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COMPANY NOTE Canvest Environmental Protection Group Company [1381.HK; HK$4.09; NOT RATED] – More Growth on the Way

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COMPANY NOTE Canvest Environmental Protection Group Company [1381.HK; HK$4.09; NOT RATED] – More Growth on the Way June 14, 2017 COMPANY NOTE Canvest Environmental Protection Group Company [1381.HK; HK$4.09; NOT RATED] – More growth on the way Analyst: Kelly Zou ([email protected]; Tel: (852) 3698 6319) Event: We visited Canvest Environmental Protection Group Company Canvest Environmental Protection Group Company (Canvest) on 13 June and had a discussion with mgmt regarding its latest business updates. Canvest is the 2nd largest waste-to-energy (WTE) provider 5.00 300 in Guangdong and the 11th largest in China in terms of daily municipal solid 4.50 250 waste (MSW) processing capacity. The Company enjoys competitive 4.00 200 advantages in Guangdong in terms of its established track record and WTE 3.50 150 technology. It is also seeking opportunities to expand into other regional markets in China. The latest company movements for its business expansion 3.00 100 in 1H17 include: 1) the further strengthening of its relationship with local 2.50 50 governments in Guangdong Province via entering into a strategic cooperation 2.00 0 agreements with BOC&UTRUST Private Equity Fund Management Jul-16 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jan-16 Jun-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Mar-16 Mar-17 Feb-16 Feb-17 Aug-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 May-17 (BOC&UTRUST) and Guangdong Finance Investment International, which May-16 has a business association with the People’s Government of Guangdong Turnover(HK$m, rhs) Price(HK$) Province; and 2) the issuance of 300m new shares to an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited (SIHL) in Q1. Market Cap: US$1,288m; Free Float: 40.7% HK$ m 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Positive demand outlook for the WTE industry in the 13th FYP: The Revenue (m) 794 1,185 1,654 2,351 2,557 NDRC issued the “Plan on Urban Household Waste Treatment Facilities Gross profit (m) 342 439 589 839 1,041 Construction for the 13th FYP” in December 2016, which stipulated the goal GPM (%) 43.1 37.1 35.6 35.7 40.7 of increasing the ratio of urban household waste treatment via incineration Operating profit (m) 297 381 547 732 902 OPM (%) 37.5 32.2 33.1 31.1 35.3 from 31% in 2015 to 54% in 2020. Guangdong Province has set an even Net profit (m) 191 272 400 554 690 higher standard for waste treatment by 2020, raising the WTE treatment NPM (%) 24.1 23.0 24.2 23.6 27.0 target from 18,400 tons/day in 2015 to 73,000 tons/day in 2020. In addition to EPS 0.13 0.14 0.20 0.24 0.30 the positive demand outlook for the WTE industry, the central government raised the standard for WTE capacity development. The NDRC announced ROE (%) 8.3 11.7 14.8 13.3 17.7 its “Opinion on the Enhancement of Urban Household Waste-to-Energy Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 Work”, which emphasizes the importance of 1) better site selection, 2) higher PER (x) 32.1 30.1 20.7 16.9 13.6 PBR (x) 2.7 3.5 3.1 2.2 2.4 standards for the construction of non-polluting incineration plants, 3) better coordination of project development, and 4) better management and Source: Bloomberg enhanced monitoring systems for WTE projects. Canvest, with its strong track Its strategic partnership with SIHL should help the Company to record and long years of experience in the WTE industry, should be a key expand in the Shanghai-centered Yangtze River Delta region. As beneficiary of growing WTE demand in China in the medium to long term. SIHL has very limited exposure to the WTE industry, Canvest should Sufficient WTE projects on hand to secure fast earnings growth in 2017- be able to take the lead in developing the WTE business in the region 2018E: Canvest enjoys a competitive advantage in the WTE industry in for both companies. Guangdong Province in terms of its established track record and technology. It achieved earnings growth of >40% p.a. in 2014-2016. The number of WTE Valuation: Canvest’s share price rose 18.2% in 2016, vs. a 3.2% rise plants it secured, announced or operates under management contract in the HSI in 2016. Its share price outperformance in 2016 was driven increased from 4 at the end of 2014 to 11 at the end of March 2017. The daily mainly by accelerating infrastructure investment in environment MSW processing capacity of these projects reaching 19,240 tons vs. 6,900 protection. Canvest’s share price outperformance of the HSI in March tons in 2014. Consensus estimates forecast that its earnings will grow at a and April 2017 was led by 1) its new share issuance to SIHL in late CAGR of >30% in 2016-2018E. For waste treatment and power sales February, and 2) IFC’s conversion of all the convertible bonds into revenue, we calculate that Canvest’s daily MSW processing and power equity holdings in Canvest in mid-March. Since then, the share price generation capacity will each grow at a CAGR of >30% in 2016-2018. has weakened because of market concern about China’s economic Canvest currently has 10 projects under construction or planned, with daily growth slowing down in 2H17 and likely slow progress of in business MSW processing capacity amounting to 10,140 tons, about the same level of cooperation between Canvest and SIHL. Currently, Canvest is the daily MSW processing capacity of its WTE plants currently in operation. trading at a 16.9x 2017E PER. Historically, the stock has traded at an We estimate that its construction revenue in 2017 will grow over 40% YoY. average 19.6x forward PER. The current valuation is not demanding, With further new WTE contract wins, we believe Canvest can continuously considering 1) Canvest can deliver over 40% earnings growth p.a. in deliver >30% construction earnings growth in 2018E. 2017-2018E, and 2) its strategic relationship with SIHL should bring Liaisons with Guangdong government investment entities and SIHL: more growth opportunities to Canvest outside Guangdong. The The strategic cooperation agreement with BOC&UTRUST and Guangdong Company deserves a valuation premium over large-cap Beijing Finance Investment should strengthen Canvest’s competitive edge in Enterprises Water (371 HK) and China Everbright (257 HK), as it is Guangdong Province. Canvest should be in a better position to benefit from able to deliver faster earnings growth upside with future new contract fast-growing demand of the WTE industry in Guangdong Province. wins due to its still small business scale. 1 COMPANY NOTE Canvest Environmental Protection Group Company [1381.HK; HK$4.09; NOT RATED] – More growth on the way Analyst: Kelly Zou ([email protected]; Tel: (852) 3698 6319) Figure 1: Canvest’s 2016 revenue mix Finance income from BOT arrangement , 2% Power sales, 31% Construction revenue from BOT projects, 51% Waste treatment fees, 15% Source: Company data, CGIS Research Figure 2: Canvest’s WTE projects secured, announced or under management agreement at end-March 2017 Daily MSW Installed power processing generation Business Waste treatment Location Name Status capacity (ton) capacity (MW) model Concession period fee (Rmb/ton) Dongguan Eco-Tech WTE plant-phase 1 In operation 1,800 36 BOO na 110 Dongguan Eco-Tech WTE plant-phase 2 In operation 1,500 50 BOO na 110 Dongguan Kewei WTE plant In operation 1,800 30 BOO na 110 Dongguan China Scivest WTE plant-phase 1 In operation 1,800 42 BOT 24 years from 10 Dec 110 2004 to 30 Nov 2028) Dongguan China Scivest WTE plant-phase 2 Under construction 1,200 na BOT na 110 Zhanjiang Zhanjiang WTE plant In operation 1,500 30 BOT 28 years(from 18 Apr 82 2013 to 17 Apr 2041) Qingyuan Qinyuan WTE plant Planning 2,500 na BOT 30 years after passing 50 the environmental impact assessment Zhongshan Zhongshan WTE plant Under construction 1,040 24 Construction and operation by mgmt agreement Lufeng Lufeng WTE plant Planning 1,600 39 BOT 30 years 91.5 Xinyi Xinyi WTE plant Planning 750 15 BOT 30 years 79 Laibin Laibin WTE plant-phase 1 Upgrade 1,000 24 BOT Until Apr 2042 95 Laibin Laibin WTE plant-phase 2 Planning 500 na BOT Until Apr 2042 95 Beiliu Beiliu WTE plant-phase 1 Under construction 700 na BOT 30 years commencing 83 from the date of formal commissioning Beiliu Beiliu WTE plant-phase 2 Planning 350 na BOT 30 years commencing 83 from the date of formal commissioning Xingyi Xingyi WTE plant-phase 1 In operation 700 12 BOT 30 years commencing 80 from the date of formal commissioning Xingyi Xingyi WTE plant-phase 2 Under construction 500 12 BOT 30 years commencing 80 from the date of formal commissioning Total 19,240 Source: Company data, CGIS Research 2 COMPANY NOTE Canvest Environmental Protection Group Company [1381.HK; HK$4.09; NOT RATED] – More growth on the way Analyst: Kelly Zou ([email protected]; Tel: (852) 3698 6319) Figure 3: Canvest’s expected MSW processing capacity growth projection (tons) 30,000 Total 19,240 25,000 Total 18,340 20,000 2,500 4,200 Total 12,400 5,700 1,040 15,000 1,040 9,700 1,040 10,000 Total 6,600 7,000 1,040 15,700 12,500 14,000 5,000 3,300 7,600 5,400 3,000 3,600 0 1,200 2007 2011 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 In operation By mgmt contract Secured To be secured Source: Company, CGIS Research Figure 4: Canvest’s shareholder structure Other IFC SIHL (363 HK)- shareholders related entities 21.9% 5.2% 53.4% 4.9% 14.5% Canvest Source: Company, CGIS Research 3 COMPANY NOTE Canvest Environmental Protection Group Company [1381.HK; HK$4.09; NOT RATED] – More growth on the way Analyst: Kelly Zou ([email protected]; Tel: (852) 3698 6319) Figure 5: Peer comparison Ticker Mkt cap Price PER EPS growth PEG P/Bk Dividend yield ROE US$ m (lc) 2016 2017E 2018E 2016 2017E 2018E 2017E 2016 2017E 2018E 2016 2017E 2018E 2016 2017E 2018E H-share environment project companies Beijing Enterprises Water 371 HK
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