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Shock to the System the Stunning Reverses the Congress Suffered in the Assembly Elections Complete the Erosion of Its Political Authority

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Shock to the System the Stunning Reverses the Congress Suffered in the Assembly Elections Complete the Erosion of Its Political Authority FRONTLINEAPRIL 6, 2012 WWW.FRONTLINE.IN INDIA’S NATIONAL MAGAZINE RS.25 ESSAY POLITICS TRAVEL BOROBUDUR UNION BUDGET 2012-13 Islamism & democracy 43 Ode to harmony 64 The price of reform 126 Shock to the system The stunning reverses the Congress suffered in the Assembly elections complete the erosion of its political authority. With the BJP not in a position to offer a credible alternative, it is resurgence time for regional forces VOLUME 29 NUMBER 6 MARCH 24 - APRIL 6, 2012 ISSN 0970-1710 WWW.FRONTLINE.IN INSTITUTIONS COVER STORY Election shocks COLUMN AIIMS: Bhaskar Ghose: Dubious promotions 32 Assembly Elections 2012 announce a further Elections & beyond 93 weakening of the political authority of the R.K. Raghavan: MEDIA Logic of deviance 98 The arrest of Kazmi 36 Congress, which leads the UPA ruling at the Praful Bidwai: Karnataka: End of an illusion 103 Lawyers vs journalists 39 Centre. 4 THE STATES BOOKS 73 West Bengal: Maoist in the net 41 LETTERS 123 ESSAY UPDATE Islamism and democracy 43 Gorilla genome 60 WORLD AFFAIRS Russia: Putin’s progress 49 Syria: Reforms on track 53 Libya: Slipping into chaos 57 United Kingdom: On a witch-hunt 61 RELATED STORIES TRAVEL Interview: Punjab: Borobudur: Ode to harmony 64 Rajnath Singh 6 Bucking the trend 17 Uttar Pradesh: Interview: INTERVIEW Reverse sweep 8 Sukhbir Badal 18 Satya P. Mohanty: Interview: Whither identity Indian literature to world literature 85 Akhilesh Yadav 10 politics? 21 Uttarakhand: Goa: Verdict REPORTS In a cleft stick 13 for change 25 Misery of urban children 95 Interview: Manipur: HISTORY B.C. Khanduri 15 Clean sweep 28 Jinnah’s defence of a communist 100 ESSAY CONSERVATION The concepts of Islamism On the Cover Penance for Ganga 106 and democracy are Congress president Sonia Gandhi with inherently incompatible son Rahul Gandhi in New Delhi. CRICKET with each other at their PHOTOGRAPH: ATUL YADAV/PTI Rahul Dravid: core. 43 COVER DESIGN: U. UDAYA SHANKAR Purist & gentleman 108 TRAVEL Published by K. BALAJI, Kasturi Buildings, FOCUS: GUJARAT 859 & 860, Anna Salai, Chennai-600 002 and A ‘vibrant’ approach 112 Borobudur and Printed by P. Ranga Reddy at Kala Jyothi Food, fun and festivities 118 Prambanan, two temple Process Private Limited, Survey No. 185, complexes in Java, are Kondapur, Ranga Reddy District-500 133, UNION BUDGET victims of volcanic fury and Andhra Pradesh on behalf of Kasturi & Sons Ltd., Chennai-600 002. The price reform 126 yet retain their grace. 64 Losing direction 129 EDITOR: R. VIJAYA SANKAR (Editor responsible UNION BUDGET for selection of news under the PRB Act). All RAILWAY BUDGET India’s return to a phase of rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or Red signal 132 higher indirect tax revenues in part without written permission is prohibited. Interview: Vijaya Kanth, will impose disproportionately e-mail: [email protected] Financial Commissioner, larger burdens on the poorer Frontline is not responsible for the content of Railways 134 sections of society. 126 external Internet sites. FRONTLINE 3 Cover Story APRIL 6, 2012 ELECTION SHO Assembly Elections 2012 announce a further weakening of the political authority of the Congress, which leads the UPA at the Centre. BY VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN The outcome in Uttar Pradesh and Yadav, he would certainly try to force midterm Lok Sabha elections because the current political context Punjab will certainly embolden in the country’s most populous State would help the S.P. win the maximum number of parliamentary regional forces both outside and seats. Several UPA leaders, including those in the Tri- within the UPA to throw their namool Congress, felt Trivedi’s comments could well be attributed to his party. For, the Trinamool Con- political weight around. With the gress, too, is of the view that it can increase its number of seats in the Lok Sabha in the event of BJP on the decline, the stage is set midterm elections. “That will enhance its bargaining power with the Central government, whatever be its for new political combinations. composition. The party is apprehensive that facing the Lok Sabha elections as per the current schedule, RIGHT from the time the Election Commission in 2014, will not be advantageous since it would have of India initiated the electoral process in the five been in power in West Bengal for three years by then States of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and would obviously face some level of anti-incum- and Manipur in January, the 2012 Assembly elec- bency,” a Trinamool Congress leader told Frontline. tions were billed as a semi-final of the 2014 Lok Ironically, a few days later Trivedi found himself Sabha elections. In the event, the outcome has pro- duced a seemingly unexpected result: it seems to have advanced the date of the “final”. This has hap- pened essentially on account of three factors. First, the stunning reverses suffered by the Congress, espe- cially in the two big States of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, and the consequent shrinkage of its political authority in the national polity in general and, in particular, within the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), which it heads at the Centre. Secondly, the resurgence of regional forces such as the Samajwadi Party (S.P.) in Uttar Pradesh and the Akali Dal in Punjab, which in turn has given a fillip to the re- grouping and consolidation of regional parties in different parts of the country. Thirdly, the exploita- tion of this climate by the Trinamool Congress, the second largest party in the UPA, to launch its own political games and create problems for the Con- gress, both within the government and outside. The first signal of this problematic impact of the electoral outcome on the Congress started emerging even as the results were coming out. Dinesh Trivedi, Trinamool Congress Minister in the Union Cabinet, even commented that he anticipated midterm elec- tions sooner than later. He qualified his statement by adding that if he were S.P. chief Mulayam Singh VIJA VERMA/PTI 4 FRONTLINE APRIL 6, 2012 Political analyst Indra Bhushan Assembly election results. At the larger Singh pointed out that the March 6 level, the outcome points to a weak- results indicated that regional parties ening of the two mainstream national could significantly increase their parties, the Congress and the Bharati- CKS strength in Parliament if general elec- ya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP, too, tions were held soon. He also added suffered sharp reverses at the hands of that the prospects of a midterm poll regional forces, particularly in its one- were strengthened by the growing soli- time bastion of Uttar Pradesh. The saf- darity among the regional parties on fron party managed to hold on to pow- the issue of federalism, especially with er in Punjab in association with the regard to the opposition to the Nation- Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), but here, becoming a possible reason for a mid- al Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) too, its seat strength and vote share term election, when the Trinamool mooted by Union Home Minister P. dropped. However, the party scored a Congress’ supreme leader and West Chidambaram. Indra Bhushan Singh significant victory in Goa and min- Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Baner- is also of the view that going by the imised its anti-incumbency slump in jee took umbrage at the Railway Bud- current trend, avoiding a midterm Uttarakhand. Clearly, the trends in get presented by him. At the time of election will have its own unhappy Uttar Pradesh and Punjab as well as writing this, Prime Minister Manmo- consequences. “The government will the overall assertion of regional forces han Singh had apparently conceded continue to limp and drag itself, half bring no cheer to the principal opposi- Mamata Banerjee’s demand to drop paralysed by the controversies, corrup- tion. Already, several leaders of the Trivedi from the Union Cabinet, but it tion scandals and ineptitude as the BJP as well as the Sangh Parivar have still remains to be seen whether this leading party of the UPA and its Prime expressed doubts whether the saffron will really turn into a factor that can Minister are constantly forced to look party will be able to capture power at cause a midterm election. At any rate, over their shoulders at allies either de- the Centre in the next general the political context created by the As- railing or distorting its policies,” he elections. sembly elections remains. Regional pointed out. Put differently, the 2012 Assembly forces outside and within the UPA The problems for the Congress and elections have signified a combat be- have been strengthened by the results the UPA and the prospects of midterm tween two types of anti-incumbency: and they will now seek to throw their elections, however, are only part of the one against the prevailing government new political weight around. larger political and social impact of the in the respective States and the other R.V. MOORTHY BJP PRESIDENT NITIN Gadkari, flanked by Ananth Kumar (left) and Ravi Shanker Prasad, at a press conference in New Delhi on March 6. (Left) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi at a coordination committee meeting of the alliance on March 14. FRONTLINE 5 APRIL 6, 2012 against the Centre, which was per- ceived as the fulcrum of corruption, inefficiency and inflation. The electo- rate’s simple message was that they are unhappier with the Centre than with the State governments. This helped the BJP get some consolation victories, but not the kind of political upper hand that it hoped to gain. Commenting on the results, Orga- niser and Panchajanya,
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