to the REER towards its long-term average once the US Federal Reserve resumes its policy normalisation. Hence, we maintain our year-end USD/INR forecast at 68.5.

FIGURE 8. IMPROVING TRADE BALANCE
FIGURE 10. INR REER ABOVE THEIR LONG TERM AVERAGES

  • 5
  • 0

20
0
15
40
INR expensive

-5

10
5

60

-10 -15 -20 -25
80 100 120 140 160

0

-5
-10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

INR cheap
-15
Trade balance (USD bn, LHS) Oil price adv 3 mths (USD/bbl, RHS, inverse)

  • 04
  • 05
  • 06
  • 07
  • 08
  • 09
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12
  • 13
  • 14
  • 15
  • 16

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ

  • BIS REER
  • RBI 36 currency REER
  • RBI 6 currency REER

Another example of the RBI’s prudent policy is in building a substantial forwards buffer since 2014 to curtail any currency risks arising from FCNR (foreign currency non-resident) deposits which are due to mature between September and November 2016.

The RBI’s intervention in the forward book has

sharply reduced after it ensured that it has the maturing FCNR swaps totalling USD32-34bn fully covered by its forwards purchases (see Figure 9).

Sources: BIS, RBI, Bloomberg, ANZ Research

Khoon Goh
Senior FX Strategist

[email protected]
+65 6681 8933

Rini Sen
FX Strategist

[email protected]
+91 8039527906

However, the RBI noted in its press release on 13 April that due to some maturity mismatch between the forwards and the maturing swaps, there could be

“significant accretions initially to be followed by depletions of more or less similar magnitude” in

reserves between September and November.

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    RNI NO.: DELENG/2005/15351 millenniumpost.in REGD. NO.: DL(S)-01/3420/2018-20 PUBLISHED FROM DELHI & KOLKATA VOL. 13, ISSUE 194 | Saturday, 14 July 2018 | New Delhi | Pages 16 | Rs 3.00 NO HALF TRUTHS qNIFTY 11,018.90 (-4.30) qSENSEX 36,541.63 (-6.78) pDOW JONES 25,021.12 (+96.23) pNASDAQ 7842.81 (+18.90) pRUPEE/DOLLAR 68.53 (+0.04) pRUPEE/EURO 79.92 (+0.03) qGOLD/10GM 31,115 (-95.00) 1SILVER/K 40,030 (-0.00) SHOWERS ‘S-400 MISSILE DEAL HEADSCARVED PRIYANKA SUBMERGE WITH RUSSIA TO GO MALAYSIAN GIRL WOWS LOVES THE IDEA SEVERAL PARTS AHEAD DESPITE US WITH FREESTYLE OF GETTING OF DELHI PG4 SANCTIONS’ PG5 FOOTBALL SKILLS PG10 MARRIED PG15 Nawaz Sharif arrested TOP COURT ON I&B’s PROPOSED SOCIAL MEDIA HUB ‘India-US 2+2 strategic at Lahore airport 90 killed in poll violence Monitoring WhatsApp is like dialogue in September’ QUETTA: Former Pak- MPOST BUREAU istan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his NEW DELHI: The first 2+2 daughter Maryam, sen- creating surveillance state: SC India-US strategic dialogue, tenced to jail for corrup- deferred at the last minute last tion, were arrested within month, will now take place in minutes of landing at MPOST BUREAU The counsel for Moitra had said the first week of September, Lahore airport on Friday Highlights that the government is trying to Defence Minister Nirmala night. They are expected NEW DELHI: The Supreme Court » The govt wants to tap monitor the social media content of Sitharaman said on Friday, to be flown to Rawalpindi.
  • Naked Power: the Phallus As an Apotropaic Symbol in the Images and Texts of Roman Italy

    Naked Power: the Phallus As an Apotropaic Symbol in the Images and Texts of Roman Italy

    University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Undergraduate Humanities Forum 2005-6: Word Penn Humanities Forum Undergraduate & Image Research Fellows 4-1-2006 Naked Power: The Phallus as an Apotropaic Symbol in the Images and Texts of Roman Italy Claudia Moser University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/uhf_2006 Part of the Classics Commons Moser, Claudia, "Naked Power: The Phallus as an Apotropaic Symbol in the Images and Texts of Roman Italy" (2006). Undergraduate Humanities Forum 2005-6: Word & Image. 11. https://repository.upenn.edu/uhf_2006/11 2005-2006 Penn Humanities Forum on Word & Image, Undergraduate Mellon Research Fellows. URL: http://humanities.sas.upenn.edu/05-06/mellon_uhf.shtml This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/uhf_2006/11 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Naked Power: The Phallus as an Apotropaic Symbol in the Images and Texts of Roman Italy Abstract Representations of the phallus abound in both the art and the literature of the first-century A.D. Roman world. On frescoes in both private homes and public buildings, on amulets, statues, etchings, tripods, drinking cups and vases, exaggerated phallic images, these purportedly apotropaic symbols protect the inhabitant, the passerby, the wearer, the user from outside evil. The contemporary Latin literature, Roman satire and elegy in particular (Catullus, Martial, Juvenal, Horace, Tibullus), and the Priapea, a collection of poems about the phallic god Priapus, offer descriptions of the phallus and its functions that both coincide with and differ from the material examples. This paper will investigate these correspondences and discrepancies between verbal and artistic representation, and, in particular, what these similarities and inconsistencies reveal about the public function of this private imagery in the contemporary culture of ancient Roman Italy.
  • FX INSIGHT 17 March 2014

    FX INSIGHT 17 March 2014

    ANZ RESEARCH FX INSIGHT 17 March 2014 INR: 24 WEDDINGS AND AN ELECTION Historically, the INR tends to show significant inflation and improvement in the current account are opposing directional trends before and during the no doubt also providing support to the currency. election period. FIGURE 1. OUTPERFORMANCE OF INDIAN CURRENCY Coincidentally, the election period for this year AND EQUITIES (%-PT CUMULATIVE DIFFERENCE) overlaps into May, a month where the INR has 8 shown a seasonal tendency to depreciate, 7 associated with May’s peak Indian wedding 6 season. 5 4 This year, there will be a rare coincidence of a 3 high number of auspicious wedding dates (24 in 2 total) over a two month period, exacerbating the 1 0 May seasonal effects. -1 Hence, we see scope for increased INR volatility in -2 1 Jan 11 Jan 21 Jan 31 Jan 10 Feb 20 Feb 2 Mar 12 Mar the coming months, and prefer buying volatility INR vs rest of Asian currencies Sensex vs MSCI Asia ex Japan Index rather than taking an outright currency exposure. Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research We recommend buying a 3m USD/INR ATMF straddle, at 10.8% volatility (forward reference Rupee strength heading into the election is not 62.42). We target 13.3% with stop-loss at 10.2%. unusual. Indeed, contrary to popular perception, we find that INR tends to rally more often than not in the lead-up to the voting period. In Figure 2, we THE ELECTION RUN-UP RALLY… show how INR has performed against the USD, and India’s general election to elect the 16th Lok Sabha also relative to other Asian currencies during will be held from 7 April to 12 May, with the results different stages of the election period.
  • Bible and Religion, Fine Arts, Math and Science 1

    Bible and Religion, Fine Arts, Math and Science 1

    constant0704final.qxd 8/4/2004 2:37 PM Page 2 By John P. Campbell Campbell’s High School/College Quiz Book Campbell’s Potpourri I of Quiz Bowl Questions Campbell’s Potpourri II of Quiz Bowl Questions Campbell’s Middle School Quiz Book #1 Campbell’s Potpourri III of Quiz Bowl Questions Campbell’s Middle School Quiz Book #2 Campbell’s Elementary School Quiz Book #1 Campbell’s 2001 Quiz Questions Campbell’s Potpourri IV of Quiz Bowl Questions Campbell’s Middle School Quiz Book #3 The 500 Famous Quotations Quiz Book Campbell’s 2002 Quiz Questions Campbell’s 210 Lightning Rounds Campbell’s 175 Lightning Rounds Campbell’s 2003 Quiz Questions Campbell’s 211 Lightning Rounds OmniscienceTM: The Basic Game of Knowledge in Book Form Campbell’s 2004 Quiz Questions Campbell’s 212 Lightning Rounds Campbell’s Elementary School Quiz Book #2 Campbell’s 176 Lightning Rounds Campbell’s 213 Lightning Rounds Campbell’s Potpourri V of Quiz Bowl Questions Campbell’s Mastering the Myths in a Giant Nutshell Quiz Book Campbell’s 3001 Quiz Questions Campbell’s 2701 Quiz Questions Campbell’s Quiz Book on Explorations and U.S. History to 1865 Campbell’s Accent Cubed: Humanities, Math, and Science Campbell’s 2501 Quiz Questions Campbell’s Accent on the Alphabet Quiz Book Campbell’s U.S. History 1866 to 1960 Quiz Book Campbell’s 177 Lightning Rounds Campbell’s 214 Lightning Rounds Campbell’s Potpourri VI of Quiz Bowl Questions Campbell’s Middle School Quiz Book #4 Campbell’s 2005 Quiz Questions Campbell’s High School/College Book of Lists constant0704final.qxd 8/4/2004 2:37 PM Page 3 CAMPBELL’S CONSTANT QUIZ COMPANION: THE MIDDLE/HIGH SCHOOL BOOK OF LISTS, TERMS, AND QUESTIONS REVISED AND EXPANDED EDITION JOHN P.
  • A Performance Genealogy of "Etchings of Debutantes" Melanie A

    A Performance Genealogy of "Etchings of Debutantes" Melanie A

    Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School 2004 A performance genealogy of "Etchings of Debutantes" Melanie A. Kitchens Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Communication Commons Recommended Citation Kitchens, Melanie A., "A performance genealogy of "Etchings of Debutantes"" (2004). LSU Master's Theses. 4011. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4011 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A PERFORMANCE GENEALOGY OF ETCHINGS OF DEBUTANTES A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and the School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in The Department of Communication Studies by Melanie Kitchens B.A. Theatre, Georgia Southern University, 2001 December 2004 Acknowledgements My humblest thanks to all those involved in this process. Namely, Alice, Amy, Andy, Angela, Anne, Andrew, Bella, Ben, Bridgette, Brittany, Bruce, Carlton, Caroline, Carrie, Connie, Danielle, Danny, Dianne, Doris, Drew, Dan Paul, David, Don, Doug, Dudley, Eric, Gary, Ginger, Gretchen, Holly, Ivy, Jane, Jessica, Jim, Jimbo, Jim, Joan, Joe, Joey, Joseph, Jon, Josh, Justin, Kristen, Lisa, Linda, Mabel, Madison, Maggie, Marie, Mary Grace, Michael, Miles, Miron, Missy, Molly, Nancy, Necie, Nick, Odessa, Pam, Patti, Ralph, Rob, Ruth, Sarah, Scott, Suzanna, Tom, Tracy, Trish, and Tyler.
  • Psychological Disorders

    Psychological Disorders

    Psychological Disorders OUTLINE OF RESOURCES Introducing Psychological Disorders Lecture/Discussion Topic: Using Case Studies to Teach Psyhological Disorders (p. 917) Student Project: Diagnosing a “Star” (p. 918) Feature Films and TV: Introducing Psychological Disorders (p. 917) Perspectives on Psychological Disorders Defining Psychological Disorders Lecture/Discussion Topic/Lecture Break: The Self-Diagnosis Phenomenon (p. 918) NEW Classroom Exercises: Introducing Psychological Disorders (p. 919) Defining Psychological Disorder (p. 920) Student Project: Encounters With a “Mentally Ill” Person (p. 920) Student Projects/Classroom Exercises: Adult ADHD Screening Test (p. 920) Normality and the Sexes (p. 921) Worth Video Anthology: ADHD and the Family* Understanding Psychological Disorders Lecture/Discussion Topics: Tourette Syndrome (p. 921) UPDATED Culture-Bound Disorders (p. 922) Classroom Exercise: Multiple Causation (p. 922) Classifying Psychological Disorders Lecture/Discussion Topic: Mental Health as Flourishing (p. 924) Lecture/Discussion Topic/Lecture Break: Revising the DSM (p. 923) NEW Classroom Exercise: The Flourishing Scale (p. 925) NEW Worth Video Anthology: Gender Identity Disorder* PsychSim 5: Mystery Client (p. 925) (or could be used at the end of the psychological disorders discussion) Labeling Psychological Disorders Classroom Exercise: The Effects of Labeling (p. 925) Feature Film: In Cold Blood (p. 925) Worth Video Anthology: Postpartum Psychosis: The Case of Andrea Yates* Anxiety Disorders Classroom Exercise: Penn State Worry Questionnaire (p. 926) Worth Video Anthology: Anxiety Disorders* NEW Three Anxiety Disorders* Experiencing Anxiety* * Titles in the Worth Video Anthology are not described within the core resource unit. They are listed, with running times, in the Lecture Guides and described in detail in their Faculty Guide, which is available at www.worthpublishers.com/mediaroom.