Vulnerability Assessment of Sagebrush Ecosystems: Four Corners and Upper Rio Grande Regions of The

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Vulnerability Assessment of Sagebrush Ecosystems: Four Corners and Upper Rio Grande Regions of The Vulnerability Assessment of Sagebrush Ecosystems: Four Corners and Upper Rio Grande Regions of the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative Prepared by Mary I. Williams and Megan M. Friggens United States Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Albuquerque, New Mexico December 29, 2017 1 Cover Photo Credit: Mary Williams, 2010 Mary Williams is an Ecologist with the Nez Perce Tribe, Lapwai, ID Megan Friggens is a Research Ecologist with the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station This analysis was prepared in partial fulfillment of agreements between Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS) and the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SRLCC: FWS #15-IA-011221632-164 and BOR #15-IA-11221632-163). This is one in a series of four assessments produced for focal landscapes within the SRLCC. Data associated with this assessment can be found at the SRLCC Conservation Planning Atlas web portal: https://srlcc.databasin.org Acknowledgements: Kristin Peltz, USFS, contributed to early drafts of this report. Stephanie Mueller, Northern Arizona University, processed many of the spatial datasets. We thank the participants of the 2016 and 2017 Adaptation Forum’s held in Durango, CO, and Albuquerque and Taos, NM. For further questions or comments, contact: [email protected] 2 Contents Purpose........................................................................................................................................ 6 Background .................................................................................................................................. 7 Focal Resources and Landscapes: ............................................................................................ 7 Vulnerability Assessments: ...................................................................................................... 9 Co-producing Vulnerability Assessments for the SRLCC: Adaptation Forums ...................... 10 I. Literature and Status Review of Focal Resources: Sagebrush Ecosystems............................ 12 Geographic Focus .................................................................................................................. 12 Current status and distribution of resources ........................................................................ 12 Issues and Threats for Sagebrush Ecosystems in the Four Corners and Upper Rio Grande . 17 BOX 4. RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE CONCEPTS .................................................................. 22 Ongoing Activities Regarding Sagebrush Management in the Four Corners and Upper Rio Grande Focal Areas ................................................................................................................ 22 II. Critical Attributes for Measuring Sagebrush Vulnerability ................................................... 25 Landscape Scale ..................................................................................................................... 25 Indicators of desirable condition ........................................................................................... 26 Critical components of sagebrush ecosystems ..................................................................... 27 III. Vulnerability Assessment of Focal Resources: Sagebrush Ecosystems ............................... 29 Methodological approach ..................................................................................................... 29 Indicator variables ................................................................................................................. 32 IV. Results .................................................................................................................................. 47 V. Discussion and Conclusions .................................................................................................. 48 Comparison of Upper Rio Grande and Four Corners Focal Areas ......................................... 49 Core Area Analysis ................................................................................................................. 50 Missing Data and other uncertainties ................................................................................... 51 Literature Cited ......................................................................................................................... 60 Vulnerability Assessment of Sagebrush Ecosystems: Four Corners and Upper Rio Grande Regions of the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative ................................. 73 Appendix A. Landscape Analysis: Sagebrush Ecosystems ......................................................... 73 Methods ................................................................................................................................. 73 Sagebrush Core Area Indicator .............................................................................................. 73 3 4 Abbreviations: AS Adaptation Strategy BLM Bureau of Land Management CNHP Colorado Natural Heritage Program FS Forest Service IAP Intermountain Adaptation Partners LCD Landscape Conservation Design NCCSC North Central Climate Science Center SRLCC Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative VA Vulnerability Assessment WWA Western Waters Association 5 Purpose A major challenge of managing rapidly changing landscapes is translating broad concepts into specific, tangible actions. Vulnerability assessments are a key step toward identifying effective management strategies and prioritizing specific management actions to conserve and restore natural resources. As part of the effort to utilize landscape conservation planning and design for the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SRLCC), the RMRS developed a vulnerability assessment approach that: 1) covers a diverse set of focal resource targets; 2) incorporates input from science and working group members and other stakeholders; 3) compliments the overarching principles guiding science and management planning within the LCCs (Box 1). Our approach borrows from other successful assessments strategies and used adaptation forums to facilitate stakeholder input. As part of this work, RMRS has produced a series of state of knowledge syntheses and developed spatially explicit vulnerability assessment products including maps, datasets and training materials. It is the objective of this project that these products provide the SRLCC stakeholders with the capacity to identify shared conservation priorities and goals. All data and associated webinar and workshop information is available online to facilitate additional analyses and assessments identified by users. The following report contains the synthesis and analysis component of this project. In the first half of this report, you will find a review of background information and ongoing activities for sagebrush ecosystems within two SRLCC focal areas: The Four Corners and Upper Rio Grande (see https://southernrockieslcc.org/geographical-areas for more information). The second half of this report presents the methods and results of our vulnerability assessment. BOX 1. COORDINATING WITH THE LCC STRATEGIC PLAN The vulnerability assessment process and its products contribute to multiple objectives outlined within the LCC Network Strategic Plan. 1. Vulnerability Assessments identify the relative vulnerability of focal targets to climate change thereby providing mechanisms for prioritizing science and management needs. 2. When conducted for multiple time periods or climate scenarios, measures of vulnerability may also identify urgency. 3. Vulnerability Assessments identify how and why resources may be vulnerable to climate change thereby providing starting points for management planning, conservation, and monitoring. 4. Vulnerability Assessments consider measures of uncertainty and identify areas needing additional research. 6 Background In 2016, the Rocky Mountain Research Station began to develop vulnerability assessment products for SRLCC focal resources. The objectives of the vulnerability assessment project were multiple: 1. Summarize current status, potential climate change impacts, and other issues facing SRLCC Focal Resources in the Upper Rio Grande and Four Corners Geographic Focus Areas. 2. Identify climate change impacts and other issues facing natural and cultural resources in the southern tier of SRLCC (includes the Upper Rio Grande and Four Corners Geographic Focus Areas). 3. Develop a Vulnerability Assessment approach to allow integration with other assessments and Landscape Conservation Design (LCD) efforts of BLM, FS, CNHP and other partners. 4. Apply Vulnerability Assessment approach to quantify vulnerability of SRLCC Focal Resources and Geographic Focus Area select targets. Focal Resources and Landscapes: Prior to the involvement of RMRS, SRLCC staff and steering committee members identified five focal resources, native fish, stream flow, elk and mule deer, sagebrush ecosystems, and cultural resources, and three focal landscapes, the Green River Basin, the Four Corners, and the Upper Rio Grande (https://southernrockieslcc.org/geographical-areas). The assessments conducted by RMRS regard focal resources in the Four Corners and Upper Rio Grande (Figure 1). After receiving feedback from a series of Adaptation Forums in 2016 (see below), we refined the focal resources targets to include riparian areas and pinyon-juniper habitats. We also dropped cultural resources from the current effort (now addressed
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